Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[sk7326]

On paper this is a good deal Boston - trading Schreiber for a minor league prospect with some actual pathway to being a (back end but still) starter.

 

Law's writeup (#7 in the Royals system)

 

Sandlin started the year in Low A as a 22-year-old college product, signing in the 11th round out of the University of Oklahoma in 2022. He was appropriately dominant before he moved up to High A, where he made two starts and then suffered an oblique injury that ended his season. He’s got stuff, 94-96 mph with a 55 slider and average changeup, and a simple delivery that should let him continue to throw strikes. He just needs to do this against a more suitable level of competition.

 

He is definitely a candidate to move quick, quicker still if it is the pen.

[moonslav59]

Does Campbell have better control than mata?

 

Probably.

 

4.1 BB/9 in 29 IP MLB (small sample)

2.2 in AA (37 IP)

2.8 in A+ (52 IP)

2.6 in college (220 IP, mostly as a SP)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sandlin reportedly has a mid-rotation ceiling -- which instantly ties him with Perales and Winkelman as best starting prospect in the system. So Breslow just increased our mid-rotation potential by 50%! How can that be a bad thing...

 

Is-tree-noisy-falling-on-a-bare-pope-in-the-woods question: If a team has zero #1 or #2 starters, isn't that entire narrative negated if they still choose to open the season and complete a three-game series?

 

Story said he doesn't see any reason why this club can't go all the way. Instead of mocking him, who wants to cite any reason it can?

 

I'll start: Story reverts to 2018/19 Trevor (in Fenway), Raffy reverts into 2019 Devers, Giolito has a 2019 year, Cora reverts to 2018 AC... these are all things that have happened at least once. Then, to win a ring: Casas morphs into 2010 Votto, Grissom develops into 1982 Molitor, Rafaela becomes 2016 JBJ, but most importantly -- Bello evolves into 1985 Dwight Gooden.

[jad]

Sandlin reportedly has a mid-rotation ceiling -- which instantly ties him with Perales and Winkelman as best starting prospect in the system. So Breslow just increased our mid-rotation potential by 50%! How can that be a bad thing...

 

Is-tree-noisy-falling-on-a-bare-pope-in-the-woods question: If a team has zero #1 or #2 starters, isn't that entire narrative negated if they still choose to open the season and complete a three-game series?

 

Story said he doesn't see any reason why this club can't go all the way. Instead of mocking him, who wants to cite any reason it can?

 

I'll start: Story reverts to 2018/19 Trevor (in Fenway), Raffy reverts into 2019 Devers, Giolito has a 2019 year, Cora reverts to 2018 AC... these are all things that have happened at least once. Then, to win a ring: Casas morphs into 2010 Votto, Grissom develops into 1982 Molitor, Rafaela becomes 2016 JBJ, but most importantly -- Bello evolves into 1985 Dwight Gooden.

 

Yup. And every free agent agrees to sign for the minimum, and all the prospects are above average ...

[moonslav59]

We probably need 3 out of 4 of each set to go right: (Health for just about all)

 

Devers has a near career year

Story hits close to what he did w COL

Casas hits like he did after May.

Yoshida to comeback.

 

O'Neill to hit like a couple years ago.

Grissom to reach his promise

Duran to hit like last year, but for 550+ PAs

Wong or McGuire to be average

 

Rafaela or Abreu to step up.

Jansen & Martin to stay healthy

Wink and Whit to be strong pen arms

The rest of the pen does not embarrass us.

 

Giolito to pitch like before.

Bello to reach his promise.

Pivetta to pitch like he did second half of '23.

Houck & Crawford to pitch like average 4/5 slot SP'ers

 

So, basically 3 out of 4, 4 times.

[Larry Cook]

Will we move Duran to San Diego for a similar high A starter with mid rotation starter stuff???

[moonslav59]

Will we move Duran to San Diego for a similar high A starter with mid rotation starter stuff???

 

He should bring back much more.

 

BTV

 

34 Duran

10 Schreiber

 

[Hugh2]

Will we move Duran to San Diego for a similar high A starter with mid rotation starter stuff???

 

Well let’s see. 5 years of team control for a starting MLB outfielder is probably astronomically higher than a relief pitcher who’s had one good year with 3 years of team control.

[notin]

Sandlin reportedly has a mid-rotation ceiling -- which instantly ties him with Perales and Winkelman as best starting prospect in the system. So Breslow just increased our mid-rotation potential by 50%! How can that be a bad thing...

 

Is-tree-noisy-falling-on-a-bare-pope-in-the-woods question: If a team has zero #1 or #2 starters, isn't that entire narrative negated if they still choose to open the season and complete a three-game series?

 

Story said he doesn't see any reason why this club can't go all the way. Instead of mocking him, who wants to cite any reason it can?

 

I'll start: Story reverts to 2018/19 Trevor (in Fenway), Raffy reverts into 2019 Devers, Giolito has a 2019 year, Cora reverts to 2018 AC... these are all things that have happened at least once. Then, to win a ring: Casas morphs into 2010 Votto, Grissom develops into 1982 Molitor, Rafaela becomes 2016 JBJ, but most importantly -- Bello evolves into 1985 Dwight Gooden.

 

They play better baseball. That’s the reason. They won 78 games last year despite going 4-14 against the White Sox, Rockies, Cardinals, Pirates and Nationals - 5 very bad teams. That means their record against the rest of MLB was 74-70, and that includes the beating they got from Tampa.

 

Improve against the bad teams. And improve against Tampa…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They play better baseball. That’s the reason. They won 78 games last year despite going 4-14 against the White Sox, Rockies, Cardinals, Pirates and Nationals - 5 very bad teams. That means their record against the rest of MLB was 74-70, and that includes the beating they got from Tampa.

 

Improve against the bad teams. And improve against Tampa…

 

Let's not assume the same squad is returning and just needs to improve against a handful of teams. Excluding the six clubs you list, it's impressive they had a winning record vs. the other 23 despite atrocious defense, inept baserunning, poor contact hitters and half a rotation.

 

Maybe it's a testament to the contributions of guys like Turner, Verdugo, Duvall, Sale and Paxton -- who have been replaced this winter by O'Neill, Grissom and Giolito. Nothing against those three, but the rest of the 26 better be better or there's realistically little chance Boston can even repeat 78 wins.

 

What am I missing (about the Red Sox... I know I'm missing a lot of other mental and physical attributes)?

[Bellhorn04]

Let's not assume the same squad is returning and just needs to improve against a handful of teams. Excluding the six clubs you list, it's impressive they had a winning record vs. the other 23 despite atrocious defense, inept baserunning, poor contact hitters and half a rotation.

 

Maybe it's a testament to the contributions of guys like Turner, Verdugo, Duvall, Sale and Paxton -- who have been replaced this winter by O'Neill, Grissom and Giolito. Nothing against those three, but the rest of the 26 better be better or there's realistically little chance Boston can even repeat 78 wins.

 

What am I missing (about the Red Sox... I know I'm missing a lot of other mental and physical attributes)?

 

Just wait till you see what The Alchemist does with our rotation.

[Larry Cook]

Let's not assume the same squad is returning and just needs to improve against a handful of teams. Excluding the six clubs you list, it's impressive they had a winning record vs. the other 23 despite atrocious defense, inept baserunning, poor contact hitters and half a rotation.

 

Maybe it's a testament to the contributions of guys like Turner, Verdugo, Duvall, Sale and Paxton -- who have been replaced this winter by O'Neill, Grissom and Giolito. Nothing against those three, but the rest of the 26 better be better or there's realistically little chance Boston can even repeat 78 wins.

 

What am I missing (about the Red Sox... I know I'm missing a lot of other mental and physical attributes)?

 

Last year, we had the second worst defense in all of baseball and you are correct, we had major base running problems!

 

Seems like we just improve in those two areas and we can get a couple extra wins this year!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Last year, we had the second worst defense in all of baseball and you are correct, we had major base running problems!

 

Seems like we just improve in those two areas and we can get a couple extra wins this year!

 

A couple?!? The front office told Werner if the Sox just had a "normal" defense, they would've had 11 more wins!

[Hugh2]

All the Red Sox have to do is hit, pitch, run, and play defense better. Besides that they’re an excellent team

[Bellhorn04]

Meanwhile our objective friend Mr. Projections just sits there saying they're an 80 win team, and nothing can budge him...outside of signing a quality starter.

[notin]

Let's not assume the same squad is returning and just needs to improve against a handful of teams. Excluding the six clubs you list, it's impressive they had a winning record vs. the other 23 despite atrocious defense, inept baserunning, poor contact hitters and half a rotation.

 

Maybe it's a testament to the contributions of guys like Turner, Verdugo, Duvall, Sale and Paxton -- who have been replaced this winter by O'Neill, Grissom and Giolito. Nothing against those three, but the rest of the 26 better be better or there's realistically little chance Boston can even repeat 78 wins.

 

What am I missing (about the Red Sox... I know I'm missing a lot of other mental and physical attributes)?

 

I think that you assume players all maxed out last year and the best they can do is repeat.

 

Does the whole “the team didn’t replace the production from Player X” really carry that much weight? No one even knows if Player X can do it…

[Bellhorn04]

I think that you assume players all maxed out last year and the best they can do is repeat.

 

Does the whole “the team didn’t replace the production from Player X” really carry that much weight? No one even knows if Player X can do it…

 

Mr. Projections has done all the work so we don't have to.

[notin]

Mr. Projections has done all the work so we don't have to.

 

Do I want to ask about Mr. Projections?

[Bellhorn04]

Do I want to ask about Mr. Projections?

 

I think the consensus of all the pre-season projection systems is about 80 wins for us. And it's a perfectly reasonable number. With an error range of about 10% on either side, I assume.

[moonslav59]

I think the consensus of all the pre-season projection systems is about 80 wins for us. And it's a perfectly reasonable number. With an error range of about 10% on either side, I assume.

 

So, 72-88, then.

 

I'd say 70-86. (mid point 78)

[Bellhorn04]

So, 72-88, then.

 

I'd say 70-86. (mid point 78)

 

You're thinking Three-Peat!

[notin]

I think the consensus of all the pre-season projection systems is about 80 wins for us. And it's a perfectly reasonable number. With an error range of about 10% on either side, I assume.

 

That’s a really big range.

 

Predicting 80 wins plus or minus 10% is not much different than predicting the sun will rise in the East tomorrow. 50% of the league will definitely settle in that range…

[moonslav59]

A couple?!? The front office told Werner if the Sox just had a "normal" defense, they would've had 11 more wins!

 

OAA had us last, and it wasn't close:

-50 BOS

-37 CIN

-29 MIA

-21 LAA

 

When you are as bad as the #27 & #28 teams, combined, that is horrific! That's way more than 2 losses.

 

50 more outs, our pitchers had to face, over average. 90 more outs than the best team!

 

Up the middle D:

30th in CF (-2) Let's hope we see more of Rafaela or Abreu than Duran in CF. We could improve here, by a lot, if Duran stays in LF.

30th at 2B (-13) Grissom should bring us near the norm.

23rd at SS (-3) Story brought us from worst to 23rd in just a couple months. We can be top 5-10 at SS in '24.

 

The corners:

29th at 1B (-10) Let's hope Casas continues to show the improvement he showed over 2023.

28th at 3B (-12) Devers has had better seasons than this. How will he do in '24? Sox in '22 were at 18th place (-4) and 2nd in 2019 at +17!

24th in LF (-10) Less Yoshida in LF should move us up, here.

9th in RF (0) the loss of Dugo could hurt, but Abreu looks okay and O'Neill might be, too.

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think that you assume players all maxed out last year and the best they can do is repeat.

 

 

But post #8793 was way typed way back yesterday afternoon...

[Bellhorn04]

That’s a really big range.

 

Predicting 80 wins plus or minus 10% is not much different than predicting the sun will rise in the East tomorrow. 50% of the league will definitely settle in that range…

 

That's not exactly how it works though. A team that's projected for 90 wins +/- 10% would have a range of 81-99. You'd much rather have that projection.

 

I'm only guessing that they use 10%, maybe it's lower than that.

[notin]

That's not exactly how it works though. A team that's projected for 90 wins +/- 10% would have a range of 81-99. You'd much rather have that projection.

 

I'm only guessing that they use 10%, maybe it's lower than that.

 

 

I’m hoping it’s lower. If they project 50% +/- 10%, they could squeeze the whole league in there…

[harmony]

I think that you assume players all maxed out last year and the best they can do is repeat.

 

Does the whole “the team didn’t replace the production from Player X” really carry that much weight? No one even knows if Player X can do it…

For example, Seattle looks to replace the 3.2 fWAR posted in 162 games last year by third baseman Eugenio Suarez, whom the Mariners traded to the Diamondbacks in November.

 

Enter third baseman Luis Urias, whom the Mariners acquired in a trade with the Red Sox. ZiPS projects Urias with 2.0 WAR in 119 games but projects Suarez with 1.3 WAR in 136 games.

 

Did the Mariners downgrade?

 

Urias is expected to platoon with Josh Rojas at third base.

[Randy Red Sox]

I think the consensus of all the pre-season projection systems is about 80 wins for us. And it's a perfectly reasonable number. With an error range of about 10% on either side, I assume.

 

i agree that the total wins will be around 80 and that the team will remain in the mushy middle and still have an outside shot at the last wild card under the expanded playoff format. Hence they won't be dealing away any assets at the deadline because they will saying they are still in it.

[moonslav59]

For example, Seattle looks to replace the 3.2 fWAR posted in 162 games last year by third baseman Eugenio Suarez, whom the Mariners traded to the Diamondbacks in November.

 

Enter third baseman Luis Urias, whom the Mariners acquired in a trade with the Red Sox. ZiPS projects Urias with 2.0 WAR in 119 games but projects Suarez with 1.3 WAR in 136 games.

 

Did the Mariners downgrade?

 

Urias is expected to platoon with Josh Rojas at third base.

 

That kind of example happens to every team, at several positions, every year. Even returning players often have wildly different projections and final numbers from one year to the next.

 

I project our offense from 2023 to 2024 will improve at C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B. It will be about the same in LF & RF. It will drop at DH and CF.

 

I project our defense will improve slightly at C, 1B, 3B and LF. It will improve a lot at SS, 2B and hopefully CF (Rafaela wins the job). It may get worse in RF.

 

Our pitching is hard to project.

 

Gio & Bello vs Bello, Sale and Paxton at the 1-2 slots? Even?

 

Pivetta, Crawford & Houck vs Pivetta, Crawford & Houck at the 3-4-5 slots? Even?

 

Whitlock, Kluber plus 16 games of "openers" vs Whitlock, Murphy, Fitts & Walter? Even?

 

(Remember, even= sucks.)

 

The pen?

 

1/2: Jansen & Martin vs Jansen 3.63 in 45 IP & Martin 1.05 in 51 IP -- probably worse

 

3/4: Winckowski & Whitlock vs Wink 2.92 in 83 & Pivetta 3.07 in 56 IP-- likely worse

 

5/6: Campbell & Bernardino vs Bernardino 3.46 in 42 & Schreiber 3.83 in 45-- likely the same

 

7/8: Slaten & Mata vs Murphy 4.91 in 48 & Bleier 5.28 in 31-- maybe the same

 

after 8: Murphy, Fitts, Weissert, Z Kelly, Criswell, Walter, Guerrero -- maybe better

2023:

5.46 Llovera (30 IP)

4.26 Jacques (25)

6.26 Walter (23)

1.66 Crawford (22)

7.29 Brasier (21)

6.27 K Ort (19)

6.23 Garza (17)

9.45 Kluber (13)

6.55 Joely (11)

6.55 Robertson (11)

[dgalehouse]

They play better baseball. That’s the reason. They won 78 games last year despite going 4-14 against the White Sox, Rockies, Cardinals, Pirates and Nationals - 5 very bad teams. That means their record against the rest of MLB was 74-70, and that includes the beating they got from Tampa.

 

Improve against the bad teams. And improve against Tampa…

 

Accentuate the positive , eliminate the negative is always a good plan. Being able to do it is another matter.