A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Old Red]

So what about Dalbec - would you classify him as good, decent, or lousy? You seemed to be suggesting he qualifies as good, in spite of his replacement level stats.

 

Hosmer would have been better than what the current SUSPECT Casas has given the Red Sox so far, and cheap too.

[Bellhorn04]

Hosmer would have been better than what the current SUSPECT Casas has given the Red Sox so far, and cheap too.

 

Ah well, it doesn't matter much Red. Swapping Casas for Hosmer would be the proverbial move of deck chairs on the Titanic.

[Nick]

Ever notice our Yankee fan is not here when his team is struggling? And he is the first one to come with the news when our player is hurt.

 

Judge was out last night with hip injury suffered in Thursday's game. Maybe nothing serious.

 

Cordero is back to AAA.

Edited April 29, 2023 by Nick

[notin]

I would classify Dalbec as a change of scenery guy at this point. Not unrealistic to think he can become a good second division starter for a small market team where the pressure is lower. I’d say it’s more probable than not he’s not a regular big leaguer at this point. But he has value…some value

 

I think Boston is a platoon bat who could probably benefit from some positional versatility. I don’t think MLB starter is in his future, simply because he still struggles mightily against RHP. But that doesn’t mean he couldn’t be a major league player…

[notin]

Hosmer would have been better than what the current SUSPECT Casas has given the Red Sox so far, and cheap too.

 

You mean Casas hasn’t conquered MLB yet? He’s had 75 at bats!!! What’s this going to take? 80? 92?

 

If he’s not a top ten MVP candidate by 110 at bats, DFA!

[Bellhorn04]

You mean Casas hasn’t conquered MLB yet? He’s had 75 at bats!!! What’s this going to take? 80? 92?

 

If he’s not a top ten MVP candidate by 110 at bats, DFA!

 

This team has a much bigger problem to deal with - the absolutely horrific starting rotation.

[Bellhorn04]

Ever notice our Yankee fan is not here when his team is struggling? And he is the first one to come with the news when our player is hurt.

 

Judge was out last night with hip injury suffered in Thursday's game. Maybe nothing serious.

 

Cordero is back to AAA.

 

The Yankees might very well finish 4th in the division this year.

[notin]

This team has a much bigger problem to deal with - the absolutely horrific starting rotation.

 

Then why are so many folks complaining about Casas?

[Bellhorn04]

Then why are so many folks complaining about Casas?

 

Good one.

[Old Red]

You mean Casas hasn’t conquered MLB yet? He’s had 75 at bats!!! What’s this going to take? 80? 92?

 

If he’s not a top ten MVP candidate by 110 at bats, DFA!

 

Wow! Going overboard with this one. The key word in my statement was SO FAR, and SO FAR Casas has looked nothing like a top prospect, but a top Suspect. I think most everyone would have expected a little bit more out of Casas at this point with all the hype that preceded him to Boston. Lots on here are counting on the Calvary from the improved in the rankings farm to lead the Red Sox to the promise land, which might not come this year, or next year, but maybe 2026. Casas is one of the top hopes, and hyped players, and Bello too, and SO FAR they haven’t done much of anything to warrant that. If that don’t happen where will the Red Sox be then? Maybe a losing team, and last place in the Div. SO FAR that’s where they are.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Then why are so many folks complaining about Casas?

 

Because it's no use complaining about the absolute worst starting rotation in the big leagues that's not a flock of lame ducks soon flying south to Las Vegas...

 

The current Red Sox front office won't sign, draft or trade for any frontline pitching, so why even bother talkingsox about it.

[notin]

Wow! Going overboard with this one. The key word in my statement was SO FAR, and SO FAR Casas has looked nothing like a top prospect, but a top Suspect. I think most everyone would have expected a little bit more out of Casas at this point with all the hype that preceded him to Boston. Lots on here are counting on the Calvary from the improved in the rankings farm to lead the Red Sox to the promise land, which might not come this year, or next year, but maybe 2026. Casas is one of the top hopes, and hyped players, and Bello too, and SO FAR they haven’t done much of anything to warrant that. If that don’t happen where will the Red Sox be then? Maybe a losing team, and last place in the Div. SO FAR that’s where they are.

 

 

Gee, in the first post I quoted, you capitalized “suspect” but not “so far.” How could anyone miss that and not see your point?

 

Casas is 13 for 75. Not good, but even a couple lucky grounders or different scorer calls, and his BA goes up almost 70 points. One good day at the plate and his BA goes up even more.

 

The good about Casas is he is taking walks at a tremendous pace. The bad is he is striking out at a tremendous pace. He’s been more than solid in the field - easily the best 1b the Sox have had since Moreland. And he’s batting at the bottom third of the lineup.

 

There really isn’t all that much about him that is suspect; he’s shown he can hit MLB pitching. His OPS after a career is still only .672, but he’s also only 23.

 

Not every player is a star right away. Since he can field his role and isn’t a starting pitcher, he’s really not among the top issues with this team right now…

[Old Red]

Gee, in the first post I quoted, you capitalized “suspect” but not “so far.” How could anyone miss that and not see your point?

 

Casas is 13 for 75. Not good, but even a couple lucky grounders or different scorer calls, and his BA goes up almost 70 points. One good day at the plate and his BA goes up even more.

 

The good about Casas is he is taking walks at a tremendous pace. The bad is he is striking out at a tremendous pace. He’s been more than solid in the field - easily the best 1b the Sox have had since Moreland. And he’s batting at the bottom third of the lineup.

 

There really isn’t all that much about him that is suspect; he’s shown he can hit MLB pitching. His OPS after a career is still only .672, but he’s also only 23.

 

Not every player is a star right away. Since he can field his role and isn’t a starting pitcher, he’s really not among the top issues with this team right now…

 

I could care less about how many balls Casas fouls off, or how many walks he gets for that matter. He looks like he would rather take a walk then swing the bat, and has taken to many close third strike pitches. Swing the dam bat! A couple of lucky grounders, or different scorers calls? Really? I think his 130 BA looks better than the eye test SO FAR. Swing the dam bat! SO FAR he hasn’t.

[moonslav59]

So what about Dalbec - would you classify him as good, decent, or lousy? You seemed to be suggesting he qualifies as good, in spite of his replacement level stats.

 

I do not have the faith in Dalbec I once had. His career stats are front-end loaded.

 

I've not given up on him, either, but no, I do not see him as a current and viable option for the Sox at 1B, should Casas earn a demotion.

 

Since virtually no trades are made in May and early June, our best option is Turner at 1B and some sort of platoon at DH- maybe Valdez/Dalbec or Valdez/Refsnyder.

 

Some tiny sample sizes here:

 

v R

1.000 Valdez (has hit righties very well in the minors)

 

v L

1.167 Dalbec (.755 in 2022)

.808 Refsnyder (1.005 in 2022)

 

This looks way more promising than Casas, so far.

[moonslav59]

Ah well, it doesn't matter much Red. Swapping Casas for Hosmer would be the proverbial move of deck chairs on the Titanic.

 

That swap would be very suspect, too.

 

[Nick]

Bello had a good stretch last year.

 

I'm not sure if it's fair to judge his 2023 season after 2 starts with abbreviated spring training.

I have more faith in Bello than in Casas.

[moonslav59]

Gee, in the first post I quoted, you capitalized “suspect” but not “so far.” How could anyone miss that and not see your point?

 

Casas is 13 for 75. Not good, but even a couple lucky grounders or different scorer calls, and his BA goes up almost 70 points. One good day at the plate and his BA goes up even more.

 

The good about Casas is he is taking walks at a tremendous pace. The bad is he is striking out at a tremendous pace. He’s been more than solid in the field - easily the best 1b the Sox have had since Moreland. And he’s batting at the bottom third of the lineup.

 

There really isn’t all that much about him that is suspect; he’s shown he can hit MLB pitching. His OPS after a career is still only .672, but he’s also only 23.

 

Not every player is a star right away. Since he can field his role and isn’t a starting pitcher, he’s really not among the top issues with this team right now…

 

After watching the bumblings at 1B, last year, I do appreciate a 1Bman that can actually catch the ball and filed a routine grounder, too.

 

I may have been one of the first to start questioning whether Casas needs to be platooned or sent down to "work things out" (not to learn anything else,) but it is still very early in the season.

 

Here just a few recent examples of why giving up so early is a SUSPECT strategy:

 

Renfroe (had worse numbers than Casas has now, and the same guy suspecting Casas has still not stopped crying about us trading Renroe away.)

.485 on April 30th (19 games and 68 PAs)

.859 May 1st>>> (504 PAs)

 

 

Kike 2021 (remember everyone screaming about him leading off?)

.650 over first 222 PAs

.874 last 363 PAs, including a .372 OBP and then a one man show playoffs

 

Dalbec 2021:

.656 first 314 PAs

1.114 over his last 139 PAs

(Also, .558 after 108 PAs and then .867 over last 345 PAs)

 

Casas 2022:

.582 over his first 16 games (53 PAs)

1.008 over his last 11 games (42 PAs)

 

It's a good think Cora doesn't listen to me and others, here.

 

[moonslav59]

Bello had a good stretch last year.

 

I'm not sure if it's fair to judge his 2023 season after 2 starts with abbreviated spring training.

I have more faith in Bello than in Casas.

 

He struggled in his first few starts, last year, too, which is understandable for any young pitcher.

 

10.55 ERA after first 3 starts of 2022 (12 IP)

3.18 ERA over last 10 games (including 8 starts) 45.1 IP

 

We don't know if history will repeat itself, but the kid deserves a look.

 

We should also remember, he missed almost all of ST'ing and part of the April.

[Nick]

I'm sorry. But with 2 balls and no strike on Verdugo with Yoshida coming up, no brainer to walk him to set up a double play.

[notin]

Bello had a good stretch last year.

 

I'm not sure if it's fair to judge his 2023 season after 2 starts with abbreviated spring training.

I have more faith in Bello than in Casas.

 

You can be sure. It’s not fair…

[moonslav59]

It's never fair to definitively judge any player over tiny sample sizes.

 

We can argue about what "tiny" or "small sample sizes" are, but 2 starts, especially after pretty much missing ST'ing is tiny.

 

It may take Bello a while to improve his command, but he's got enough nasty stuff to be pretty good as soon as now.

 

I hate to pin so much of our hopes on this kid, but who besides Houck and Crawford have shown better hope in our rotation, so far this year?

 

I know- I know, that's not saying much, and guys like jacko will probably bust my balls for saying that about a pitcher with a 6.57 ERA, right now, but it's how my gut feels right now.

 

Maybe, I'm just hungry.

[moonslav59]

OBP Leaders

.514 Duvall

.429 Duran

.369 Turner

.367 Yoshida

.364 Dalbec

.363 Verdugo

.353 Refsnyder

.340 McGuire

.333 Tapia

.318 Kike

.313 Valdez

.300 Wong

.296 Devers

.283 Casas

.262 Arroyo

.174 Chang

 

SLG

1.030 Duvall

.659 Duran

.578 Devers

.452 Yoshida

.451 Verdugo

.438 Valdez

.400 McGuire

.398 Kike

.385 Tapia

.375 Turner

.341 Chang

.310 Ref

.296 Wong

.293 Casas

.274 Arroyo

.222 Dalbec

[moonslav59]

As bad as we have looked, we are just 1 GB a playoff slot.

 

We are 0.5 behind the Astros.

 

We are 1 GB the Yanks.

 

We are 2.5 GB the 4th best record in the AL.

 

I keep saying it, but many teams have serious issues, too- not just us.

[Hugh2]

So….as I’ve been saying for the past two weeks. Bello was about 3 starts behind every other starter and had no time to ramp up. I thought he would be fine after a few starts.

 

Perspective matters

[Hugh2]

I was one of the biggest hopefuls on Yoshida when everyone else gave up on him. The reason why was because despite the stat line you could see the advance approach. K and BB rates are some of the earliest predictors of success and stabilize after a smaller sample size than most other stats.

 

For the SAME reasons I’m sticking with Casas. The kid has an advanced approach. The stats aren’t there yet, but he passes the EYE TEST big time. Mark my words. Casas will be fine.

[Bellhorn04]

As bad as we have looked, we are just 1 GB a playoff slot.

 

We are 0.5 behind the Astros.

 

We are 1 GB the Yanks.

 

We are 2.5 GB the 4th best record in the AL.

 

I keep saying it, but many teams have serious issues, too- not just us.

 

I never thought I would become this guy who reacts to every win and loss, but that's the way I've been so far this year.

 

Any frustration I've had has not been directed toward the players or Cora, it's been towards Henry and Bloom for not doing more to bolster the team's chances.

[Old Red]

I never thought I would become this guy who reacts to every win and loss, but that's the way I've been so far this year.

 

Any frustration I've had has not been directed toward the players or Cora, it's been towards Henry and Bloom for not doing more to bolster the team's chances.

 

Seems as mentioned before that some are satisfied hanging around 500 in a Watered Down MLB, and being close to a WC spot. I look at it as floundering around 500 in a watered down league, and if that’s the ceiling that’s just not good enough for me.

[Hugh2]

Seems as mentioned before that some are satisfied hanging around 500 in a Watered Down MLB, and being close to a WC spot. I look at it as floundering around 500 in a watered down league, and if that’s the ceiling that’s just not good enough for me.

 

A. If many expectations were a losing team, would t .500 be an improvement and bright spot for the future.

Playing devils advocate here. In a big market like Boston 3/4 years in last place should be unacceptable.

 

B. Who is satisfied here?

[Old Red]

I was one of the biggest hopefuls on Yoshida when everyone else gave up on him. The reason why was because despite the stat line you could see the advance approach. K and BB rates are some of the earliest predictors of success and stabilize after a smaller sample size than most other stats.

 

For the SAME reasons I’m sticking with Casas. The kid has an advanced approach. The stats aren’t there yet, but he passes the EYE TEST big time. Mark my words. Casas will be fine.

 

Yes if you like fouling off pitches, taking a few walks, and taking to many called third strikes, because he looks like he’s afraid to swing the bat then Casas So Far has passed the eye test. He’s not going to lead anyone to the promise land from one of the top suspects/prospects of an improved in the rankings farm system that way.

[Hugh2]

Yes if you like fouling off pitches, taking a few walks, and taking to many called third strikes, because he looks like he’s afraid to swing the bat then Casas So Far has passed the eye test. He’s not going to lead anyone to the promise land from one of the top suspects/prospects of an improved in the rankings farm system that way.

 

Lol