A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[FredLynn]

This roster is not a finished product. We can better ascertain this point once the roster is complete.

 

True enough, but our most pressing need is a #1SP. Who is left out there on the FA market who could fill that role?

[Old Red]

The elbow injury reared its head for 2023. If you believe his elbow had a red flag attached to it, it was a very stupid signing.

 

I mentioned this before that Jeff Bagwell, and Craig Biggio non doctors said that Story would need surgery on that elbow at some point, and it eventually did happen of course after he got to Boston. If there wasn’t a red flag on Story there should have been one. Bad signing it was.

[cp176]

And spending heavily works every time, right? If only you had told Steve Cohen last offseason. Or Hal Steinbrenner, whose team did finish ahead of Boston, but please don’t tell me you would have been satisfied with an 82-80 team.

 

Not sure who the Sox ace is. Who was that guy on the Rangers last year?

 

Is anyone here suggesting that there is only one way to do something that is worth doing? I'm pretty sure that most posters realize the importance of doing all things that can be done. to be successful. We have two glaring weaknesses that I can see - starting pitching and defense. I think that while every decent player that we have in the organization develops, a little profit could be thrown toward helping out the product that we will be seeing this year.

[Randy Red Sox]

Spending smart can also be interpreted as spending lucky. You can’t always predict injury. Look at Trevor Story. In Colorado, he never played fewer than 142 games. (Except 2020, obviously. And even then he played in 59 out of 60 games.)

 

He did have the elbow injury, but that didn’t keep him out of any games in 2022. Not one.

 

Story hasn’t worked out because he has been hurt a lot. Does he qualify as spending smart or spending poorly?

 

poorly

[Dipre]

True enough, but our most pressing need is a #1SP. Who is left out there on the FA market who could fill that role?

 

They won't get a true #1, but they can definitely improve on this rotation a lot, while strengthening the BP at the same time.

[notin]

Nope. Not every time. But spending on players in order to make the team competitive is more likely to be successful than the cheap route that Henry is obviously taking. Two last place finishes in a row and likely another one in 2024.....is that acceptable to you? This is not a small market team. It doesn't need a small market budget-but thats likely what we are getting.

 

Then why has Tampa been in the postseason 5 years in a row (and counting)? Even during their heaviest spending days, the Sox never did that…

[notin]

They won't get a true #1, but they can definitely improve on this rotation a lot, while strengthening the BP at the same time.

 

And that needs to be the plan. As I have my doubts Snell and Bauer are anywhere near the radar…

[FredLynn]

They won't get a true #1, but they can definitely improve on this rotation a lot, while strengthening the BP at the same time.

 

The best way to improve the overall SP is to start at the top, not dumpster dive for a #4 who might work out. Getting a top flight SP moves the entire chain down a notch in terms of expectations. As far as I can tell the best remaining SP is Montgomery-a decent SP but not an ace. Two last place finishes in a row and a third likely should cause the fans to vote with their feet.

[notin]

poorly

 

Of course the Red Sox couldn’t use his first two years in Boston as part of that assessment, which you are doing…

[FredLynn]

Then why has Tampa been in the postseason 5 years in a row (and counting)? Even during their heaviest spending days, the Sox never did that…

 

Tampa obviously has much better management than we do, don't they. We can't afford to go into the season on the cheap because our management sucks. How many good SPs do we have in the pipeline? If they aren't there then to avoid yet another last place finish (because right now every team in the division is better than we are) Henry is going to have to open his wallet and fortify our SP.

[notin]

The best way to improve the overall SP is to start at the top, not dumpster dive for a #4 who might work out. Getting a top flight SP moves the entire chain down a notch in terms of expectations. As far as I can tell the best remaining SP is Montgomery-a decent SP but not an ace. Two last place finishes in a row and a third likely should cause the fans to vote with their feet.

 

And who should the Sox have acquired for the top?

 

Yamamoto, and his 0 MLB IP? Snell and his two Cy Youngs interspersed with several league-average seasons? Nola, the slightly more successful version of Rick Porcello?

 

If you need an ace, what do you do when none are available?

[notin]

Tampa obviously has much better management than we do, don't they. We can't afford to go into the season on the cheap because our management sucks. How many good SPs do we have in the pipeline? If they aren't there then to avoid yet another last place finish (because right now every team in the division is better than we are) Henry is going to have to open his wallet and fortify our SP.

 

We had their guy in charge the last 4 years.

 

Also does Tampa have this pipeline of SP everyone thinks we need? They did draft McLanahan and Taj Bradley. But they don’t seem to draft and develop as many pitchers as people think…

Edited January 7, 2024 by notin

[FredLynn]

And who should the Sox have acquired for the top?

 

Yamamoto, and his 0 MLB IP? Snell and his two Cy Youngs interspersed with several league-average seasons? Nola, the slightly more successful version of Rick Porcello?

 

If you need an ace, what do you do when none are available?

 

Yamamoto has the pedigree to be a top line SP. We were never even in on him. Snell would certainly be an improvement over what we now have. Lets see if we can snag him or if Henry will continue to tight wad the team.

[Old Red]

We had their guy in charge the last 4 years.

 

Also does Tampa have this pipeline of SP everyone thinks we need? They did draft McLanahan and Taj Bradley. But they don’t seem to draft and develop as many pitchers as people think…

 

Their guy? He was just one of the nerds in the nerd room, and wasn’t a front guy, and shouldn’t have been one here either.🙈

[FredLynn]

We had their guy in charge the last 4 years.

 

Also does Tampa have this pipeline of SP everyone thinks we need? They did draft McLanahan and Taj Bradley. But they don’t seem to draft and develop as many pitchers as people think…

 

One guy is not "the management". Obviously he didn't get the job done without the rest of his Tampa management team to help him out.

[Bellhorn04]

And who should the Sox have acquired for the top?

 

Yamamoto, and his 0 MLB IP? Snell and his two Cy Youngs interspersed with several league-average seasons? Nola, the slightly more successful version of Rick Porcello?

 

If you need an ace, what do you do when none are available?

 

So let me get this straight:

 

Snell was the NL Cy Young winner.

Gray was 2nd in the AL Cy Young voting.

 

But no aces were available.

 

Nola has been one of the best pitchers in the game over the last 5 years regardless of your attempts to make him sound s*****.

Montgomery was one of the pitchers in baseball last year.

 

But no aces were available.

 

This is Goldilocks stuff, man.

[jad]

I'm just glad the JH apologists are willing to pony up their cash for gear and season tickets, so those skeptics like myself can watch this train-wreck of an organization for free.

[notin]

Yamamoto has the pedigree to be a top line SP. We were never even in on him. Snell would certainly be an improvement over what we now have. Let’s see if we can snag him or if Henry will continue to tight wad the team.

 

But that didn’t necessarily tablature to success. For example, while he was pitching for Seibu, Daisuke was frequently called “the best pitching prospect in the world.” I mean, he wasn’t horrible or anything. But was he an ace?

[Dipre]

So let me get this straight:

 

Snell was the NL Cy Young winner.

Gray was 2nd in the AL Cy Young voting.

 

But no aces were available.

 

Nola has been one of the best pitchers in the game over the last 5 years regardless of your attempts to make him sound s*****.

Montgomery was one of the pitchers in baseball last year.

 

But no aces were available.

 

This is Goldilocks stuff, man.

 

Nola was going nowehere. Snell is a ticking time bomb. Gray hurts though.

[notin]

I'm just glad the JH apologists are willing to pony up their cash for gear and season tickets, so those skeptics like myself can watch this train-wreck of an organization for free.

 

If it makes you angry, I know I’m doing the right thing…

[notin]

Nola was going nowehere. Snell is a ticking time bomb. Gray hurts though.

 

Gray was my entire off-season wish list…

[Hugh2]

It’s all connected people. When you don’t have young pitching and you have to go out and buy it you can get burned by the hot stove. David Price, Jacob Degrome etc etc.

 

When you can draft and develop young players, particularly pitching you can afford to make a mistake or two when you’re a big market club.

 

Haven’t the Yankees made mistakes? The Dodgers?

 

There’s no silver bullet, there’s risk with anyone.

 

Yamamoto never pitched an inning in the bigs and carrys significant risk with his size. Maybe that doesn’t matter.

 

Snell has two CY young’s and a lot of durability concerns and mediocre seasons sprinkled inbetween.

 

Montgomery is going to be paid like an ace for pitching like a 2/3. But he’s been absurdly consistent. That could drastically change after 30.

 

Risk is mitigated by not having to rely on your free agent signings having to hit. Sox are in a position now where they have to hit.

 

I would have been ok with them taking that risk, but a better run organization built towards sustainable success is going to have to start with young pitching. Notice how we are always talking about the guys a year away from free agency being traded? How often to ACE pitchers with 3+ years of team control ACTUALLY get traded? Sure it happens, obviously, but it’s insanely rare. Which is why the price is insanely high. Teams don’t just trade those guys away, everyone wants them, abs when they get them they keep them.

 

If people are upset we haven’t made some big moves to bolster the pitching then I’m 100% on your side. I too, am dissatisfied. But the long term sustainable solution is to draft, trade for prospects, and develop these guys. We just plain and simply don’t do that. But what would it look like? It’s not just drafting guys, it’s having the ability to identify and develop talent. For example, Dick Fitts is a nice young pitching prospect, not elite, but could develop into a middle of the rotation starter. Probably won’t but could. Roger Clemens once was scouted and said to have the potential to be a mid rotation starter. It’s more probable that Fitts is not that good, but it’s having more moves like that (with using more draft capital) that ALLOWS for that to happen.

 

Sox are essentially fishing in a pond with a dozen fish, where teams like LA stock their pond with fish.

 

I really really hope that one day the ghost of baseball past/present/future visit John Henry and convince him to start acting like the Boston f***ing Red Sox again. But investments they’ve made in development and scouting are welcomed.

[notin]

So let me get this straight:

 

Snell was the NL Cy Young winner.

Gray was 2nd in the AL Cy Young voting.

 

But no aces were available.

 

Nola has been one of the best pitchers in the game over the last 5 years regardless of your attempts to make him sound s*****.

Montgomery was one of the pitchers in baseball last year.

 

But no aces were available.

 

This is Goldilocks stuff, man.

 

Snell has 21.1 career bWAR, 13.1 of which have come in TWO SEASONS. Are we basing everything solely on 2023 now?

 

If so, Nola had 2.1 bWAR, which is less than Nick Pivetta and Kutter Crawford. Does that make them aces? (I’ve never called Nola s*****. I do think he is overrated. He’s had 2 seasons of 2.5 bWAR or less in the past 3 years. He’s might be gravitating towards being average.)

 

Montgomery is still available, but his postseason performance was expected to jack up his price. If I bought into the “ace” label thing, I doubt I’d label Montgomery as one. But he’s certainly been a very underrated pitcher.

 

 

It is Goldilocks stuff if you think Snell is “just right”…

Edited January 7, 2024 by notin

[moonslav59]

Starting pitching -- it all starts with starters.

 

Doesn't matter if you're a contender looking for a championship boost, or a cellar-dweller beginning a rebuild.

 

Red Sox major mound additions that eventually led to rings (pitchers specifically recruited to fortify playoff rotations): '04 Schilling, '06 Beckett, '10 Lackey, '17 Sale.

 

But most relevant to the 2024 Sox may be the biggest and best acquisition: Pedro Martinez in '98. Boston was coming off a losing season with a 78-84 record -- identical to the '23 Red Sox -- when Dan Duquette swung a trade for the 26-year-old NL Cy Young winner. Pedro instantly catapulted the Sox to 92 wins, back into the playoffs, and changed the culture for decades.

 

Bad teams simply cannot wait until they're somehow good again before investing in really good pitching. A top of the rotation starter changes everything: giving the D confidence, taking the pressure off his O, resting the bullpen, easing stress for management, and from the business standpoint -- exciting the fanbase, sparking a buzz through the media, and making the host city more appealing for future free agents.

 

I agree, and our long term future is the best aspect of this team, except SP'ers.

 

You mentioned the big 5 pitcher additions: Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, Lackey and Sale and in almost every case, they were coupled with another great, and at other times some complimentary SP'er were added to increase our odds of winning.

 

Schill joined Pedro on a staff that already had DLowe and Wake (another addition from before.)

 

In 2007, We had Beckett paired with Shill, but also had added Dice-K, and Lester was beginning to mature.

 

By 2013, Lester, perhaps the best homegrown SP'er this team has produced since Clemens, was joined by Lackey (FA) and Dempster (FA). Doubront (MiLFA) & Buch made for a pretty solid 5. Injuries forced the addition of Peavy at the deadline.

 

One SP'er you failed to mention was Price, who came before Sale. It was no fluke that team was the best ever as other additions were far from slouches: Porcello, ERod & Nate- all from trades. That rotation had no homegrown SP'ers, except Brian Johnson with 13 GS. 6 of the top 7 SP'ers by GS were acquired by trade (5- the 4 mentioned plus PomPom) or FA (1- Price).

 

We have proven we can win by adding SP'ers, mostly by trade. The Price and Lackey FA signings were important, but not as impactful as the trades.

 

I do also agree with Dipre: we need to fix the SP'er acquisition & development program, and soon. It does look like some changes have already been made, but it will be years before we see results- good or bad. In the meantime, I'll continue whining about the payroll and lack of focus on adding SP'ers via trade or free agency.

[notin]

Nola was going nowehere. Snell is a ticking time bomb. Gray hurts though.

 

Agreed.

[Bellhorn04]

Snell has 21.1 career bWAR, 13.1 of which have come in TWO SEASONS. Are we basing everything solely on 2023 now?

 

If so, Nola had 2.1 bWAR, which is less than Nick Pivetta and Kutter Crawford. Does that make them aces? (I’ve never called Nola s*****. I do think he is overrated. He’s had 3 seasons under 2.5 bWAR in the past 4 years. He’s rapidly gravitating towards being average.)

 

Montgomery is still available, but his postseason performance was expected to jack up his price. If I bought into the “ace” label thing, I doubt I’d label Montgomery as one. But he’s certainly been a very underrated pitcher.

 

There are very few aces, is the whole point, and even those we call aces have fluctuations in their performance.

 

We can find flaws in virtually every starting pitcher.

 

The next 1965 Koufax or 1999 Pedro just isn't out there, and may never be out there.

 

I really am seeing a lot of the Goldilocks stuff going on this offseason.

 

This guy is too old.

This guy doesn't pitch enough innings.

This guy is too expensive.

This guy gives up too many walks.

This guy has bad numbers against the AL East.

This guy really didn't want to play for the Red Sox.

 

So instead we'll roll with Giolito, Bello, Crawford, Pivetta and Houck.

[jad]

If it makes you angry, I know I’m doing the right thing…

 

I'm never angry at the number of apologists justifying what the rich and powerful do. I'm just surprised they have nothing better to do with their intellects.

[moonslav59]

Spending smart can also be interpreted as spending lucky. You can’t always predict injury. Look at Trevor Story. In Colorado, he never played fewer than 142 games. (Except 2020, obviously. And even then he played in 59 out of 60 games.)

 

He did have the elbow injury, but that didn’t keep him out of any games in 2022. Not one.

 

Story hasn’t worked out because he has been hurt a lot. Does he qualify as spending smart or spending poorly?

 

Fans almost always judge in hindsight, although in Story's case, we all knew he has arm issues, when we signed him.

 

If you look at today's FA prices, and the numbers Story put up, even if just looking at his away numbers while with COL, $140M/6 looks llike a good deal.

 

I'm not buying the idea that we should wait until we think we can win to pounce with spending. While I do think the team core might look better in 2025 or 2026 than 2024, we could add some pieces that could help us now and then. Maybe Gray's age is worrisome for 2026, but we did not have to sign Ohtani or Yamo to get to serious competitive levels.

 

Hell, I see a way we can still get to a point where we should be playoffs competitors: sign Monty, Stroman or Imanaga and Teoscar. This would likely put us over the tax line, but not the second one, and if we traded Jansen or Yoshida, we could stay under the line,

 

It's not rocket science. We can compete and still keep our top prospects intact without going over the tax line.

[Old Red]

Snell has 21.1 career bWAR, 13.1 of which have come in TWO SEASONS. Are we basing everything solely on 2023 now?

 

If so, Nola had 2.1 bWAR, which is less than Nick Pivetta and Kutter Crawford. Does that make them aces? (I’ve never called Nola s*****. I do think he is overrated. He’s had 2 seasons of 2.5 bWAR or less in the past 3 years. He’s might be gravitating towards being average.)

 

Montgomery is still available, but his postseason performance was expected to jack up his price. If I bought into the “ace” label thing, I doubt I’d label Montgomery as one. But he’s certainly been a very underrated pitcher.

 

 

It is Goldilocks stuff if you think Snell is “just right”…

This I pretty much agree with. Yes Snell has won two CY. Somebody has to win them, but in between his two CY he hasn’t been all that great. Monty finished 2nd in CY voting, and someone has to do that too. Monty is more sought after now, because he had a good stretch at the end of the season, and into the postseason, and now he’s available. He wasn’t as highly thought of up until then. I have said before both Snell, and Monty would help the Red Sox, but it’s just a question are the worth the length, and cost . I don’t label pitchers, so I don’t get into Ace, or #1 talk. Snell, and Monty are the best available, but that doesn’t mean they are as good as the hype, or what hey will end up with for a contract.

[Boodgyman5220]

Honestly it seems like we are retooling our roster to have flexibility for the 2025 season. Looking at free agent pitchers there don’t seem to be a lot of ace types available. Interesting name could be Michael Sorowski who had a nice sophomore year before being derailed by injuries. Other than that we’ll be having the same conversation on whether or not to commit big money to aging stars. Seems like we need to either keep swinging on reclamation types of invest young players into a trade.