A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

Signing International Free Agent non pitchers to trade later on.

 

As you like to say, "I never said" F.E. was signed to trade for an ace.

 

I did not hint that one specific signing was designed to trade later for a stud pitcher.

 

We've drafted and signed way more non pitchers than pitchers. Some advance to a level where they can be traded (maybe as part of a package, maybe not) for a good or great pitcher.

 

I'm not sure if Sox management does this with trades in mind, or not, but many on this board have mentioned that as a by-product of doing so.

[mvp 78]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/wall-ball-for-all-examining-the-new-righty-red-sox/

 

This is saying what we’re all thinking: if you hit the ball hard enough, Fenway doesn’t help much. If you hit the ball low, Fenway doesn’t help much. If you hit it fairly hard and fairly high, you’re looking at a parade of doubles and homers instead of lazy outs.

 

O’Neill doesn’t hit as many of those balls as you’d think. In his career, he’s hit 15 more Fenway-friendly batted balls than your average right-handed hitter would have based on his number of balls in play, but after you add in all his non-contact events – he either strikes out or walks fairly often – it’s a negligible amount. Relative to your average right-handed hitter, O’Neill isn’t getting much of a Fenway boost; it’s on the order of four extra batted balls a year hit where the park hands out extra-base hits. On the flip side, he also hits the ball hard and low more often than your average hitter; call that three batted balls a year. And these estimates are for if O’Neill played every game at Fenway. I don’t think he’ll be a huge beneficiary of the park, in other words.

 

That could have been where my analysis left off, except that the Sox turned around and traded for Vaughn Grissom. Now this is the kind of guy who seems like a good fit for Fenway, I told myself. He doesn’t strike out very frequently, which means more balls in play. He has average power, which means fewer screamers that Fenway either does nothing for (no-doubt high homers are still gone) or hurts (a missile off the wall). When he puts the ball in the air, he pulls it fairly often.

 

That’s not to say the Grissom is a perfect fit. He hits more grounders than you’d like for a player who should be taking advantage of a unique stadium. But that’s fixable. Grissom has never played in Fenway before, so it never made much sense for him to develop a swing perfectly tailored for the park. He has tremendous bat control, which suggests to me that he has more ability than your average player to change his batted ball mix.

 

One final aside: while researching O’Neill’s batted ball mix, I decided to figure out which player would be the most Fenway-optimized hitter in baseball. To no one’s surprise, that’d be Isaac Paredes. He makes a living on those lofted pulled fly balls that are decently struck. Per 600-PA season, he hits nearly three times as many balls that Fenway boosts as your average righty.

[moonslav59]

I've been saying this same mantra for years, but I'm starting to shift my opinion on it.

 

Yes you can trade hitting for pitching, but you can't get away with that to build the majority of your pitching staff. Yes we've developed our own guys who are good E.G. Houck. But not enough high end talent. When is the last time we developed an ACE?

 

Sure we can trade for one, and perhaps we should, but if you're trading 4 for 1, or 3 for 1 prospects for pitching, eventually you're going to have no team on the field behind them. Prospects bust, but some don't, and the more bullets you fire the more Bogaerts, Betts, Durans, Casas, Bello's, Houcks you're missing out on. I know the talent level varies on that list, but you need good to better talent all up/down your roster to compete for championships.

 

At some point, the Boston Red Sox are going to have to do a much better job of bringing in elite pitching talent, Whether that's trading for younger pitching prospects who they can better evaluate and develop (a good example of this would be if Fitts develops into a #3) and/or drafting pitchers via Rule 4, Japanese signings and IFA.

 

Everyone agrees on the need to improve our pitching development system, as well as identifying and acquiring young prospect pitchers through the draft, IFA or other ways like Rule 5, miLFA and trades.

 

That being said, we have made it work for 15 years, in large part, by trading top prospects for frontline pitchers. They weren't always just everyday prospects. The Pedro trade (before the JH era) involved trading two highly regarded pitching prospects, that our farm has not duplicated since.

 

The Schilling trade was for young pitchers, too.

Beckett was mainly for HRam, but Anibal Sanchez was highly regarded, as well.

Sale was mainly for Moncada, but Kopech was no slouch.

Nate was not really thought to be a front line SP, when we traded a decent pitching prospect (Beeks) for him.

 

Our large FA SP'er signings have had mixed to poor results:

Price

Lackey

Dice-K

Dempster, Richards and Kluber were not really a big signings.

 

We look reluctant to sign big FA pitchers to more than what Giolito got, but we have made some sizable SP extensions, namely Sale, Nate, Porcello, Beckett, and Pedro- way back.

 

[moonslav59]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/wall-ball-for-all-examining-the-new-righty-red-sox/

 

This is saying what we’re all thinking: if you hit the ball hard enough, Fenway doesn’t help much. If you hit the ball low, Fenway doesn’t help much. If you hit it fairly hard and fairly high, you’re looking at a parade of doubles and homers instead of lazy outs.

 

O’Neill doesn’t hit as many of those balls as you’d think. In his career, he’s hit 15 more Fenway-friendly batted balls than your average right-handed hitter would have based on his number of balls in play, but after you add in all his non-contact events – he either strikes out or walks fairly often – it’s a negligible amount. Relative to your average right-handed hitter, O’Neill isn’t getting much of a Fenway boost; it’s on the order of four extra batted balls a year hit where the park hands out extra-base hits. On the flip side, he also hits the ball hard and low more often than your average hitter; call that three batted balls a year. And these estimates are for if O’Neill played every game at Fenway. I don’t think he’ll be a huge beneficiary of the park, in other words.

 

That could have been where my analysis left off, except that the Sox turned around and traded for Vaughn Grissom. Now this is the kind of guy who seems like a good fit for Fenway, I told myself. He doesn’t strike out very frequently, which means more balls in play. He has average power, which means fewer screamers that Fenway either does nothing for (no-doubt high homers are still gone) or hurts (a missile off the wall). When he puts the ball in the air, he pulls it fairly often.

 

That’s not to say the Grissom is a perfect fit. He hits more grounders than you’d like for a player who should be taking advantage of a unique stadium. But that’s fixable. Grissom has never played in Fenway before, so it never made much sense for him to develop a swing perfectly tailored for the park. He has tremendous bat control, which suggests to me that he has more ability than your average player to change his batted ball mix.

 

One final aside: while researching O’Neill’s batted ball mix, I decided to figure out which player would be the most Fenway-optimized hitter in baseball. To no one’s surprise, that’d be Isaac Paredes. He makes a living on those lofted pulled fly balls that are decently struck. Per 600-PA season, he hits nearly three times as many balls that Fenway boosts as your average righty.

 

Does O'Neill hit the ball to RF or R-CF much?

 

If so, those low liners may add some hits to his totals- just not HRs or DBLs, unless they find the gap or are down the line.

[Bellhorn04]

Everyone agrees on the need to improve our pitching development system

 

Bloom was supposed to do that, wasn't he?

[moonslav59]

Bloom was supposed to do that, wasn't he?

 

Yes.

 

To me, my biggest hopes upon his hiring was that he'd...

 

1. Build up the whole farm system, including significant upgrading of pitcher acquisition & development. (Almost a total failure.)

 

2. Find "gems in the rough," including pitchers, as the budget cuts necessitated. (Did so less than I expected, but he did nab Whitlock, Pivetta, Schreiber, Bernardino, Strahm and some non pitchers like Renfroe, JT, Duvall, Wong, Abreu...)

 

3. Do well on mid-level signings. (Almost a total flop in the $5M to $12M range, except for maybe Wacha and Hill, who did okay.)

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

Does O'Neill hit the ball to RF or R-CF much?

 

If so, those low liners may add some hits to his totals- just not HRs or DBLs, unless they find the gap or are down the line.

 

Feel free to read the article.

[mvp 78]

Bloom was supposed to do that, wasn't he?

 

His ass got sacked.

[Dipre]

There's a marked difference between drafting and developing, and that's where I think some of y'all are conflating things. Their draft philosophy is fine, but they should hit on more pitchers than they do regardless of draft position or drafting philosophy. That is a development issue, not a drafting issue.

[moonslav59]

There's a marked difference between drafting and developing, and that's where I think some of y'all are conflating things. Their draft philosophy is fine, but they should hit on more pitchers than they do regardless of draft position or drafting philosophy. That is a development issue, not a drafting issue.

 

Yes, correct.

 

We have not been identifying the right pitchers to draft, in the mid to lower rounds, where many teams hit gold quite a bit.

 

Our developmental system is not good, either, but that could be affected by never adding top quality pitching prospects to some extent.

 

For a while, some used Beeks success as evidence TBR could "develop" better than us. I don't hear his name anymore.

 

We also seem to get our fair share of major injuries with our farm arms.

 

IMO, we need help in both areas, and maybe these new guys will do the trick.

 

Itwill take time, and time is not something Sox fans want to think about, right now.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, correct.

 

We have not been identifying the right pitchers to draft, in the mid to lower rounds, where many teams hit gold quite a bit.

 

Our developmental system is not good, either, but that could be affected by never adding top quality pitching prospects to some extent.

 

For a while, some used Beeks success as evidence TBR could "develop" better than us. I don't hear his name anymore.

 

Replace Beeks with Zack Littell and Jake Diekman. Both put up good numbers with TB this year. We hardly gave Littell a look, of course. This isn't about development but MLB coaching and analytics, I guess. Same with Brasier, who got much better with LAD when they got him to try a cutter.

[moonslav59]

Replace Beeks with Zack Littell and Jake Diekman. Both put up good numbers with TB this year. We hardly gave Littell a look, of course. This isn't about development but MLB coaching and analytics, I guess. Same with Brasier, who got much better with LAD when they got him to try a cutter.

 

I was thinking prospect pitcher development.

 

Add Springs to your list.

[moonslav59]

Maybe the Padres would want yet another SS (Story,) but damn, they are looking to cut salary, too.

[notin]

Replace Beeks with Zack Littell and Jake Diekman. Both put up good numbers with TB this year. We hardly gave Littell a look, of course. This isn't about development but MLB coaching and analytics, I guess. Same with Brasier, who got much better with LAD when they got him to try a cutter.

 

And Jeffrey Springs!

[moonslav59]

And Jeffrey Springs!

 

I said that 2 posts ago.

[moonslav59]

Here is how BTV views our 4 winter trades:

 

ATL: Sale -5.7 + $17 Cash

BOS: Grissom 17.1 (net +5.8)

 

SEA: L Urias 1.2

BOS: I Campbell 1.9 (net +0.7)

 

Combined (2B + P matches up):

ATL/SEA: Sale, $17M + Urias= 12.5

Boston: Campbell & Grissom= 19.0

BOS: +6.5

___________________________

 

STL: N Robertson 1.6 + V Santos 0.4

BOS: O'Neill 5.7 (net BOS +3.7)

 

NYY: Verdugo 4.8 (net +1.9)

BOS: Fitts 2.1, Weissert 0.8, Judice ???

 

Combine 2 (RF + Ps)

STL/NYY: Dugo + Robertson + Santos= 6.8

Boston: O'Neill + Fitts + Weissert= 8.6

BOS: +1.8

 

Overall: BOS +8.3

 

FA Signings:

+0.9 Giolito (Value: 39.4/ Salary 38.5)

+0.7 Max Castiilo (3.8/3.1)

 

Rule 5:

+0.9 Slaten

 

 

[Randy Red Sox]

I feel sorry for any Red Sox fans who think that ownership is truly concerned with making the Sox a stronger contender. It is very clear that Henry has given Breslow a budget and mandate to keep the team competitive at the same time paring the payroll. Any fans hoping for a different story need to take a hard look n the mirror

[notin]

I feel sorry for any Red Sox fans who think that ownership is truly concerned with making the Sox a stronger contender. It is lai ly clear that Henry has given Breslow a budget and mandate to keep the team competitive at the same time paring the payroll. Any fans hoping for a different story need to take a hard look n the mirror

 

1. I’m confused with you say Ownership didn’t want a stronger competitor in one sentence and then state Ownership mandated the team be competitive in the next.

2. I don’t think you grasp the “look in the mirror” idiomatic expression. Now I realize this is an Internet forum and you could be posting from Norway and English is your fifth language. I’m which case, you’re doing well and I’m impressed…

Edited January 7, 2024 by notin

[Dipre]

One important thing to note here regarding the whining about the payroll and the whole "distrust the team" narrative, I'm going to be blunt with y'all. I own a small business, and seeing this mess of a team from a businessowner's perspective, I wouln't blow my load and go past the lux tax line on this team either, until they managed to get every part of this operation running smoothly. I think they should spend up to the cap, but the more I reflect on it, the more this team needs some deep cleaning before they can get up to previous levels of spending. It's hard to read, but nothing's easier than spending someone else's money because peeople feel the team owes them.something, which it does. But owning a baseball team is first and foremost a business venture, and as I've explained multiple times before, the best way for the owners to line their pockets is to present a winning and marketable product on a sustained manner. The long-term outlook for this team is something that can't be outright fixed with immediate spending, they need to:

 

1) Fix their pitching development approach and system.

2) Downsize and merge positions within their front office. Too many voices , too many people, paralysis by analisis.

3) Establish (and f***ing follow) a mid-to-long term strategic roster and farm development plan. They jump around year to year. This year we want groundball pitchers and power hitters, next year we want power pitchers and speed and defense guys, create and follow a blueprint.

4) Shut the f*** up. Everything the Sox upper management says is a foot in mouth moment. Shut up and let Breslow cook

5)Which brings me to the final point. Let Breslow cook. Let him create and follow through on his plans for this team. Set a budget, let him build a roster based on it, and execute his plan.

 

It's not that hard.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Starting pitching -- it all starts with starters.

 

Doesn't matter if you're a contender looking for a championship boost, or a cellar-dweller beginning a rebuild.

 

Red Sox major mound additions that eventually led to rings (pitchers specifically recruited to fortify playoff rotations): '04 Schilling, '06 Beckett, '10 Lackey, '17 Sale.

 

But most relevant to the 2024 Sox may be the biggest and best acquisition: Pedro Martinez in '98. Boston was coming off a losing season with a 78-84 record -- identical to the '23 Red Sox -- when Dan Duquette swung a trade for the 26-year-old NL Cy Young winner. Pedro instantly catapulted the Sox to 92 wins, back into the playoffs, and changed the culture for decades.

 

Bad teams simply cannot wait until they're somehow good again before investing in really good pitching. A top of the rotation starter changes everything: giving the D confidence, taking the pressure off his O, resting the bullpen, easing stress for management, and from the business standpoint -- exciting the fanbase, sparking a buzz through the media, and making the host city more appealing for future free agents.

[Bellhorn04]

One important thing to note here regarding the whining about the payroll and the whole "distrust the team" narrative, I'm going to be blunt with y'all. I own a small business, and seeing this mess of a team from a businessowner's perspective, I wouln't blow my load and go past the lux tax line on this team either, until they managed to get every part of this operation running smoothly. I think they should spend up to the cap, but the more I reflect on it, the more this team needs some deep cleaning before they can get up to previous levels of spending. It's hard to read, but nothing's easier than spending someone else's money because peeople feel the team owes them.something, which it does. But owning a baseball team is first and foremost a business venture, and as I've explained multiple times before, the best way for the owners to line their pockets is to present a winning and marketable product on a sustained manner. The long-term outlook for this team is something that can't be outright fixed with immediate spending, they need to:

 

1) Fix their pitching development approach and system.

2) Downsize and merge positions within their front office. Too many voices , too many people, paralysis by analisis.

3) Establish (and f***ing follow) a mid-to-long term strategic roster and farm development plan. They jump around year to year. This year we want groundball pitchers and power hitters, next year we want power pitchers and speed and defense guys, create and follow a blueprint.

4) Shut the f*** up. Everything the Sox upper management says is a foot in mouth moment. Shut up and let Breslow cook

5)Which brings me to the final point. Let Breslow cook. Let him create and follow through on his plans for this team. Set a budget, let him build a roster based on it, and execute his plan.

 

It's not that hard.

 

I'll be blunt too. When I was reading this, the song "The Impossible Dream" started playing in my head.

 

You're basically saying "Here's a bunch of stuff I hope happens some day, and it's gonna be great if and when it does."

 

Let's start with this one:

 

2) Downsize and merge positions within their front office. Too many voices , too many people, paralysis by analisis.

Yeah, that sounds great, but it kinda looks like they don't really have any intention of doing anything of the sort, so I'm not sure why you think it's ever gonna happen.

 

And this one:

 

1) Fix their pitching development approach and system.

That's cake! But seriously, if it was a simple matter to do this I'm kind of thinking it would have been done by now. Bloom was supposed to do it. What happened there? He had the background with the Rays. Shouldn't that have been enough?

 

But here's the killer line:

 

I wouln't blow my load and go past the lux tax line on this team either, until they managed to get every part of this operation running smoothly.

 

If they wait until "every part of this operation is running smoothly", we might as well find something else to occupy us during baseball season the rest of our lives.

[Bellhorn04]

1. I’m confused with you say Ownership didn’t want a stronger competitor in one sentence and then state Ownership mandated the team be competitive in the next.

2. I don’t think you grasp the “look in the mirror” idiomatic expression. Now I realize this is an Internet forum and you could be posting from Norway and English is your fifth language. I’m which case, you’re doing well and I’m impressed…

 

"Competitive" has become a confusing word in the context of the Red Sox now anyway. We were arguably "competitive" the last two years because we were within sniffing distance of a Wild Card spot at the deadline. Those two "competitive" teams both ending up winning 78 games.

 

Maybe that kind of "competitive" is the target for 2024 as well.

[Hugh2]

In terms of fixing the pitching and development approach they have allegedly made many changes in just the last couple years.

 

It’s worth noting, that it would take years to bear fruit. We will never know those changes are good until years down the road.

 

I would also like to point out that they could have put all the right people there, up and down the system, but it’s going to be hard if you’re not drafting a lot of those guys. To some extent it’s a numbers game.

 

I’m curious to see if the drafting strategy changes with Breslow. They did take a much larger amount of pitchers in IFA last year. But again, If those guys pan out it’s going to be 5+++ years or so until they start to contribute.

[Bellhorn04]

In terms of fixing the pitching and development approach they have allegedly made many changes in just the last couple years.

 

It’s worth noting, that it would take years to bear fruit. We will never know those changes are good until years down the road.

 

I would also like to point out that they could have put all the right people there, up and down the system, but it’s going to be hard if you’re not drafting a lot of those guys. To some extent it’s a numbers game.

 

I’m curious to see if the drafting strategy changes with Breslow. They did take a much larger amount of pitchers in IFA last year. But again, If those guys pan out it’s going to be 5+++ years or so until they start to contribute.

 

So it's all "30,000 foot view" "10 year plan" stuff. I honestly think this ownership would absolutely love it if more fans were willing to think of their team in these terms. For one thing it provides a beautiful justification for not spending on things like free agent starting pitchers that might actually help the 2024 team.

[Hugh2]

So it's all "30,000 foot view" "10 year plan" stuff. I honestly think this ownership would absolutely love it if more fans were willing to think of their team in these terms. For one thing it provides a beautiful justification for not spending on things like free agent starting pitchers that might actually help the 2024 team.

 

It’s not excusing anything, it’s just logic. If they take a 16 year old in IFA, or draft an 18 year old. They’re not starting games in the majors for years to come. That’s just reality

 

Could go college pitching, and reduce that lead time. But even then, you’re looking at a few years of building up innings and development.

 

That’s. That’s exactly what developing pitching entails

[Bellhorn04]

It’s not excusing anything, it’s just logic. If they take a 16 year old in IFA, or draft an 18 year old. They’re not starting games in the majors for years to come. That’s just reality

 

Could go college pitching, and reduce that lead time. But even then, you’re looking at a few years of building up innings and development.

 

That’s. That’s exactly what developing pitching entails

 

I get it. It's long term stuff - that frankly may never come to fruition - but is fun to dream about.

[Old Red]

Starting pitching -- it all starts with starters.

 

Doesn't matter if you're a contender looking for a championship boost, or a cellar-dweller beginning a rebuild.

 

Red Sox major mound additions that eventually led to rings (pitchers specifically recruited to fortify playoff rotations): '04 Schilling, '06 Beckett, '10 Lackey, '17 Sale.

 

But most relevant to the 2024 Sox may be the biggest and best acquisition: Pedro Martinez in '98. Boston was coming off a losing season with a 78-84 record -- identical to the '23 Red Sox -- when Dan Duquette swung a trade for the 26-year-old NL Cy Young winner. Pedro instantly catapulted the Sox to 92 wins, back into the playoffs, and changed the culture for decades.

 

Bad teams simply cannot wait until they're somehow good again before investing in really good pitching. A top of the rotation starter changes everything: giving the D confidence, taking the pressure off his O, resting the bullpen, easing stress for management, and from the business standpoint -- exciting the fanbase, sparking a buzz through the media, and making the host city more appealing for future free agents.

 

Agree 100% that you don’t have to wait until the team is good to invest in good pitching. Look how much pitching has gone up in the last few years including this one. Gray got $25M this year at 34 years old when he had never made more than $10M before. Snell, and Monty will end up with handsome paydays too. I’m sure Monty could have been gotten a lot cheaper two years ago then he will end up now. Keep putting off making the rotation better, and the team won’t get better, and then you’re also waisting away Raffy’s prime years too. Wait until 26, 27, 2028 or whatever to go the so called all in is just unacceptable.

[notin]

It’s not excusing anything, it’s just logic. If they take a 16 year old in IFA, or draft an 18 year old. They’re not starting games in the majors for years to come. That’s just reality

 

Could go college pitching, and reduce that lead time. But even then, you’re looking at a few years of building up innings and development.

 

That’s. That’s exactly what developing pitching entails

 

 

But this nothing new and doesn’t mean you take a 16yo and decide “ok we can’t compete until this kid of 24.” Hopefully not. I think this type of thing that I have seen before is more fan logic than team logic. Team front offices know they are in the business of selling entertainment to people through baseball games, and can’t decide to sit out 3-4 years of building competitive teams and actually expect to make any money.

 

I mean, we’ve all acknowledged it’s a business. Well, businesses don’t operate that way. When was the last time Pepsi decided not to produce any soft drinks because Coca Cola had some new trendy flavor they needed to wait out?

[Old Red]

I get it. It's long term stuff - that frankly may never come to fruition - but is fun to dream about.

 

Agree, and I’ve been saying that for two years that the here, and now is what’s most important, and that promising future that some keep dreaming about on here may turn out to be nothing, but a bad, bad dream.

[Old Red]

I'll be blunt too. When I was reading this, the song "The Impossible Dream" started playing in my head.

 

You're basically saying "Here's a bunch of stuff I hope happens some day, and it's gonna be great if and when it does."

 

Let's start with this one:

 

2) Downsize and merge positions within their front office. Too many voices , too many people, paralysis by analisis.

Yeah, that sounds great, but it kinda looks like they don't really have any intention of doing anything of the sort, so I'm not sure why you think it's ever gonna happen.

 

And this one:

 

1) Fix their pitching development approach and system.

That's cake! But seriously, if it was a simple matter to do this I'm kind of thinking it would have been done by now. Bloom was supposed to do it. What happened there? He had the background with the Rays. Shouldn't that have been enough?

 

But here's the killer line:

 

I wouln't blow my load and go past the lux tax line on this team either, until they managed to get every part of this operation running smoothly.

 

If they wait until "every part of this operation is running smoothly", we might as well find something else to occupy us during baseball season the rest of our lives.

Great follow up!