A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[mvp 78]

You did far more research than was necessary. I knew it was fake from the first use of the name Reddit…

 

But who are you to judge posts like "Craig Breslow has been hitting singles and doubles all free agency and has not missed: He hasn't hit the big home run like signing Yamamoto but has hit on every move. We added some relief depth. Traded Verdugo for prospect and added O'Neil to replace him. Now the Lucas Giolito and Vaughn Grissom we are doing good. Just because we haven't hit a home run yet doesn't mean we have failed this offseason. Breslow is doing big things and getting the wheels moving."

 

Crag "Punch and Judy" Breslow

[moonslav59]

But who are you to judge posts like "Craig Breslow has been hitting singles and doubles all free agency and has not missed: He hasn't hit the big home run like signing Yamamoto but has hit on every move. We added some relief depth. Traded Verdugo for prospect and added O'Neil to replace him. Now the Lucas Giolito and Vaughn Grissom we are doing good. Just because we haven't hit a home run yet doesn't mean we have failed this offseason. Breslow is doing big things and getting the wheels moving."

 

Crag "Punch and Judy" Breslow

 

LOL!

 

There have been a lot of under the radar moves, and one article says we have spent in the top 10, so far this winter.

 

Overall, not counting FAs lost, I think we got more than we gave up.

 

I like O'Neill more than Dugo.

I like Grissom more than Urias

I like all the pitchers we got more than Sale:

Giolito

Campbell

Fitts

Weissert

Criswell

Judice

Max Castillo

 

Nick Robertson, Victor Santos, Drohan and R Fernandez

for

Slaten, Oilveras, Benitez

[Bellhorn04]

LOL!

 

There have been a lot of under the radar moves, and one article says we have spent in the top 10, so far this winter.

 

That's kind of dumb though, because we've dropped more payroll than we've added so far.

[notin]

But who are you to judge posts like "Craig Breslow has been hitting singles and doubles all free agency and has not missed: He hasn't hit the big home run like signing Yamamoto but has hit on every move. We added some relief depth. Traded Verdugo for prospect and added O'Neil to replace him. Now the Lucas Giolito and Vaughn Grissom we are doing good. Just because we haven't hit a home run yet doesn't mean we have failed this offseason. Breslow is doing big things and getting the wheels moving."

 

Crag "Punch and Judy" Breslow

 

You’re right. You can just smell the roses blooming over all of that fertilizer…

[notin]

That's kind of dumb though, because we've dropped more payroll than we've added so far.

 

The one article from MLBTR that solely accounted for money spent of free agents had the Sox in the top ten. Eight actually. But they were not loooking at payroll or even money lost. Just money spent on free agents…

[moonslav59]

That's kind of dumb though, because we've dropped more payroll than we've added so far.

 

The same, last winter, despite spending a ton.

 

One caveat about 2024, the devers extension is not counted.

[Bellhorn04]

The same, last winter, despite spending a ton.

 

One caveat about 2024, the devers extension is not counted.

 

Yes, Devers's AAV rises from 17.5 in 2023 to 31.35 in 2024, an increase of 13.85.

[moonslav59]

Yes, Devers's AAV rises from 17.5 in 2023 to 31.35 in 2024, an increase of 13.85.

 

We don't have many big arb raises, though.

 

cots estimated salary bumps 2023>2024:

 

5.4>8.0 Pivetta (3rd of 3 arbs)

1.2>2.0 McGuire (2 of 3)

.75>1.5 Schreiber (1 of 3)

(We traded Dugo and Urias before their last arbs.)

 

This looks like the least amount of arb raises in a long time for the Sox.

 

[moonslav59]

Updated Sox CBT Budget for 2024 (from cots)

29.1 Devers

23.3 Story

19.3 Giolito

18.0 Yoshida

17.0 to ATL for Sale

16.0 Jansen

8.00 Pivetta (arb est)

7.50 Martin

5.85 O'Neill (arb est)

4.69 Whitlock

2.00 McGuire (arb est)

2.00 Refsnyder

1.50 Schreiber (arb est)

1.00 Criswell

0.75 Hosmer (0.76 in 2025 and then it's done)

 

17.0 Est Player Benefits

9.69 Pre-arb players

5.22 Injured List

2.25 40 man roster in minors

1.67 0-3 year bonus pool

 

TOTAL: $191.78M

 

$45.22 under Tax Line

 

If the reports are true that we are looking to trim more salaries, whether to make room for other salary or to line JH's pocket, maybe we might try to trade Jansen (16.0), Pivetta (8.0), Martin (7.5), Refsnyder (2.0) or McGuire (2.0) and replace them with in system players or not.

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com podcast talked about the Sale trade. Some interesting points:

 

1. Grissom had a collision, last year and missed a few games, but no injury was reported. They said maybe it affected his production and defense.

2. They think maybe the Grissom addition "MIGHT" free up the idea of trading a middle IF depth on the farm (Mayer or Yorke?) They question how the team sees Yorke in their future.

3. If we get 6 good years from Grissom, the trade is a great one.

4. Sale's velo decreased as the year went on, and that was worrisome, but his upside potential seems to be worth more than $10M/1. He will face easier opponents, too.

 

On Giolito:

1. The optout is about the same as a QO, so if he does well, he'll say no to the option, and we can offer hima QO and reep the benefits, if he says no.

2. If he does poorly, it will hurt us.

3. His fastball results dropped almost every month in 2023.

4. He has good upside and has several seasons that match or better Monty's best seasons at 1/2 to 1.3 the cost.

 

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs Projected 2024 WAR:

 

C: 0.8 McGuire (9th best)/0.1 Wong Pretty harsh on Wong

1B: 3.0 Casas (2)

2B: 2.3 Grissom (3) WOW! 3rd best WAR on everyday player list!

SS: 1.7 Story (T5) Kinda low, to me.

3B: 4.7 Devers (1)

LF: 1.7 O'Neill (T5)

CF: 1.3 Duran (T7)

RF: 1.3 Abreu (T7)

DH: 1.9 Yoshida (4)

OF: 0.7 Refsnyder (10)

IF: 0.5 EValdez (11)

UT: 0.3 Rafaela (12)

IF: 0.2 Reyes (13)

 

Pitchers:

2.5 Bello (169 IP)

2.4 Giolito (181)

2.0 Pivetta (161)

1.8 Houck (142)

1.6 Crawford (145)

 

1.0 Martin (66)

0.9 Jansen (64)

0.7 Whitlock (68)

0.5 Wink (67)

0.4 Walter (28) weird

0.3 Schreiber (64)

0.2 Murphy (60), Bernardino (58), Mata (64), Criswell (39)

0.1 Campbell (48)

0.0 Slaten (55), Weissert (44), Llovera (35), Kelly (31), Jacques (28)

0.0 Guerrero (24), Weiss (19), Castillo (17), Fitts (9) & Liu (9)

 

 

Edited January 3, 2024 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Alex Speier, the preeminent Red Sox beat writer, just confirmed what we all suspected:

 

▪ The Sox aren’t treating the 2024 season as the be-all-end-all. (boldfaced heading, just like it was presented in the Boston Globe).

 

In comparison, he offers the Braves, who traded for Sale, and their "playoff-level floor." For Boston, he adds, "Getting to the playoffs would be a coup."

 

Now, in deference to Stats Masterson, he must mean coup definition #2 -- "a notable or successful stroke or move" (and not def. #1, of which any public figure accused of attempting would be appealing appeals as long as possible to stay out of prison).

 

The thing is, most of us rational older posters would be ok with the rebuild -- if Sam Kennedy and company would just. freaking. admit it.

 

SO IF YOU'RE NOT PAYING FOR ANY GOOD PITCHING, WHY EVEN BOTHER TRADING ANY GOOD PROSPECTS FOR IT? Hang on to all your top prospects who will give fans hope and new life (MVP's 2025 line-up actually looked ok, if all the youngsters play well enough to stick).

 

We already know what we're getting with the big league club this year. So let's see what we got on the farm for one more season...

[Hugh2]

Alex Speier, the preeminent Red Sox beat writer, just confirmed what we all suspected:

 

▪ The Sox aren’t treating the 2024 season as the be-all-end-all. (boldfaced heading, just like it was presented in the Boston Globe).

 

In comparison, he offers the Braves, who traded for Sale, and their "playoff-level floor." For Boston, he adds, "Getting to the playoffs would be a coup."

 

Now, in deference to Stats Masterson, he must mean coup definition #2 -- "a notable or successful stroke or move" (and not def. #1, of which any public figure accused of attempting would be appealing appeals as long as possible to stay out of prison).

 

The thing is, most of us rational older posters would be ok with the rebuild -- if Sam Kennedy and company would just. freaking. admit it.

 

SO IF YOU'RE NOT PAYING FOR ANY GOOD PITCHING, WHY EVEN BOTHER TRADING ANY GOOD PROSPECTS FOR IT? Hang on to all your top prospects who will give fans hope and new life (MVP's 2025 line-up actually looked ok, if all the youngsters play well enough to stick).

 

We already know what we're getting with the big league club this year. So let's see what we got on the farm for one more season...

 

 

The reality is. There isn't a silver bullet to fix this team, realistically a good plan wouldn't view this year as the "be-all-end-all" and I certainly don't want any freak out impulsive buys just to look good.

 

However, they're in this position because of years of tightening up and lack of conviction in the market from Bloom to Henry.

 

Are only hope is that Breslow is really really good at his job. And it will probably take him more than one season to turn this organization around.

[mvp 78]

Alex Speier, the preeminent Red Sox beat writer, just confirmed what we all suspected:

 

▪ The Sox aren’t treating the 2024 season as the be-all-end-all. (boldfaced heading, just like it was presented in the Boston Globe).

 

In comparison, he offers the Braves, who traded for Sale, and their "playoff-level floor." For Boston, he adds, "Getting to the playoffs would be a coup."

 

Now, in deference to Stats Masterson, he must mean coup definition #2 -- "a notable or successful stroke or move" (and not def. #1, of which any public figure accused of attempting would be appealing appeals as long as possible to stay out of prison).

 

The thing is, most of us rational older posters would be ok with the rebuild -- if Sam Kennedy and company would just. freaking. admit it.

 

SO IF YOU'RE NOT PAYING FOR ANY GOOD PITCHING, WHY EVEN BOTHER TRADING ANY GOOD PROSPECTS FOR IT? Hang on to all your top prospects who will give fans hope and new life (MVP's 2025 line-up actually looked ok, if all the youngsters play well enough to stick).

 

We already know what we're getting with the big league club this year. So let's see what we got on the farm for one more season...

 

It relied on health AND all the prospects advancing according to schedule. Unfortunately, that's not how prospect pipelines typically work. There ARE injuries. Prospects DO flameout. Sox better hope they can thread that needle.

[Bellhorn04]

Alex Speier, the preeminent Red Sox beat writer, just confirmed what we all suspected:

 

▪ The Sox aren’t treating the 2024 season as the be-all-end-all. (boldfaced heading, just like it was presented in the Boston Globe).

 

In comparison, he offers the Braves, who traded for Sale, and their "playoff-level floor." For Boston, he adds, "Getting to the playoffs would be a coup."

 

Now, in deference to Stats Masterson, he must mean coup definition #2 -- "a notable or successful stroke or move" (and not def. #1, of which any public figure accused of attempting would be appealing appeals as long as possible to stay out of prison).

 

The thing is, most of us rational older posters would be ok with the rebuild -- if Sam Kennedy and company would just. freaking. admit it.

 

SO IF YOU'RE NOT PAYING FOR ANY GOOD PITCHING, WHY EVEN BOTHER TRADING ANY GOOD PROSPECTS FOR IT? Hang on to all your top prospects who will give fans hope and new life (MVP's 2025 line-up actually looked ok, if all the youngsters play well enough to stick).

 

We already know what we're getting with the big league club this year. So let's see what we got on the farm for one more season...

 

Yeah, still not trusting our owners and front office very much. This quasi-competing-while-we-rebuild theme gives them an excellent excuse to keep the payroll down and the profit up for one more year at least.

 

They're still trying to get the hang of the messaging part.

[mvp 78]

The reality is. There isn't a silver bullet to fix this team, realistically a good plan wouldn't view this year as the "be-all-end-all" and I certainly don't want any freak out impulsive buys just to look good.

 

However, they're in this position because of years of tightening up and lack of conviction in the market from Bloom to Henry.

 

Are only hope is that Breslow is really really good at his job. And it will probably take him more than one season to turn this organization around.

 

The most successful teams are able to use financial might to attract and retain talent, but also supplement any remaining holes with their farm (either via trades or promotion). Sox seem to now just ignore the financial aspect of all of this and think they can just grow it internally. I think that limits the overall ceiling and window.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, still not trusting our owners and front office very much. This quasi-competing-while-we-rebuild theme gives them an excellent excuse to keep the payroll down and the profit up for one more year at least.

They're still trying to get the hang of the messaging part.

 

Too many voices that are not on the same page. That's the problem with having such a large FO. Would have been better off saying nothing at all than running with "full throttle" and "World Series" during the Breslow presser.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The reality is. There isn't a silver bullet to fix this team, realistically a good plan wouldn't view this year as the "be-all-end-all" and I certainly don't want any freak out impulsive buys just to look good.

 

However, they're in this position because of years of tightening up and lack of conviction in the market from Bloom to Henry.

 

Are only hope is that Breslow is really really good at his job. And it will probably take him more than one season to turn this organization around.

 

That's why I posted this in the realistic thread. We know they have to sell tickets, but a lot of serious fans at this point could really do without the bullcrap comments from upper management -- from Werner's fool "Throttle" to Sam's "All-In, Absolutely"... even Breslow's "We'll Be Competitive" is deceptive, or at least generic. No more waiting on Bloom to "surround Devers with talent" though...

 

Competitive how, Craig? Not for the top free agents. Not for World Series rings. Maybe to get out of fifth place... at least to field a big league-caliber club that has a chance to win some ballgames?

[Bellhorn04]

Too many voices that are not on the same page. That's the problem with having such a large FO. Would have been better off saying nothing at all than running with "full throttle" and "World Series" during the Breslow presser.

 

I'm guessing Werner deeply regrets that choice of words now. What he said was "full throttle in every area" but of course those two words sounded like "we're spending, baby" to just about everyone.

[Old Red]

I'm guessing Werner deeply regrets that choice of words now. What he said was "full throttle in every area" but of course those two words sounded like "we're spending, baby" to just about everyone.

 

I think Tom was just excited that the Red Sox finally found someone who would actually interview, and except the HOBO job that he just got carried away.

[mvp 78]

I'm guessing Werner deeply regrets that choice of words now. What he said was "full throttle in every area" but of course those two words sounded like "we're spending, baby" to just about everyone.

 

Owners putting their feet in their mouths is why we have to deal with Sammy.

[mvp 78]

I think Tom was just excited that the Red Sox finally found someone who would actually interview, and except the HOBO job that he just got carried away.

 

Werner also does want to spend. Unfortunately, he has a minority stake. If Werner was in control instead of Henry, the payroll would be higher. 100%

[Hugh2]

The most successful teams are able to use financial might to attract and retain talent, but also supplement any remaining holes with their farm (either via trades or promotion). Sox seem to now just ignore the financial aspect of all of this and think they can just grow it internally. I think that limits the overall ceiling and window.

 

It's also about how they spend. They went over the cap as recently as two years ago now but it's because they spend $10-$20 million on many players for a year or two, and never take a big swing at the big fish.

 

John Henry effectively got burned by David Price, and then Dave talked him into Chris Sale and he got burned again. Now he has decided that he will never dance again. He's effectively become an incel of the sports ownership world.

[mvp 78]

It's also about how they spend. They went over the cap as recently as two years ago now but it's because they spend $10-$20 million on many players for a year or two, and never take a big swing at the big fish.

 

John Henry effectively got burned by David Price, and then Dave talked him into Chris Sale and he got burned again. Now he has decided that he will never dance again. He's effectively become an incel of the sports ownership world.

 

They went over on accident on a last place team!

 

The signs were there last season when he got pissy about Cohen and stuck up for small market teams.

[Bellhorn04]

It's also about how they spend. They went over the cap as recently as two years ago now but it's because they spend $10-$20 million on many players for a year or two, and never take a big swing at the big fish.

 

John Henry effectively got burned by David Price, and then Dave talked him into Chris Sale and he got burned again. Now he has decided that he will never dance again. He's effectively become an incel of the sports ownership world.

 

But the joke's on us, because John just keeps getting richer off the Sox while putting crappy teams on the field.

[Hugh2]

They went over on accident on a last place team!

 

The signs were there last season when he got pissy about Cohen and stuck up for small market teams.

 

I had a hard time believing a professional organization could "accidentally go over, I always figured they made the decision to go for it, which was very peculiar considering the bought and sold.

 

Regardless, it was very telling that Bloom supposedly had a budget of 225 million last year. Intestinally 8 million below the cap. It was almost as if Ownership was saying, you're an idiot, we don't trust you so we are putting your budget below the tax line so you can't eff this up.

[Hugh2]

But the joke's on us, because John just keeps getting richer off the Sox while putting crappy teams on the field.

 

He won't be laughing when revenues take a hit. You can live off of your past success, but not in perpetuity, I think this is the year he really starts to feel it if the organization doesn't turn things around.

 

This also makes him look really dumb. Look at the front page of his website. The Red Sox sucking makes him look dumb and hurts his brand.

 

Fenway Sports Group

[mvp 78]

I had a hard time believing a professional organization could "accidentally go over, I always figured they made the decision to go for it, which was very peculiar considering the bought and sold.

 

Regardless, it was very telling that Bloom supposedly had a budget of 225 million last year. Intestinally 8 million below the cap. It was almost as if Ownership was saying, you're an idiot, we don't trust you so we are putting your budget below the tax line so you can't eff this up.

 

They "went for it" after dealing Vaz? They were actively shopping JD and Sale, but Bloom couldn't pull the trigger because of his fear of losing a trade.

 

Bloom f'd up. That's all there is too it.

[mvp 78]

He won't be laughing when revenues take a hit. You can live off of your past success, but not in perpetuity, I think this is the year he really starts to feel it if the organization doesn't turn things around.

 

This also makes him look really dumb. Look at the front page of his website. The Red Sox sucking makes him look dumb and hurts his brand.

 

Fenway Sports Group

 

The website still has a picture of Xander on the Who We Are page. Talk about not being able to read the room...

[Dipre]

I'll form an opinion one way or the other once the roster is finished. Too much making stuff up for my taste, specially from you MVP, since you're an expert in calling people out for teaching at "Make s*** up university". You're the reason I distrust red hair whenever I see it