A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

Speaking of JD he hit his 32 HR last night, and drove in his 100 RBI. Forget about him outhitting JT his 901 OPS has outhit Raffy, and in 150 less AB. No I don’t think the Red Sox should have resigned him, and JT has worked out well, but good to see JD has bounced back this year. Just saying.

 

How's he doing compared to our shiny new DH Yoshida, though?

[Bellhorn04]

The first 5 slots in any batting order are usually reserved for teams' best hitters. On winning teams, those guys are often star players.

 

The 2018 champs were loaded with star players. Their first five batters in the final game when they won their rings featured four players with a minimum of 4.8 WAR -- Betts, JD, Bogey, Beni -- plus World Series MVP Steve Pearce.

 

The 2023 chumps have zero players with 4 WAR. Devers is the closest at 3.5 WAR, and no other position players even have a 3 WAR.

 

Baseball Reference considers 5+ WAR as "All-Star Quality."

 

The last-place Red Sox have no stars and no quality.

 

Gloves, this roster is in such bad shape that the plan for 2024 should either be:

 

1) Spend like a smarter and luckier version of Steve Cohen.

 

Or

 

2) Punt again.

[Old Red]

How's he doing compared to our shiny new DH Yoshida, though?

 

JD has finished strong. NOshida has not.

[mvp 78]

I think you rely far too much on that psychic cat…

 

We all have our own faults.

[moonslav59]

Gloves, this roster is in such bad shape that the plan for 2024 should either be:

 

1) Spend like a smarter and luckier version of Steve Cohen.

 

Or

 

2) Punt again.

 

They will probably choose #3, again.

 

Play it halfway. Try to make it look like they want to win, now, but do nothing that sacrifices any of the future.

 

IMO, they will come close to the lux tax line and maybe not go over, again. I doubt they spend close to the second line, like I hope they do.

[Bellhorn04]

They will probably choose #3, again.

 

Play it halfway. Try to make it look like they want to win, now, but do nothing that sacrifices any of the future.

 

IMO, they will come close to the lux tax line and maybe not go over, again. I doubt they spend close to the second line, like I hope they do.

 

I think they're very confused about which way to go at this point.

[mvp 78]

The first 5 slots in any batting order are usually reserved for teams' best hitters. On winning teams, those guys are often star players.

 

The 2018 champs were loaded with star players. Their first five batters in the final game when they won their rings featured four players with a minimum of 4.8 WAR -- Betts, JD, Bogey, Beni -- plus World Series MVP Steve Pearce.

 

The 2023 chumps have zero players with 4 WAR. Devers is the closest at 3.5 WAR, and no other position players even have a 3 WAR.

 

Baseball Reference considers 5+ WAR as "All-Star Quality."

 

The last-place Red Sox have no stars and no quality.

 

There are only 23 players with more than 5 bWAR. That's less than 1 per team. In fact, only 14 teams have a player with 5 bWAR, less than half the league.

[Hugh2]

I remember wanting to give J.D. a QO and I was called crazy.

 

I was called crazy for wanting to give one to both Wacha and Eovaldi instead.

 

All three of course were contingent upon how comfortable they would be with their medicals and to be fair and best to my recollection I said one to the two of Nat and Michael. But Nate took rejected his when so many wouldn't even offer it because they thought he would take it. Turns out it would not have been a bad one-year signing, but in the end Nate probably would not have made a difference, and the Sox net a pick so at least there is that.

 

in the new CBA world where more than money matters 1-year deals have real value. Yes, the money matters, of course, it matters, let us reframe that statement, it's so much more about WHEN you're spending the money now. These billionaires have the incentive to get under the luxury tax line, but it's equally true that if they want to compete once they have exceeded those thresholds it costs them relatively nothing to just spend up to the next. Overspend on a guy or two for 1-2 years to get them to sign HERE and then by the time they're off the books you need that money gone to reset.

 

Even if you greatly overpay a guy for a year, if you're not planning on resetting that year and that overpay GUARANTEES you sign said player and plug up a hole you should just do it a lot of the time.

 

I would say the same thing about Paxton this year. He's kind of in the same exact boat as Nate and Michael were last year. He's had a decent year but he has obviously slowed down lately. I will say the same thing about him that I said last year about Wacha and Eovaldi, if they're comfortable with his medicals, and they plan on going above the luxury tax line just offer it. If he accepts, you need 3 starting pitchers anyway, if he declines....draft pick.

 

Eovaldi - 4.91 ERA in the second half last year, but much better numbers down the stretch but was limited in August/sept which had some concerns about his durability due to his history. People thought his arm was falling off and should not be signed to a long-term contract. Fine, but a QO was the right decision. Many didn't like it.

 

Wacha is probably a better comparison in terms of performance. In setp/oct last year, he put up a 5.57 era in 6 starts. He did not look good down the stretch and no one wanted to sign him or offer a QO. It would have been a fine decision.

 

People have a recency bias, and with that Paxton does not look like a good candidate for Q.O. but he hasn't pitched more than 20 innings since 2019, and pitched none last year. It could very well be that he's just tired, and comes back next year with more stamina and has one of his best years just like Eovaldi. 4 year worthy? hell no, but I'd take a flyer on Paxton after his performance this year for just ONE year, especially if he's being offered one in conjunction of signing two other legit starting pitchers E.G. Nola/Yama

Edited September 29, 2023 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[moonslav59]

I think they're very confused about which way to go at this point.

 

Hard to choose the right GM, when you don't know the direction you want to go.

[Hugh2]

Gloves, this roster is in such bad shape that the plan for 2024 should either be:

 

1) Spend like a smarter and luckier version of Steve Cohen.

 

Or

 

2) Punt again.

 

Let me add, 1 did not work out too well for the Mets. If they had a college course on building a baseball team, it would be a fun assignment to tell students to compare the Dodgers to the Mets, compare and contrast and write an essay on why LA was successful this year and NY was not.

 

I think I would expect to see the A students in the class point out that large franchises that have the money to spend, with that, only see success when they also have a stream of homegrown talent coming up through the system. Yes they spend a ton of money, but they bring guys up like Will Smith, Julio Urias, and James Outman too and develop and keep homegrown players like Clayton Kershaw.

When you can do that, it's easy to go out and just throw money at plugging up your holes, and if you overspend on a guy or two so what? that's the price of admission, and the sting is less when you DON'T have to spend money on other positions because you can bring up homegrown talent.

 

This is precisely why I'm against trading away our farm for starting pitching. To me it would be the opposite pendulum swing of what Cohen is doing but equally bad. We are not there yet. If guys like Mayer, Casas, Anthony, Teel, Perales, and Rafaela are real studs, then that value lost will have to be made up for by going out in free agency and overspending on a guy. You just rob peter to pay paul, which I'm fine with when the iron is hot.

 

I see a team that has potential in it's organization between talent that is young and has arrived E.G. Casas, Bello, Devers and guys on the cusp or a year or so away who could be real studs E.G. Mayer, Anthony. That's a possible core, that's a possible core that costs you very little so you just go out and spend money on guys like Nola, Yama, Snell etc.

 

The other option is to punt one more year. After all, the 2025 free agent class looks like it has some real nice pitching in it as well.

[Bellhorn04]

There are only 23 players with more than 5 bWAR. That's less than 1 per team. In fact, only 14 teams have a player with 5 bWAR, less than half the league.

 

Yeah, I think 5 WAR is setting the bar too high. 4 WAR is excellent. 5 is rare as you say.

[Bellhorn04]

Hard to choose the right GM, when you don't know the direction you want to go.

 

Especially after you've turfed both Mr. Big Spender and Mr. Long Term Builder 4 years in.

[mvp 78]

Especially after you've turfed both Mr. Big Spender and Mr. Long Term Builder 4 years in.

 

I think they are going to try camel through the eye of a needle. Might work?

[Bellhorn04]

I think they are going to try camel through the eye of a needle. Might work?

 

Bloom tried that too.

[mvp 78]

Bloom tried that too.

 

If Bloom won 85 games in '22 and '23, he'd still have a job. His lack of thought towards the starting rotation this season is what doomed him. His poor communication with the players is why last season's team tanked.

[sk7326]

The first 5 slots in any batting order are usually reserved for teams' best hitters. On winning teams, those guys are often star players.

 

The 2018 champs were loaded with star players. Their first five batters in the final game when they won their rings featured four players with a minimum of 4.8 WAR -- Betts, JD, Bogey, Beni -- plus World Series MVP Steve Pearce.

 

The 2023 chumps have zero players with 4 WAR. Devers is the closest at 3.5 WAR, and no other position players even have a 3 WAR.

 

Baseball Reference considers 5+ WAR as "All-Star Quality."

 

The last-place Red Sox have no stars and no quality.

 

Devers has not been great this season, but he has been a 5 win player before and is a doddering 26.

 

This team is not as good as a 108 win team. Stop the presses.

[moonslav59]

Let me add, 1 did not work out too well for the Mets. If they had a college course on building a baseball team, it would be a fun assignment to tell students to compare the Dodgers to the Mets, compare and contrast and write an essay on why LA was successful this year and NY was not.

 

I think I would expect to see the A students in the class point out that large franchises that have the money to spend, with that, only see success when they also have a stream of homegrown talent coming up through the system. Yes they spend a ton of money, but they bring guys up like Will Smith, Julio Urias, and James Outman too and develop and keep homegrown players like Clayton Kershaw.

When you can do that, it's easy to go out and just throw money at plugging up your holes, and if you overspend on a guy or two so what? that's the price of admission, and the sting is less when you DON'T have to spend money on other positions because you can bring up homegrown talent.

 

This is precisely why I'm against trading away our farm for starting pitching. To me it would be the opposite pendulum swing of what Cohen is doing but equally bad. We are not there yet. If guys like Mayer, Casas, Anthony, Teel, Perales, and Rafaela are real studs, then that value lost will have to be made up for by going out in free agency and overspending on a guy. You just rob peter to pay paul, which I'm fine with when the iron is hot.

 

I see a team that has potential in it's organization between talent that is young and has arrived E.G. Casas, Bello, Devers and guys on the cusp or a year or so away who could be real studs E.G. Mayer, Anthony. That's a possible core, that's a possible core that costs you very little so you just go out and spend money on guys like Nola, Yama, Snell etc.

 

The other option is to punt one more year. After all, the 2025 free agent class looks like it has some real nice pitching in it as well.

 

I would not trade a bunch of top prospects for a 28 year old 1 year guy, or 27 y/o two year guy, but if we can get 3+ year from a younger pitcher who has already shown he can pitch in professional ball, then it has to be considered, seriously.

 

This effectively takes the place of drafting and developing pitchers in your own system.

[Hugh2]

I would not trade a bunch of top prospects for a 28 year old 1 year guy, or 27 y/o two year guy, but if we can get 3+ year from a younger pitcher who has already shown he can pitch in professional ball, then it has to be considered, seriously.

 

This effectively takes the place of drafting and developing pitchers in your own system.

 

I disagree.

 

Having a really good pitcher means nothing if the rest of the team isn't up to par.

 

SEE - Ohtani on LA.

 

The Sox aren't good enough yet to justify trading away 3-4 top prospects for one guy. They just are not. You dont' do that as a last place team.

[mvp 78]

I disagree.

 

Having a really good pitcher means nothing if the rest of the team isn't up to par.

 

SEE - Ohtani on LA.

 

The Sox aren't good enough yet to justify trading away 3-4 top prospects for one guy. They just are not. You dont' do that as a last place team.

 

If Masa rebounds, Story returns to form and the kids in the OF stay consistent, adding an ace pitcher would actually go a long way. A large part of the reason this team fell apart was that the bullpen was overtaxed.

[Old Red]

Tek has written volumes in that notebook of his, and Dave Bush has ran marathons out to the mound this year. Throw the notebook away, and tie Bush to the dugout like they did Pedro that time. Nothing worked.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yeah, I think 5 WAR is setting the bar too high. 4 WAR is excellent. 5 is rare as you say.

 

BB-Ref's chart, not mine. But it's a fact the '18 champs had four regulars at 4.8 or higher -- three stars in their primes and another young outfielder who looked like he had star potential. That club also had 21-year-old Raffy, who posted a 5.4 WAR the next season... not to mention, Sale on the mound had 6.4 WAR in '18.

 

There's no way we'll know if Bloom's draftees will ever challenge that group in the MLB -- or even make the bigs or be regulars. But if some of his top prospects aren't awesome, we'll have plenty to type about to at least ward off Old-Timer's disease...

[sk7326]

I disagree.

 

Having a really good pitcher means nothing if the rest of the team isn't up to par.

 

SEE - Ohtani on LA.

 

The Sox aren't good enough yet to justify trading away 3-4 top prospects for one guy. They just are not. You dont' do that as a last place team.

 

If they could get an "ace" sort of pitcher it would help. But I agree in general - what the team needs is at least two #3ish starters (say, what Bello did this year). We need Pivetta's reliability with a better pitcher.

[mvp 78]

If they could get an "ace" sort of pitcher it would help. But I agree in general - what the team needs is at least two #3ish starters (say, what Bello did this year). We need Pivetta's reliability with a better pitcher.

 

I think if they only have #3 starters, it gets them just good enough. They really need to go all in on a guy that can lead the staff.

[moonslav59]

I disagree.

 

Having a really good pitcher means nothing if the rest of the team isn't up to par.

 

SEE - Ohtani on LA.

 

The Sox aren't good enough yet to justify trading away 3-4 top prospects for one guy. They just are not. You dont' do that as a last place team.

 

I did not mean to imply we only need one pitcher.

 

My point has been we need 3.

 

I do think drafting SSs and then trading them for less riskier pitchers than pre-draft ones is a good idea.

[moonslav59]

If they could get an "ace" sort of pitcher it would help. But I agree in general - what the team needs is at least two #3ish starters (say, what Bello did this year). We need Pivetta's reliability with a better pitcher.

 

I think we need 3 solid pitchers in the 1.5 to 2.5 slot range of effectiveness, but seriously, look at how bad this year went. If we had just added 2 SP'ers who gave us a 4.10 ERA and 180 IP, we'd probably still be in the playoff hunt, or just very recently eliminated.

 

I'd love to get and ace and two guys like Pivetta, but a little better.

[Randy Red Sox]

I think if they only have #3 starters, it gets them just good enough. They really need to go all in on a guy that can lead the staff.

 

Yamamoto

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think we need 3 solid pitchers in the 1.5 to 2.5 slot range of effectiveness, but seriously, look at how bad this year went. If we had just added 2 SP'ers who gave us a 4.10 ERA and 180 IP, we'd probably still be in the playoff hunt, or just very recently eliminated.

 

I'd love to get and ace and two guys like Pivetta, but a little better.

 

Nick Pivetta -- the best trade acquisition of the Chaim Bloom Era... #5 starter and swingman, able to bulk up after openers, or close out playoff Ws.

 

Pivetta is about it, with 7.5 WAR in Boston since 2020. Verdugo leads all guys Bloom traded for, with 8.3 WAR.

 

For those in LA keeping score, Mookie also has 8.3 WAR... this year.

[sk7326]

Nick Pivetta -- the best trade acquisition of the Chaim Bloom Era... #5 starter and swingman, able to bulk up after openers, or close out playoff Ws.

 

Pivetta is about it, with 7.5 WAR in Boston since 2020. Verdugo leads all guys Bloom traded for, with 8.3 WAR.

 

For those in LA keeping score, Mookie also has 8.3 WAR... this year.

 

So you're saying the Mookie trade was ... bad? I did not know that.

 

Pivetta but a bit better would be about a 3 win starter ... and if we had a couple of 3 win starters, this team would have been alive for a postseason bid most likely.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So you're saying the Mookie trade was ... bad? I did not know that.

 

 

Maybe for LA -- Verdugo and Wong have 10.9 combined WAR this season, which beats Mookie's 8.3. That's a WAR profit, for only 12 years of Betts.

 

Man, the Dodgers are stuck with Mookie.

[moonslav59]

Nick Pivetta -- the best trade acquisition of the Chaim Bloom Era... #5 starter and swingman, able to bulk up after openers, or close out playoff Ws.

 

Pivetta is about it, with 7.5 WAR in Boston since 2020. Verdugo leads all guys Bloom traded for, with 8.3 WAR.

 

For those in LA keeping score, Mookie also has 8.3 WAR... this year.

 

Some others may pass Verdugo and Pivetta before all careers are over:

 

Current bWARs w BOS:

2.6 Wong

1.7 Wink (2.0 in '23)

0.7 Abreu (in just about 1 month)