A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

The $300M was reported, long ago. Why wait so long to specifically deny that amount?

 

I'm not saying Betts is lying. I just wonder.

 

That's a fair question, and I've thought about it.

 

It all depends what you think of Mookie as a person, when it comes down to it. To me he's been nothing but class in his comments about his time in Boston, and in general he has avoided talking about how it went down altogether. I think he's smart in a PR way. He knows no good can come of it. But on this trip back to Boston, he couldn't avoid being asked questions about it. And for whatever reason he decided to address that fact point as part of his message that he never wanted to leave Boston. Maybe that number being out there bothered him because it suggested he had played hardball. I'm just speculating on a lot of this, of course. But it would be strange of him to deny that number if they did in fact offer him that, because there would be multiple people who would know. Actually, Mookie basically invited the press to talk to Bloom about it, and Bloom would likely know, huh?

[Nick]

77-83 A Realistic View of 2023: Part II.

 

Shouldn't we retire this thread after tomorrow's game? We will get the final Realist View of 2023 Season.

[notin]

That's a fair question, and I've thought about it.

 

It all depends what you think of Mookie as a person, when it comes down to it. To me he's been nothing but class in his comments about his time in Boston, and in general he has avoided talking about how it went down altogether. I think he's smart in a PR way. He knows no good can come of it. But on this trip back to Boston, he couldn't avoid being asked questions about it. And for whatever reason he decided to address that fact point as part of his message that he never wanted to leave Boston. Maybe that number being out there bothered him because it suggested he had played hardball. I'm just speculating on a lot of this, of course. But it would be strange of him to deny that number if they did in fact offer him that, because there would be multiple people who would know. Actually, Mookie basically invited the press to talk to Bloom about it, and Bloom would likely know, huh?

 

Or … none of us actually know Mookie. And maybe he also sees himself as a brand and doesn’t want to tarnish his image by saying it was so about money.

 

The thing is though, to some people, we get the money angle. That’s why these hits have agents. No one ever hired an agent to get a hometown discount.

 

 

Last ti e you posited “why would Mookie lie?” The same reason the Sox FO would - PR. But most fans tend to side with the players over the front office no matter what, because that’s who we’re fans of. Not like anyone ever bought a Cherington jersey

[moonslav59]

That's a fair question, and I've thought about it.

 

It all depends what you think of Mookie as a person, when it comes down to it. To me he's been nothing but class in his comments about his time in Boston, and in general he has avoided talking about how it went down altogether. I think he's smart in a PR way. He knows no good can come of it. But on this trip back to Boston, he couldn't avoid being asked questions about it. And for whatever reason he decided to address that fact point as part of his message that he never wanted to leave Boston. Maybe that number being out there bothered him because it suggested he had played hardball. I'm just speculating on a lot of this, of course. But it would be strange of him to deny that number if they did in fact offer him that, because there would be multiple people who would know. Actually, Mookie basically invited the press to talk to Bloom about it, and Bloom would likely know, huh?

 

Like I said, maybe it wasn't a formal offer, so nobody is lying, because the amount was "floated."

[moonslav59]

77-83 A Realistic View of 2023: Part II.

 

Shouldn't we retire this thread after tomorrow's game? We will get the final Realist View of 2023 Season.

 

It was a disappointing season, for sure.

[moonslav59]

Young Player Current OPS

.862 Abreu 24

.857 Casas 23

.851 Devers 26

.828 Duran 26

.762 EValdez 24

.746 Dugo 27

.698 Urias 26

.682 Rafaela 22

.680 Wong 27

 

Young Pitcher ERAs

2.98 Winckowski 25

3.86 Kelly 28

4.04 Crawford 27

4.24 Bello 24

4.91 Murphy 25

5.15 Whitlock 27

5.31 Houck 27

6.26 Walter 26

6.55 Robertson 24

 

Edited October 1, 2023 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

I don't really know what opinion has to do with the question. This is about facts. Who first reported the $300 million offer? Who was the original source of the information? It's all pretty murky. The veracity of the number seems to have been largely supported by Mookie not denying it back then. It puzzles me why he would now overtly lie about it. He could easily have brushed it off by saying they just couldn't reach an agreement. But he made a point of denying the $300 million.

 

So I've determined that the original source of the $300 million offer story was Lou Merloni.

 

Lou is a pretty outspoken guy, so maybe he will have more to say about Mookie's denial at some point.

[notin]

So I've determined that the original source of the $300 million offer story was Lou Merloni.

 

Lou is a pretty outspoken guy, so maybe he will have more to say about Mookie's denial at some point.

 

Out of curiosity, does Merloni reveal his source? Since he was very likely not involved in the negotiation…

[Bellhorn04]

Out of curiosity, does Merloni reveal his source? Since he was very likely not involved in the negotiation…

 

I've read nothing about where he got the information. My guess is he got it from someone in the organization who spoke "on condition of anonymity".

[moonslav59]

Out of curiosity, does Merloni reveal his source? Since he was very likely not involved in the negotiation…

 

I also wonder, if all the later reports were just relaying the Merloni report, or if a separate source(s) were found.

[Bellhorn04]

I also wonder, if all the later reports were just relaying the Merloni report, or if a separate source(s) were found.

 

Merloni seems to be a go-to guy for this stuff.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I also wonder, if all the later reports were just relaying the Merloni report, or if a separate source(s) were found.

 

No, I heard him say on radio. But that doesn't mean his source was right.

[moonslav59]

No, I heard him say on radio. But that doesn't mean his source was right.

 

My point was about whether later reports were just using Merloni's reporting or if other sources confirmed what he said. If other sources were found, I'd tend to believe it more.

[moonslav59]

Merloni seems to be a go-to guy for this stuff.

 

I think he is pretty credible and has no reason to be biased, whereas Betts has reason to stretch the facts.

 

My guess is a $300M statement was made from the club- maybe not a firm offer, but maybe just a verbal "ballpark figure" floated to the Betts agents. That would cover the Betts statement that "no $300M offer was made," but also not make Merloni's source out to be untrue, as well.

 

We may never know, for sure, and it's a pretty crucial point in determining, if we low-balled or "disrespected" Betts or not.

 

As of now, I lean towards the idea that the Betts people knew the Sox were prepared to offer $300M and the Betts people said that's not enough, and the talks ended. That's the simple version that kinda fits the narrative of all reports.

[Nick]

Is there a stat for relievers that show runners inherited, runners scored?

 

My reason for asking is especially during last couple of months, it appears (eye test) Winckowski has not done a very good job when he comes in. Damn the ERA. Inheriting 3 runners and all of them scoring has no impact on his ERA but it certainly doesn't qualify as getting the job done.

 

Just curious.

[Nick]

I think he is pretty credible and has no reason to be biased, whereas Betts has reason to stretch the facts.

 

My guess is a $300M statement was made from the club- maybe not a firm offer, but maybe just a verbal "ballpark figure" floated to the Betts agents. That would cover the Betts statement that "no $300M offer was made," but also not make Merloni's source out to be untrue, as well.

 

We may never know, for sure, and it's a pretty crucial point in determining, if we low-balled or "disrespected" Betts or not.

 

As of now, I lean towards the idea that the Betts people knew the Sox were prepared to offer $300M and the Betts people said that's not enough, and the talks ended. That's the simple version that kinda fits the narrative of all reports.

 

He wanted to leave and I can't blame him for going to the Dodgers. That's my storyline.

[moonslav59]

Is there a stat for relievers that show runners inherited, runners scored?

 

My reason for asking is especially during last couple of months, it appears (eye test) Winckowski has not done a very good job when he comes in. Damn the ERA. Inheriting 3 runners and all of them scoring has no impact on his ERA but it certainly doesn't qualify as getting the job done.

 

Just curious.

 

Yes.

 

Go to baseball reference.

Click on BOS

Click on Pitching, then Detailed Stats

Scroll down to Team Relief Pitching and it gives IR, IRS (IS) and IS%.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2023-pitching.shtml

 

It also gives the league average (32%)

 

7% Martin

13% Bernardino

17% Jansen

20% Murphy

 

Below average:

33% Brasier

36% Jacques

40% Pivetta

44% Wink

50% Schreiber & Llovera

57% Bleier

 

Not enough PAs Against to qualify:

0% Crawford, Joely, Sherriff, Weiss

18% Garza

33% Barraclough, Walter

67% Kelly

100% Robertson

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

He wanted to leave and I can't blame him for going to the Dodgers. That's my storyline.

 

Sounds about right, but he doesn't want to piss of Sox fans.

 

I do wonder, if we offered the same or $1M more than whatever LAD's top offer might have been, would he have signed with us.

[Bellhorn04]

Sounds about right, but he doesn't want to piss of Sox fans.

 

Why, what exactly is the evidence he wanted to leave? I see none. Hunches are fine, but that's all they are.

 

I don't think there's any evidence Betts wanted to leave or that he didn't want to leave.

 

Juan Soto is a different story. He reportedly turned down a $440 million offer, and that report was never disputed. So yeah, he wanted to leave.

[moonslav59]

Why, what exactly is the evidence he wanted to leave? I see none. Hunches are fine, but that's all they are.

 

I don't think there's any evidence Betts wanted to leave or that he didn't want to leave.

 

Juan Soto is a different story. He reportedly turned down a $440 million offer, and that report was never disputed. So yeah, he wanted to leave.

 

The evidence is he did not accept the offer to stay

[dgalehouse]

I think he is pretty credible and has no reason to be biased, whereas Betts has reason to stretch the facts.

 

My guess is a $300M statement was made from the club- maybe not a firm offer, but maybe just a verbal "ballpark figure" floated to the Betts agents. That would cover the Betts statement that "no $300M offer was made," but also not make Merloni's source out to be untrue, as well.

 

We may never know, for sure, and it's a pretty crucial point in determining, if we low-balled or "disrespected" Betts or not.

 

As of now, I lean towards the idea that the Betts people knew the Sox were prepared to offer $300M and the Betts people said that's not enough, and the talks ended. That's the simple version that kinda fits the narrative of all reports.

 

Merloni works for NESN. FSG owns NESN. He absolutely has a reason to be biased.

[moonslav59]

Merloni works for NESN. FSG owns NESN. He absolutely has a reason to be biased.

 

I don’t see it that way. He seems to be a straight shooter who has been critical of Sox management enough times to convince me, he’s not lying.

 

I’ve presented a view where nobody lied. That’s my position.

[Nick]

Why, what exactly is the evidence he wanted to leave? I see none. Hunches are fine, but that's all they are.

 

I don't think there's any evidence Betts wanted to leave or that he didn't want to leave.

 

Juan Soto is a different story. He reportedly turned down a $440 million offer, and that report was never disputed. So yeah, he wanted to leave.

 

"He wanted to leave and I can't blame him for going to the Dodgers. That's my storyline."

 

Is this the court of the law? Geez, some people are uptight.

[Bellhorn04]

Like I said, maybe it wasn't a formal offer, so nobody is lying, because the amount was "floated."

 

One other possibility is the offer was something like this:

 

9 years for $270 mill guaranteed

Plus vesting option or team option for additional year at $30 mill

[Bellhorn04]

The evidence is he did not accept the offer to stay

 

To me, even if what he turned down was $300 mill, that's not evidence he wanted to leave, it's evidence he wanted more money. And obviously he did get more, and no one was really surprised he got $365 mill.

[Bellhorn04]

"He wanted to leave and I can't blame him for going to the Dodgers. That's my storyline."

 

Is this the court of the law? Geez, some people are uptight.

 

I didn't even ask you, I asked moon. moon and I go back and forth on stuff like this all the time, and nobody gets uptight.

[notin]

To me, even if what he turned down was $300 mill, that's not evidence he wanted to leave, it's evidence he wanted more money. And obviously he did get more, and no one was really surprised he got $365 mill.

 

 

I recall a lot of buzz about him wanting to try free agency. That night has Dave been the case even after being dealt to LA. He didn’t sign that extension until after MLB started cancelling games…

[notin]

Merloni works for NESN. FSG owns NESN. He absolutely has a reason to be biased.

 

And yet he rips them all the time..

[Bellhorn04]

I recall a lot of buzz about him wanting to try free agency.

 

Of course. But IMO it was mainly inferred from 2 things: 1) the fact of the years going by with no extension; 2) the fact that Mookie was quiet on the matter.

 

People can believe a lot of things with no evidence at all. And we can see that even now, with Mookie insisting he wanted to stay and people not believing him.

[dgalehouse]

Everyone can form their own opinions and imagine scenarios that support those opinions. And that's okay. Personally, I would tend to believe Mookie ahead of something that management may have leaked to Lou Merloni. By the way, do they call it " auto correct " because you always have to auto correct it ?