A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Here we have the franchise with the 3rd largest market value and the 3rd highest operating income for the year 2022, according to Forbes, and some fans want to give them a license to keep the payroll down for years to come until they get some more stuff figured out. If the majority of fans felt that way it would be like a dream come true for John Henry. Several more years of keeping the payroll down and profits up.

 

It's like getting a big fat bonus for incompetence and negligence.

[Old Red]

Here we have the franchise with the 3rd largest market value and the 3rd highest operating income for the year 2022, according to Forbes, and some fans want to give them a license to keep the payroll down for years to come until they get some more stuff figured out. If the majority of fans felt that way it would be like a dream come true for John Henry. Several more years of keeping the payroll down and profits up.

 

It's like getting a big fat bonus for incompetence and negligence.

 

And all the while keep paying the rising ticket that seem to rise every year when the results don’t. Like I’ve said before one poster on here would be content as long as the future looked bright it would be alright if the team didn’t go so called all in, and produce until 2035, or 2036. Astonishing.

[Hugh2]

It’s not excusing anything, it’s just logic. If they take a 16 year old in IFA, or draft an 18 year old. They’re not starting games in the majors for years to come. That’s just reality

 

Could go college pitching, and reduce that lead time. But even then, you’re looking at a few years of building up innings and development.

 

That’s. That’s exactly what developing pitching entails

 

Every good to great starting pitcher was developed somewhere. So if it never comes to fruition you’re doing something wrong.

 

Hence, the concept of putting time, money, effort, and the RIGHT personnel into development.

 

Whether we like it or not, it takes time. That’s not an argument it’s just reality. Which is why I was a big proponent of buying starting pitching this offseason. A big market team like Boston (who is currently acting like a mid market club) can afford to invest in pitching. If they wanted.

 

I thinking taking the long road is more optimal for long term success, but I wanted to see now moves too in the interim. They have failed 100% to date, but I want bash them for doing something right.

[notin]

Here we have the franchise with the 3rd largest market value and the 3rd highest operating income for the year 2022, according to Forbes, and some fans want to give them a license to keep the payroll down for years to come until they get some more stuff figured out. If the majority of fans felt that way it would be like a dream come true for John Henry. Several more years of keeping the payroll down and profits up.

 

It's like getting a big fat bonus for incompetence and negligence.

 

I don’t care if they keep payroll down. Spending heavily is not the only way to build a successful baseball team. And when it doesn’t work, it can be incredibly detrimental.

 

But they do need to build a competitive team. I do think Henry’s goal is to be “good on a budget”. It’s not a popular philosophy, and not going to make him any friends. But it isn’t necessarily doomed, either…

Edited January 7, 2024 by notin

[jad]

I wonder if fans here feel the same about other forms of entertainment: 'Oh well, that movie sucked, but the studio is saving for a blockbuster next year"; 'yeah, the concert sucked, but there's no way they can or should pay top dollar for a guitarist'; 'the food is awful and pricey, but they're training a new chef' 'I went to the Farmers Market and there was nothing there, but you know, gardening is hard and takes many years to learn' ...

[Hugh2]

But this nothing new and doesn’t mean you take a 16yo and decide “ok we can’t compete until this kid of 24.” Hopefully not. I think this type of thing that I have seen before is more fan logic than team logic. Team front offices know they are in the business of selling entertainment to people through baseball games, and can’t decide to sit out 3-4 years of building competitive teams and actually expect to make any money.

 

I mean, we’ve all acknowledged it’s a business. Well, businesses don’t operate that way. When was the last time Pepsi decided not to produce any soft drinks because Coca Cola had some new trendy flavor they needed to wait out?

 

See my post above.

 

Just because they could or should be trading for pitching, or signing quality free agents, doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try to start getting better at developing them too.

 

This team is in a big hole. If we want long term success. It will take a multifaceted approach.

 

I feel perfectly comfortable being happy that they’re investing in more scouts and development personnel and also being upset as a fan that they can’t trade and sign the guys they need now. To me it’s not a zero sum game.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This isn't about impatience or entitlement. Henry and Werner may be able to afford the best doctors, nutritionists, personal trainers and even private chefs, but they're still both old bucks. Father Time will come knocking wearing a black hoodie for all of us soon enough.

 

These owners at their age can't possibly approve of new five-year plans every five years going forward. Nor can any Asst. VP in the front office feel job security if the strategy is to celebrate LABs (Losses Above Bargain players).

 

Cora, himself, recently noted that the big league club's present should always be the priority over a franchise stockpiling prospects for the future. At least he acknowledges we're all on borrowed time.

[Dipre]

I'll be blunt too. When I was reading this, the song "The Impossible Dream" started playing in my head.

 

You're basically saying "Here's a bunch of stuff I hope happens some day, and it's gonna be great if and when it does."

 

Let's start with this one:

 

2) Downsize and merge positions within their front office. Too many voices , too many people, paralysis by analisis.

Yeah, that sounds great, but it kinda looks like they don't really have any intention of doing anything of the sort, so I'm not sure why you think it's ever gonna happen.

 

And this one:

 

1) Fix their pitching development approach and system.

That's cake! But seriously, if it was a simple matter to do this I'm kind of thinking it would have been done by now. Bloom was supposed to do it. What happened there? He had the background with the Rays. Shouldn't that have been enough?

 

But here's the killer line:

 

I wouln't blow my load and go past the lux tax line on this team either, until they managed to get every part of this operation running smoothly.

 

If they wait until "every part of this operation is running smoothly", we might as well find something else to occupy us during baseball season the rest of our lives.

 

It's not stuff I hope they do, some of it they are already doing.

 

Pitching development: They brought on B&B (Breslow and Bailey.)

 

FO operations: They bought in people who come from organizations with more optimized FOs. Breslow is not Bloom. I bet he's more decisive and creates a more streamlined decision making process.

 

The real problem stems from upper management and shutting up/following a long term plan.

 

I think they will spend up to the cap, and unless they're idiots, at least in the beginning Breslow will have a long leash to execute his plans.

 

We'll see

[Dipre]

I wonder if fans here feel the same about other forms of entertainment: 'Oh well, that movie sucked, but the studio is saving for a blockbuster next year"; 'yeah, the concert sucked, but there's no way they can or should pay top dollar for a guitarist'; 'the food is awful and pricey, but they're training a new chef' 'I went to the Farmers Market and there was nothing there, but you know, gardening is hard and takes many years to learn' ...

 

Apples to oranges.

[Dipre]

I don’t care if they keep payroll down. Spending heavily is not the only way to build a successful baseball team. And when it doesn’t work, it can be incredibly detrimental.

 

But they do need to build a competitive team. I do think Henry’s goal is to be “good on a budget”. It’s not a popular philosophy, and not going to make him any friends. But it isn’t necessarily doomed, either…

 

I don't understand why this is such a hard concept to grasp. It's not how much they spend. If it was merely about spending, the Padres, Mets and Yankees would have made the playoffs last year.

[Hugh2]

This isn't about impatience or entitlement. Henry and Werner may be able to afford the best doctors, nutritionists, personal trainers and even private chefs, but they're still both old bucks. Father Time will come knocking wearing a black hoodie for all of us soon enough.

 

These owners at their age can't possibly approve of new five-year plans every five years going forward. Nor can any Asst. VP in the front office feel job security if the strategy is to celebrate LABs (Losses Above Bargain players).

 

Cora, himself, recently noted that the big league club's present should always be the priority over a franchise stockpiling prospects for the future. At least he acknowledges we're all on borrowed time.

 

I didn’t realize we were stock piling young pitching depth.

 

I get you were probably talking about prospects in general. But I didn’t think this what we were talking about. I thought we were talking about getting young, talented, high upside pitching into the system.

 

These guys don’t grow on trees.

 

They can trade for pitching, or buy it now, which I’ve been a proponent of. But if you want young talented arms, you have to do a better job of developing them.

 

That takes time. That’s a fact.

[FredLynn]

I don’t care if they keep payroll down. Spending heavily is not the only way to build a successful baseball team. And when it doesn’t work, it can be incredibly detrimental.

 

But they do need to build a competitive team. I do think Henry’s goal is to be “good on a budget”. It’s not a popular philosophy, and not going to make him any friends. But it isn’t necessarily doomed, either…

 

Maybe not, but it certainly hasn't worked out over the last few years, has it. And by all indications this year is shaping up to be yet another stinker. Who exactly is the "ace" of our staff now-the SP who can reliably put an end to losing streaks?

The only language Henry is going to understand is empty seats at the park.

[Dipre]

This isn't about impatience or entitlement. Henry and Werner may be able to afford the best doctors, nutritionists, personal trainers and even private chefs, but they're still both old bucks. Father Time will come knocking wearing a black hoodie for all of us soon enough.

 

These owners at their age can't possibly approve of new five-year plans every five years going forward. Nor can any Asst. VP in the front office feel job security if the strategy is to celebrate LABs (Losses Above Bargain players).

 

Cora, himself, recently noted that the big league club's present should always be the priority over a franchise stockpiling prospects for the future. At least he acknowledges we're all on borrowed time.

 

Where has anyone here said or implied anything of the sort?

[notin]

Maybe not, but it certainly hasn't worked out over the last few years, has it. And by all indications this year is shaping up to be yet another stinker. Who exactly is the "ace" of our staff now-the SP who can reliably put an end to losing streaks?

The only language Henry is going to understand is empty seats at the park.

 

And spending heavily works every time, right? If only you had told Steve Cohen last offseason. Or Hal Steinbrenner, whose team did finish ahead of Boston, but please don’t tell me you would have been satisfied with an 82-80 team.

 

Not sure who the Sox ace is. Who was that guy on the Rangers last year?

[Hugh2]

If I could control the front office. I’d have both Montgomery and Yamamoto in here (maybe not Yama), but I’d certainly open the check book

 

I’m not the front office, but if I was, on top of that I’d still be making the personnel and financial investments too to bottom to try and identify and develop more and better young pitching

 

There’s nothing wrong with both. I think a wise man would agree it’s actually optimal.

 

The reality is we can’t judge those things for years. We can definitely say for the past couple decades they’ve done a poor job. Have they improved in those areas? If recently only time will tell.

 

Separate from that, there are other failures at the big league level. Failing to trade for those guys to fill in the hole, failing to sign big names to fill in those holes. They deserve all the strife in the world for not doing all of these above.

 

Haven’t we been complaining for years that they don’t draft and develop pitching? Maybe that’s it. If they did, we couldn’t complain about it I suppose

[jad]

Apples to oranges.

 

Correct. The RS are an absolutely unique organization, and none of the rules that apply to all other businesses apply to them. As for the customers? (fans), just read my signature line. (i.e., pay up and stop complaining).

[Bellhorn04]

I don't understand why this is such a hard concept to grasp. It's not how much they spend. If it was merely about spending, the Padres, Mets and Yankees would have made the playoffs last year.

 

This isn't a hard concept to grasp either: spending and spending smart beats not spending.

 

Much as I hate to say it, the Yankees are probably the #1 example of spending big and spending smart. They have not had a sub-.500 season since 1992. Thankfully they have been very s***** in the playoffs over the last 20 years or so.

 

The Dodgers are obviously in that category now too.

[Hugh2]

This isn't a hard concept to grasp either: spending and spending smart beats not spending.

 

Much as I hate to say it, the Yankees are probably the #1 example of spending big and spending smart. They have not had a sub-.500 season since 1992. Thankfully they have been very s***** in the playoffs over the last 20 years or so.

 

The Dodgers are obviously in that category now too.

 

One reason the Yankees are good at spending smart is because the amount of scouting they do at the big league level. That’s an investment you don’t see show up in payroll.

 

I’d also argue that recently the Dodgers are a better example. They spend, but they still manage to draft and develop their own guys.

 

Red Sox have shown they can draft and develop position players. They just can’t do it on the other side of the ball. And have failed to not only address the issue, but fill in the blanks via other routes

[notin]

This isn't a hard concept to grasp either: spending and spending smart beats not spending.

 

Much as I hate to say it, the Yankees are probably the #1 example of spending big and spending smart. They have not had a sub-.500 season since 1992. Thankfully they have been very s***** in the playoffs over the last 20 years or so.

 

The Dodgers are obviously in that category now too.

 

Spending smart can also be interpreted as spending lucky. You can’t always predict injury. Look at Trevor Story. In Colorado, he never played fewer than 142 games. (Except 2020, obviously. And even then he played in 59 out of 60 games.)

 

He did have the elbow injury, but that didn’t keep him out of any games in 2022. Not one.

 

Story hasn’t worked out because he has been hurt a lot. Does he qualify as spending smart or spending poorly?

[Bellhorn04]

And spending heavily works every time, right? If only you had told Steve Cohen last offseason. Or Hal Steinbrenner, whose team did finish ahead of Boston, but please don’t tell me you would have been satisfied with an 82-80 team.

 

Of course it doesn't work every time.

 

If we want to avoid spending because it doesn't work every time, we might as well be the Pirates. They hardly every spend, so they must be the smartest team in the game.

[Dipre]

Correct. The RS are an absolutely unique organization, and none of the rules that apply to all other businesses apply to them. As for the customers? (fans), just read my signature line. (i.e., pay up and stop complaining).

 

What the hell are you talking about?

[Dipre]

Of course it doesn't work every time.

 

If we want to avoid spending because it doesn't work every time, we might as well be the Pirates. They hardly every spend, so they must be the smartest team in the game.

 

They should definitely spend on pitching at least up to the cap. No one is arguing otherwise

[Bellhorn04]

Spending smart can also be interpreted as spending lucky. You can’t always predict injury. Look at Trevor Story. In Colorado, he never played fewer than 142 games. (Except 2020, obviously. And even then he played in 59 out of 60 games.)

 

He did have the elbow injury, but that didn’t keep him out of any games in 2022. Not one.

 

Story hasn’t worked out because he has been hurt a lot. Does he qualify as spending smart or spending poorly?

 

The elbow injury reared its head for 2023. If you believe his elbow had a red flag attached to it, it was a very stupid signing.

[Bellhorn04]

They should definitely spend on pitching at least up to the cap. No one is arguing otherwise

 

And since they re-set the tax last year, why is staying under a goal for 2024? That seems like a goalpost move in itself.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Spending smart can also be interpreted as spending lucky. You can’t always predict injury. Look at Trevor Story. In Colorado, he never played fewer than 142 games. (Except 2020, obviously. And even then he played in 59 out of 60 games.)

 

He did have the elbow injury, but that didn’t keep him out of any games in 2022. Not one.

 

Story hasn’t worked out because he has been hurt a lot. Does he qualify as spending smart or spending poorly?

 

Fans can't answer that without directly connecting what they deem as the disgraceful treatment of management to homegrown star Xander Bogaerts. Forget that Story has been an utter flop. Did the Red Sox handle negotiations poorly with Bogie or did they outsmart themselves trying to save a buck...

 

Here's where a more concrete answer might exist: did the Mets spend smart in signing two creaky Hall of Fame starters pushing 40 for $40M apiece? Never mind that Cohen could afford to cut his losses in half a season -- taken literally, is blowing the budget on two old pitchers in any way building a core of sustained contenders? But what if you win it all that year, and the brand soars in immediate fame and fortune?

[FredLynn]

And spending heavily works every time, right? If only you had told Steve Cohen last offseason. Or Hal Steinbrenner, whose team did finish ahead of Boston, but please don’t tell me you would have been satisfied with an 82-80 team.

 

Not sure who the Sox ace is. Who was that guy on the Rangers last year?

 

Nope. Not every time. But spending on players in order to make the team competitive is more likely to be successful than the cheap route that Henry is obviously taking. Two last place finishes in a row and likely another one in 2024.....is that acceptable to you? This is not a small market team. It doesn't need a small market budget-but thats likely what we are getting.

[Bellhorn04]

Fans can't answer that without directly connecting what they deem as the disgraceful treatment of management to homegrown star Xander Bogaerts. Forget that Story has been an utter flop. Did the Red Sox handle negotiations poorly with Bogie or did they outsmart themselves trying to save a buck...

 

Here's where a more concrete answer might exist: did the Mets spend smart in signing two creaky Hall of Fame starters pushing 40 for $40M apiece? Never mind that Cohen could afford to cut his losses in half a season -- taken literally, is blowing the budget on two old pitchers in any way building a core of sustained contenders? But what if you win it all that year, and the brand soars in immediate fame and fortune?

 

Cohen is an interesting character. He was all in on Yamamoto, obviously, but losing out on Moto didn't compel him to empty the bank for Snell and/or Montgomery. Instead the Mets sign a low-profile guy in Manaea. And of course earlier they signed Severino.

[Dipre]

Fans can't answer that without directly connecting what they deem as the disgraceful treatment of management to homegrown star Xander Bogaerts. Forget that Story has been an utter flop. Did the Red Sox handle negotiations poorly with Bogie or did they outsmart themselves trying to save a buck...

 

Here's where a more concrete answer might exist: did the Mets spend smart in signing two creaky Hall of Fame starters pushing 40 for $40M apiece? Never mind that Cohen could afford to cut his losses in half a season -- taken literally, is blowing the budget on two old pitchers in any way building a core of sustained contenders? But what if you win it all that year, and the brand soars in immediate fame and fortune?

 

The results speak for themselves. They didn't win anything. They didn't even make the playoffs.

[Dipre]

Nope. Not every time. But spending on players in order to make the team competitive is more likely to be successful than the cheap route that Henry is obviously taking. Two last place finishes in a row and likely another one in 2024.....is that acceptable to you? This is not a small market team. It doesn't need a small market budget-but thats likely what we are getting.

 

This roster is not a finished product. We can better ascertain this point once the roster is complete.

[cp176]

Here we have the franchise with the 3rd largest market value and the 3rd highest operating income for the year 2022, according to Forbes, and some fans want to give them a license to keep the payroll down for years to come until they get some more stuff figured out. If the majority of fans felt that way it would be like a dream come true for John Henry. Several more years of keeping the payroll down and profits up.

 

It's like getting a big fat bonus for incompetence and negligence.

 

I think that you are right. If this franchise continues to cut payroll while at the same time making a large profit, I'm just not that interested in following them anymore. I'm one of those loyal to a fault kind of guys also but if they aren't actually reinvesting profits to improve then that is a clear message that tells me I'm a fool for following them. Now on the other hand, if they actually do something to help the major league team this season, I will be back on the train. I don't buy the long time plan toward improvement