A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Nick]

He meant the Vazquez trade was a good trade.

Thanks....you understand me.

[Nick]

Ok let me clarify what I meant to say.

 

In light of Wong development as a catcher, trading Vaz to Houston and receiving Valdez now looks good.

 

Especially since Vaz got a $30M deal with the Twins. With Wong, we got younger, more athletic and 6 years of team control.

Bellhorn got it.

[Hugh2]

Ok let me clarify what I meant to say.

 

In light of Wong development as a catcher, trading Vaz to Houston and receiving Valdez now looks good.

 

Especially since Vaz got a $30M deal with the Twins. With Wong, we got younger, more athletic and 6 years of team control.

Bellhorn got it.

 

Ok, I disagree, however I understand your point now and what you meant. I think it's a good look for the organization overall, but I can't evaluate one trade based entirely on another one. To me, you're evaluating Vasquez vs. Valdez/Abreau and that's it....It might be a good thing, better for the organization, and a good look that Wong/McGuire look great filling that hole but that doesn't change the trajectory of Valdez/Abreu

[Hugh2]

Would we have liked the Mookie Betts trade better if Franchy Cordero turned into a stud?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Would we have liked the Mookie Betts trade better if Franchy Cordero turned into a stud?

 

I'd rather the returns turned into stud pitchers... but Bloom did the best he could by attaching a Hall of Famer to ensure the Sox got rid of Price.

[notin]

Ok, I disagree, however I understand your point now and what you meant. I think it's a good look for the organization overall, but I can't evaluate one trade based entirely on another one. To me, you're evaluating Vasquez vs. Valdez/Abreau and that's it....It might be a good thing, better for the organization, and a good look that Wong/McGuire look great filling that hole but that doesn't change the trajectory of Valdez/Abreu

 

I am ok with using one trade to justify another one…

[notin]

Would we have liked the Mookie Betts trade better if Franchy Cordero turned into a stud?

 

It would probably sting a lot less…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Hey -- MLB.com's new power rankings are out. The Red Sox, who just climbed to a fourth place tie with a winning record in the AL East, are ranked 20th.

 

New York, which only lost yesterday by 13 runs and are now tied for last place, is ranked 12th... because, after all, they're the Yankees!

[Hugh2]

It would probably sting a lot less…

 

And Verdugo/Wong doesn't make it so?

 

If a completely different trade. I just don't think it's a good ideal of getting in the habit of weighing two completely different trades against each other in terms of evaluating them. It just opens up pandora's box, and makes evaluating things convoluted. And it's just not accurate, they were two different trades at two different times.

[Bellhorn04]

Hey -- MLB.com's new power rankings are out. The Red Sox, who just climbed to a fourth place tie with a winning record in the AL East, are ranked 20th.

 

New York, which only lost yesterday by 13 runs and are now tied for last place, is ranked 12th... because, after all, they're the Yankees!

 

Power rankings are probably the most worthless metric ever, which is saying something.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And Verdugo/Wong doesn't make it so?

 

If a completely different trade. I just don't think it's a good ideal of getting in the habit of weighing two completely different trades against each other in terms of evaluating them. It just opens up pandora's box, and makes evaluating things convoluted. And it's just not accurate, they were two different trades at two different times.

 

I see your point, though some deals - depending on how they work out - open up new holes that have to be filled with other deals. One can even be contingent upon the other: if we trade Manny for ARod to play short, then we can swap Nomar for Magglio Ordonez to play left...

[mvp 78]

Hey -- MLB.com's new power rankings are out. The Red Sox, who just climbed to a fourth place tie with a winning record in the AL East, are ranked 20th.

 

New York, which only lost yesterday by 13 runs and are now tied for last place, is ranked 12th... because, after all, they're the Yankees!

 

All things being equal, I have more faith in that Yankees rotation over the long haul than the Sox rotation.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Power rankings are probably the most worthless metric ever, which is saying something.

 

... especially on a New York Yankee-Aaron Judge-loving website posing as an impartial platform purportedly highlighting heroics of all other 29 teams equally.

[moonslav59]

May Day- MAY DAY!

 

How about our catching tandem batting .278? Their combined OPS is .715. Last year, it was .694, and Vaz was known most for his bat.

 

The biggest upward wing on the 2023 team from 2022 is the OF:

.676 in 2022

.890 in 2023, so far!

(.798 in LF, 1.049 in CF and .831 in RF)

 

Biggest drops:

2B: .724> .541 (Arroyo is heating up.)

SS: .815> .704 (expected some drop, here)

1B: .683> .612 (didn't think we could get much worse, but at least the 1B defense is improved.)

 

Similar

DH: .763> .756 (Turner is a 2nd half whizzard)

3B: .856> .831 (Devers has slugged his way to an impressive OPS.)

[mvp 78]

I see your point, though some deals - depending on how they work out - open up new holes that have to be filled with other deals. One can even be contingent upon the other: if we trade Manny for ARod to play short, then we can swap Nomar for Magglio Ordonez to play left...

 

Nomar and Magglio both cursed each other to be horrible after 2003 (except for Magglio's one great year in 2007).

[moonslav59]

All things being equal, I have more faith in that Yankees rotation over the long haul than the Sox rotation.

 

I've always felt having the strongest rotation was the biggest key to sustained success. We've neglected it for far too long.

 

I still have hope we can recover to get into the mid tier- maybe even upper mid tier the rest of the way. That might be enough to carry us a ways.

[Nick]

I guess things even out. Casas disappoinment is overshadowed by Duran's hot bat and improved defense.

[mvp 78]

I've always felt having the strongest rotation was the biggest key to sustained success. We've neglected it for far too long.

 

I still have hope we can recover to get into the mid tier- maybe even upper mid tier the rest of the way. That might be enough to carry us a ways.

 

With uncertainty surrounding Whitlock and health concerns of Sale, Paxton and Kluber, it's just not a comforting ride right now. It's like when Herbie the Love Bug splits in half and you're trying to win a race.

[Nick]

We still don't have any idea how Sale will perform this year.

 

I'm not sure if we can overcome bad season out of Sale.

[mvp 78]

I guess things even out. Casas disappoinment is overshadowed by Duran's hot bat and improved defense.

 

That's the rollercoaster to be expected with young players.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I've always felt having the strongest rotation was the biggest key to sustained success. We've neglected it for far too long.

 

I still have hope we can recover to get into the mid tier- maybe even upper mid tier the rest of the way. That might be enough to carry us a ways.

 

Imagine how vastly different the outlook would be if ownership looked at the competition and suddenly decided to go for it -- and actually forced Bloom to acquire a top starter by trading some prospects? Right now, Cole is the only sure thing separating NY and Boston (not a peep out of Crankee fans about the IL, which have been initials for the Sox roster lately).

 

In reality, we all know that pitching addition management is waiting on is postage paid and named Paxton, who finally proved he can get minor leaguers out!

[moonslav59]

With uncertainty surrounding Whitlock and health concerns of Sale, Paxton and Kluber, it's just not a comforting ride right now. It's like when Herbie the Love Bug splits in half and you're trying to win a race.

 

Yes, too many of the hopes and promises several starters had at the start of the season (some rather remote to begin with) have not grown in April.

 

Whitlock's injury scares the bejesus out of me. I'm not sure the rest of the staff can make up for a pro-longed loss.

Kluber's hopes are still there, but not like I felt in March.

I feel better about Sale than I have in years, but that may not be saying much.

Pivetta is Pivetta. Houck could improve.

Bello might be the wild card. Crawford might be a successful fall-back plan.

Paxton is a total question mark.

Mata, Walter and Murphy look like they are not ready to step in.

[Hugh2]

I see your point, though some deals - depending on how they work out - open up new holes that have to be filled with other deals. One can even be contingent upon the other: if we trade Manny for ARod to play short, then we can swap Nomar for Magglio Ordonez to play left...

 

Again, I understand the point people are trying to make here. And I think that when you dive that deep you're evaluating the organization, the GM, or the president (whatever title for whoever handles the role). But it still doesn't change the value of said return. If you trade player X for player Y, and it opens up a hole to trade for player B. it doesn't make player Y any better. Maybe the totality of the moves equals a better roster and the organization can be judged by that, but it does NOT change the value of said trade.

 

Maybe I'm stretching this next point a little bit here, but it almost feels like a cop out to not say "hey maybe the return in the Betts trade wasn't that bad" Because thats one of the guys we got for Mookie, and no one is saying that trade looks a little better now.

[moonslav59]

Imagine how vastly different the outlook would be if ownership looked at the competition and suddenly decided to go for it -- and actually forced Bloom to acquire a top starter by trading some prospects? Right now, Cole is the only sure thing separating NY and Boston (not a peep out of Crankee fans about the IL, which have been initials for the Sox roster lately).

 

In reality, we all know that pitching addition management is waiting on is postage paid and named Paxton, who finally proved he can get minor leaguers out!

 

I think of this often. We'd have had to give up Mayer and maybe Rafaela to get Castillo, but that might have been enough to get us into the top mix. We might have not spent on Kluber, so we could afford his extension, which kicks in after this year.

 

We keep looking ahead and planning for a date that always seems to be a year or more away.

 

As The Smiths put it so well... "How Soon Is Now?"

[Hugh2]

That's the rollercoaster to be expected with young players.

 

They don't cast such a large shadow when the guys you sign perform e.g. Story, Duval, Yoshida, Sale, Paxton, Kluber, etc etc.

[moonslav59]

Again, I understand the point people are trying to make here. And I think that when you dive that deep you're evaluating the organization, the GM, or the president (whatever title for whoever handles the role). But it still doesn't change the value of said return. If you trade player X for player Y, and it opens up a hole to trade for player B. it doesn't make player Y any better. Maybe the totality of the moves equals a better roster and the organization can be judged by that, but it does NOT change the value of said trade.

 

Maybe I'm stretching this next point a little bit here, but it almost feels like a cop out to not say "hey maybe the return in the Betts trade wasn't that bad" Because thats one of the guys we got for Mookie, and no one is saying that trade looks a little better now.

 

I agree, each trade should be judged on its own merits, but it is not uncommon to think, at the time of the trade, that we gave up a lot, but from an area of strength, so it hurts less. Now, on the Betts trade, after losing him, we did not have "strength in the OF," but Verdugo was meant to lessen the blow of losing Mookie, and his 5 years of control vs 1 was the key. Adding budget space is often a big help, but since it took us 3 years to replace Mookie and half-Price's salaries, I'm not sure it helped all that much.

 

On the Vaz trade, he was going to be a FA, and we knew we were not re-signing him, due in part to having Wong in the wings and the McGuire addition in the works, at the time.

 

I have no problem with people seeing the trade as a three team deal:

 

Vaz to HOU

Diekman to CWS

McGuire, Valdez, Abreu and the Hosmer rental to BOS

 

(I do think we make the Vaz trade, even if we didn't add McGuire.)

[mvp 78]

They don't cast such a large shadow when the guys you sign perform e.g. Story, Duval, Yoshida, Sale, Paxton, Kluber, etc etc.

 

If Kluber just pitched like 2022 Kluber, this season would look much better. Him losing 2 mph in velo and getting pounded has had a bigger impact on the staff than just his starts. It puts additional stress on the bullpen. He was signed to be a leader, but needs to spend time working on himself instead.

[moonslav59]

Not hearing much from the Yoshida doubters, anymore. (Stay tuned, though.)

 

Sox OPS+ Leaders

308 Duval

184 Duran

131 Verdugo

126 Yoshida

124 Devers

102 McGuire

102 Valdez

 

99 Turner

96 Tapia

94 Kike (on the rise)

 

84 Wong (on the rise)

 

73 Refsnyder

64 Arroyo (on the rise)

59 Casas

 

[mvp 78]

Yes, too many of the hopes and promises several starters had at the start of the season (some rather remote to begin with) have not grown in April.

 

Whitlock's injury scares the bejesus out of me. I'm not sure the rest of the staff can make up for a pro-longed loss.

Kluber's hopes are still there, but not like I felt in March.

I feel better about Sale than I have in years, but that may not be saying much.

Pivetta is Pivetta. Houck could improve.

Bello might be the wild card. Crawford might be a successful fall-back plan.

Paxton is a total question mark.

Mata, Walter and Murphy look like they are not ready to step in.

 

Walter is closer to filling in than Mata or Murphy even though he doesn't show it. I think the Sox have confidence that he could come up and fill in if needed.

 

I don't think Murphy will ever be a consistent MLB starter.

 

Mata pitched will last time out, but he's really not consistent from start to start and inning to inning right now. I don't think the Sox could bring him up unless he can be very good for a few months straight.

 

More likely, they just put Crawford out there and hope his recent success continues.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think of this often. We'd have had to give up Mayer and maybe Rafaela to get Castillo, but that might have been enough to get us into the top mix. We might have not spent on Kluber, so we could afford his extension, which kicks in after this year.

 

We keep looking ahead and planning for a date that always seems to be a year or more away.

 

As The Smiths put it so well... "How Soon Is Now?"

 

My point has always been to start with starters, and then build around them. Not wait until the position players are deemed finally good enough to get serious about a rotation.