A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[notin]

I don't remember them doing this with Blake Snell, Chris Archer, McClanahan or Glasnow and they certainly aren't doing that right now with Taj Bradley.

 

Aside from David Price, which other arms did they do that with?

 

It’s hard to tell by looking at their numbers over the years in a cursory fashion, because of their dedication to the opener strategy. But it did seem for a while that they used Ryan Yarbrough and Yonny Chirinos that way as well…

[Hugh2]

In theory, you have to REALLY HIT to be a DH. In Oakland and Pitt and KC, you just need to be willing to work cheap…

 

And, there’s even a slimmer margin of roster fit when you don’t have a defensive home and have heavy platoon splits with the bat.

 

To be fair. I have not looked at Emanuels platoon splits this year

[Bellhorn04]

It was meant to be a 24/7/365 point being made. This time of year, hardly anyone is "available." We named some that could have been signed over the winter. We can go back and look at past winters and summer trade deadline deals. 1B has to be the easiest position to fill. "Dimes" are now millions, but some can be acquired for way less than other positions.

 

The Padres paid us to take Hosmer, last summer.

 

But Hosmer was no longer a good hitter. That's kind of what I'm getting at. All these guys being named have reasons for being available cheap...

[moonslav59]

But Hosmer was no longer a good hitter. That's kind of what I'm getting at. All these guys being named have reasons for being available cheap...

 

Moreland and Pearce were cheap. Travis Shaw in 2021. I think we paid Millar $2M back in '03. That may be 2 or 3 dimes a dozen, but he was not expensive.

 

That is just Sox examples.

 

I can easily find a dozen more.

[Bellhorn04]

Moreland and Pearce were cheap. Travis Shaw in 2021. I think we paid Millar $2M back in '03. That may be 2 or 3 dimes a dozen, but he was not expensive.

 

That is just Sox examples.

 

I can easily find a dozen more.

 

Moreland made $6.5 million for 2018 and $6.5 million for 2019.

 

Pearce made $6.25 million for the same years. The trade for him in 2018 worked out beautifully, the re-signing not so much.

 

I guess it all depends on what you call good and what you call cheap. Seems to me you're being a little loose with the words.

 

It's just something to jabber about, of course.

[Bellhorn04]

As for Millar, in 2005 the Red Sox paid him $3.5 million.

 

For comparison, they paid Ortiz $5.25 million in 2005 - only 50% more than Millar.

[moonslav59]

Moreland made $6.5 million for 2018 and $6.5 million for 2019.

 

Pearce made $6.25 million for the same years. The trade for him in 2018 worked out beautifully, the re-signing not so much.

 

I guess it all depends on what you call good and what you call cheap. Seems to me you're being a little loose with the words.

 

It's just something to jabber about, of course.

 

OK. We both know "a dime a dozen" can't mean a dime, when min wage is over $500K.

 

We traded for Pearce, which is what this is about. He was not making close to $6M, when we added him. Shaw was dirt cheap. That's two. Count Millar as 3 and that's 3 in 2 decades. 3 per team x 30 teams is more than a dozen.

 

Are you really arguing it's not easy to find inexpensive 1Bman with histories of being decent to good hitters in the off season and at the deadline?

 

How about when compared to other positions?

[moonslav59]

As for Millar, in 2005 the Red Sox paid him $3.5 million.

 

For comparison, they paid Ortiz $5.25 million in 2005 - only 50% more than Millar.

 

What did we have to pay to acquire Millar?

 

Isn't that what we are talking about? (Not to keep a successful player.)

[Bellhorn04]

OK. We both know "a dime a dozen" can't mean a dime, when min wage is over $500K.

 

We traded for Pearce, which is what this is about. He was not making close to $6M, when we added him. Shaw was dirt cheap. That's two. Count Millar as 3 and that's 3 in 2 decades. 3 per team x 30 teams is more than a dozen.

 

Are you really arguing it's not easy to find inexpensive 1Bman with histories of being decent to good hitters in the off season and at the deadline?

 

How about when compared to other positions?

 

I think the old adage "you get what you pay for" applies as much to first basemen as to any other position.

 

mvp used the example of Aguilar. Yes, he was cheap at $3 million. But he also had an fWAR of -0.4 in 2022. So...you get what you pay for.

[Bellhorn04]

What did we have to pay to acquire Millar?

 

Isn't that what we are talking about? (Not to keep a successful player.)

 

I assumed you were talking about free agents as well.

[moonslav59]

I assumed you were talking about free agents as well.

 

Yes, but only examples of cheap ones. Millar was cheap when we added him, first.

 

Shaw was cheap at the deadline in '21, and in the offseason before 2022, but he sucked in '22. (He did have a record of being a good hitter, though.)

 

Hardly anybody heard of Espinal, when we traded him for Pearce, and Toronto paid almost his whole remaining salary.

 

Finding 1Bman with good hitting records and adding them to your roster can be very inexpensive. Do you disagree?

 

Can we say, at today's dollars, $2-3M/ yr is "cheap?" Maybe a few years back $1.5-2.5M?

[moonslav59]

I think the old adage "you get what you pay for" applies as much to first basemen as to any other position.

 

mvp used the example of Aguilar. Yes, he was cheap at $3 million. But he also had an fWAR of -0.4 in 2022. So...you get what you pay for.

 

What the player does afterwards can be one criteria, but then think about the 2021 Travis Shaw, the 2018 Steve Pearce, the 2003 and 2004 Kevin Millar.

[moonslav59]

ALE Teams vs the rest of MLB (vs all non ALE teams)

 

16-3 TBR

13-3 BAL

12-7 TOR

10-6 BOS

12-8 NYY

 

 

ALE vs .500> Teams

6-4 TBR (10 gms)

7-5 TOR (12 games)

11-9 NYY (20 games)

6-6 BAL (12 games)

10-13 BOS (23 games)

 

[Bellhorn04]

Finding 1Bman with good hitting records and adding them to your roster can be very inexpensive. Do you disagree?

 

I'll agree that it's possible. But I don't think it's quite as easy as you're making it sound. There are significant amounts of luck and risk involved, because we're usually talking about an older guy, and they can become washed up in a hurry, like Millar, Moreland, Pearce, Shaw, whoever.

[Bellhorn04]

I guess what we're really talking about is, if Casas continues to struggle, do we look for a replacement. Dalbec is not a promising solution.

[moonslav59]

I guess what we're really talking about is, if Casas continues to struggle, do we look for a replacement. Dalbec is not a promising solution.

 

1Bmen are not "a dime a dozen" in April-May. There are none, at any cost.

 

Hopefully, by the deadline, we won't need a 1Bman, but if we do, we should be able to add a decent hitting 1B at minimal cost. Whether he works out or not is up for grabs. Pearce did in '18, Shaw did in '21, but Hosmer did not in '22. My point was, and still is, when you compare the comp package need to acquire a 1Bman vs just about every other position, it is way cheaper. "Pennies on the dollar."

[Bellhorn04]

1Bmen are not "a dime a dozen" in April-May. There are none, at any cost.

 

Hopefully, by the deadline, we won't need a 1Bman, but if we do, we should be able to add a decent hitting 1B at minimal cost. Whether he works out or not is up for grabs. Pearce did in '18, Shaw did in '21, but Hosmer did not in '22. My point was, and still is, when you compare the comp package need to acquire a 1Bman vs just about every other position, it is way cheaper. "Pennies on the dollar."

 

But why would that be? I don't believe there is a big surplus of good ones. I remember what the Yankees went through before they traded for Rizzo.

[moonslav59]

But why would that be? I don't believe there is a big surplus of good ones. I remember what the Yankees went through before they traded for Rizzo.

 

I'm not sure why, and I'm assuming you disagree that finding and acquiring a decent 1Bman is easier than a SP, SS, CF'er, C, 2Bman...

 

Maybe because a lot of aging players end up at 1B?

 

Toronto paid us to take Pearce. Yes, they got Espinal, who has worked out okay.

 

Millar, as I believe was about to go play in Japan, when we talked him into signing with us for chump change.

 

I'm not big on names of players from other teams, but I seem to remember that guy Chio was traded for for not much, as was Carlos Santana, last year. Maybe you can find guys like them at every position, and I am wrong, but they seem easier to come by, to me.

 

Try getting a decent SP, closer, SS....

 

Edited April 28, 2023 by moonslav59

[notin]

I guess what we're really talking about is, if Casas continues to struggle, do we look for a replacement. Dalbec is not a promising solution.

 

Turner to 1b.

 

Valdez/Dalbec platoon at DH…

[moonslav59]

Turner to 1b.

 

Valdez/Dalbec platoon at DH…

 

DH platoon players are a nickel a dozen!

 

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure why, and I'm assuming you disagree that finding and acquiring a decent 1Bman is easier than a SP, SS, CF'er, C, 2Bman...

 

Maybe because a lot of aging players end up at 1B?

 

Toronto paid us to take Pearce. Yes, they got Espinal, who has worked out okay.

 

Millar, as I believe was about to go play in Japan, when we talked him into signing with us for chump change.

 

I'm not big on names of players from other teams, but I seem to remember that guy Chio was traded for for not much, as was Carlos Santana, last year. Maybe you can find guys like them at every position, and I am wrong, but they seem easier to come by, to me.

 

Try getting a decent SP, closer, SS....

 

 

I think I was probably misinterpreting you from the get-go and thinking you meant all the time.

 

Communicating clearly on the internet can be a challenge.

[notin]

DH platoon players are a nickel a dozen!

 

 

Exactly. And we have two already…

[notin]

I'm not sure why, and I'm assuming you disagree that finding and acquiring a decent 1Bman is easier than a SP, SS, CF'er, C, 2Bman...

 

Maybe because a lot of aging players end up at 1B?

 

Toronto paid us to take Pearce. Yes, they got Espinal, who has worked out okay.

 

Millar, as I believe was about to go play in Japan, when we talked him into signing with us for chump change.

 

I'm not big on names of players from other teams, but I seem to remember that guy Chio was traded for for not much, as was Carlos Santana, last year. Maybe you can find guys like them at every position, and I am wrong, but they seem easier to come by, to me.

 

Try getting a decent SP, closer, SS....

 

 

 

Why a closer? Don’t like Kenley?

[Bellhorn04]

Why a closer? Don’t like Kenley?

 

He meant "Try and see how much it costs you."

[moonslav59]

I think I was probably misinterpreting you from the get-go and thinking you meant all the time.

 

Communicating clearly on the internet can be a challenge.

 

It's very hard to acquire any player from April to early June and after the deadline is against the rules, if it's a good player.

 

I thought that was a given, except for the one poster who kept saying, over and over, that Bloom should have acquired a 1Bman, last May.

 

Maybe saying a dime a dozen is hyperbole, but to me, it's easier to find a decent 1Bman than just about any other position. The one you get may not work out, but that happens with many acquisitions.

 

 

 

[a700hitter]

Whitlock had looked very impressive in his start against the Angels. It seems that durability will be an issue that will dog him. Very disappointing. What is neuritis?

[Larry Cook]

Whitlock had looked very impressive in his start against the Angels. It seems that durability will be an issue that will dog him. Very disappointing. What is neuritis?

 

It is a medical term that means “I should be in the bullpen”!!!!!!

[Bellhorn04]

It's very hard to acquire any player from April to early June and after the deadline is against the rules, if it's a good player.

 

I thought that was a given, except for the one poster who kept saying, over and over, that Bloom should have acquired a 1Bman, last May.

 

Maybe saying a dime a dozen is hyperbole, but to me, it's easier to find a decent 1Bman than just about any other position. The one you get may not work out, but that happens with many acquisitions.

 

 

So what about Dalbec - would you classify him as good, decent, or lousy? You seemed to be suggesting he qualifies as good, in spite of his replacement level stats.

[Hugh2]

Whitlock had looked very impressive in his start against the Angels. It seems that durability will be an issue that will dog him. Very disappointing. What is neuritis?

 

Inflammation of the ulnar nerve, on the inside of the elbow.

 

If it’s serious, he will need surgery, and we can expect him back sometime late next year. If it’s not serious, he may miss two starts. Jordan Romano had this I. 2021 and only missed ten days.

 

Reality is, we have no ideal if this is serious or not right now. Sox sound like it’s not, but I don’t blame anyone for being skeptical at this point. I am.

[Hugh2]

So what about Dalbec - would you classify him as good, decent, or lousy? You seemed to be suggesting he qualifies as good, in spite of his replacement level stats.

 

I would classify Dalbec as a change of scenery guy at this point. Not unrealistic to think he can become a good second division starter for a small market team where the pressure is lower. I’d say it’s more probable than not he’s not a regular big leaguer at this point. But he has value…some value