Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[mvp 78]

Let's not go overboard. I do like him as an addition, but I have never thought he was a necessity. I did and still do prefer him over the oft-injured Snell. But I have also said repeatedly I can understand passing on him in favor of next year's free agent class...

 

The same class next year that every other team will also bid on? The prices won't be any cheaper and some of the pitchers may sign an extension before then.

[mvp 78]

What this team needs? Effective innings.

 

What Montgomery provides? Effective innings.

 

So if this team needs effective innings, and Montgomery can provide them, he is, by definition, a need.

 

Every team needs that. I don't know why he hasn't signed unless he's really holding out until the last second. That seems to be what Boras is doing with all 4 guys.

[notin]

What this team needs? Effective innings.

 

What Montgomery provides? Effective innings.

 

So if this team needs effective innings, and Montgomery can provide them, he is, by definition, a need.

 

He is the leader in IP over the last 3 years among the remaining free agents, ahead of Urias, Snell, Greinke and Rich Hill in that order.

 

After that, the drop off goes to the injured Brandon Woodruff and the thoroughly unexciting Zack Davies...

[mvp 78]

He's been in the league seven years, and has reached 3 fWAR twice. I can accept four times if you want to count 2020 and even the 2.7 fWAR from 2021. That's close enough.

 

Similar pitchers like ERod (4 years $20mill AAV) and Zack Eflin (3 years $13.3mill AAV) show the range for his talent. If the Sox can get him ona deal like that, great. But so far, they can't. Because while I don't know what Boras is valuing him at, I somehow suspect it is greater than $20mill AAV. Probably closer to $25mill AAV for six years. Would you go 6 years $150mill for Montgomery? To me, I dislike the 6 years more than the $25mill AAV.

 

And I'm just guessing on numbers. What if the actual ask is for more years and a bigger AAV?

17 - 2.6

18 - TJS

19 - TJS

20 - 0.9 * 3 = 2.7

21 - 3.2

22 - 2.7

23 - 4.3

 

If you average his non-TJS years, he has a 3.1 fWAR average per year.

[mvp 78]

It's not my favorite strategy either. But I can't ignore that it is a real option. And we as fans are not responsible for the multi-million dollar deals that Breslow (theoretically) makes, whereas he has to be at least somewhat accountable...

 

This just waves away all arguments that us plebes can have.

[notin]

The same class next year that every other team will also bid on? The prices won't be any cheaper and some of the pitchers may sign an extension before then.

 

I know. In fact, I think several of them will be more expensive. Of course, that might be because Fried, Burnes, Buehler, and Wheeler are all better pitchers than Montgomery (albeit with a few legitimate health concerns).

 

If the Sox truly wanted t adopt a "wait until next year" policy, the smart might would be a pre-emptive strike to sign Brandon Woodruff. The question is, though, is that a white flag on 2024? How does that look from a PR standpoint?

[notin]

This just waves away all arguments that us plebes can have.

 

We're fans, not Vulcans. If we were ruled by logic, none of us would be here...

[mvp 78]

I know. In fact, I think several of them will be more expensive. Of course, that might be because Fried, Burnes, Buehler, and Wheeler are all better pitchers than Montgomery (albeit with a few legitimate health concerns).

 

If the Sox truly wanted t adopt a "wait until next year" policy, the smart might would be a pre-emptive strike to sign Brandon Woodruff. The question is, though, is that a white flag on 2024? How does that look from a PR standpoint?

 

I'm fine with a Woodruff signing and have advocated for it this offseason. They've done it with lesser pitchers so my guess it that his demands are a bit higher than what we may be comfortable with for an injured pitcher.

[notin]

17 - 2.6

18 - TJS

19 - TJS

20 - 0.9 * 3 = 2.7

21 - 3.2

22 - 2.7

23 - 4.3

 

If you average his non-TJS years, he has a 3.1 fWAR average per year.

 

That's not much different than ERod, who, on seasons he does not vacate the team for any publicly-known reason, has put up 3.0, 3.9 and 3.7 fWAR in the past 4 years.

 

If Montgomery can be had for the same deal as ERod, its a no-brainer. But I also think if he would accept that, he would have signed somewhere by now.

 

If Montgomery wants $150mill / 6 years, is it a good deal?

[mvp 78]

That's not much different than ERod, who, on seasons he does not vacate the team for any publicly-known reason, has put up 3.0, 3.9 and 3.7 fWAR in the past 4 years.

 

If Montgomery can be had for the same deal as ERod, its a no-brainer. But I also think if he would accept that, he would have signed somewhere by now.

 

If Montgomery wants $150mill / 6 years, is it a good deal?

 

150/6 is a little high, but not unreasonable. I don't think the ERod comp is terrible and I don't know why the Sox didn't pursue him more. I'd go 22 AAV, so 132/6 max.

[notin]

150/6 is a little high, but not unreasonable. I don't think the ERod comp is terrible and I don't know why the Sox didn't pursue him more. I'd go 22 AAV, so 132/6 max.

 

 

I have no word on any offers Montgomery has received, but I suspect he has rejected similar offers to $132/6. MLBTR did predict $150/6 way back when, but I think they have been under on most deals so far...

[moonslav59]

I don't look at a Monty signing as making the Sox a playoff team this year nor do I consider giving him market value as any sign of Boston going all-in.

 

Instead, it's a natural move the Sox should make to upgrade a hideous starting rotation, put a more legitimate product on the field, and most importantly, provide innings to stabilize the entire pitching staff -- allowing others to develop as either starters or relievers (and for those who do go to the bullpen, give them proper rest to prevent burn-out, and preserve arms for when the Sox really are contenders).

 

Well said.

 

I prefer adding a solid #2 SP'er than a #4 or 5.

 

The idea that he pushes Houck or Crawford to the pen is a double plus.

[moonslav59]

That's not much different than ERod, who, on seasons he does not vacate the team for any publicly-known reason, has put up 3.0, 3.9 and 3.7 fWAR in the past 4 years.

 

If Montgomery can be had for the same deal as ERod, its a no-brainer. But I also think if he would accept that, he would have signed somewhere by now.

 

If Montgomery wants $150mill / 6 years, is it a good deal?

 

If the ERod money is the best he'll be offered, he'll take it.

 

I'm not sure why he'd get $150M/6.

 

172/7 Nola (Hometown discount)

75/3 Gray

80/4 ERod

39/3 Giolito

37/2 Stroman

32/2 Wacha

45/3 Lugo

[notin]

Well said.

 

I prefer adding a solid #2 SP'er than a #4 or 5.

 

The idea that he pushes Houck or Crawford to the pen is a double plus.

 

Any move or moves that keeps Houck, Whitlock and Winckowski in the bullpen is a huge plus. Just not sure on what Montgomery wants...

[mvp 78]

I have no word on any offers Montgomery has received, but I suspect he has rejected similar offers to $132/6. MLBTR did predict $150/6 way back when, but I think they have been under on most deals so far...

 

And if he signs for more, it's ok. It would just be bad if he signs elsewhere for less. Remains to be seen what happens.

[moonslav59]

Any move or moves that keeps Houck, Whitlock and Winckowski in the bullpen is a huge plus. Just not sure on what Montgomery wants...

 

Nobody is.

 

It's easy to say, "I'd give him $110M/5 or $120M/6," but if he ends up with $84M/4 or $100M/5, I will see it as a major lost chance.

 

[notin]

And if he signs for more, it's ok. It would just be bad if he signs elsewhere for less. Remains to be seen what happens.

 

Ever wonder if players/agents use spite as a tiebreaker for similar offers?

 

Like if the Sox make the best offer with Montgomery at, let's say $132/6. And then another team not normally in the upper payroll tier like Arizona or Baltimore or Kansas City (hypothetical example, no need to comment on these teams) makes the same offer, would the player ever think "Boston should be offering more money than KC, since they are way richer. f*** them. KC clearly appreciates me more so I am signing there!!"?

[Bellhorn04]

Ever wonder if players/agents use spite as a tiebreaker for similar offers?

 

Like if the Sox make the best offer with Montgomery at, let's say $132/6. And then another team not normally in the upper payroll tier like Arizona or Baltimore or Kansas City (hypothetical example, no need to comment on these teams) makes the same offer, would the player ever think "Boston should be offering more money than KC, since they are way richer. f*** them. KC clearly appreciates me more so I am signing there!!"?

 

I seriously doubt spite would ever be the deciding factor. Usually the s***** teams have to overpay to sign anyone. We're one of the s***** teams now, of course.

[mvp 78]

I seriously doubt spite would ever be the deciding factor. Usually the s***** teams have to overpay to sign anyone. We're one of the s***** teams now, of course.

 

We're the squishy middle. I wouldn't say we're at the s***** stage yet.

[notin]

I seriously doubt spite would ever be the deciding factor. Usually the s***** teams have to overpay to sign anyone. We're one of the s***** teams now, of course.

 

 

I have no idea. It is something I wondered. Usually because a lot of players seem to put the larger market teams on their no trade clauses. It's not like they don't want to play for the Sox or Yankees or Mets; I suspect they don't want to play for them for the same money they took to play for the Royals or A's or Pirates...

[notin]

Nobody is.

 

It's easy to say, "I'd give him $110M/5 or $120M/6," but if he ends up with $84M/4 or $100M/5, I will see it as a major lost chance.

 

 

Another factor with Montgomery might be that he has had TJ surgery once already. There was a time not to long ago when a study revealed TJ surgery lasts about 600 innings/3 years until the pitcher needs another one. Since his last surgery, Montgomery has pitched 572 innings.

 

Think any teams are hesitant to commit 6 or more years to him for this reason? (And have surgical techniques been improved to the point where this limit is outdated?)

[mvp 78]

Another factor with Montgomery might be that he has had TJ surgery once already. There was a time not to long ago when a study revealed TJ surgery lasts about 600 innings/3 years until the pitcher needs another one. Since his last surgery, Montgomery has pitched 572 innings.

 

Think any teams are hesitant to commit 6 or more years to him for this reason? (And have surgical techniques been improved to the point where this limit is outdated?)

 

If that's the case, good luck to Buehler (2 TJS) and Fried (1 TJS and forearm tightness in '23).

[moonslav59]

Another factor with Montgomery might be that he has had TJ surgery once already. There was a time not to long ago when a study revealed TJ surgery lasts about 600 innings/3 years until the pitcher needs another one. Since his last surgery, Montgomery has pitched 572 innings.

 

Think any teams are hesitant to commit 6 or more years to him for this reason? (And have surgical techniques been improved to the point where this limit is outdated?)

 

That is certainly a worry.

 

I doubt anyone give him 6, but if his top offer is $100M/5, I'd offer him $110M/6 to bring down the AAV and seal the deal.

[notin]

If that's the case, good luck to Buehler (2 TJS) and Fried (1 TJS and forearm tightness in '23).

 

I don't know if it is the case, but if so, Corbin Burnes could benefit immensely...

[Bellhorn04]

If that's the case, good luck to Buehler (2 TJS) and Fried (1 TJS and forearm tightness in '23).

 

But those are two of the prize catches in the glorious 2024-25 offseason!

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know if it is the case, but if so, Corbin Burnes could benefit immensely...

 

If his advanced metrics don't decline sharply again this year...

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Breslow says it’s “really, really difficult to say” how close the Red Sox are to having their Opening Day roster. He says the team remains engaged in free agency and trade markets.

 

Offseason is over.

[mvp 78]

But those are two of the prize catches in the glorious 2024-25 offseason!

 

I hope we will have a bountiful harvest next fall just like in North Korea.

[moonslav59]

I hope we will have a bountiful harvest next fall just like in North Korea.

 

You crack me up!

 

(When you are not riding my ass... lol.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

@alexspeier

Breslow says it’s “really, really difficult to say” how close the Red Sox are to having their Opening Day roster. He says the team remains engaged in free agency and trade markets.

 

Offseason is over.

 

It's really, really difficult to say, because if he told us what he really, really knows, we'd all give him a difficult time.