A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Hugh2]

I think it’s a team option that automatically vests if he meets the terms…[/quote

[moonslav59]

In a way, the fact that so many of our pitchers have shown they can go long stretches of doing well as a SP'er may end up hurting us more than helping us, if we put to much hope in them repeating it over a full season- something some have never done, or haven't done in a long time. I know I have repeated this point a few times, so I hope it doesn't bother anyone to hear it again.

 

IMO, we can count on Bello for 26+ GS and 160+ IP in 2024. We can count on Pivetta for the same, as long as he pitches well enough to hold a rotation slot for the whole year. The rest are just hopes and prayers- some really good ones, but still not even close to being depended upon for 26+/160+, and it's not like 26 or 160 is asking for workhorses.

 

The other factor that seems to be a part of the decision making process on adding SP'ers is that we have so many of these "hopes and prayers" type SP'ers, that we may be thinking, "We only need 3-4 out of the 5 or 6 to do well, for us to have a good rotation. How has that worked out for us?

 

The last factor is how jerking pitchers Between the pen and rotation never seems to help the pitcher, and it actually seems to hurt their numbers. I get the argument about how a pitcher should have better numbers in the pen than as a starter, due to several factors, I won't repeat, but the disparity on many of our guys is too wide to use this factor as a balancing tool. We clearly have some guys who are better suited for long relief tha starting. Keeping a pitcher in one role seems to be a good idea, at least per season. I think Winckowski is a good example of that, but Whitlock, Houck, Crawford and Pivetta also have shows massive disparities between starting and relieving. I think we need to make some smart choices. Maybe choose one guy, beyong Pivetta to start, and try our best to not jerk others in and out of the rotation in 2024.

 

Here is a look at the teasing we have seen from so many of our pitchers:

 

Sale: It's all about his health. The guy used to be a stud and a 200IP guy. His 20 starts and 102 IP in 2023 were the most since 2019, and IMO have teased fans into expecting a return to giving more than that. I'm sorry: I can't do it.

The 2023 "tease:" After his first 3 starts, he went 17 starts (sandwiched around an IL stint) with a 3.38 ERA/3.31 FIP. he was at 3.16/3.41 in his last 15 GS and 3.01/3.09 in an 11 game stretch in the middle of his season. That is not quite vintage Sale, but pretty freakin' good! What a great help it would be, if he could give us that over 26+ starts!

What's the chances?

 

Pivetta: He led MLB with 33 GS in 2022 and had 30 in 2021. (180 and 155 IP.) He could have probably done that, this year, if he didn't suck so much out of the gate and get demoted. Still, he has given us multiple "teases" over his career:

3.49/3.29 in his first 13 GS for the Sox (70 IP) 3.76/3.91 over his first 17 GS (91IP). 2022: 3.58/3.66 over a 15 start stretch. This year, he had a great and long run of mixed starts and relief stints. He's been pretty consistent: each year a long tease (or whatever you want to call it.)

 

Crawford: He had a great 23 game stretch with 15 GS, included: 3.23/3.93. I'm not sure that is a long enough tease to pencil him in as a SP in 2024. His last 6 GS: 5.40/2.94.

 

Whitlock and Houck have well-documented long stretches of doing very well, as well as some poor stretches.

[notin]

Pencil in Bello, Crawford, Sale and Pivetta for the bottom 3 slots. Obviously on the occasion Day Sale is healthy one of Pivetta or Crawford gets bumped.

 

Sign Sonny Gray.

 

Then see how you can get that last starter. Trade? Another FA? Beg? Borrow? Steal?

 

Just no Houck and no Whitlock!!

[Hugh2]

Yama/Nola or bust

[moonslav59]

Pencil in Bello, Crawford, Sale and Pivetta for the bottom 3 slots. Obviously on the occasion Day Sale is healthy one of Pivetta or Crawford gets bumped.

 

Sign Sonny Gray.

 

Then see how you can get that last starter. Trade? Another FA? Beg? Borrow? Steal?

 

Just no Houck and no Whitlock!!

 

This would be a major step up, but I'm sticking with the call for 3 significant SP additions, hopefully one and ace, one a #2 or solid #3 type, and the other better than a #5 or how Kluber looked when we signed him. Is it possible?

 

Depends on the budget.

 

Is it likely?

 

I seriously doubt it.

 

3 solid pitchers added.

Bello.

Sale/Pivetta as the #5.

 

A major by product would be a most amazing pen with perhaps a revolutionary strength and depth at the long relief part of the pen:

 

Pivetta

Crawford

Houck

Whitlock

 

The 4 short guys would be:

Jansen

Martin

Winckowski

Schreiber

 

Depth:

Bernardino

Kelly

Murphy

Robertson

Walter

Mills

Mata

Weiss

Guerrero

Gambrell, Drohan, Wikelman, Hagenman

(Joely's option declined?)

 

 

 

[notin]

Yama/Nola or bust

 

 

That scenario is about as likely as Chapman…

[moonslav59]

That scenario is about as likely as Chapman…

 

I think it is more likely we sign Yama or Nola than Chapman.

 

We are likely not even looking at adding corner IF'ers.

[notin]

I think it is more likely we sign Yama or Nola than Chapman.

 

We are likely not even looking at adding corner IF'ers.

 

I doubt the Sox sign both Yamamoto and Nola. Very highly.

 

If the Sox need 2 starting pitchers, and simply do not have an unlimited budget, who do you sign?

 

1. Nola/Snell/Yamamoto and Alex Cobb

2. Sonny Gray and Marcus Stroman

 

Nola, Snell and Yamamoto were all on MLBTRs top ten free agent list, along with Giolito (for some reason) and Urias (I believe the list predates his issues). But not Gray and Stroman.

 

And the new wild card who should presumably hit their next top ten is Trevor Bauer…

[moonslav59]

I doubt the Sox sign both Yamamoto and Nola. Very highly.

 

If the Sox need 2 starting pitchers, and simply do not have an unlimited budget, who do you sign?

 

1. Nola/Snell/Yamamoto and Alex Cobb

2. Sonny Gray and Marcus Stroman

 

Nola, Snell and Yamamoto were all on MLBTRs top ten free agent list, along with Giolito (for some reason) and Urias (I believe the list predates his issues). But not Gray and Stroman.

 

And the new wild card who should presumably hit their next top ten is Trevor Bauer…

 

I think Yamo/Nola means one of the two.

[moonslav59]

I doubt the Sox sign both Yamamoto and Nola. Very highly.

 

If the Sox need 2 starting pitchers, and simply do not have an unlimited budget, who do you sign?

 

1. Nola/Snell/Yamamoto and Alex Cobb

2. Sonny Gray and Marcus Stroman

 

Nola, Snell and Yamamoto were all on MLBTRs top ten free agent list, along with Giolito (for some reason) and Urias (I believe the list predates his issues). But not Gray and Stroman.

 

And the new wild card who should presumably hit their next top ten is Trevor Bauer…

 

I am thinking the best we can hope our guys will spend on are...

 

Gray & Montgomery

 

Maybe Montgomery, Cobb & a big 1 yr deal for Morton.

 

I'm still hoping we trade for one and then sign Gray & Montgomery or Gray & Morton.

 

[a700hitter]

I am thinking the best we can hope our guys will spend on are...

 

Gray & Montgomery

 

Maybe Montgomery, Cobb & a big 1 yr deal for Morton.

 

I'm still hoping we trade for one and then sign Gray & Montgomery or Gray & Morton.

 

I think they need to be more bold than that.

[moonslav59]

I think they need to be more bold than that.

 

I do, too, but I'm guessing that might be bolder than they will end up doing.

 

Also, I just listed the SP. I think we also sign Duvall and trade Dugo for a LH RP'er or 2Bman.

[Randy Red Sox]

I think it is more likely we sign Yama or Nola than Chapman.

 

We are likely not even looking at adding corner IF'ers.

 

 

I agree there is less than a zero chance we sign Chapman. Think Yamamoto and a trade for a young MLB ready SP.

[Randy Red Sox]

I do, too, but I'm guessing that might be bolder than they will end up doing.

 

Also, I just listed the SP. I think we also sign Duvall and trade Dugo for a LH RP'er or 2Bman.

 

 

I agree with a Verdugo trade. I really believe the new GM will add some quality SP. Unlike Bloom the new guy will be coming in at the right time as Henry has realized changes are needed or RSN is about to revolt

[moonslav59]

I agree with a Verdugo trade. I really believe the new GM will add some quality SP. Unlike Bloom the new guy will be coming in at the right time as Henry has realized changes are needed or RSN is about to revolt

 

So, if the wallet opens wide, the next GM is a hero.

 

IMO, the best case scenario, while staying realistic, is that the new GM is bolder, and JH opens his wallet to the second tax line.

 

We trade for someone like Burnes.

We sign Yamamoto (or Bauer/Nola/Gray)

We sign Duvall.

We trade Dugo and Urias for a better 2Bman.

We sign a LH RP'er.

 

(I'm all for getting 3 SP'ers, but two top ones would be awesome.)

 

Our deep pen can now handle two SP'ers from Pivetta, Sale, Houck or Crawford going 4.2 IP per start.

 

The offense may need help at the deadline, or if there is money left over, this winter, maybe we get another big RHB somehow (other team's salary dump trade?)

[harmony]

Is Boston an attractive destination for top free agents? Will a free agent view the Red Sox as potential contenders?

[moonslav59]

Is Boston an attractive destination for top free agents? Will a free agent view the Red Sox as potential contenders?

 

It won’t matter if the bid is highest.

[notin]

I agree there is less than a zero chance we sign Chapman. Think Yamamoto and a trade for a young MLB ready SP.

 

 

Chances of that are well beyond less than zero. Trading for MLB-ready SP is the hardest thing for a GM to do, unless you want to give up Anthony or Mayer. Any MLB-ready SP you can get for Verdugo, you don’t want…

[notin]

Is Boston an attractive destination for top free agents? Will a free agent view the Red Sox as potential contenders?

 

Do you really think being a potential contender is what free agents look for? Where do you think that is on the checklist?

Edited October 6, 2023 by notin

[moonslav59]

Do you really think being a potential contender is what free agents look for? Where do you think that is on the checklist?

 

I think he's trying to bait us into arguing about how s***** it must be playing for a lowly team like the Sox.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Do you really think bring a potential contender is what free agents look for? Where do you think that is on the checklist?

 

#3 for a guy about to enter his prime; the only time winning may be the priority is when an already rich veteran on his last contract desires one last shot at a ring

 

1. Money: lots and lots, commensurate with longterm production that you know your body can't possibly deliver

2. Weather: decent enough to give your body a chance to produce longterm; can't all be San Diego, but cities with miserable months of raw, rainy nights in the 40s need not apply

3. Vibes: crowds excited about baseball and baseball players in a place where winning matters (or the opposite of toiling in the Flying Dutchman of Domes in Tampa).

 

Some guys leave Boston for #1, and while happy with #2, miss #3... examples: Fred Lynn, Bruce Hurst. Others bring #3 with them, like Mookie or Manny (whose better-body-by-chemistry was one of the rare few that sustained excellence in Boston after signing longterm).

[sk7326]

Do you really think being a potential contender is what free agents look for? Where do you think that is on the checklist?

 

For free agents, the list is two items long:

 

1. Money

2. What can you do for my career?

 

And - think of it in terms of your real life job - all things being equal, would you rather join a well run company or a shoddily run one? Now baseball is different in that no team is in danger of missing payroll, but those considerations are still there.

[Hugh2]

I think it is more likely we sign Yama or Nola than Chapman.

 

We are likely not even looking at adding corner IF'ers.

 

If they're looking at adding infielders they would be looking up the middle

[notin]

I think he's trying to bait us into arguing about how s***** it must be playing for a lowly team like the Sox.

 

You mean like he did in about 3,000 of his previous 5200 posts?

[notin]

If they're looking at adding infielders they would be looking up the middle

 

Which is like looking at the plumbing under the kitchen sink to stop the leaks in the toilet. (That’s not where the problem is.)

[notin]

For free agents, the list is two items long:

 

1. Money

2. What can you do for my career?

 

And - think of it in terms of your real life job - all things being equal, would you rather join a well run company or a shoddily run one? Now baseball is different in that no team is in danger of missing payroll, but those considerations are still there.

 

Money is the safe answer that works in 99.999999% of all free agencies.

 

There are other reasons. I remember a story about one pitcher (I want to say Rick White, but I’m also sure that’s not it) once negotiated his own deal with the Cardinals because St.Louis had some very good special education schools his son needed. But those are the rarest of the rare reasons…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If they're looking at adding infielders they would be looking up the middle

 

Agreed. Ideally, second base can be upgraded with more righty pop and fielding consistency. Unfortunately, most decent batters there are lefties.

 

Home runs by RHH second basemen, 2021-23: 100 Semien, 58 Gleybar, 48 India.

 

One intriguing candidate: Brendan Rodgers, who missed most of the season with shoulder surgery but is supposedly healed (I know, I know...). He's 27, won a Gold Glove two years ago, and is arb eligible on the last-place Rockies... so could be available.

[mvp 78]

If they're looking at adding infielders they would be looking up the middle

 

If they are adding guys up the middle, are they dealing their up the middle prospects?

[notin]

Agreed. Ideally, second base can be upgraded with more righty pop and fielding consistency. Unfortunately, most decent batters there are lefties.

 

Home runs by RHH second basemen, 2021-23: 100 Semien, 58 Gleybar, 48 India.

 

One intriguing candidate: Brendan Rodgers, who missed most of the season with shoulder surgery but is supposedly healed (I know, I know...). He's 27, won a Gold Glove two years ago, and is arb eligible on the last-place Rockies... so could be available.

 

The Rockies never trade anyone.

 

Luis Urias, already on Boston, hit 39 HRs and had an OPS+ of 111 in 2021 through 2022. He’s not pop-free and does hit right handed. And he’s 10 months younger than Rodgers…

[notin]

If they are adding guys up the middle, are they dealing their up the middle prospects?

 

Is that a requirement?