A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

If Kluber just pitched like 2022 Kluber, this season would look much better. Him losing 2 mph in velo and getting pounded has had a bigger impact on the staff than just his starts. It puts additional stress on the bullpen. He was signed to be a leader, but needs to spend time working on himself instead.

 

It's hard to know, if he can adjust or get that velo back.

 

He has lasted 4.8 IP per start, which is not too far from the league avg of 5.2, but I agree with your point.

[moonslav59]

My point has always been to start with starters, and then build around them. Not wait until the position players are deemed finally good enough to get serious about a rotation.

 

Agreed.

 

I'm okay with varying the order, but at some point, you need to build the rotation from the top- not the middle and bottom. I'm okay with cycling to rings, but we are overdue.

 

The last major expenditure on the rotation was just an extension (Sale) not an addition.

 

That is way too many years to neglect the most important area of a team.

[mvp 78]

Not hearing much from the Yoshida doubters, anymore. (Stay tuned, though.)

 

Since 4/20 (10 games with new approach)

410 AVG

455 OBP

718 SLG

216 wRC+

3 HR

7 R

10 RBI

9% BB

14% K

 

For the season:

Top 3% k rate

[mvp 78]

It's hard to know, if he can adjust or get that velo back.

 

He has lasted 4.8 IP per start, which is not too far from the league avg of 5.2, but I agree with your point.

 

You don't want the Opening Day starter to league average or less than. He's only had 1 start go longer than 5.0 innings.

[mvp 78]

Agreed.

 

I'm okay with varying the order, but at some point, you need to build the rotation from the top- not the middle and bottom. I'm okay with cycling to rings, but we are overdue.

 

The last major expenditure on the rotation was just an extension (Sale) not an addition.

 

That is way too many years to neglect the most important area of a team.

 

Yes, you need the guy at the top. If Sale was SALE, we'd be having a different conversation probably. It's why they overpaid for Price. It's why they unloaded in the trade for Sale. I don't believe you can wait for that guy to show up via FA.

[moonslav59]

You don't want the Opening Day starter to league average or less than. He's only had 1 start go longer than 5.0 innings.

 

I don't disagree.

 

He should not be our #1 or #2.

 

As bad as he's pitched, 4.8 IP/GS seemed high, to me.

[moonslav59]

Yes, you need the guy at the top. If Sale was SALE, we'd be having a different conversation probably. It's why they overpaid for Price. It's why they unloaded in the trade for Sale. I don't believe you can wait for that guy to show up via FA.

 

We do better with blockbusters for aces (Pedro, Schilling, Beckett and Sale) than FAs (Lackey, Price.)

[mvp 78]

We do better with blockbusters for aces (Pedro, Schilling, Beckett and Sale) than FAs (Lackey, Price.)

 

I think most everyone does. By the time aces become FA's, they are older and you have to compete with a lot more teams that increase the contract amount. Better to trade and try to get a below market deal.

 

develop - Sandy Alcantara: 5/56M!

trade - Pablo Lopez: 4/73.5M?

sign - Gerrit Cole: 9/324M

 

I see a stark difference there.

[mvp 78]

I don't disagree.

 

He should not be our #1 or #2.

 

As bad as he's pitched, 4.8 IP/GS seemed high, to me.

 

A 1/10M guy is a middle of the rotation guy. Sale coming off his injuries is a 2 AT BEST! This rotation is stacked with 2023 middle rotation ceiling guys. In 2024, maybe Whitlock and Bello are better than that, but not this year.

[moonslav59]

I think most everyone does. By the time aces become FA's, they are older and you have to compete with a lot more teams that increase the contract amount. Better to trade and try to get a below market deal.

 

develop - Sandy Alcantara: 5/56M!

trade - Pablo Lopez: 4/73.5M?

sign - Gerrit Cole: 9/324M

 

I see a stark difference there.

 

What makes me really think back to Castillo is his extension at $108M/5. Compare that to Cole.

 

Ding, ding, DING!

[moonslav59]

A 1/10M guy is a middle of the rotation guy. Sale coming off his injuries is a 2 AT BEST! This rotation is stacked with 2023 middle rotation ceiling guys. In 2024, maybe Whitlock and Bello are better than that, but not this year.

 

Their hope was that we might have 4 solid #3's and a solid #5 (Pivetta), but that is not a winning strategy, even with great hitting and a good pen.

 

I think they saw Whitlock as a #2 ceiling guy for 2023 and maybe Sale as a longer shot at reaching #2.

 

Yes, Kluber, Bello and Pivetta as #3 ceilings. Paxton as a who-knows-what?

 

It's not a winning plan. It's a punt. 4-5 years of punting is frustrating.

[Bellhorn04]

I think most everyone does. By the time aces become FA's, they are older and you have to compete with a lot more teams that increase the contract amount. Better to trade and try to get a below market deal.

 

develop - Sandy Alcantara: 5/56M!

trade - Pablo Lopez: 4/73.5M?

sign - Gerrit Cole: 9/324M

 

I see a stark difference there.

 

Gausman would have been a great signing. Easy to say from the armchair, of course.

[mvp 78]

Their hope was that we might have 4 solid #3's and a solid #5 (Pivetta), but that is not a winning strategy, even with great hitting and a good pen.

 

I think they saw Whitlock as a #2 ceiling guy for 2023 and maybe Sale as a longer shot at reaching #2.

 

Yes, Kluber, Bello and Pivetta as #3 ceilings. Paxton as a who-knows-what?

 

It's not a winning plan. It's a punt. 4-5 years of punting is frustrating.

 

2021 was the worst thing that happened to Chaim's tenure here. He believed he could get success with doing as little as possible. Everything was gonna be awesome.

[mvp 78]

Gausman would have been a great signing. Easy to say from the armchair, of course.

 

Yeah, I thought it was a good signing, but didn't think it'd work out as well as it had. If Bassitt and Manoah can turn it around, that team will be really tough to beat.

[moonslav59]

2021 was the worst thing that happened to Chaim's tenure here. He believed he could get success with doing as little as possible. Everything was gonna be awesome.

 

I think it affected Henry's spending ideas more than Chaim's choices.

 

I'm not even sure the plan was to sign Story. I have no evidence to support the notion, and I'm not sure it's true, but I do wonder, if Henry just reacted to the swelling rumbles from Sox Nation and thought he'd throw a bone our way.

 

I'm still baffled why they did not re-set in 2022 and go big in 2023, but this punting thing seems to have taken hold of the organization, and I don't think it's Chaim's idea or plan.

 

I do think Chaim is fully on board with hoarding prospects and not pulling off a Castillo-type trade. I think the outlandish salaries given out this past winter were just too much for Henry and Chaim to match, so they did what they felt was "enough" to keep us relevant (many here disagree, of course) and punted on the rotation, once again.

 

[Nick]

A 1/10M guy is a middle of the rotation guy. Sale coming off his injuries is a 2 AT BEST! This rotation is stacked with 2023 middle rotation ceiling guys. In 2024, maybe Whitlock and Bello are better than that, but not this year.

 

 

Exactly correct.

 

Bloom should have looked to add a rotation starter at the top.

 

This is why I'm not convinced we were all in for 2023. Unless of course Sale has more left in his tank and his good games so far are the floor.

Edited May 1, 2023 by Nick

[Nick]

Our 3 outfield positions, LF, CF and RF are ranked 3rd, 1st and 2nd amongst AL East teams. (OPS)

 

To show dominance of the Rays, they are ranked 1st position wise (OPS) at 1B, SS, DH, 2nd at 2B, LF and RF. That's 6 out of 9 positions 1st or 2nd in the entire American League. Unreal.

[Old Red]

2021 was the worst thing that happened to Chaim's tenure here. He believed he could get success with doing as little as possible. Everything was gonna be awesome.

 

That’s why the Wall Mart greater Sam Kennedy said in the 2021 offseason the Red Sox were going to follow the same plan for 2022, but I do agree after all the feedback JH heard from the fans that he gave the go ahead for a signing, and Story Land was bought.

[mvp 78]

That’s why the Wall Mart greater Sam Kennedy said in the 2021 offseason the Red Sox were going to follow the same plan for 2022, but I do agree after all the feedback JH heard from the fans that he gave the go ahead for a signing, and Story Land was bought.

 

The same plan should have been: re-sign Schwarber, keep Renfroe, replace the starting pitchers that left and add to the pen. They went over the cap and it was the last hurrah for the "2018" group. Might as well run it back one more time?

[Bellhorn04]

2021 was the worst thing that happened to Chaim's tenure here. He believed he could get success with doing as little as possible. Everything was gonna be awesome.

 

Man, we really like to make these guys out as stooges sometimes.

[mvp 78]

Our 3 outfield positions, LF, CF and RF are ranked 3rd, 1st and 2nd amongst AL East teams. (OPS)

 

To show dominance of the Rays, they are ranked 1st position wise (OPS) at 1B, SS, DH, 2nd at 2B, LF and RF. That's 6 out of 9 positions 1st or 2nd in the entire American League. Unreal.

 

They have 8 players on pace for 30+ HR's.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A trade for a top pitcher has to hurt. Seattle had a disappointing first month, but their rotation is set for years. They also have budding stars in the outfield and behind the plate.

 

Want to target one of their young starters under control? For instance, second base and DH have been below replacement player spots so far for the Ms. Wonder what the Red Sox can get for, say, Nick Yorke? According to BTV, Yorke is worth +9.8.

 

Now let's look at some of Seattle's desirable under-30 starting pitchers: Castillo (even with his big contract) +58, Logan Gilbert +72.7, George Freaking Kirby +99.7!

 

Ulp.

[moonslav59]

The same plan should have been: re-sign Schwarber, keep Renfroe, replace the starting pitchers that left and add to the pen. They went over the cap and it was the last hurrah for the "2018" group. Might as well run it back one more time?

 

Perhaps the most puzzling "no spend" winter was the 2018-2019 one. They lost HRam, Kimbrell, Pomeranz and Kelly and added just about nobody. (They kept Nate & Pearce with the money lost.)

 

That was a better "last hurrah" moment.

[moonslav59]

A trade for a top pitcher has to hurt. Seattle had a disappointing first month, but their rotation is set for years. They also have budding stars in the outfield and behind the plate.

 

Want to target one of their young starters under control? For instance, second base and DH have been below replacement player spots so far for the Ms. Wonder what the Red Sox can get for, say, Nick Yorke? According to BTV, Yorke is worth +9.8.

 

Now let's look at some of Seattle's desirable under-30 starting pitchers: Castillo (even with his big contract) +58, Logan Gilbert +72.7, George Freaking Kirby +99.7!

 

Ulp.

 

Yup.

 

I think $108M/5 is a great bargain for SEA.

[mvp 78]

Man, we really like to make these guys out as stooges sometimes.

 

Not hard to do. Just sit back and watch.

[mvp 78]

Yup.

 

I think $108M/5 is a great bargain for SEA.

 

And yet they are 12-16 with the #1 fWAR pitching staff?

[mvp 78]

Perhaps the most puzzling "no spend" winter was the 2018-2019 one. They lost HRam, Kimbrell, Pomeranz and Kelly and added just about nobody. (They kept Nate & Pearce with the money lost.)

 

That was a better "last hurrah" moment.

 

Needed to re-sign Mookie.......................

[Bellhorn04]

Perhaps the most puzzling "no spend" winter was the 2018-2019 one. They lost HRam, Kimbrell, Pomeranz and Kelly and added just about nobody. (They kept Nate & Pearce with the money lost.)

 

That was a better "last hurrah" moment.

 

They did also sign those extensions with Sale and Bogey.

 

You could tell JH was putting on the clampers a bit because of the tax situation, since DD didn't replace Kimbrel or Kelly.

[Old Red]

The same plan should have been: re-sign Schwarber, keep Renfroe, replace the starting pitchers that left and add to the pen. They went over the cap and it was the last hurrah for the "2018" group. Might as well run it back one more time?

 

I was wrong in not resigning Schwarber, because I thought they could get one more decent year out of JD, but I agree that this should have been the way to go.

[Bellhorn04]

Not hard to do. Just sit back and watch.

 

And interpret as we see fit.