A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Hugh2]

Imagine if this team won just two more games. We’d be in the playoffs. Now imagine we did that against bad teams…..how many would be saying “yeah but it’s against bad teams”. I’ve heard others make that argument in the past.

 

Look, there’s two types of people in this world, cup half full people, and cup half empty. I prefer to not be a negative Nancy.

 

I suppose the natural rebuttal to that is “but we’re just being realistic” no. No. No one is saying this team is great and is going to win 100 games, no one is being unrealistic on the other side. Literally no one is saying that. Assuming the worse, and throwing in the towel on a .500 team when you’re 1/6 of the way through the season is the definition pessimism.

 

There’s nothing wrong with this. We need those types of people to go away and drive revenue down so management can’t realize there are real consequences to inept actions. Apply this concept to any walk of life. Not criticizing anyone just pointing out the facts. People have a right to root in their own way, it’s a free country and all opinions matter. In my opinion, I don’t like being a Donny downer, except when I am but we are not pointing out my own hypocrisy here. Nope. Not doing it.

[moonslav59]

Imagine if this team won just two more games. We’d be in the playoffs. Now imagine we did that against bad teams…..how many would be saying “yeah but it’s against bad teams”. I’ve heard others make that argument in the past.

 

Look, there’s two types of people in this world, cup half full people, and cup half empty. I prefer to not be a negative Nancy.

 

I suppose the natural rebuttal to that is “but we’re just being realistic” no. No. No one is saying this team is great and is going to win 100 games, no one is being unrealistic on the other side. Literally no one is saying that. Assuming the worse, and throwing in the towel on a .500 team when you’re 1/6 of the way through the season is the definition pessimism.

 

There’s nothing wrong with this. We need those types of people to go away and drive revenue down so management can’t realize there are real consequences to inept actions. Apply this concept to any walk of life. Not criticizing anyone just pointing out the facts. People have a right to root in their own way, it’s a free country and all opinions matter. In my opinion, I don’t like being a Donny downer, except when I am but we are not pointing out my own hypocrisy here. Nope. Not doing it.

 

If the Sox win, it would ruin the ongoing narrative for some.

 

You are right: I keep hearing about the legions of "Bloom apologists" and the big crowd of "Bloom can do no wrong" sayers, but when pressed for names or examples, it's cricketts.

 

Not one person is happy with .500 or is calling it a success. Pointing out that we are .500 vs teams that are .618 vs all others is not claiming glory or success, It's just stating facts and pointing towards a possible bright side to being .500 with more games to go vs bad teams than those in front of us.

 

This team has some serious weaknesses, and IMO, the worst one to have is SP'ing, so I am far from thinking we are looking successful, right now.

 

I still see hope our starters will turn things around, and with parity the way it looks, right now, maybe they don't have to be great to ride this train to something that resembles success.

[moonslav59]

Pretty sure it's more balanced than any schedule in baseball history.

 

I almost said that, but I'm not sure how it looked a century ago.

[notin]

Yankees trail Texas 14-1.

 

Assuming no major bullpen catastrophe, the Yankees would move into the cellar, tied with Boston…

[notin]

Rays give up 7 runs in the ninth inning to lose to the White Sox…

[Nick]

Focus should be on fixing our own house. Bello and Sale's starts are certainly encouraging.

[Nick]

Only 1B appears to be our major weakness right now.

 

I am ready to add Duran and Wong to our 'core' group.

[Nick]

When Story comes back, we'll have every position covered with exception of SS and DH long term. (Assuming we extend Verdugo).

[moonslav59]

Only 1B appears to be our major weakness right now.

 

I am ready to add Duran and Wong to our 'core' group.

 

Too early to know about Duran and Wong, but I’m liking what I see, too. I think 1B will be fine, in the long run, and with so many players hitting well, we can always shuffle Turner to 1B and go with the hot bat at DH, even if as a platoon.

Arroyo’s warming up makes 2B look much better,now, but I’m not convinced he can last until Story or Mondesi return.

Look how well we are hitting without Duvall! Wow!

We will need more than Sale and Bello doing well as SPers, but we had to start somewhere. We need the others to regress back to the mean.

[moonslav59]

When Story comes back, we'll have every position covered with exception of SS and DH long term. (Assuming we extend Verdugo).

 

E Valdez at DH?

 

Mayer/Rafaela at SS?

[Nick]

E Valdez at DH?

 

Mayer/Rafaela at SS?

Yep. We are not far off

 

John Henry needs to open his wallet and sign an ace, not Kluber clones.

[moonslav59]

Yep. We are not far off

 

John Henry needs to open his wallet and sign an ace, not Kluber clones.

 

I was hoping this winter would be “the time” we add an ace, but the powers to be keep going with $7-10M hopes and dreams.

[Nick]

Core Group

C. Wong

1B Casas

2B Story

SS TBD (Mayer 2025?)

3B Devers

LF Yoshida

CF Dura

LF Verdugo (assuming. e

xtended)

DH TBD

 

Based on team control..add and subtract as needed

 

We are approximately $15M under cap. That will cover Devers raise.

 

Barnes' $5M will go away. Kike's $10M goes away this year.

 

We need a top line pitcher. Our pen can be strengthened further by using couple of our starters not in top 5.

[Nick]

Cora was right about E Valdez. The kid can flat out hit. He is not intimidated.

 

With developing Wong, Sox made a good trade with the Astros.

 

I am glad that we don't have 3 yr $30M burden on our books.

[Hugh2]

Cora was right about E Valdez. The kid can flat out hit. He is not intimidated.

 

With developing Wong, Sox made a good trade with the Astros.

 

I am glad that we don't have 3 yr $30M burden on our books.

 

Wong was part of the Betts trade. With Verdugo

[Hugh2]

Core Group

C. Wong

1B Casas

2B Story

SS TBD (Mayer 2025?)

3B Devers

LF Yoshida

CF Dura

LF Verdugo (assuming. e

xtended)

DH TBD

 

Based on team control..add and subtract as needed

 

We are approximately $15M under cap. That will cover Devers raise.

 

Barnes' $5M will go away. Kike's $10M goes away this year.

 

We need a top line pitcher. Our pen can be strengthened further by using couple of our starters not in top 5.

 

Paxton and Klubers money comes off as well. Along with Mondesi, Tapia, Braiser and Duvall, I think that’s about another 30.

 

More money comes off the following year, and I really think the Sox go above the cap next year.

[Hugh2]

Wong with a .955 OPS the last 7 games. If this kid can hit, with his defense he completely changes the Betts trade. Kind of ironic, it felt like he was the throw in prospect to Downs.

[moonslav59]

Paxton and Klubers money comes off as well. Along with Mondesi, Tapia, Braiser and Duvall, I think that’s about another 30.

 

More money comes off the following year, and I really think the Sox go above the cap next year.

 

Here is soxprospects.com projected 2025 roster:

 

C Wong/McGuire

1B Casas/Kavadas

2B Story/EValdez

3B Devers/Lugo

SS Mayer/Hamilton

LF Yoshida

CF Rafaela

RF Duran/Abreu

DH Yorke (EValdez)

 

SP Whitlock, Bello, Mata, Walter, Drohan

RP Houck, Schreiber, Wink, Crawford, Mills, Kelly, Murphy, Guerrero, Fernandez

 

2026 Wikelman & Perales join the rotation

Bleis takes over RF

Hickey is the backup catcher

Romero joins the bench

 

Sounds like the 2025 thread has begun.

[Hugh2]

Sounds like the 2025 thread has begun.

 

Their projections are based on players in the Sox system today that are under contract then. It’s a good tool to see where you are thin and would look to improve via trade and FA.

[Hugh2]

For example, if Story’s injury issues continue I could easily see the Sox picking up a middle infielder, a CF/RF, and a starting pitcher or two over the next couple years.

 

Depending on how Wong/McGuire look I could see a catcher too, but as of right now the catching position is showing a lot of promise.

[moonslav59]

Their projections are based on players in the Sox system today that are under contract then. It’s a good tool to see where you are thin and would look to improve via trade and FA.

 

Yes, and there are certainly some gaps:

 

Here is soxprospects.com projected 2025 roster:

 

C Wong/McGuire

1B Casas/Kavadas

2B Story/EValdez

3B Devers/Lugo

SS Mayer/Hamilton

LF Yoshida

CF Rafaela

RF Duran/Abreu

DH Yorke (EValdez)

 

SP Whitlock, Bello, Mata, Walter, Drohan

RP Houck, Schreiber, Wink, Crawford, Mills, Kelly, Murphy, Guerrero, Fernandez

 

2026 Wikelman & Perales join the rotation

Bleis takes over RF

Hickey is the backup catcher

Romero joins the bench

[moonslav59]

For example, if Story’s injury issues continue I could easily see the Sox picking up a middle infielder, a CF/RF, and a starting pitcher or two over the next couple years.

 

Depending on how Wong/McGuire look I could see a catcher too, but as of right now the catching position is showing a lot of promise.

 

I'd say our biggest gaps will be 2-3 slots in the rotation, some pen arms and maybe 1B, RF and SS.

[Hugh2]

I'd say our biggest gaps will be 2-3 slots in the rotation, some pen arms and maybe 1B, RF and SS.

 

Writing Casas off already, huh?

[moonslav59]

Writing Casas off already, huh?

 

No. I said "maybe."

 

Maybe we trade him.

 

I did mention 1B over catcher, so maybe I am undervaluing Casas.

[Larry Cook]

Today Martin got activated and ort was sent down.

 

Does Hang’em Chaim need another quality lefty reliever?

[Maxbialystock]

Today Martin got activated and ort was sent down.

 

Does Hang’em Chaim need another quality lefty reliever?

 

Another? Are you telling me the Sox already have a lefty reliever?

[Maxbialystock]

Wong with a .955 OPS the last 7 games. If this kid can hit, with his defense he completely changes the Betts trade. Kind of ironic, it felt like he was the throw in prospect to Downs.

 

Dugo was also part of that trade, which to me was mostly about dumping salary (all of Mookie's and some of Price's).

[moonslav59]

Another? Are you telling me the Sox already have a lefty reliever?

 

Rocky Bleier doesn’t count?

[Bellhorn04]

Wong was part of the Betts trade. With Verdugo

 

He meant the Vazquez trade was a good trade.

[Hugh2]

He meant the Vazquez trade was a good trade.

 

We didn't get Wong back in the Vasquez trade. We got Emmanuel Valdez and Wilyer Abreu back.