A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

That's not a good way to approach a draft.

 

I don't think he was referring to the draft, but to this offseason.

[Randy Red Sox]

 

We'll wait until the next draft, and you can tell us who we should have taken, and then we'll see.

 

(I'm not trying to bust your balls. I'd like to see us draft a good pitchers, too. It's just hard to get those picks right- for almost any team.

 

if we are picking 12-15 again I take a P unless of course the next ranked P is way down the draft board. We are all crying for top young controllable SP but teams that have it are generally not trading it and we sure as hell are not developing it. We have enough quality position players but not a single top P prospect that I am aware of.

[Dipre]

That's not a good way to approach a draft.

 

Not talking about the draft. You know my draft philosophy. Did I miss something? I was talking about offseason moves.

[Dipre]

 

if we are picking 12-15 again I take a P unless of course the next ranked P is way down the draft board. We are all crying for top young controllable SP but teams that have it are generally not trading it and we sure as hell are not developing it. We have enough quality position players but not a single top P prospect that I am aware of.

 

I'm glad you're not drafting.

[notin]

 

if we are picking 12-15 again I take a P unless of course the next ranked P is way down the draft board. We are all crying for top young controllable SP but teams that have it are generally not trading it and we sure as hell are not developing it. We have enough quality position players but not a single top P prospect that I am aware of.

 

Never draft for position. That fails far more often than it works…

[notin]

Who was the last top 100 pitching prospect the Sox have had?

 

Has there been anyone since Trey Ball pre-2014? (BA#89,MLB.com #96)

[Randy Red Sox]

 

I'm glad you're not drafting.

 

So tell me then how do YOU get the Sox young controllable TOP pitching talent without drafting them high?? Perhaps then you can tell the Sox FO how it is done.

[Randy Red Sox]

Who was the last top 100 pitching prospect the Sox have had?

 

Has there been anyone since Trey Ball pre-2014? (BA#89,MLB.com #96)

 

proving my point with this

[Larry Cook]

Who was the last top 100 pitching prospect the Sox have had?

 

Has there been anyone since Trey Ball pre-2014? (BA#89,MLB.com #96)

 

I suggest that we do not send alcoholics to scout pitchers !!!!!

[Bellhorn04]

I suggest that we do not send alcoholics to scout pitchers !!!!!

 

Agreed. Dope fiends do a much better job.

[notin]

Agreed. Dope fiends do a much better job.

 

Well, they certainly stay up later…

[notin]

I suggest that we do not send alcoholics to scout pitchers !!!!!

 

Every scouting organization that produced a mock draft had Ball going between the 13th and 18th pick. It wasn’t our scouting or drafting; the guy simply didn’t pan out. He’s not the first and won’t be the last…

[notin]

Apparently the Sox are a top ten spender in free agency this offseason so far

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/each-teams-free-agent-spending-thus-far.html

 

So the “slow off-season” theory might hold some water. You know it’s a slow off-season when January turns the corner and the A’s and Rays are still each outspending the Yankees on free agents…

[Bellhorn04]

Well, they certainly stay up later…

 

Not if they're smoking Indica weed.

[Bellhorn04]

Apparently the Sox are a top ten spender in free agency this offseason so far

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/each-teams-free-agent-spending-thus-far.html

 

So the “slow off-season” theory might hold some water. You know it’s a slow off-season when January turns the corner and the A’s and Rays are still each outspending the Yankees on free agents…

 

Slow indeed. To complete the financial picture, of course, we have to account for the trades that have increased the Yankees payroll, and decreased the Red Sox payroll.

 

Next thing you know another bad "c" word* might be brought up by somebody.

 

*Collusion

[notin]

Slow indeed. To complete the financial picture, of course, we have to account for the trades that have increased the Yankees payroll, and decreased the Red Sox payroll.

 

Next thing you know another bad "c" word* might be brought up by somebody.

 

*Collusion

 

 

Granted, Juan Soto certainly is expected to eat into a big chunk of Cashman’s allowance. But we’re also only talking about spending more than it takes to sign Trevor Gott and Chris Devenski here…

[Larry Cook]

Every scouting organization that produced a mock draft had Ball going between the 13th and 18th pick. It wasn’t our scouting or drafting; the guy simply didn’t pan out. He’s not the first and won’t be the last…

 

And what is the riskiest high school position to draft early in the draft????

 

Most teams do several in house mock drafts so their first options are off the board, they have an alternative plan.

[Randy Red Sox]

And what is the riskiest high school position to draft early in the draft????

 

Most teams do several in house mock drafts so their first options are off the board, they have an alternative plan.

 

that was the problem with Ball alright. He certainly didn't work out but if he truly was ranked 13-18 then I have no problem with the pick. It is when we spend our 1st rd pick on a guy ranked over 100 slots lower that I have a problem. I have never said we should take P with all of our 1st rd picks but to those who say we can trade our position player drafts for young controlled TOP SP I say if so why haven't we been able to do so then? It appears obvious we are not going to buck up for a top Sp in FA so how do we intend to get one or two?

[notin]

And what is the riskiest high school position to draft early in the draft????

 

Most teams do several in house mock drafts so their first options are off the board, they have an alternative plan.

 

But you can’t complain about how we never draft pitchers in the first round on one thread and then highlight those same pitchers as too risky to take in the first round on another.

 

I mean, technically you can do that. But you’ll most likely get called on it…

[notin]

that was the problem with Ball alright. He certainly didn't work out but if he truly was ranked 13-18 then I have no problem with the pick. It is when we spend our 1st rd pick on a guy ranked over 100 slots lower that I have a problem. I have never said we should take P with all of our 1st rd picks but to those who say we can trade our position player drafts for young controlled TOP SP I say if so why haven't we been able to do so then? It appears obvious we are not going to buck up for a top Sp in FA so how do we intend to get one or two?

 

The Sox also didn’t have a second round pick, so they very likely took Yorke, a player they liked, at their last opportunity. Isn’t that how you’re supposed to draft?

[moonslav59]

 

if we are picking 12-15 again I take a P unless of course the next ranked P is way down the draft board. We are all crying for top young controllable SP but teams that have it are generally not trading it and we sure as hell are not developing it. We have enough quality position players but not a single top P prospect that I am aware of.

 

I'm not going to assume drafting a few more pitchers higher up would translate to us have a top pitching prospect or more. Certainly, it improves the odds, but to me, and it seems like most MLB teams, drafting the player most likely to make an impact, no matter what position they play makes the most sense, and pitchers are higher risks, so they tend to not be drafted as highly, overall.

 

I'm fine with thinking we need to improve our pitching from our system. IMO, we've already started, although some were acquired: Houck, Whitlock, Wink, Crawford, Bello...

 

Here are the amount of pitchers drafted in the top 15:

 

4 in 2023 (11 non pitchers)

4 in '22 (3 in top 14)

7 in '21 (5 in top 12)

6 in '20 (5 in top 14) Pitchers taken shortly after Yorke:Bryce Jarvis, Cade Cavalli, Nick Bitsko, Jared Shuster

 

2 in '19 (#7 Nick Lodolo & Alek Manoa at #11

5 in '18 (4 in top 13: Casey Mize #1, Ryan Weathers #7, Carter Stewart #8 & Grayson Rodriguez #11)

 

Would you say that highly drafted pitchers have done well in the last 5 drafts?

 

If we just trade some everyday prospects for a solid young pitcher, out method is fine. (We used to do that and won rings shortly after many of the biggest trades of prospects: Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, Sale.

 

[moonslav59]

Not talking about the draft. You know my draft philosophy. Did I miss something? I was talking about offseason moves.

 

Sorry. My eyesight is bad and getting worse.

 

I thought you were Randy continuing our discussion of drafting pitchers. My bad.

[moonslav59]

Who was the last top 100 pitching prospect the Sox have had?

 

Has there been anyone since Trey Ball pre-2014? (BA#89,MLB.com #96)

 

Espinosa or Kopech?

 

I don't think Groome or Mata ever cracked the 100.

 

Not Owens.

 

ERod was traded for as a prospect. Was he ever top 100?

 

[moonslav59]

proving my point with this

 

Like, we should have drafted more T-Balls?

[moonslav59]

Apparently the Sox are a top ten spender in free agency this offseason so far

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/each-teams-free-agent-spending-thus-far.html

 

So the “slow off-season” theory might hold some water. You know it’s a slow off-season when January turns the corner and the A’s and Rays are still each outspending the Yankees on free agents…

 

We also dumped a lot of salary under team control for 2024: Sale, Urias and Dugo.

 

They only counted FA additions. Still, a bit surprising.

 

8 teams have spent $0- 1.5M, so far.

[jacksonianmarch]

I read an article today that the Sox have an edict to cut payroll. They're gonna risk apathy

[moonslav59]

The Sox also didn’t have a second round pick, so they very likely took Yorke, a player they liked, at their last opportunity. Isn’t that how you’re supposed to draft?

 

You mean they knew he wouldn't be around by round 3? Could very well be.

 

IMO, the slot money was another factor. They paid Yorke about $900K underslot. Later, they took Jordan at about $1.08M overslot and Drohan $$236K over.

 

It was a 4 man draft due to COVID with no second round pick. I'm more upset about several other drafts than that one. (17th York, 89th Jordan, 118th Wu-Yellans and 148th Drohan)

 

The first 2 picks of '22 (24th Romero & 41st Coffey look worse, so far, although getting Anthony at #79 was a steal. Some later picks combined may outdo Romero and Coffey. Perhaps we should have drafted a pitcher 79th.

 

2019

43. Cannon

69 Lugo

107 Zeferjahn

137 Song

167 Groshans

197 Chris Murphy

(One of the few drafts we drafted 3 of the top 6 as pitchers. None have done much, if anything.

 

Houck as the first pick in 2017 (#24) worked out pretty well.

We also drafted Jake Thompson, Scherff and Schellenger, making it 4 pitchers in the top 3. (I'd still take the Teel, Mayer and Anthony drafts over this one.) While we are geeting back a ways in our history, we can also get a better read on their grades.

 

2016 (Anther draft with pitchers that did not work)

1st pick Groome (12th)

3rd (88th) Shaun Anderson

5th Shawaryn (148th)

6th Nogosek (178th)

 

2015: we avoids top pitchers in the draft (#171 Lakins)

 

Many felt the Kopech draft at #33 in 2014 was one of our best pitching drafts, but he has not been good, for a few years, now.

 

That #7 pick we had in 2013 was one of the highest we've ever had. We also drafted a pitcher 2nd:

7. T Ball

43. Stanky

113. Myles Smith

143. Corey Littrell

(4 pitchers in the top 5 ended up being one of our worst drafts, ever.)

 

I'm sticking with the draft the best SS idea (maybe an OF or C, here and there.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Randy Red Sox]

The Sox also didn’t have a second round pick, so they very likely took Yorke, a player they liked, at their last opportunity. Isn’t that how you’re supposed to draft?

 

Not if there is a significantly better player available where you drafted Yorke ESPECIALLY given we didn’t have a 2nd rd pick. You can’t miss that bad on your 1st rd pick. The reasoning given at the time by the Bloom apologists was that it allowed us enough slot money to sign the home run derby champ Blaze Jordan who also looks like a washout at this point

[Randy Red Sox]

You mean they knew he wouldn't be around by round 3? Could very well be.

 

IMO, the slot money was another factor. They paid Yorke about $900K underslot. Later, they took Jordan at about $1.08M overslot and Drohan $$236K over.

 

It was a 4 man draft due to COVID with no second round pick. I'm more upset about several other drafts than that one. (17th York, 89th Jordan, 118th Wu-Yellans and 148th Drohan)

 

The first 2 picks of '22 (24th Romero & 41st Coffey look worse, so far, although getting Anthony at #79 was a steal. Some later picks combined may outdo Romero and Coffey. Perhaps we should have drafted a pitcher 79th.

 

2019

43. Cannon

69 Lugo

107 Zeferjahn

137 Song

167 Groshans

197 Chris Murphy

(One of the few drafts we drafted 3 of the top 6 as pitchers. None have done much, if anything.

 

Houck as the first pick in 2017 (#24) worked out pretty well.

We also drafted Jake Thompson, Scherff and Schellenger, making it 4 pitchers in the top 3. (I'd still take the Teel, Mayer and Anthony drafts over this one.) While we are geeting back a ways in our history, we can also get a better read on their grades.

 

2016 (Anther draft with pitchers that did not work)

1st pick Groome (12th)

3rd (88th) Shaun Anderson

5th Shawaryn (148th)

6th Nogosek (178th)

 

2015: we avoids top pitchers in the draft (#171 Lakins)

 

Many felt the Kopech draft at #33 in 2014 was one of our best pitching drafts, but he has not been good, for a few years, now.

 

That #7 pick we had in 2013 was one of the highest we've ever had. We also drafted a pitcher 2nd:

7. T Ball

43. Stanky

113. Myles Smith

143. Corey Littrell

(4 pitchers in the top 5 ended up being one of our worst drafts, ever.)

 

I'm sticking with the draft the best SS idea (maybe an OF or C, here and there.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

[/quote

 

The biggest problem with drafting P is the damn Tommy John thing but other than Mayo ( who still is a bit unproven) what SS draft has made an in impact in Boston in the past several years. Faster in that Mayo was ranked first overall and fell to us at #4. I have no issue with that pick and want him to be our next SS not traded for a P

[moonslav59]

Not if there is a significantly better player available where you drafted Yorke ESPECIALLY given we didn’t have a 2nd rd pick. You can’t miss that bad on your 1st rd pick. The reasoning given at the time by the Bloom apologists was that it allowed us enough slot money to sign the home run derby champ Blaze Jordan who also looks like a washout at this point

 

I really don't get the whole "apologist" angle. Sure, some tried to explain why they chose an under slot guy pick one, but it's not like it's an absurd idea, in theory. It turns out the choice does not look good, right now. It looks more likely like a bust than even a useful utility player projection. I get that and don't disagree, that the pick looks bad, but so does Groome, T-Ball and others.

 

Why does this one draft mean so much more than other ones that don't look so good, as of now? Hell, some already have almost a complete grade, and it's an F or D, at best?

 

Even if we blew the Yorke pick, like it looks like we did, as Jordan and Drohan have now shown the underslot idea worked, this time, I still think many other drafts were just as bad, considering not picks after round 5.