Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Hitch]

Gabrielle Starr

@gfstarr1

·

40m

Sam Kennedy told us that Dustin Pedroia FaceTimed him, Alex Cora, several of the assistant GMs at dinner last night to point out the remaining free agents on the market and make his feelings known about what the Red Sox should do…

 

The video -

 

Would be weird for Kennedy to put this info out there if they didn't have something cooking...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not sure O'Neillllll will get to the 979 PA's Turner and Duvall got last year. Would be quite the season though. I think Grissom will beat that OPS number. He should figure out 2B. I'm not worried. I think OF could be interesting. Abreu is a huge question mark. He hit well, but can't keep up that torrid pace. Can Duran stay healthy and repeat what he did? Rafaela has a great glove, but is it just a AAAA bat?

 

For a perennial doormat, Rafaela should be in the perfect situation to win the starting job: by all reports, he already has one of the top gloves in baseball, and also starred on offense in the minors the past two years.

 

I worry more the Sox will play an inferior centerfielder instead of a sure thing like Ceddanne, who will help the club improve overall. Like with Bradley, I could care less if he has holes in his swing -- because face it, half the roster already swings from their asses, and can't catch or run, either.

[Hitch]

For a perennial doormat, Rafaela should be in the perfect situation to win the starting job: by all reports, he already has one of the top gloves in baseball, and also starred on offense in the minors the past two years.

 

I worry more the Sox will play an inferior centerfielder instead of a sure thing like Ceddanne, who will help the club improve overall. Like with Bradley, I could care less if he has holes in his swing -- because face it, half the roster already swings from their asses, and can't catch or run, either.

 

Depends how they view the season. If they're booting, it wouldn't make sense to burn one of his years.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Depends how they view the season. If they're booting, it wouldn't make sense to burn one of his years.

 

Don't. Make me. Lose. CONTROL!!!!

[notin]

Unreliable:

 

@Feinsand

Blake Snell has an offer on the table from the Yankees, per source, though the Angels and Giants remain possibilities for the reigning NL Cy Young winner.

 

We’re at that stage in the offseason where you look at the big remaining free agents and realize many will just go back to their team from last year.

 

But Texas is out on Montgomery.

 

San Diego has been cutting payroll all off-season and can’t/won’t afford Snell.

 

Chapman and Toronto? No buzz about it and they might have bigger needs. But I could see it.

 

I expect Bellinger to return to the Cubs…

[notin]

Depends how they view the season. If they're booting, it wouldn't make sense to burn one of his years.

 

Sure it would. Give him some exposure to MLB pitching and see whether or not he really is a solution.

[notin]

Don't. Make me. Lose. CONTROL!!!!

 

He didn’t say anything THAT optimistic…

[Bellhorn04]

We’re at that stage in the offseason where you look at the big remaining free agents and realize many will just go back to their team from last year.

But Texas is out on Montgomery.

 

San Diego has been cutting payroll all off-season and can’t/won’t afford Snell.

 

Chapman and Toronto? No buzz about it and they might have bigger needs. But I could see it.

 

I expect Bellinger to return to the Cubs…

 

Is this historically a regular occurrence for guys who sign late?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He didn’t say anything THAT optimistic…

 

Can we demote Bello and Casas, too, so we won't waste any premature adulation on them? They must have some options left.

[Hugh2]

Hard to expect that for various reasons with Mata. First, he's perpetually injured. Second, he's forced into an MLB role and can't figure it out in AAA unless he's snuck through waivers. If I were Crag, I'd try putting him through waivers at some point.

 

I'm not running to the betting markets and throwing money on it, I just don't like he has a bad arm (talent wise). He just didn't cut it as a starter and has a hard time locating the ball, when you can shorten your arsenal and focus on only throwing a two pitches opposed to 3/4 sometimes guys take to that well. It's not a terribly unlikely story.

 

Look, we're going to find out one way or another this year. He's out of options and he's finally going to be moving to the bullpen.

[moonslav59]

As a fan it's more fun when your team is bashing its way to wins. But the O is the area most underrated in its neglect this winter.

 

It would be great if all last season's first-year Red Sox improve -- but progress isn't linear, and the sophomore jinx can be very real for batters who don't adjust as well as the editors of pitchers' books on hitters.

 

Story has to be better, because only good teams can carry a glove man who bats .227 with a sub-.700 OPS, which is what he's done in Boston so far.

 

For the new guys, would you take .287 BA, .716 OPS and a game-winning grand slam out of Grissom? Those are feats posted by Pablo Reyes in '23. Can O'Neill produce 44 homers and 154 RBIs? Those are marks combined by Turner and Duvall last year. Verdugo wasn't quite a star, but his career 15% K-rate was half of O'Neill's 30%.

 

As for Devers, we'd gladly accept a repeat of 33-100-.851. But most who watched last year would agree that a better approach to situational hitting is needed. However, with even less big bats in the order to protect Raffy, opposing pitchers have even less reason to throw him anything in the zone. At least the front office can invest in longer bats...

 

It won't be easy replacing Turner and Duvall, but remember, Duvall just gave us 353 PAs. Dugo was 3rd in PAs for the team, but posted a 100 OPS+.

 

So, we have to replace 979 PAs by Turner (114 OPS+) and Duvall 119 OPS+)- call is a 116 OPS+ and 602 PAs from Dugo at 100 OPS+. Combined, that's nearly 1600 PAs at an OPS+ of about a 110 OPS+. That looks daunting, but don't forget to look at who else we are replacing:

 

323 PAs of Kike at a 62 OPS+

206 from Arroyo at 70

112 from Chang at 45 (Yes, that bad)

109 from Urias at 91

~160 from Tapia 90, DHam 22, Alfaro 5 and CHam -49.

That's over 900 PAs at an awful OPS+ of maybe around a 60 or 65.

 

I'm not sure what the total OPS+ lost is, but my guess is, it is around 100 in 2500 PAs.

 

How do we replace those 2500 PAs?

 

Maybe...

PAs Player 3 year OPS+ (2023 OPS+)

+500 Grissom 105 (78- still better than Arroyo)

+450 O'Neill 120 (94- could equal the 100 by Dugo)

+400 Story 95 (52- he just has to be closer or over 95 than 52.)

+200 Duran 96 (121- kinda "dicey, too.)

+100 Casas 126 (129)

+100 Reyes 91 (94)

Here is where it gets dicey...

+350 Abreu 132 (SSS)

+350 Rafaela 78 (SSS)

+50 3rd catcher

 

[moonslav59]

We’re at that stage in the offseason where you look at the big remaining free agents and realize many will just go back to their team from last year.

 

But Texas is out on Montgomery.

 

San Diego has been cutting payroll all off-season and can’t/won’t afford Snell.

 

Chapman and Toronto? No buzz about it and they might have bigger needs. But I could see it.

 

I expect Bellinger to return to the Cubs…

 

I think Snell goes to the Yanks, Bellinger to SFG and Monty is a total guess- maybe TOR.

 

I'm thinking the best we can hope for is Clevinger or Bauer. Sad, but maybe even these are pipe dreams.

[notin]

As a fan it's more fun when your team is bashing its way to wins. But the O is the area most underrated in its neglect this winter.

 

It would be great if all last season's first-year Red Sox improve -- but progress isn't linear, and the sophomore jinx can be very real for batters who don't adjust as well as the editors of pitchers' books on hitters.

 

Story has to be better, because only good teams can carry a glove man who bats .227 with a sub-.700 OPS, which is what he's done in Boston so far.

 

For the new guys, would you take .287 BA, .716 OPS and a game-winning grand slam out of Grissom? Those are feats posted by Pablo Reyes in '23. Can O'Neill produce 44 homers and 154 RBIs? Those are marks combined by Turner and Duvall last year. Verdugo wasn't quite a star, but his career 15% K-rate was half of O'Neill's 30%.

 

As for Devers, we'd gladly accept a repeat of 33-100-.851. But most who watched last year would agree that a better approach to situational hitting is needed. However, with even less big bats in the order to protect Raffy, opposing pitchers have even less reason to throw him anything in the zone. At least the front office can invest in longer bats...

 

 

Why exactly is O’Neill expected to post numbers from Turner and Duvall? Will the Sox be using one less player this year?

 

And more important - why is the goal to recreate the 2023 offense?

[notin]

I think Snell goes to the Yanks, Bellinger to SFG and Monty is a total guess- maybe TOR.

 

I'm thinking the best we can hope for is Clevinger or Bauer. Sad, but maybe even these are pipe dreams.

 

I still think Montgomery is possible, and definitely think he is more likely than Bauer.

 

This does leave the big mystery around Chapman. If the Sox signed him and traded Duran, they’d get their RHH, better defense, and hopefully a decent arm back for Duran…

[Bellhorn04]

Why exactly is O’Neill expected to post numbers from Turner and Duvall? Will the Sox be using one less player this year?

 

And more important - why is the goal to recreate the 2023 offense?

 

The question is how is it better?

[notin]

The question is how is it better?

 

For starters, Grissom will outhit the Arroyo/Reyes/warm body crew that manned second last year.

 

The Sox offense last year was basically average. In think they might take a slight step forward this year..,

[Bellhorn04]

Duvall and Turner were 4 and 5 in Offensive WAR last year.

[Dipre]

Duvall and Turner were 4 and 5 in Offensive WAR last year.

 

So you're saying it's impossible for the current crew to outdo last year's offensive production?

[Bellhorn04]

So you're saying it's impossible for the current crew to outdo last year's offensive production?

 

Not impossible, but I'm not really seeing the upgrades.

[notin]

The question is how is it better?

 

And I think a lot of people overlook that Kike Hernandez and his OPS+ of 62 is no longer penciled into the starting lineup…

[notin]

Not impossible, but I'm not really seeing the upgrades.

 

Really?

 

Last year the starting SS/2b combo featured such offensive luminaries as Kike Hernandez, Yu Chang, Christian Arroyo, Pablo Reyes and Luis Urias. Is Story and Grissom better or worse than that combo?

[notin]

Duvall and Turner were 4 and 5 in Offensive WAR last year.

 

Duvall was replaced in the lineup by Duran, who was second on the team in oWAR…

[mvp 78]

Depends how they view the season. If they're booting, it wouldn't make sense to burn one of his years.

 

IDK, I wouldn't worry about years of control for Rafaela. He's not a max contract guy that you have to manage the years for. You will go crazy if you start doing it for every player. Just play the guys when they are ready.

[mvp 78]

We’re at that stage in the offseason where you look at the big remaining free agents and realize many will just go back to their team from last year.

 

But Texas is out on Montgomery.

 

San Diego has been cutting payroll all off-season and can’t/won’t afford Snell.

 

Chapman and Toronto? No buzz about it and they might have bigger needs. But I could see it.

 

I expect Bellinger to return to the Cubs…

 

I heard somewhere that Toronto was cutting budget too? Jays just signed IKF to play 3B.

 

Bellinger is the most likely of the bunch to go back to the previous team.

[mvp 78]

Is this historically a regular occurrence for guys who sign late?

 

I don't believe so.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Why exactly is O’Neill expected to post numbers from Turner and Duvall? Will the Sox be using one less player this year?

 

And more important - why is the goal to recreate the 2023 offense?

 

I don't know any Sox fans that think O'Neill with replace both Turner and Duvall, but apparently the front office does, since -- after losing those two -- Tyler's the only batter with any MLB power success they've added.

 

And no one said the goal is to replicate last season; my post about concerns was in reply to someone who said "Offense should be better."

 

Again -- even if you expect every single hitter will improve, does the offense appear to have more or less depth than last season?

 

If Cora is intent to bat a righty after Devers, how much protection will he get from Story or O'Neill, who each strikeout in 30% of their ABs?

[Bellhorn04]

Really?

 

Last year the starting SS/2b combo featured such offensive luminaries as Kike Hernandez, Yu Chang, Christian Arroyo, Pablo Reyes and Luis Urias. Is Story and Grissom better or worse than that combo?

 

We don't really know yet. Story was horrific with the bat last year and Grissom has 236 MLB PA's.

 

Not that I'm opposed to optimism.

 

What do the projections say, though. I suspect they're not super rosy.

[notin]

We don't really know yet. Story was horrific with the bat last year and Grissom has 236 MLB PA's.

 

Not that I'm opposed to optimism.

 

What do the projections say, though. I suspect they're not super rosy.

 

Sox got a .267 wOBA from the SS position last year. Story is projected to get between .312 and .323. Sox 2b last year had a .306 wOBA last year. Grissom’s projections run from .320 to .337…

[Bellhorn04]

Sox got a .267 wOBA from the SS position last year. Story is projected to get between .312 and .323. Sox 2b last year had a .306 wOBA last year. Grissom’s projections run from .320 to .337…

 

What do the projections say about the whole team.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sox got a .267 wOBA from the SS position last year. Story is projected to get between .312 and .323. Sox 2b last year had a .306 wOBA last year. Grissom’s projections run from .320 to .337…

 

Would these kind of stats be acceptable for Grissom's first full season: .290ish with 15 HRs, about 10 SBs, and close to .800 OPs?

 

That would give him Masa appeal...