A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Nick]

Tomorrow is another must see TV. Bello's 1st start. Loved today's game with Whitlock. And less than 2 hours to complete.

 

I hope I never experience 4+ hours of Yankee games.

[dgalehouse]

Although it's been said many times, many ways, a baseball season is a marathon not a sprint. But still we forget.

[moonslav59]

Has it occurred to anyone else that the title of this thread is unachievable?

 

When I first started these threads back at the old site, it was in hopes that posters would keep their suggest trades like Braiser, Ort and Refsnyder for Trout on other threads.

 

It didn't work then, either.

[moonslav59]

Back to topic A--I do not see how anyone can formulate a realistic explanation of this season so far. I sure can't.

 

I think we all kinda felt this season was full of so many questions, hopes and doubts.

 

I think what we have seen has been about what maybe should have been expected. I'm hopeful some questions will be answered, some doubts put to rest, and some hopes achieved.

 

To me, it's going to be about the rotation, but I'm beginning to think we may find a successful group of 5 without needing Sale to be a stud.

 

Is that so UNrealistic?

 

[moonslav59]

Despite many things going wrong, we are 8-8.

 

#1 issue at the CONClUSION of last season was to improve the pen. I do think we r better there just on the strength of our new closer.

 

While Martin has not looked super impressive, I think the group of Matin, Schreiber and Winckowski is falling into a groove that could easily do better than last year's 2-4 pen guys. If Houck or some other SP'er moves to the pen, we could see a vastly improved and deeper pen than we have seen in over 3-4 years.

[moonslav59]

Updated Team OBP Leaders

 

.514 Duvall (out for a while)

.417 McGuire (plays less than Wong)

.389 Turner (notorious second half hitter)

.386 Verdugo (loving his changed approach)

.385 Tapia (small sample size)

.366 Refsnyder (maybe 2022 was not such a fluke)

.364 Dalbec (tiny sample size)

.354 Yoshida (finding ways to get on base)

.308 Devers (The .656 SLG makes up for this)

.274 Kike (on the rise)

.250 Wong (needs to start showing some O)

.204 Arroyo (rough start)

.200 Casas (not living up to the hopes)

.160 Chang (placeholder)

 

 

[vegasbob]

Updated Team OBP Leaders

 

.514 Duvall (out for a while)

.417 McGuire (plays less than Wong)

.389 Turner (notorious second half hitter)

.386 Verdugo (loving his changed approach)

.385 Tapia (small sample size)

.366 Refsnyder (maybe 2022 was not such a fluke)

.364 Dalbec (tiny sample size)

.354 Yoshida (finding ways to get on base)

.308 Devers (The .656 SLG makes up for this)

.274 Kike (on the rise)

.250 Wong (needs to start showing some O)

.204 Arroyo (rough start)

.200 Casas (not living up to the hopes)

.160 Chang (placeholder)

 

 

 

The real problem caused by the last 4 guys on your list is that they are the 6-9 hitters most games this season. Kike does appear to have found a bit of bat. Those guys are not on base when the lineup turns over to Dugo & Devers & Turner.

[Nick]

I would like for Tapia to be inserted into the lineup.

 

Maybe that means Kike playing 2B or Turner at 1B and Yoshida DH.

 

He has quick bat and speed on basepath.

 

With Duval out we need help offensively.

Edited April 16, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

The real problem caused by the last 4 guys on your list is that they are the 6-9 hitters most games this season. Kike does appear to have found a bit of bat. Those guys are not on base when the lineup turns over to Dugo & Devers & Turner.

 

Getting Duvall and/or Story back will lengthen the line-up, but yes, until they come back, we will need our 6-9 hitters to do more.

 

Right now, it looks like we have just 4 decent hitter or better:

Devers

Turner

Verdugo

Yoshida (not proven, yet)

 

There is still hope one of these guys can hit .800:

Kike

Casas

 

Maybe .775+

Refsnyder

McGuire

Arroyo

 

Need better than .650 from...

Wong

Dalbec

Chang

 

I'm not sure Tapia will get to play much, unless Change keeps hitting near his 4 something OPS.

 

Some of our worst hitters are near the top or middle of our PA leaders:

 

PAs and OPS ranking

72 Turner 6th

70 Dugo 5th

65 Devers 3rd

62 Kike 9th

50 Arroyo 13th

50 Casas 11th

48 Yoshida 8th

41 Ref 7th

37 Duvall 1st

36 Wong 12th

Two of our best OPS guys have among the least PAs on the team:

25 Chang 14th

25 McGuire 4th

14 Tapia 2nd

11 Dalbec 10th

[moonslav59]

With no Duvall, out 9 best hitters by OPS, regardless of sample sizes are:

 

.968 Tapia CF

.964 Devers 3B

.939 McGuire C

.815 Verdugo RF

.779 Turner 1B

.699 Refsnyder LF

.662 Yoshida DH

.607 Kike 2B

.586 Dalbec SS

 

Bench

.511 Casas

.500 Wong

.417 Arroyo

.377 Chang

 

I'd play Casas or Arroyo over Dalbec.

 

[Nick]

I don't believe Cora will ignore Tapia.

 

I see him getting opportunity against right hand starters.

[Maxbialystock]

Although it's been said many times, many ways, a baseball season is a marathon not a sprint. But still we forget.

 

We react, which is normal, especially on a blog site.

 

Besides, this team is frightening.

[Maxbialystock]

I think we all kinda felt this season was full of so many questions, hopes and doubts.

 

I think what we have seen has been about what maybe should have been expected. I'm hopeful some questions will be answered, some doubts put to rest, and some hopes achieved.

 

To me, it's going to be about the rotation, but I'm beginning to think we may find a successful group of 5 without needing Sale to be a stud.

 

Is that so UNrealistic?

 

 

Getting past Sale is almost a necessity, as it was in 2021when the Sox beat the Yankees and Rays to get to the ALCS without a closer.

 

My comment was meant to say this season so far is unreal, Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde unreal.

Edited April 17, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[notin]

We react, which is normal, especially on a blog site.

 

Besides, this team is frightening.

 

Not really.

 

Mostly there’s been some weird overreactions on this board that make it seem that way…

[Bellhorn04]

Not really.

 

Mostly there’s been some weird overreactions on this board that make it seem that way…

 

OTOH, the Red Sox have been an incredibly weird franchise since 2011-2012...

[notin]

OTOH, the Red Sox have been an incredibly weird franchise since 2011-2012...

 

Oh you’re just saying that because they’ve finished either first or fifth 10 times the past 12 seasons…

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah, I mean, after finishing last 5 times in the last 11, it's not really irrational to think it could happen again...

[notin]

Yeah, I mean, after finishing last 5 times in the last 11, it's not really irrational to think it could happen again...

 

We also know by now it’s not permanent.

 

And last season, the last place finish said more about the other teams in the AL East than it did the Sox…

[Bellhorn04]

We also know by now it’s not permanent.

 

And last season, the last place finish said more about the other teams in the AL East than it did the Sox…

 

But those other AL East teams didn't really get worse, either...

[mvp 78]

I don't believe Cora will ignore Tapia.

 

I see him getting opportunity against right hand starters.

 

OPS vs LHP Career: 682

OPS vs RHP Career: 720

 

Cora is definitely going heavy with the platooning early on. It makes sense for Refsnyder (career OPS vs LHP is 100 points higher, 550 in 2023) and McGuire (career OPS vs RHP is 250 points higher). However, sometimes you just have to go with the guys that are playing well.

[mvp 78]

Not really.

 

Mostly there’s been some weird overreactions on this board that make it seem that way…

 

That's what happens when you start with an ugly loss on Opening Day, get swept by the Pirates, then sweep the Tigers, then get swept by the Rays, then win 3 straight against the Angels...

[Hugh2]

OPS vs LHP Career: 682

OPS vs RHP Career: 720

 

Cora is definitely going heavy with the platooning early on. It makes sense for Refsnyder (career OPS vs LHP is 100 points higher, 550 in 2023) and McGuire (career OPS vs RHP is 250 points higher). However, sometimes you just have to go with the guys that are playing well.

 

Well on this team, there's a few positions were sometimes you gotta just go with the guy who can field the position and hopes he hits, and if he doesn't hope they make it up elsewhere.

 

I like a good platoon, and this team has plenty of opportunities for them, but I don't wanna see Dalbec at SS no more. It was actually surprisingly not as bad as I thought it would be, but it was still subpar enough to not want to stomach.

[moonslav59]

Getting past Sale is almost a necessity, as it was in 2021when the Sox beat the Yankees and Rays to get to the ALCS without a closer.

 

My comment was meant to say this season so far is unreal, Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde unreal.

 

I get your point. There are steady .500 teams and rollercoaster .500 teams, and we have been the latter.

 

I do think getting Whitlock back was huge, but losing Duvall hurt like hell, since he was our hottest hitter. At some point, we should get Story, Mondesi and Duvall back, and we will be seeing Bello & Paxton, soon and Joely and maybe Mills, later on. Of course, we are likely to lose another player or two to injury, but I think we will be seeing a different team come July and August. (I know, we heard the same thing, last spring.)

 

I do realize this team could easily finish in last, again, but I'm thinking it is more likely we compete for a playoff slot, right to the end. I think our pitching staff is better and deeper than many think it is, and what we have seen, up to now, is not "the norm."

 

My biggest worry is the defense. If by mid season, with the return of Story and/or Mondesi, having Kike in CF and one of those 2 at SS would greatly improve the D, especially up the middle. Casas and Devers are ok to fine at the corner IF slots, so our D coulkd go from bottom 5-10 to maybe middle 10, overnight. That could boost the pitching, as well.

[Hugh2]

But those other AL East teams didn't really get worse, either...

 

You won't see me placing any bets saying this team will finish first in this division, but I do feel last year's team underperformed against the A.L. East. I think it could be both true that they weren't as good as those teams, but could have performed better.

[moonslav59]

But those other AL East teams didn't really get worse, either...

 

The O's lost some good veteran talent and club house leaders.

 

The should make that up as their plentiful young players get one year closer to prime, but on paper, they look worse.

 

The other teams added talent but lost some, too. They all have some big question marks, too.

[notin]

But those other AL East teams didn't really get worse, either...

 

No.

 

But the Sox weren’t out of range to begin with and did improve.

 

I think they are more likely to insist fifth than first, but I also think the most likely outcome is neither place…

[mvp 78]

OTOH, the Red Sox have been an incredibly weird franchise since 2011-2012...

 

I'd push that back much further.

 

Ownership messes loses Fisk and Lynn for no good reason

Game 6

Margot Adams leads to Boggs celebrating on a horse in the Bronx

Greatest modern pitcher gets disgruntled and fat, leaves, does steroids and wreaks havoc for the second half of his career

Robotic GM signs modern day Sandy Koufax who tells the next GM to sign the most clutch player in MLB history

2003 ALCS

Trade grumpy franchise greatest SS, win WS after being down 0-3 in ALCS to Yankees

Lose half of the 2004 team before winning the WS again in 2007

Mediocre years aside from WS wins lead GM to "feed the monster"

[moonslav59]

I'd push that back much further.

 

Ownership messes loses Fisk and Lynn for no good reason

Game 6

Margot Adams leads to Boggs celebrating on a horse in the Bronx

Greatest modern pitcher gets disgruntled and fat, leaves, does steroids and wreaks havoc for the second half of his career

Robotic GM signs modern day Sandy Koufax who tells the next GM to sign the most clutch player in MLB history

2003 ALCS

Trade grumpy franchise greatest SS, win WS after being down 0-3 in ALCS to Yankees

Lose half of the 2004 team before winning the WS again in 2007

Mediocre years aside from WS wins lead GM to "feed the monster"

 

Great list, and really just part of a very long list of some weird stuff.

[Nick]

My first impression of Duran call up and his sub .200 average was an ugh. But then I saw his OBP was reasonable helped by 10 walks.

 

Is it time to get rid of BA? We focus on OPS and that's a cobination of OBP and SLUG%.

 

Anyone know what the average OBP is?

[Bellhorn04]

You won't see me placing any bets saying this team will finish first in this division, but I do feel last year's team underperformed against the A.L. East. I think it could be both true that they weren't as good as those teams, but could have performed better.

 

"Could have".