A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

The guy is going to be a pitcher in 2025, and was arguably the best pitcher in baseball.

 

He's Ohtani, just the name alone is worth millions of dollars.

 

Ohtani is getting 500 million.

 

I think you're underestimating his injury issues.

 

But we'll see.

[Bellhorn04]

The guy ended the season with a possible second Tommy John surgery in his future, AND an oblique injury. I don't care how good you are, these are concerning injuries.

 

We're watching Mike Trout's body fall apart before our eyes, after all.

[Hugh2]

I think you're underestimating his injury issues.

 

But we'll see.

 

I think you're vastly underestimating how much he will still make because he is literally a once-in-a-100-year talent. Top-tier pitchers, even with MASSIVE concerns are still get paid 30 million plus a year. DeGrome, Rodon etc etc etc. Also, they had an extensive history of multiple injuries. COnveibly Ohtani comes back fine and pitches like an ACE for another 5-6 years+

 

If put 30 executives in a room and have them bid on Ohtani, someone is throwing him 500, and if he doesn't get 500 it's because he got like 485 with an opt out after 3 years or something.

 

I will literally wager my first born children on Ohtani making bank.

[Bellhorn04]

I think you're vastly underestimating how much he will still make because he is literally a once-in-a-100-year talent. Top-tier pitchers, even with MASSIVE concerns are still get paid 30 million plus a year. DeGrome, Rodon etc etc etc. Also, they had an extensive history of multiple injuries. COnveibly Ohtani comes back fine and pitches like an ACE for another 5-6 years+

 

Right, and deGrom and Rodon are now squarely in the "cautionary tale" file.

[Hugh2]

Right, and deGrom and Rodon are now squarely in the "cautionary tale" file.

 

And, they were much bigger injury risks before their seasons this year with multiple injuries where Ohtani has had one surgery, and in todays game it's become assumed that every starting pitcher who pitches long enough is going to have major surgery at some point. Obviously, I'm sure this is not 100% true but the sentiment is. Just because Ohtani got hurt doesn't mean his value from a pitcher went down from 250 million to 0. Factor in his bat, and marketable name and $500 million seems like a no brainer.

[Maxbialystock]

Talk of Ohtani is silly because, as moonslav explained, he's a very bad fit for the Sox, who need pitching and righty bats and don't need another DH.

[Bellhorn04]

And, they were much bigger injury risks before their seasons this year with multiple injuries where Ohtani has had one surgery, and in todays game it's become assumed that every starting pitcher who pitches long enough is going to have major surgery at some point. Obviously, I'm sure this is not 100% true but the sentiment is. Just because Ohtani got hurt doesn't mean his value from a pitcher went down from 250 million to 0. Factor in his bat, and marketable name and $500 million seems like a no brainer.

 

I'm not going to bet any children on it, but my prediction is this:

 

Ohtani will NOT get a GUARANTEED $500 million.

 

He might get a contract that has the POTENTIAL to reach $500 million IF he successfully triggers vesting option years, or if he doesn't trigger injury clauses.

[Hugh2]

I'm not going to bet any children on it, but my prediction is this:

 

Ohtani will NOT get a GUARANTEED $500 million.

 

He might get a contract that has the POTENTIAL to reach $500 million IF he successfully triggers vesting option years, or if he doesn't trigger injury clauses.

 

This is baseball not football. Most of the money is guaranteed. We can leave the children out of it but I’ll challenge you on this friendly gamble.

[Bellhorn04]

This is baseball not football. Most of the money is guaranteed. We can leave the children out of it but I’ll challenge you on this friendly gamble.

 

Done. That's me against 2 Hughs.

 

My middle name in real life is Hugh BTW.

[Hugh2]

Talk of Ohtani is silly because, as moonslav explained, he's a very bad fit for the Sox, who need pitching and righty bats and don't need another DH.

 

He's not a great fit for 2024, but he's a good fit long term. There's no way the best player in baseball can't fit on your team.

 

Also, the argument against Ohtani that Moon makes (and I have too recently) is that he's a lefty and we need a righty bat to replace Turner as DH.

 

OKAY,but he's still OHTANI, he still hits LHP as good if not better than most RHB.

 

Turner had a 2023/career OPS vs. LHP of .900/.826

VS. Ohtani of .898/.831

 

Ohtani is literally just as good as Turner vs. LHP so he does replace him, and then he's a massive upgrade from the left side.

 

I'm not for Ohtani, but I'm not going to pretend like there isn't a massive argument for signing him. He makes sense.

[Hugh2]

Done. That's me against 2 Hughs.

 

My middle name in real life is Hugh BTW.

 

Yeah, my phone and desktop computer all log me in automatically and I always forget I have the two accounts. I mean hey, it's not exactly like I'm trying to hide with names like that.

 

But congratulations on having an amazingly awesome middle name, you just became my favorite poster not first named Hugh.

[moonslav59]

He's not a great fit for 2024, but he's a good fit long term. There's no way the best player in baseball can't fit on your team.

 

Also, the argument against Ohtani that Moon makes (and I have too recently) is that he's a lefty and we need a righty bat to replace Turner as DH.

 

OKAY,but he's still OHTANI, he still hits LHP as good if not better than most RHB.

 

Turner had a 2023/career OPS vs. LHP of .900/.826

VS. Ohtani of .898/.831

 

Ohtani is literally just as good as Turner vs. LHP so he does replace him, and then he's a massive upgrade from the left side.

 

I'm not for Ohtani, but I'm not going to pretend like there isn't a massive argument for signing him. He makes sense.

 

I am always thinking in terms of money spent on player A means less is spent on player B and C and ....

 

I never assume the budget is limitless.

 

Sure, I'd love Ohtani on the roster, but I'd rather have Yamamoto + Montgomery.

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah, my phone and desktop computer all log me in automatically and I always forget I have the two accounts. I mean hey, it's not exactly like I'm trying to hide with names like that.

 

But congratulations on having an amazingly awesome middle name, you just became my favorite poster not first named Hugh.

 

I have 75% Scottish blood. My mother's maiden name was Montgomerie, and her brother's name was Hugh. Hugh had sons named Stewart and Duff. That's hardcore Scottish.

[sk7326]

The guy is going to be a pitcher in 2025, and was arguably the best pitcher in baseball.

 

He's Ohtani, just the name alone is worth millions of dollars.

 

Ohtani is getting 500 million.

 

There is a pretty good case for Ohtani being MVP this year on his bat alone, despite missing the final month.

[Hugh2]

I have 75% Scottish blood. My mother's maiden name was Montgomerie, and her brother's name was Hugh. Hugh had sons named Stewart and Duff. That's hardcore Scottish.

 

I'm like 1/4 Scottish myself (along with the rest of Europe in there). I'm actually very proud of that fact.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, my phone and desktop computer all log me in automatically and I always forget I have the two accounts. I mean hey, it's not exactly like I'm trying to hide with names like that.

 

But congratulations on having an amazingly awesome middle name, you just became my favorite poster not first named Hugh.

 

"This is getting out of hand! Now there are two of them?!?!"

[mvp 78]

I thought the only person with multiple accounts was UN (Dutchy/Imperial).

 

[dgalehouse]

Time for everyone to come clean. I sometimes post under the name " notin."

[Hugh2]

Time for everyone to come clean. I sometimes post under the name " notin."

 

I nominate this post for comment of the day

[harmony]

Well they shouldn’t sign a 1b. But Devers and Casas are both among the worst at their positions.

 

Chapman will unfortunately require a larger deal than the Sox should spend upgrading the infield. After him the best defensive 3b on the market is probably Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who should only be signed as a bench player.

 

They probably simply go with Urias, who does have some right-handed pop at 2b. Whether they offer arbitration or non-tender him and try to re-sign him for less remains to be seen…

Does the MLB Trade Rumors list of projected arbitration salaries for the Red Sox have any non-tender candidates?

 

Red Sox (5)

 

Nick Pivetta (5.166): $6.9MM

Alex Verdugo (5.078): $9.2MM

Luis Urias (4.098): $4.7MM

Reese McGuire (4.027): $1.7MM

John Schreiber (3.027): $1.3MM

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2024.html

[Hugh2]

Does the MLB Trade Rumors list of projected arbitration salaries for the Red Sox have any non-tender candidates?

 

Red Sox (5)

 

Nick Pivetta (5.166): $6.9MM

Alex Verdugo (5.078): $9.2MM

Luis Urias (4.098): $4.7MM

Reese McGuire (4.027): $1.7MM

John Schreiber (3.027): $1.3MM

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2024.html

 

I’d say no. Maybe Urias, but given the market I think there’s a real possibility the Sox go with a Valdez/Urias platoon

[notin]

I’d say no. Maybe Urias, but given the market I think there’s a real possibility the Sox go with a Valdez/Urias platoon

 

Hopefully not. Valdez couldn’t catch a cold of he was naked in Norway. (I do like that line for bad defense, but I will work on a newer one.)

[dgalehouse]

Hopefully not. Valdez couldn’t catch a cold of he was naked in Norway. (I do like that line for bad defense, but I will work on a newer one.)

 

That auto correct is going to get you in trouble. # proof read

[moonslav59]

I’d say no. Maybe Urias, but given the market I think there’s a real possibility the Sox go with a Valdez/Urias platoon

 

It's interesting to think we will likely go with what we have at 2B for 2024. When you look at how bad they played, I'm not sure it's a good idea. The Urias arb estimate seems like a lot, but the guy does have some proof he can hit well for 2 years in a row.

 

Our 1st and 5th leaders in innings at 2B are gone:

442 Arroyo

357 EValdez

209 Urias (44 innings at 3B)

196 Reyes (had 208 at SS, which might have been at 2B had Story been healthy)

131 Kike

49 Turner

18 Chang, 11 Rafaela, 11 DHam, 5 Wong, 1 Dalbec

 

Reyes has no options. I think Urias has 1. EValdez may start in AAA, just to keep depth.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

That auto correct is going to get you in trouble. # proof read

 

Either that or put more effort into the initial spelling.

[notin]

Does the MLB Trade Rumors list of projected arbitration salaries for the Red Sox have any non-tender candidates?

 

Red Sox (5)

 

Nick Pivetta (5.166): $6.9MM

Alex Verdugo (5.078): $9.2MM

Luis Urias (4.098): $4.7MM

Reese McGuire (4.027): $1.7MM

John Schreiber (3.027): $1.3MM

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2024.html

 

Urias feels like the most likely. Especially if the new boss isn’t remarkably fond of him…

[Hugh2]

Hopefully not. Valdez couldn’t catch a cold of he was naked in Norway. (I do like that line for bad defense, but I will work on a newer one.)

 

Well, it’s not like there’s a lot of option up the middle, and can you imagine if Story comes into camp injured? 2024 up the middle could be worse than 2023

[Bellhorn04]

Well, it’s not like there’s a lot of option up the middle, and can you imagine if Story comes into camp injured? 2024 up the middle could be worse than 2023

 

Story seemed healthy at end of 2023...or did I miss something?

[Hugh2]

Story seemed healthy at end of 2023...or did I miss something?

 

It’s not 2024 yet.

 

I’m actually cautiously optimistic in Trevory Story and the 2024 Boston Red Sox short stop. But a lot can go wrong in baseball. (And right)

[Bellhorn04]

It’s not 2024 yet.

 

I’m actually cautiously optimistic in Trevory Story and the 2024 Boston Red Sox short stop. But a lot can go wrong in baseball. (And right)

 

Goes without saying, man. This game will crush your hopes again and again. But here I am dreaming Sale will have a good year next year.