A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Larry Cook]

that was the problem with Ball alright. He certainly didn't work out but if he truly was ranked 13-18 then I have no problem with the pick. It is when we spend our 1st rd pick on a guy ranked over 100 slots lower that I have a problem. I have never said we should take P with all of our 1st rd picks but to those who say we can trade our position player drafts for young controlled TOP SP I say if so why haven't we been able to do so then? It appears obvious we are not going to buck up for a top Sp in FA so how do we intend to get one or two?

 

There are very few top starting pitchers to hit free agency and all the whales fight over them!

 

Most teams that have good young starting pitchers will demand serious talent on the trade market for it!!!

 

The days of stealing a young Pedro are hard unless you have a lot of highly rated prospects

[Duran Is The Man]

 

I'm not going to assume drafting a few more pitchers higher up would translate to us have a top pitching prospect or more. Certainly, it improves the odds, but to me, and it seems like most MLB teams, drafting the player most likely to make an impact, no matter what position they play makes the most sense, and pitchers are higher risks, so they tend to not be drafted as highly, overall.

 

I'm fine with thinking we need to improve our pitching from our system. IMO, we've already started, although some were acquired: Houck, Whitlock, Wink, Crawford, Bello...

 

Here are the amount of pitchers drafted in the top 15:

 

4 in 2023 (11 non pitchers)

4 in '22 (3 in top 14)

7 in '21 (5 in top 12)

6 in '20 (5 in top 14) Pitchers taken shortly after Yorke:Bryce Jarvis, Cade Cavalli, Nick Bitsko, Jared Shuster

 

2 in '19 (#7 Nick Lodolo & Alek Manoa at #11

5 in '18 (4 in top 13: Casey Mize #1, Ryan Weathers #7, Carter Stewart #8 & Grayson Rodriguez #11)

 

Would you say that highly drafted pitchers have done well in the last 5 drafts?

 

If we just trade some everyday prospects for a solid young pitcher, out method is fine. (We used to do that and won rings shortly after many of the biggest trades of prospects: Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, Sale.

 

 

 

You seem to be saying that the Sox are bad at developing pitchers or drafting pitchers is a crapshoot. I’m not sure they’re any more of a crapshoot than any other position.

[moonslav59]

 

 

You seem to be saying that the Sox are bad at developing pitchers or drafting pitchers is a crapshoot. I’m not sure they’re any more of a crapshoot than any other position.

 

I think they are a higher risk.

 

I know we have done far better drafting everyday players than pitchers, even back to the Theo days (maybe not "far better" but better.)

 

I do think we were bad at finding good pitchers and pitcher development, we have done better since the Houck call up. My hopes, when we hired Bloom, was that he'd take some guys with him or find similar guys to do what the Rays seem to do well. I'm not so sure our system, in this area, was better when he left.

 

It's not easy changing a whole system, overnight. IMO, it's easier to make a trade of a few everyday prospects for a young pitcher, while we take the time and make the effort to improve the whole pitcher production process from start to finish. Maybe Brez is the guy- maybe not. I had hopes Bloom was, and we know how he did.

 

The hoarding of prospects did occur for a short while under Ben, but this has gotten to the point of absurdity. To me, if looks like they are planning for 2026, but I am still seeing a chance they are working, as we speak, towards making a big splash trade of prospects for a pitcher.

 

I am not for entering the 2024 draft wit a plan to just draft pitchers for the sake of drafting them. I'm sure some promising pitchers will be there for our slot, so I'm not saying or hinting we could or would be drafting long shot pitchers over a stud SS or CF'er. But I just don't think going into a draft with any position in mind as the major determining factor is not only a mistake, it's a huge one.

 

I have no idea, if a trade will be made, but if it was up to me, I'd start with one of these packages...

 

Mayer & Rafaela plus...?

 

Duran & Yorke plus...?

 

I might think of adding Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, Schreiber or Winckowski, if it can bring us a top SP'er with 3+ years of control.

 

I'm not predicting it, but I have not written that chance off.

 

Who knows, maybe we trade Pivetta to add more budget space and end up signing Monty or Snell, but that seems like a longer shot, to me.

 

[moonslav59]

There are very few top starting pitchers to hit free agency and all the whales fight over them!

 

Most teams that have good young starting pitchers will demand serious talent on the trade market for it!!!

 

The days of stealing a young Pedro are hard unless you have a lot of highly rated prospects

 

Very true.

 

The Mariners gave up a lot to get Castillo, and then they extended him at a reasonable rate. I'm not sure the extension part will be like his was, again.

 

It's hard to know if any, or more importantly, the right GM really likes a guy like Mayer (or Duran & Yorke,) enough to offer a fine pitcher with control. Maybe another team can top our offer. On paper, we seem to have enough prospects pieces to match or beat almost any team looking to make a deal like this. The problem is, the other teams probably like the same top prospects we do. It's not that I dislike Mayer, but many teams have a need at SS, and I like Anthony and Teel better in many ways. I like Bleis, too, and feel his trade value is too low, right now to use him as part of a package, unless the other team insists and we less the rest of the package to compensate for his high ceiling value.

 

On signing big FAs: they have almost always been major to huge overpays, but it does seem to be at absurd levels for the very best. I don't see Gray or ERod's contracts as proportionally higher overpays than Lackey, Sale of the Porcello extensión, so maybe we just need to face the facts and pull the trigger on one guy not being hugely overpaid.

 

I'm not going to cry over spilled milk, but some very good pitchers have signed for about what was expected. Maybe, we could, too (and still stay under the set budget limit- whatever that might be,)

 

[Tedballgame]

 

I think they are a higher risk.

 

I know we have done far better drafting everyday players than pitchers, even back to the Theo days (maybe not "far better" but better.)

 

I do think we were bad at finding good pitchers and pitcher development, we have done better since the Houck call up. My hopes, when we hired Bloom, was that he'd take some guys with him or find similar guys to do what the Rays seem to do well. I'm not so sure our system, in this area, was better when he left.

 

It's not easy changing a whole system, overnight. IMO, it's easier to make a trade of a few everyday prospects for a young pitcher, while we take the time and make the effort to improve the whole pitcher production process from start to finish. Maybe Brez is the guy- maybe not. I had hopes Bloom was, and we know how he did.

 

The hoarding of prospects did occur for a short while under Ben, but this has gotten to the point of absurdity. To me, if looks like they are planning for 2026, but I am still seeing a chance they are working, as we speak, towards making a big splash trade of prospects for a pitcher.

 

I am not for entering the 2024 draft wit a plan to just draft pitchers for the sake of drafting them. I'm sure some promising pitchers will be there for our slot, so I'm not saying or hinting we could or would be drafting long shot pitchers over a stud SS or CF'er. But I just don't think going into a draft with any position in mind as the major determining factor is not only a mistake, it's a huge one.

 

I have no idea, if a trade will be made, but if it was up to me, I'd start with one of these packages...

 

Mayer & Rafaela plus...?

 

Duran & Yorke plus...?

 

I might think of adding Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, Schreiber or Winckowski, if it can bring us a top SP'er with 3+ years of control.

 

I'm not predicting it, but I have not written that chance off.

 

Who knows, maybe we trade Pivetta to add more budget space and end up signing Monty or Snell, but that seems like a longer shot, to me.

 

 

Cannot trade Mayer

[Larry Cook]

 

Cannot trade Mayer

 

I agree! He and bleis are the best hitters I have seen with my own eyes since boegarts!!! I am not saying they are boegarts good, but have tremendous potential

[moonslav59]

 

Cannot trade Mayer

 

IMO, Anthony and Teel are better and play positions we need in 1-2 years.

 

We have Story and Grissom, Reyes and EValdez, Yorke and Romero, Cespedes and Zanetello. We even have Rafaela to play at SS or 2B, if we are in a pinch, but I prefer letting him try and win an OF job.

 

You have to give to get, and we've drafted about 10 SS types in recent years. Teams looking to trade a top SP'er are more likely to demand 2 out of Mayer, Anthony, Teel or maybe even Bleis, so I'm trying to think of ways we can get one by just giving up one, and the one with the most value seems to be Mayer. (Some GMs might demand Anthony.)

 

These trades we accepted by BTV, and had us giving up more value than we received:

 

MIA is rumored to be shopping a SP'er for some offense. I'd like to get either one of these two pitchers:

 

Luzardo (63.3) 3 years of control

Garrett (57.7) 5 years of team control

 

If these values are correct, add Wikelman (5.7,) Perales (3.5) or maybe Mata (2.2) to get Luzardo over Garrett:

 

Mayer (44.5) and Houck (22.1)= 66.6

Casas (50.9) and Rafaela (12.3)= 63.2 (sign Chapman?)

Duran (34), Crawford (24.4) and Wikelman (5.7)= 60.1

 

If we can find a team that wants a 2Bman and likes Yorke, we could try something like this:

 

Duran (34,) Yorke (13.3) and Schreiber (9.7)= 57.0

 

These 3 for 1 deals are often problematic, but since Mayer and Yorke are not 40 man roster players, now, teams add them without creating a major roster crunch. (All the others have options but need to be on the 40.) Perhaps some teams might want 2 out of the 3 non 40 man roster players.

 

Here is an interesting one:

To MIA: Mater, Schreiber, E R-C and Andrew Vaughn (from CWS)

To CWS: Yorke

To BOS: Luzardo

 

I'd do this one:

Luzardo to BOS

Duran, Schreiber and Edgar Quero (CWS) to MIA

Yorke and Wikelman to CWS

 

[moonslav59]

 

I agree! He and bleis are the best hitters I have seen with my own eyes since boegarts!!! I am not saying they are boegarts good, but have tremendous potential

 

 

When did Mayer look like a great hitter?

 

You guys do know, to get a really good pitcher, we have to give up 1 or 2+ really good players back.

 

Would you really prefer to give up Anthony and Teel over Mayer, because that might be the demand, if no Mayer.

 

They will not take back ten 10 value player for Luzardo. Who would you give, instead? (No more than 3 players going to MIA.) Note: they have a 2Bman.

 

51 Casas

48 Bello

45 Mayer

42 Anthony

34 Duran

24 Crawford

22 Houck

22 Bleis

18 Teel

17 Grissom

13 Yorke (have 2Bman)

12 Rafaela

10 Schreiber

9 Winckowski

8 Abreu

6 Wikelman

4 Walter or Perales

[moonslav59]

This doesn't belong on the realistic thread, but here it goes:

 

Mayer & Duran to MIA

Edward Cabrera (from MIA), Yorke & Wikelman to MIL

Luzardo (3 yrs) and Burnes (1 yr) to BOS

[Hitch]

There's zero point us trading for 1 year of Burnes.

[moonslav59]

There's zero point us trading for 1 year of Burnes.

 

I doubt we can ever extend him, so yes.

[mvp 78]

I agree! He and bleis are the best hitters I have seen with my own eyes since boegarts!!! I am not saying they are boegarts good, but have tremendous potential

 

He has notable struggles with offspeed pitching. He k's at a 25% rate.

[Dipre]

 

You seem to be saying that the Sox are bad at developing pitchers or drafting pitchers is a crapshoot. I’m not sure they’re any more of a crapshoot than any other position.

 

Because of the attrition rate inherent to the position.

[mvp 78]

Because of the attrition rate inherent to the position.

 

Surgery is almost becoming a rite of passage for young arms these days.

[moonslav59]

Because of the attrition rate inherent to the position.

 

I thought it was a given that pitchers are higher risks.

[notin]

Maybe they’ll do a Brad Keller one, too…

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/free-agent-profile-sean-manaea.html

[mvp 78]

Maybe they’ll do a Brad Keller one, too…

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/free-agent-profile-sean-manaea.html

 

Heard he has elite velo.

[notin]

Heard he has elite velo.

 

Probably be a direct quote in his profile…

[Hitch]

This is a rumour born on reddit so take with the most ginormous amount of salt (but from an account that called something similar recently) that says Snell to Sox is almost done and will be announced this week.

[mvp 78]

This is a rumour born on reddit so take with the most ginormous amount of salt (but from an account that called something similar recently) that says Snell to Sox is almost done and will be announced this week.

 

That sub also posts tweets from Boston_Strong34 everyday that get 500 upvotes. The account also said that it wouldn't have posted the rumor if they had to either delete their account or be banned from the sub if it didn't come to fruition. A lot of the responses OP made to other redditors seemed to be in jest too. I didn't put much stock into that post while I was eating breakfast.

[notin]

This is a rumour born on reddit so take with the most ginormous amount of salt (but from an account that called something similar recently) that says Snell to Sox is almost done and will be announced this week.

 

 

I have to say, Reddit is a step above fourchan…

[mvp 78]

I have to say, Reddit is a step above fourchan…

 

I was thinking it was closer to Something Awful than /b/.

[Hugh2]

I was thinking it was closer to Something Awful than /b/.

 

The poster said that he doesn’t know anything but he has a friend on the inside. He’s just a guy who knows a guy who is. So, certainly he wouldn’t make that up.

[mvp 78]

The poster said that he doesn’t know anything but he has a friend on the inside. He’s just a guy who knows a guy who is. So, certainly he wouldn’t make that up.

 

IDK, smells Rotten.com to me.

[mvp 78]

I went through the redditor's posting history and the Snell rumor is the only inside info he's ever claimed to have. His account is less than a month old. Fake AF.

[Hitch]

I have to say, Reddit is a step above fourchan…

 

A very, very small step above.

[Hitch]

I went through the redditor's posting history and the Snell rumor is the only inside info he's ever claimed to have. His account is less than a month old. Fake AF.

 

Well that sounds less appealing than what I'd read on Twitter (where I picked up on the rumour). Some of the larger fan accounts were posting about it and it started trending, however, one noted that this guy had called something else right, too. If that's bull, then yeah sounds even less likely to be true.

[mvp 78]

Well that sounds less appealing than what I'd read on Twitter (where I picked up on the rumour). Some of the larger fan accounts were posting about it and it started trending, however, one noted that this guy had called something else right, too. If that's bull, then yeah sounds even less likely to be true.

 

I read through his comments and didn't see any other prognostications. The Snell post is his only post. All his comments are under other posts and don't offer anything new. IDK.

[notin]

The poster said that he doesn’t know anything but he has a friend on the inside. He’s just a guy who knows a guy who is. So, certainly he wouldn’t make that up.

 

My friend on the inside says his friend is a compulsive liar…

[notin]

I went through the redditor's posting history and the Snell rumor is the only inside info he's ever claimed to have. His account is less than a month old. Fake AF.

 

You did far more research than was necessary. I knew it was fake from the first use of the name Reddit…