A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

It's my opinion- just like yours. Do I have to write IMO, before every post?

 

If you think DD could have won in 2020 by slashing the budget as much as Bloom had to, fine. That might be your opinion.

 

I do not "know" DD would have failed in 2020, but my opinion is that any GM would have.

 

I'm not si sure many would have succeeded in '21.

 

2020 should be ignored.

 

Bloom did a good job in 2021. A lot of the players were obviously left over from DD.

[moonslav59]

I guess I'll have to keep saying this, but the 2019 team was not that bad, and the 2021 team also did OK.

 

The 2019 was better, on paper, than its record and maybe the 2021 was worse, on paper- maybe not.

 

The fact is the spending and trading away prospect philosophy changes after the 2018 deadline. DD was still in charge for 1.5 years after that deadline. Some big extensions were allowed to be handed out, but basically no new spending or trades of prospects occurred or were allowed, and the results showed that shift had begun.

 

It only got much worse in 2020, and the missed seasons by Sale and ERod made it impossible (IMO) for any GM to win in 2020.

 

With less than $20M of winter spending prior to 2021, one could consider 2021 a masterpiece, an outlier, or I suppose a position that it was still a remnant of the 2019 team.

 

Personally, I doubt DD would have put up with the demands Bloom was handed. he'd have pushed back or quit, IMO.

 

Just my opinion. No, I do do think I know this for sure. It's an opinion. (There, did I get that aspect of my post across?)

[moonslav59]

2020 should be ignored.

 

Bloom did a good job in 2021. A lot of the players were obviously left over from DD.

 

I don't think we can "ignore" how DD would have handled being told he could not replace contract also had to trade some vets to slash the budget. It's not so much about what any GM could have done better in 2020, but about the last effects of that massive slash to the budget, along with an apparent directive to not trade top prospects to improve the current team

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think we can "ignore" how DD would have handled being told he could not replace contract also had to trade some vets to slash the budget. It's not so much about what any GM could have done better in 2020, but about the last effects of that massive slash to the budget, along with an apparent directive to not trade top prospects to improve the current team

 

Things do get silly whenever we jump in the Wayback Machine, but...

 

What I'm arguing is that it was ownership who made all these mistakes-cutting loose Betts and Dombrowski AND slashing payroll. So in the Wayback Machine they would have kept Dombrowski AND NOT slashed payroll.

[moonslav59]

Things do get silly whenever we jump in the Wayback Machine, but...

 

What I'm arguing is that it was ownership who made all these mistakes-cutting loose Betts and Dombrowski AND slashing payroll. So in the Wayback Machine they would have kept Dombrowski AND NOT slashed payroll.

 

My point is, that if you change the slashing of the budget thing, yes, by all means, keep DD around, but I also think Bloom's record would likely have been much better, too, without the mid 2018-pre 2022 budget slash, the 3 extensions (Sale, Nate & Bogey) notwithstanding.

 

One thing to point out: Bloom was never given a choice on who to extend: betts, Bogey, Sale and or Nate. DD was, and it can be viewed as a mistake in choice, if you believe Betts would have accepted a larger offer.

[Bellhorn04]

My point is, that if you change the slashing of the budget thing, yes, by all means, keep DD around, but I also think Bloom's record would likely have been much better, too, without the mid 2018-pre 2022 budget slash, the 3 extensions (Sale, Nate & Bogey) notwithstanding.

 

One thing to point out: Bloom was never given a choice on who to extend: betts, Bogey, Sale and or Nate. DD was, and it can be viewed as a mistake in choice, if you believe Betts would have accepted a larger offer.

 

I believe Henry lowballed Betts all along. And it's worth noting that the recent statements by Betts clearly suggest that he did get a final offer after Bloom took over. He even said, if you want to know more about contract negotiations, you'll have to talk to Chaim about it.

[Bellhorn04]

My point is, that if you change the slashing of the budget thing, yes, by all means, keep DD around, but I also think Bloom's record would likely have been much better, too, without the mid 2018-pre 2022 budget slash, the 3 extensions (Sale, Nate & Bogey) notwithstanding.

 

That's a fair point. Like I say, I'm putting all the blame on ownership. Unfortunately, under the circumstances it's hard to judge Bloom at all, because they gave him such a s***** hand to work with.

[moonslav59]

I believe Henry lowballed Betts all along. And it's worth noting that the recent statements by Betts clearly suggest that he did get a final offer after Bloom took over. He even said, if you want to know more about contract negotiations, you'll have to talk to Chaim about it.

 

Yes, but the problem was compounded by the fact that Sale, Bogey and Nate were already extended, and it appears JH was never going to budge on the new direction of the budget. I suppose, maybe JH would have allowed us to trade Sale, Bogey or Nate, so we could afford Betts, but then there was the Price or half-Price contract to unload.

 

It was a cluster that, IMO, no GM could have handled very well.

 

Better than Bloom, sure.

 

Would DD have stood for all of what happened after 2019? Word was, there was a big falling out over what happened between summer 2018 and summer 2019, and that was just the tip of the philosophical change made at the top.

[moonslav59]

That's a fair point. Like I say, I'm putting all the blame on ownership. Unfortunately, under the circumstances it's hard to judge Bloom at all, because they gave him such a s***** hand to work with.

 

I do think Bloom should have done better, especially after 2021, but it wasn't until the Story signing in March '22 that he really had the ability to make seriously impactful additions. He swung and missed on immediate returns from his biggest additions, and that doomed his tenure with the Sox.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, but the problem was compounded by the fact that Sale, Bogey and Nate were already extended, and it appears JH was never going to budge on the new direction of the budget. I suppose, maybe JH would have allowed us to trade Sale, Bogey or Nate, so we could afford Betts, but then there was the Price or half-Price contract to unload.

 

It was a cluster that, IMO, no GM could have handled very well.

 

Better than Bloom, sure.

 

Would DD have stood for all of what happened after 2019? Word was, there was a big falling out over what happened between summer 2018 and summer 2019, and that was just the tip of the philosophical change made at the top.

 

Like I say, I think it's all on ownership.

[Bellhorn04]

I do think Bloom should have done better, especially after 2021, but it wasn't until the Story signing in March '22 that he really had the ability to make seriously impactful additions. He swung and missed on immediate returns from his biggest additions, and that doomed his tenure with the Sox.

 

We're not sure exactly what doomed him. Probably a combination of things. The knock on him being indecisive does seem very credible.

[mvp 78]

I do think Bloom should have done better, especially after 2021, but it wasn't until the Story signing in March '22 that he really had the ability to make seriously impactful additions. He swung and missed on immediate returns from his biggest additions, and that doomed his tenure with the Sox.

 

He didn't have to wait until March to sign Story... Also, was Story the right signing?

[moonslav59]

We're not sure exactly what doomed him. Probably a combination of things. The knock on him being indecisive does seem very credible.

 

True, but if Story, Richards, Kluber and Yoshi (Kike II) did very well, I'm not sure he'd be "doomed."

[Bellhorn04]

True, but if Story, Richards, Kluber and Yoshi (Kike II) did very well, I'm not sure he'd be "doomed."

 

Like I said, a combination of things.

[moonslav59]

He didn't have to wait until March to sign Story... Also, was Story the right signing?

 

I'm not sure about not needing to wait, but certainly he might have had the ability to spend large before March. (Part of me still thinks the Story signing was an act of desperation to try and appease the angry fans.

 

Certainly, the Story signing can be viewed as "not the right signing," especially in hindsight.

 

If we knew Bogey was a goner, it made sense in foresight. The injury might or might not have been foreseeable.

 

[moonslav59]

Like I said, a combination of things.

 

Agreed, but if just one went right, like all his major signings working out, maybe he didn't need a combo.

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure about not needing to wait, but certainly he might have had the ability to spend large before March. (Part of me still thinks the Story signing was an act of desperation to try and appease the angry fans.

 

Certainly, the Story signing can be viewed as "not the right signing," especially in hindsight.

 

If we knew Bogey was a goner, it made sense in foresight. The injury might or might not have been foreseeable.

 

 

Appeasing the fans? The Story signing came out of LF. The Sox had just come off an ALCS run. I don't think much appeasement needed to be done at that point. Story was the buy low replacement for Xander since they figured they weren't going to be able to re-sign him.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed, but if just one went right, like all his major signings working out, maybe he didn't need a combo.

 

And if Pablo and Hanley and Rusney kicked butt, maybe Cherington would still be CBO.

[Old Red]

Appeasing the fans? The Story signing came out of LF. The Sox had just come off an ALCS run. I don't think much appeasement needed to be done at that point. Story was the buy low replacement for Xander since they figured they weren't going to be able to re-sign him.

True the Sox were coming off the ALCS run, but had made the JBJ trade, and also the lowball offers to Bogey, and Raffy, so things weren’t as rosy as they could have, or should have been.

[moonslav59]

Appeasing the fans? The Story signing came out of LF. The Sox had just come off an ALCS run. I don't think much appeasement needed to be done at that point. Story was the buy low replacement for Xander since they figured they weren't going to be able to re-sign him.

 

Yes, it came out of LF. Agreed.

 

I do think the fans were antsy about so few big names being added to the roster since Nate in the summer of '18.

 

Just my opinion.

[moonslav59]

And if Pablo and Hanley and Rusney kicked butt, maybe Cherington would still be CBO.

 

Yes, I said that, too.

 

Has HRam and Porcello has the seasons they had the year after he left in his final season, he might have lasted another year, or two.

 

A lot has to do with timing.

 

Had he timed the Springs addition to the year he "took off...."

 

Had he signed Martin Perez a year later...

 

I'm sure all GMs have cases like this. A lot of luck and timing goes into success and failure. That's kind of my point, but ultimately, it's all the GMs fault.

[moonslav59]

True the Sox were coming off the ALCS run, but had made the JBJ trade, and also the lowball offers to Bogey, and Raffy, so things weren’t as rosy as they could have, or should have been.

 

I remember a lot of posters being pissed that we were "sitting on our hands" and watching FAs were were interested in, sign elsewhere.

[Old Red]

I remember a lot of posters being pissed that we were "sitting on our hands" and watching FAs were were interested in, sign elsewhere.

 

I agree with you that Story was signed to calm the fans.

[notin]

True the Sox were coming off the ALCS run, but had made the JBJ trade, and also the lowball offers to Bogey, and Raffy, so things weren’t as rosy as they could have, or should have been.

 

Why was the original offer to Devers a lowball offer? Matt Olson (6.4 fWAR) accepted a similar offer and has severely outperformed Devers (3.2 fWAR).

 

And please don’t use the “but Devers is a third baseman” excuse. He’s a hitter who plays third base, and not very well.

 

Some of these Sox players might be a little too greedy…

Edited September 27, 2023 by notin
Oops.. put Betts not Devers

[mvp 78]

The views of overly obsessed posters don't reflect the majority of fans. If Old Red and moon are agreeing, I'm definitely feeling good about my position that the Story signing had nothing to do with appeasing fans.

[Old Red]

The views of overly obsessed posters don't reflect the majority of fans. If Old Red and moon are agreeing, I'm definitely feeling good about my position that the Story signing had nothing to do with appeasing fans.

 

I think it was a mutual need for both sides. Story was running out of options, and the contract was too good to pass up. One report said he didn’t really want to come to Boston. He fired his agent shortly after he did he was so grateful.

[notin]

The views of overly obsessed posters don't reflect the majority of fans. If Old Red and moon are agreeing, I'm definitely feeling good about my position that the Story signing had nothing to do with appeasing fans.

 

 

At best it showed a previously unseen willingness to spend…

[Old Red]

Why was the original offer to Betts a lowball offer? Matt Olson (6.4 fWAR) accepted a similar offer and has severely outperformed Devers (3.2 fWAR).

 

And please don’t use the “but Devers is a third baseman” excuse. He’s a hitter who plays third base, and not very well.

 

Some of these Sox players might be a little too greedy…

Why was the original offer to Bogey a lowball offer? That’s been gone over TMTC times already. I know you thought Bogey’s side should have back with a counter.

[notin]

I think it was a mutual need for both sides. Story was running out of options, and the contract was too good to pass up. One report said he didn’t really want to come to Boston. He fired his agent shortly after he did he was so grateful.

 

That sounds silly.

 

It’s not his agent’s fault he accepted the deal, and not his agent’s fault whatever team he wanted to play for wasn’t interested…

[notin]

Why was the original offer to Bogey a lowball offer? That’s been gone over TMTC times already. I know you thought Bogey’s side should have back with a counter.

 

I do wonder why no counter. Unlike you, I don’t speak for the players.

 

But you really can’t call the original offer to Devers a lowball when other equal or better players are accepting it…