Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Hitch]

Werner speaks....

 

On the November day the Red Sox introduced Craig Breslow as their new chief baseball officer, team chairman Tom Werner made headlines when he vowed the team would be “full throttle” when it came to its approach this offseason.

 

The remark seemed to indicate that the team would again be willing to spend big in free agency in an effort to improve the roster following two last-place finishes.

 

Instead, two months later, the team has signed just one notable free agent — starter Lucas Giolito — and fans are frustrated at the lack of investment on the part of the Sox, especially after expectations were raised.

 

“Maybe that wasn’t the most artful way of saying what I wanted to say,” Werner told MassLive by phone Tuesday afternoon, “which is that we’re going to be pressing all levers to improve the team. In the end, nobody’s happy with our performance the last few years. Some years, we go after somebody who is about to be a free agent, or was a free agent, as it pertains to Trevor Story or Raffy Devers.

 

“We felt very strongly that we were going to compete for (Japanese free agent Yoshinobu) Yamamoto’s services. But in the end, he went to another team. But we felt were in the mix and we were going to be competitive. We certainly aren’t happy with the current roster as it was at the end of last year, so if I was going to say it again, I would say that we’re going to be pressing all levers and weren’t going to be happy with just one (method) — that includes free agency, trades or talent from Triple and Double A. I think that’s really what I meant.

 

“In the end, we don’t have a line in terms of our payroll that we look at as much as trusting that Craig (Breslow) is going to deliver on his assurance that we’re going to be competitive.”

 

Reminded that the Red Sox had only one significant free agent signing this winter, Werner was asked if he regretted setting high expectations for Breslow, a first-year executive.

 

“I don’t think John (Henry) or I or Sam (Kennedy) have put additional pressure on Craig,” said Werner. “He came in knowing full well that we have a strong farm system and a need for a stronger competitive team, especially one focused on (improved) starting pitching. I don’t think we put additional pressure on him. If I set the bar high a little bit, as I said, it probably wasn’t the most artful comment.

 

“But on the other hand, what’s important is our record at the end of the season. Whoever spends the most amount of money in free agency doesn’t necessarily hoist the World Series trophy at the end of the year.”

 

Citing club policy to not reveal its internal payroll goal, Werner declined to specifically cite a hard-and-fast number. But he maintained that Breslow has the latitude to spend.

 

“We’d rather not advertise our internal conversations,” said Werner. “I think it’s more about what recommendations does Craig have to improve the team. Obviously, if we had been successful with Yamamoto, that would have been something we’d have been pleased about.”

 

Ticket prices at Fenway Park are among the highest in the game, and Werner was asked whether that was inconsistent with the team’s current payroll, which for now sits right around $200 million, some $35 million or so shy of the first CBT (competitive balance tax) threshold of $237 million.

 

“I think we need to be competitive,” countered Werner. “We were competitive for the early part of the season last year and then obviously the wheels came off. But I think the fans expect us to be relentless about a competitive team. The thinking (behind) the trade that we made (in moving) Chris Sale — and I have great fondness for Chris Sale — was not about shedding salary as much as it was having more competitive pitching going forward and more control of competitive pitching.

 

“I guess the message is that we are confident that we’re going to field a competitive team and that we’re going to let Craig do what he does best, which is to build exactly that.”

 

Last January, the team held a Town Hall forum as part of its Winter Weekend events, during which Henry, Kennedy, Alex Cora and then chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom were roundly booed by frustrated fans. This year, team has scrapped plans for a Town Hall. Werner said he has plans to attend Winter Weekend in Springfield this weekend. A source added that Henry was not expected to attend because of a “scheduling issue.”

 

“I’m not hiding from anybody,” said Werner, “and I share the frustration that fans have about our performance the last two years and we’re resolute about being competitive this year.”

[Bellhorn04]

With the latest assurances of commitment, they've put themselves in a position that if the payroll is below 230, and the W-L record is below .500 again, how can they not be...ashamed, or something?

[vjcsmoke]

Werner speaks....

 

What I hear is a huge amount of backpedaling after Werner was caught lying/hand caught in the cookie jar.

 

There's an interesting correlation between Red Sox spending and the team's competitive record.

 

In general the lower the Red Sox' payroll the worse its record has been.

 

Note that from 2016 to 2018 the Red Sox made the playoffs 3 consecutive years, culminating with a WS championship win but each year our payroll was over 200m.

 

 

The only outlier to this rule is 2021 the year immediately following the epidemic.

 

I presume the market hadn't caught up to normal yet but the Red Sox had an overall payroll under 160m and made the playoffs. I believe this is ownership's wet dream - to pay less but still get paid for playoff money.

 

Notice that this was also the only year a Bloom run team made the playoffs.

 

After that notice with the reduced payrolls, mandated by ownership, you can see the Red Sox finished back to back sub .500 records and missing the playoffs.

 

Paying the extra for a couple of premium players in the past made the difference competitively yet ownership doesn't care.

 

They envy Tampa Bay's success with lower payroll investments so they want to turn the Red Sox into Tampa North without understanding that we're a big market team and economics just doesn't work that way.

Edited January 16, 2024 by vjcsmoke

[moonslav59]

What I hear is a huge amount of backpedaling after Werner was caught lying/hand caught in the cookie jar.

 

There's an interesting correlation between Red Sox spending and the team's competitive record.

 

In general the lower the Red Sox' payroll the worse its record has been.

 

Note that from 2016 to 2018 the Red Sox made the playoffs 3 consecutive years, culminating with a WS championship win but each year our payroll was over 200m.

 

[ATTACH]1220[/ATTACH]

 

The only outlier to this rule is 2021 the year immediately following the epidemic.

 

I presume the market hadn't caught up to normal yet but the Red Sox had an overall payroll under 160m and made the playoffs. I believe this is ownership's wet dream - to pay less but still get paid for playoff money.

 

Notice that this was also the only year a Bloom run team made the playoffs.

 

After that notice with the reduced payrolls, mandated by ownership, you can see the Red Sox finished back to back sub .500 records and missing the playoffs.

 

Paying the extra for a couple of premium players in the past made the difference competitively yet ownership doesn't care.

 

They envy Tampa Bay's success with lower payroll investments so they want to turn the Red Sox into Tampa North without understanding that we're a big market team and economics just doesn't work that way.

 

It was not just 2021. After the great Dodger purge (CC, AGon & Beckett,) we did NOT come close to replacing their value, the following ring year- 2013.

 

Opening Day payrolls:

$168M '10

$164M '11

$175M '12

$154M '13

 

Yes, 2004's payroll was larger than pre-2004 and 2005-2006.

Yes, 2007 was more than '08 & '09.

Yes, 2018 was more than ever, but it was less than 2019, which was DD's worst year by record.

 

2013 and 2021 were "low points" in budgets, when compared to surrounding seasons.

 

When you look at end of year 40 man roster budgets, one thing is common: after each ring year, the budget dropped:

 

$130>117 "04>'05

$155>147 '07>'08

$176>168 '13>'14

$230>228 '18>'19

 

(It went up $30M from '21 to '22.)

 

[vjcsmoke]

 

When you look at end of year 40 man roster budgets, one thing is common: after each ring year, the budget dropped:

 

$130>117 "04>'05

$155>147 '07>'08

$176>168 '13>'14

$230>228 '18>'19

 

(It went up $30M from '21 to '22.)

 

 

Good catch. Yup it's almost like ownership was saying, ok we won enough to satisfy the fans? Ok, now let's dial it back and rake in some profits, then repeat the cycle again. Almost like a yo-yo.

 

Do enough to reel in the fans, then dump salary and rake in more money the next year.

 

Only now there's no more yo-yo, it's just, we're gonna skimp on spending completely, "until the kids grow up into stars."

 

But you know what happens as soon as those kids deliver wins and deserve bigger salaries?

 

"Well we can't afford to keep them." They will trade them away or let them walk. They did it with Betts and Bogaerts they will continue to do it with whoever else becomes the Red Sox next big star.

 

Back to the yo-yo down of mediocrity! And the vicious cycle just keeps going!

[jad]

Good catch. Yup it's almost like ownership was saying, ok we won enough to satisfy the fans? Ok, now let's dial it back and rake in some profits, then repeat the cycle again. Almost like a yo-yo.

 

Do enough to reel in the fans, then dump salary and rake in more money the next year.

 

Only now there's no more yo-yo, it's just, we're gonna skimp on spending completely, "until the kids grow up into stars."

 

But you know what happens as soon as those kids deliver wins and deserve bigger salaries?

 

"Well we can't afford to keep them." They will trade them away or let them walk. They did it with Betts and Bogaerts they will continue to do it with whoever else becomes the Red Sox next big star.

 

Back to the yo-yo down of mediocrity! And the vicious cycle just keeps going!

 

As long as customers keep handing over money, thaat's what they can expect/

[moonslav59]

Good catch. Yup it's almost like ownership was saying, ok we won enough to satisfy the fans? Ok, now let's dial it back and rake in some profits, then repeat the cycle again. Almost like a yo-yo.

 

Do enough to reel in the fans, then dump salary and rake in more money the next year.

 

Only now there's no more yo-yo, it's just, we're gonna skimp on spending completely, "until the kids grow up into stars."

 

But you know what happens as soon as those kids deliver wins and deserve bigger salaries?

 

"Well we can't afford to keep them." They will trade them away or let them walk. They did it with Betts and Bogaerts they will continue to do it with whoever else becomes the Red Sox next big star.

 

Back to the yo-yo down of mediocrity! And the vicious cycle just keeps going!

 

I'm fine with cycles that include rings.

 

I remember thinking that 2021 might have done more harm than good to "the plan."

 

It bought two more years of the sham.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What I hear is a huge amount of backpedaling after Werner was caught lying/hand caught in the cookie jar.

 

 

Sounds like he's still shoveling it, even when trying to edit himself:

 

"if I was going to say it again, I would say that we’re going to be pressing all levers"...

 

Shouldn't Tom push or pull a lever? Then press a button?

 

Someone that into TV who sets himself up for a Sheldon loses credibility.

[dgalehouse]

Maybe Werner was talking about full throttle with the concerts at Fenway, not the baseball team.

[moonslav59]

Sounds like he's still shoveling it, even when trying to edit himself:

 

"if I was going to say it again, I would say that we’re going to be pressing all levers"...

 

Shouldn't Tom push or pull a lever? Then press a button?

 

Someone that into TV who sets himself up for a Sheldon loses credibility.

 

All levers seems to imply financially, too.

[Larry Cook]

All levers seems to imply financially, too.

 

Can you really “press” a lever???

 

Is that possible??

[Randy Red Sox]

Werner speaks....

 

thanks for posting that. interesting reading but unfortunately a lot of BS too. How does Henry have a scheduling conflict??

[Randy Red Sox]

Good catch. Yup it's almost like ownership was saying, ok we won enough to satisfy the fans? Ok, now let's dial it back and rake in some profits, then repeat the cycle again. Almost like a yo-yo.

 

Do enough to reel in the fans, then dump salary and rake in more money the next year.

 

Only now there's no more yo-yo, it's just, we're gonna skimp on spending completely, "until the kids grow up into stars."

 

But you know what happens as soon as those kids deliver wins and deserve bigger salaries?

 

"Well we can't afford to keep them." They will trade them away or let them walk. They did it with Betts and Bogaerts they will continue to do it with whoever else becomes the Red Sox next big star.

 

Back to the yo-yo down of mediocrity! And the vicious cycle just keeps going!

 

you are dead right sadly

[notin]

What I hear is a huge amount of backpedaling after Werner was caught lying/hand caught in the cookie jar.

 

There's an interesting correlation between Red Sox spending and the team's competitive record.

 

In general the lower the Red Sox' payroll the worse its record has been.

 

Note that from 2016 to 2018 the Red Sox made the playoffs 3 consecutive years, culminating with a WS championship win but each year our payroll was over 200m.

 

[ATTACH]1220[/ATTACH]

 

The only outlier to this rule is 2021 the year immediately following the epidemic.

 

I presume the market hadn't caught up to normal yet but the Red Sox had an overall payroll under 160m and made the playoffs. I believe this is ownership's wet dream - to pay less but still get paid for playoff money.

 

Notice that this was also the only year a Bloom run team made the playoffs.

 

After that notice with the reduced payrolls, mandated by ownership, you can see the Red Sox finished back to back sub .500 records and missing the playoffs.

 

Paying the extra for a couple of premium players in the past made the difference competitively yet ownership doesn't care.

 

They envy Tampa Bay's success with lower payroll investments so they want to turn the Red Sox into Tampa North without understanding that we're a big market team and economics just doesn't work that way.

 

Economics doesn’t work that way? No idea what you do for a living but I’m not comfortable telling a billionaire commodities trader how finance works.

 

The Rays’ Way absolutely can work when done properly, but so far the Red Sox aren’t doing it that way. And it’s nota sure with a huge margin for error.

 

The Sox so far missed put on the part where you identify your star players and extend them ridiculously early. Anyone remember how far into his career Evan Longoria was when the the Rays extended him? EIGHT GAMES!! And they didn’t even wait that long with Matt Moore (2 games!!), a contract that showed just how risk-free these deals can be.

 

The Sox started doing this with Whitlock, but waiting 5 years on Betts and Bogaerts was just flat out ignorant.

 

Personally I don’t care if they win with a cheap team. As long as they put together a good team. Free agency is largely just for PR anyway. But Henry has to start treating his younger star players like he treats his trophy wives - lock ‘em up in their early 20s, use them for all you got, and then cut ‘em loose at 30 to be someone else’s problem…

Edited January 17, 2024 by notin

[moonslav59]

Economics doesn’t work that way? No idea what you do for a living but I’m not comfortable telling a billionaire commodities trader how finance works.

 

The Rays’ Way absolutely can work when done properly, but so far the Red Sox aren’t doing it that way. And it’s nota sure with a huge margin for error.

 

The Sox so far missed put on the part where you identify your star players and extend them ridiculously early. Anyone remember how far into his career Evan Longoria was when the the Rays extended him? EIGHT GAMES!! And they didn’t even wait that long with Matt Moore (2 games!!), a contract that showed just how risk-free these deals can be.

 

The Sox started doing this with Whitlock, but waiting 5 years on Betts and Bogaerts was just flat out ignorant.

 

Personally I don’t care if they win with a cheap team. As long as they put together a good team. Free agency is largely just for PR anyway. But Henry has to start treating his younger star players like he treats his trophy wives - lock ‘em up in their early 20s, use them for all you got, and then cut ‘em loose at 30 to be someone else’s problem…

 

They never really went the Rays' Way all the way.

 

Everything they do is half-ass.

[notin]

They never really went the Rays' Way all the way.

 

Everything they do is half-ass.

 

Well, Epstein was all about Moneyball, but with money. He exploited the underexploited stats, abilities and rules. And did so at a premium…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Well, Epstein was all about Moneyball, but with money. He exploited the underexploited stats, abilities and rules. And did so at a premium…

 

So Theo actually honored the name Moneyball, while the A's and Rays were No-Pays.

[Dipre]

So Theo actually honored the name Moneyball, while the A's and Rays were No-Pays.

 

Moneynots.

[Dipre]

Economics doesn’t work that way? No idea what you do for a living but I’m not comfortable telling a billionaire commodities trader how finance works.

 

The Rays’ Way absolutely can work when done properly, but so far the Red Sox aren’t doing it that way. And it’s nota sure with a huge margin for error.

 

The Sox so far missed put on the part where you identify your star players and extend them ridiculously early. Anyone remember how far into his career Evan Longoria was when the the Rays extended him? EIGHT GAMES!! And they didn’t even wait that long with Matt Moore (2 games!!), a contract that showed just how risk-free these deals can be.

 

The Sox started doing this with Whitlock, but waiting 5 years on Betts and Bogaerts was just flat out ignorant.

 

Personally I don’t care if they win with a cheap team. As long as they put together a good team. Free agency is largely just for PR anyway. But Henry has to start treating his younger star players like he treats his trophy wives - lock ‘em up in their early 20s, use them for all you got, and then cut ‘em loose at 30 to be someone else’s problem…

 

Also my POV

[moonslav59]

Well, Epstein was all about Moneyball, but with money. He exploited the underexploited stats, abilities and rules. And did so at a premium…

 

One aspect of "monetball" is not moneyball.

[Bellhorn04]

Economics doesn’t work that way? No idea what you do for a living but I’m not comfortable telling a billionaire commodities trader how finance works.

 

The Rays’ Way absolutely can work when done properly, but so far the Red Sox aren’t doing it that way. And it’s nota sure with a huge margin for error.

 

The Sox so far missed put on the part where you identify your star players and extend them ridiculously early. Anyone remember how far into his career Evan Longoria was when the the Rays extended him? EIGHT GAMES!! And they didn’t even wait that long with Matt Moore (2 games!!), a contract that showed just how risk-free these deals can be.

 

The Sox started doing this with Whitlock, but waiting 5 years on Betts and Bogaerts was just flat out ignorant.

 

Personally I don’t care if they win with a cheap team. As long as they put together a good team. Free agency is largely just for PR anyway. But Henry has to start treating his younger star players like he treats his trophy wives - lock ‘em up in their early 20s, use them for all you got, and then cut ‘em loose at 30 to be someone else’s problem…

 

Free agency is not largely just for PR.

[Dipre]

Free agency is not largely just for PR.

 

Yes, it mostly is. It's 90% fluff, 10% signings, which is why I think he means.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, it mostly is. It's 90% fluff, 10% signings, which is why I think he means.

 

What exactly do you mean by 90% fluff?

[Dipre]

What exactly do you mean by 90% fluff?

 

Check out mlbtraderumors, and tell me how many articles they write about "so and so is interested in so and so" and how many articles are about actual signings.

[notin]

Free agency is not largely just for PR.

 

 

It really is.

 

Far too often it turns into management showing a willingness to spend go their audience.

 

The entire process involves overpaying a player in his 30s for what he did in his 20s, usually for another team. That’s more PR than sound team-building strategy…

[notin]

Yes, it mostly is. It's 90% fluff, 10% signings, which is why I think he means.

 

There is that aspect as willl, although that’s a more recent addition to the process…

[mvp 78]

Well, Epstein was all about Moneyball, but with money. He exploited the underexploited stats, abilities and rules. And did so at a premium…

 

The premium of monster feeding.

[mvp 78]

Free agency is not largely just for PR.

 

If it is, I guess the Sox are just doomed to suck for the next 5-6 years since their pitching pipeline is dreadful and they have no other way to acquire starters since they are unwilling to leverage their top prospects in trades. Yay.

[moonslav59]

If it is, I guess the Sox are just doomed to suck for the next 5-6 years since their pitching pipeline is dreadful and they have no other way to acquire starters since they are unwilling to leverage their top prospects in trades. Yay.

 

Maybe, someday...

That is the best hope Sox fans have, right now.

[Bellhorn04]

It really is.

 

Far too often it turns into management showing a willingness to spend go their audience.

 

The entire process involves overpaying a player in his 30s for what he did in his 20s, usually for another team. That’s more PR than sound team-building strategy…

 

So we'll just deny that Seager, Semien and Eovaldi had much to do with the Rangers being the current champions. Yeah, I'm sure they'd be champs without those guys.

 

The Sox would probably still be without a title since 1918 without their free agents.

 

You're arguing on principles and trying to gloss over reality.