A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Old Red]

A. If many expectations were a losing team, would t .500 be an improvement and bright spot for the future.

Playing devils advocate here. In a big market like Boston 3/4 years in last place should be unacceptable.

 

B. Who is satisfied here?

 

Playing 500 is an improvement, but to me not good enough. Have the Red Sox sunk that low that 500 is good enough now?

[Hugh2]

Playing 500 is an improvement, but to me not good enough. Have the Red Sox sunk that low that 500 is good enough now?

 

I think you have said before you don’t like people putting words in your mouth. Who is saying .500 is good enough? And I’ll revert back to B. Who is satisfied with this team?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What have we learned after the first month? The AL bEast is a monstrosity, with three best teams in the league plus a big Bronx cheer for the World Series favorites...

 

... and coming up last -- but neither slow nor fast -- are your extra ordinary Sox, riding the spin cycle in the incongruous throes of instability.

 

If they spelled it Socks, this would be the year you can only find one when folding the laundry (the other foot will drop out of a linen closet later, after hiding in a fitted sheet).

 

With key pinstripes catching up to Boston on the IL, the New Yorkers are only one good starting pitcher better than the cellar dwellars. Imagine the stark changes in the outlook here if Bloom and Co. could acquire just one, reliable, consistent, healthy top-of-the-rotation starter? Just one...

[notin]

Playing 500 is an improvement, but to me not good enough. Have the Red Sox sunk that low that 500 is good enough now?

 

There are 134 games left.

 

The Red Sox have actually played a surprisingly tough schedule so far. They’ve played first and second place teams almost exclusively, with only Anaheim and Detroit don’t fit the bill.

 

I don’t expect Pitt and Minnesota to start stop their divisions, but they are playing tough baseball right now…

[notin]

Playing 500 is an improvement, but to me not good enough. Have the Red Sox sunk that low that 500 is good enough now?

 

There are 134 games left.

 

The Red Sox have actually played a surprisingly tough schedule so far. They’ve played first and second place teams almost exclusively, with only Anaheim and Detroit don’t fit the bill.

 

I don’t expect Pitt and Minnesota to start stop their divisions, but they are playing tough baseball right now…

[moonslav59]

I was one of the biggest hopefuls on Yoshida when everyone else gave up on him. The reason why was because despite the stat line you could see the advance approach. K and BB rates are some of the earliest predictors of success and stabilize after a smaller sample size than most other stats.

 

For the SAME reasons I’m sticking with Casas. The kid has an advanced approach. The stats aren’t there yet, but he passes the EYE TEST big time. Mark my words. Casas will be fine.

 

Not everyone.

[moonslav59]

I never thought I would become this guy who reacts to every win and loss, but that's the way I've been so far this year.

 

Any frustration I've had has not been directed toward the players or Cora, it's been towards Henry and Bloom for not doing more to bolster the team's chances.

 

So, maybe we are just a 4 game win streak away from you feeling bliss.

[Bellhorn04]

So, maybe we are just a 4 game win streak away from you feeling bliss.

 

Maybe not bliss, but a temporarily elevated mood at least.

[Old Red]

There are 134 games left.

 

The Red Sox have actually played a surprisingly tough schedule so far. They’ve played first and second place teams almost exclusively, with only Anaheim and Detroit don’t fit the bill.

 

I don’t expect Pitt and Minnesota to start stop their divisions, but they are playing tough baseball right now…

 

The fact that Pittsburgh has the record it does proves my point that the whole MLB is very watered down this year. Pitts is not as good as their record. I don’t care how many first, and second place teams the Red Sox have played so far, or will play. If you can’t beat the supposedly good teams chances are you’re not that good yourself.

[Old Red]

I think you have said before you don’t like people putting words in your mouth. Who is saying .500 is good enough? And I’ll revert back to B. Who is satisfied with this team?

 

I was asking the 500 question in general.

[moonslav59]

A. If many expectations were a losing team, would t .500 be an improvement and bright spot for the future.

Playing devils advocate here. In a big market like Boston 3/4 years in last place should be unacceptable.

 

B. Who is satisfied here?

 

Nobody is even close to being satisfied, but some seem to gravitate towards gloom & doom, more than others.

 

My hopes have certainly dropped from where they were after the opening series, but they are not dashed.

 

Yes, part of the reason they are not dashed has to do with how almost every AL team has some serious issues, too, and just haven't been bitten by them, yet, but also because I still see a lot of promise in our players. Then, there are the returning players added promise.

 

Perhaps, my biggest reason for promise may surprise some, here. It is actually the starting rotation. As badly as they have done, we are still just 1GB the WC. It appears we don't need greatness from the rotation- just some sort return to close to norms by most of them.

 

I could end up with dozens of eggs on my face, but I refuse to believe these guys are and will continue to be as bad as they have been.

 

How many more wins would we have, right now, had Sale (8.22), Kluber (6.75), Bello (6.57) and Whitlock (6.19) just been at 5.00, let alone near their career norms? Had Pivetta been at his 4.47 ERA, since joining the Sox, instead of 5.11, do we have one more win? How about Houck at 4.50?

 

My point is, we may not need these guys to be at 3.00 to 3.75 to have a good chance at advancing through a round or two of the playoffs. I know there might not be any signs these guys can or will turn things around, but is it unreasonable to think 3-4 of these guys might give us these ERAs over the remainder of the season (not counting their starts to the season:)

 

Houck 4.10 (3.50 career ERA as a SP in 25 GS, including 2023.)

Whitlock 4.20 (4.15 ERA as a SP'er, last season in 9 GS) assuming healthy

Sale 4.30 (4.09 ERA from 2019-2022)

Bello 4.40 (3.83 last 11 games in 2022)

Pivetta 4.50 (4.47 ERA w Sox from 2020-2022)

Kluber 4.60 (4.34 in 2022/ 4.36 after injury in 55 GS)

Paxton 4.75 ???

 

Is it absurd to actually expect 3-4 of these happening?

 

Edited April 30, 2023 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

The fact that Pittsburgh has the record it does proves my point that the whole MLB is very watered down this year. Pitts is not as good as their record. I don’t care how many first, and second place teams the Red Sox have played so far, or will play. If you can’t beat the supposedly good teams chances are you’re not that good yourself.

 

How do you know Benny's Bucs aren't for real?

[moonslav59]

How do you know Benny's Bucs aren't for real?

 

If Ben leads the Bucs to greatness, it would crush his narrative.

[notin]

The fact that Pittsburgh has the record it does proves my point that the whole MLB is very watered down this year. Pitts is not as good as their record. I don’t care how many first, and second place teams the Red Sox have played so far, or will play. If you can’t beat the supposedly good teams chances are you’re not that good yourself.

 

Says the guy who spent the entire off-season citing the Sox finished “behind the Orioles” as if they were still a 52-110 and not, you, an 85 win team that just missed the postseason.

 

Also don’t forget, a lot of teams the Sox have played that have elite records have played either the Royals or A’s or White Sox or Reds or some other last place team. What last place losing team have the Red Sox played? The Sox have only played one series against a team with a losing record. How many of these “good” teams have? Even Tampa can’t say that…

Edited April 30, 2023 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

If Ben leads the Bucs to greatness, it would crush his narrative.

 

Roansy Contreras has been pitching very well for them. The really nice thing is that Ben got him from the Yanks in the Taillon trade.

[notin]

The fact that Pittsburgh has the record it does proves my point that the whole MLB is very watered down this year. Pitts is not as good as their record. I don’t care how many first, and second place teams the Red Sox have played so far, or will play. If you can’t beat the supposedly good teams chances are you’re not that good yourself.

 

 

You really do like to argue both sides of this. Last year the Sox went through post season teams Houston, Seattle, Cleveland, St. Louis, etc. And your response was “that doesn’t count those teams are struggling at the time. Right now teams like Pitt and Minnesota are clearly not struggling and playing very well, but your attitude is “that doesn’t matter. They’re not good teams.”

[notin]

Roansy Contreras has been pitching very well for them. The really nice thing is that Ben got him from the Yanks in the Taillon trade.

 

And they’re staying in top without their (arguably) best position player in Oneil Cruz…

[Old Red]

You really do like to argue both sides of this. Last year the Sox went through post season teams Houston, Seattle, Cleveland, St. Louis, etc. And your response was “that doesn’t count those teams are struggling at the time. Right now teams like Pitt and Minnesota are clearly not struggling and playing very well, but your attitude is “that doesn’t matter. They’re not good teams.”

All I’ve heard so many times on here if the Red Sox played in a weaker Div, and played a weaker schedule they would be a better team. Wha, wha, wha. I would rather the Red Sox play the Yankees 50 times a year than play the A’s 50 times a year, and let the record be whatever. What I said, and will say again is that all of MLB is very watered down, so take it anyway you want.

[Old Red]

How do you know Benny's Bucs aren't for real?

 

Real in a watered down league. You bet, and their record shows it, and they put the broom to the Red Sox.

Edited April 30, 2023 by Old Red

[Hugh2]

All I’ve heard so many times on here if the Red Sox played in a weaker Div, and played a weaker schedule they would be a better team. Wha, wha, wha. I would rather the Red Sox play the Yankees 50 times a year than play the A’s 50 times a year, and let the record be whatever. What I said, and will say again is that all of MLB is very watered down, so take it anyway you want.

 

That very well may be a stupid excuse BUT to date they have, and have BY FAR had the toughest schedule in the AL East.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The new schedule -- less AL East games! -- might help the Sox win more than last year... and I will be the first to applaud the entire franchise if they win as many as 81 and finish .500.

 

But the sked, in my opinion, was always an overrated factor in the Sox making the postseason, simply because the Rays, Jays, O's and Skanks all play less games vs. each other, too. There are three wild card berths at stake for October, along with three division champs. The schedule doesn't make it any easier to qualify for the Red Sox...

[Old Red]

That very well may be a stupid excuse BUT to date they have, and have BY FAR had the toughest schedule in the AL East.

 

And like I said if you can’t beat the teams with the better records then you’re probably not that good yourself.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox did win series against Minnesota and Milwaukee. And we're 3-3 vs. Baltimore. So it hasn't been all weak sisters we've beaten.

[Old Red]

The Sox did win series against Minnesota and Milwaukee. And we're 3-3 vs. Baltimore. So it hasn't been all weak sisters we've beaten.

 

If you look at their records, and say great that’s fine, but I just don’t think the quality of teams anymore are anything like they were a few years ago, but still you are going to have winning first place teams.

[notin]

The Sox did win series against Minnesota and Milwaukee. And we're 3-3 vs. Baltimore. So it hasn't been all weak sisters we've beaten.

 

Anaheim would have a better record than Boston if not for losing 3 out of 4 to Boston…

[notin]

Real in a watered down league. You bet, and their record shows it, and they put the broom to the Red Sox.

 

They also took 2 out of 3 from the Dodgers and outscored them 21-11 in the process…

[Hugh2]

And like I said if you can’t beat the teams with the better records then you’re probably not that good yourself.

 

No, they’re about .500 against them playing 1/6 of the season. So what does that really say?

 

Plenty of baseball left to play. Buckle up buckaroo

[moonslav59]

Ignore the facts, if you want to think gloom & doom...

 

Team Records vs Sox and vs rest of league:

v Sox / v others

4-0 TBR 19-5

3-0 PIT 17-8

3-3 BAL 15-6

1-1 CLE 12-13

1-2 MIL 17-7

1-2 MIN 15-10

1-3 LAA 13-11

0-3 DET 10-13

 

118- 73 vs others

14-14 vs the Sox

 

I thought the idea was always to play .500 vs good teams and mop up on the bad ones.

 

Note: we will play the bad teams, at some point.

 

Wow, even Detroit is not far from .500, if the never played us.

 

We are at .500 or better vs these 4 teams with winning records outside of playing us:

BAL, MIL, MIN & LAA

 

We are below .500 vs these 2:

TBR & PIT

 

Call it a balanced mediocre league all you want, but just don't say we can't beat winning teams. We've beaten 3, tied 1 and lost to 2.

 

[moonslav59]

No, they’re about .500 against them playing 1/6 of the season. So what does that really say?

 

Plenty of baseball left to play. Buckle up buckaroo

 

The schedule is more balanced than I can ever remember, so we will eventually play the bad teams, and a few winning teams will begin playing more winning teams than they have, so far.

 

We still have to beat the bad teams, and being at .500, now is nothing to be happy about, but we do have some tings working in our favor, if we choose to look at the bright side once in a while.

[Bellhorn04]

The schedule is more balanced than I can ever remember

 

Pretty sure it's more balanced than any schedule in baseball history.