A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[notin]

All efforts at humor are appreciated. But we all have a long way to go to match 5Gloves for obliqueness, punning and general savagery.

 

Ebenezer Scrooge imagery is not savage enough for general miserdom?!??

[Bellhorn04]

Ebenezer Scrooge imagery is not savage enough for general miserdom?!??

 

No. The Scrooge story had a Hollywood ending. And who doesn't love Uncle Scrooge?

[moonslav59]

Going cheaper. Henry wants payroll down under $500K. Reportedly he is in talks with Ebenezer Scrooge to run the front office, as long as the season ends before the holidays and there’s no chance of him being visited by the Ghosts of Free Agents Past.

 

 

(This is my 5Gold impression. Scale of 1 to 10?)

 

Nobody can tough GG. Nice try.

[Maxbialystock]

Well, stories plural.

 

I know there is a lot of copycat journalism out there, but that offer was widely reported. At least the money was, not the years.

 

The thing is, Mookie had every right to reject it. He had every right to try to rest free agency (which he reportedly Also wanted to do). And sure that type of attitude can make a player look motivated. solely by finances, but know what else makes a player look financially driven? Accepting a $300mill contract…

 

I don't question Jim Rice's claim that Mookie said Boston was where he wanted to be.

 

However, Mookie also had an agent who must have told him how freaking valuable he was and is and that the Dodgers were a pretty good landing place with the largest attendance in MLB, etc. Plus which team has made it to the playoffs every season, 2019 to the present? I do not believe Mookie would have signed with the Sox for $300M in lieu of the Dodgers for $365M.

 

In John Henry's defense, I believe he recognized that, to retain Mookie, he was going to have to get in an unwinnable bidding war with the Dodgers.

 

As for Bogey, I frankly didn't think he was worth as much as he got from the Padres. As things turned out, however, Bogey at SS this year would have been huge for the Sox and probably enough to get them into the postseason.

 

Lester, I agree, was a bad decision by the Sox.

[moonslav59]

The $300 mill, if it was actually offered, was below market at the time by at least $50 mill, I'd say.

 

Heck, not too long after that your guy Soto turned down $440 mill.

 

I was suggesting $400M/12, but was mostly laughed at. If the offer was $300M/9, then it was about "market value."

 

The other thing we need to know is was this even hinted to be "the final offer?"

 

If our last offer was, indeed, $300M/10, then I would not compare that to the Lester/Bogey "lowball Johnny" offers. Even if they said, "take it or leave it," as a final offer, I think the offer was close enough to be viewed as "fair." I find it hard to believe they wouldn't say, "We can go a little higher, add some incentives or make it 9 years not 10," but maybe they did not go that way.

[Bellhorn04]

I was suggesting $400M/12, but was mostly laughed at. If the offer was $300M/9, then it was about "market value."

 

No, I don't think so, because a player in Betts's situation is looking at it as the final contract of their career, so what they're focused on is the total dollar value, not the AAV.

 

Betts was expecting something north of $350 mill, and that's what he got.

[moonslav59]

After Pivetta's start to the 2023 season got him demoted to the pen, who would have thought he'd come back to lead our team in ERA (85+ IP)?

 

4.04 Pivetta (143 IP) only 16 GS

4.23 Crawford (123) 22 GS (He pitches, tonight, so his standing may change, some.)

4.24 Bello (157) 28 GS (3.74 ERA first 14 GS/5.49 last 14)

4.30 Sale (103) 20 GS (had a 3.16 ERA in his last 15 GS)

4.50 Paxton (96) 19 GS (was at 3.85 in first 15 GS)

5.31 Houck (100) 20 GS

 

[moonslav59]

No, I don't think so, because a player in Betts's situation is looking at it as the final contract of their career, so what they're focused on is the total dollar value, not the AAV.

 

Betts was expecting something north of $350 mill, and that's what he got.

 

$300/9 is pretty close to $350M/10, and why would this be his "final contract?" He'd be 35 after that 9 year deal.

 

I just don't see $300M/10 as anywhere near being lowball, or at least not close to the Lester or Bogey offers. (reported in all cases)

 

[notin]

No. The Scrooge story had a Hollywood ending. And who doesn't love Uncle Scrooge?

 

Only after the holidays that I intentionally omitted.

 

Would Montgomery Burns have worked better?

[Bellhorn04]

$300/9 is pretty close to $350M/10, and why would this be his "final contract?" He'd be 35 after that 9 year deal.

 

I just don't see $300M/10 as anywhere near being lowball, or at least not close to the Lester or Bogey offers. (reported in all cases)

 

 

Well, we can go on and on about it, but the bottom line is the Sox don't appear to have made an aggressive effort, and they tossed in the towel and traded him, giving up that last year in which they could have negotiated.

 

I'll always believe ownership could have gotten this done pretty easily, but they decided to draw one of their lines in the sand and move on.

[Bellhorn04]

$300/9 is pretty close to $350M/10, and why would this be his "final contract?" He'd be 35 after that 9 year deal.

 

Also, he'd be 37, not 35, at the end of the 2029 season, which would be the end of the 9th year if you're talking about an extension on top of his final arb year in 2020.

Edited September 30, 2023 by Bellhorn04

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Only after the holidays that I intentionally omitted.

 

Would Montgomery Burns have worked better?

 

We can hear it now... Mr. Burns croning: "I'm the Number One fan of the man from Tennessee..."

[Maxbialystock]

Well, we can go on and on about it, but the bottom line is the Sox don't appear to have made an aggressive effort, and they tossed in the towel and traded him, giving up that last year in which they could have negotiated.

 

I'll always believe ownership could have gotten this done pretty easily, but they decided to draw one of their lines in the sand and move on.

 

You always make sense, but I have to disagree on Mookie because I think the Dodgers were willing to go to at least $400M to get him. The year was 2019, and the Sox pricey pitching had collapsed. When the Sox cut the deal with the Dodgers, their record was 59-51 and they were in the middle of a freaking 8 game losing streak.

 

Since then, as we now know, the Sox pitching has continued to struggle because JH was tired of paying big bucks--long-term--for starters like Price and Sale. And the great irony is that that's exactly what he was going to have to do--spend even bigger sums for more starters--while also continuing to pay Price and Sale. Thus the hiring of Bloom and the effort to rebuild the farm system, etc.

 

Do I think Mookie would have made a difference if he had stayed with the Sox? Absolutely. But the pitching would still stink unless, of course, the Sox payroll went north of $350M to bring in some more gold standard starters like Price and Sale.

 

With Mookie and Bogey on the current Sox team, I believe the 2023 Sox would make it to the postseason, but no way, no how would they win the AL East unless, as I say, JH also spent major dollars to fix the rotation.

[moonslav59]

Well, we can go on and on about it, but the bottom line is the Sox don't appear to have made an aggressive effort, and they tossed in the towel and traded him, giving up that last year in which they could have negotiated.

 

I'll always believe ownership could have gotten this done pretty easily, but they decided to draw one of their lines in the sand and move on.

 

I don't disagree. I just don't see it as a "lowball," and not nearly to the level of Bogey and Letser, if it was.

[moonslav59]

We can hear it now... Mr. Burns croning: "I'm the Number One fan of the man from Tennessee..."

 

...and "the man" is not Elvis.

[notin]

...and "the man" is not Elvis.

 

Nope. Al Gore…

[moonslav59]

Nope. Al Gore…

 

Senior, maybe.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't disagree. I just don't see it as a "lowball," and not nearly to the level of Bogey and Letser, if it was.

 

You're right that IF they offered him $300 mill, that would not be a lowball offer.

 

Mookie has really thrown a twist into things by insisting that the offer was not that high. I don't understand why he would lie about it. Nor do I understand why, if he was lying, no one has refuted him. It's become one of those conspiracy-ish things.

 

As I say, I find it credible that Henry would make an offer below $300 mill, based on his offers to Lester and Bogey.

[notin]

You're right that IF they offered him $300 mill, that would not be a lowball offer.

 

Mookie has really thrown a twist into things by insisting that the offer was not that high. I don't understand why he would lie about it. Nor do I understand why, if he was lying, no one has refuted him. It's become one of those conspiracy-ish things.

 

As I say, I find it credible that Henry would make an offer below $300 mill, based on his offers to Lester and Bogey.

 

Bear in mind:

 

1. The Sox $300mill offer was reported by multiple sources, none of whom were Dombrowski.

2. The “no $300mill” story from one source

3. Players always lie and say stuff like the new team “has the best chance to win,” which coincidentally always is the team with the highest offer.

4. No Sox GM or CBO has ever used the press as a negotiation ploy..

[moonslav59]

You're right that IF they offered him $300 mill, that would not be a lowball offer.

 

Mookie has really thrown a twist into things by insisting that the offer was not that high. I don't understand why he would lie about it. Nor do I understand why, if he was lying, no one has refuted him. It's become one of those conspiracy-ish things.

 

As I say, I find it credible that Henry would make an offer below $300 mill, based on his offers to Lester and Bogey.

 

Maybe it was $295M/10, and nobody is lying.

[Bellhorn04]

Bear in mind:

 

1. The Sox $300mill offer was reported by multiple sources, none of whom were Dombrowski.

 

Couldn't it just be one source, repeated by others?

[notin]

Couldn't it just be one source, repeated by others?

 

There were undoubtedly repeats but who didn’t report it?

 

And when ever did Dombrowski lowball anyone?

[notin]

Maybe it was $295M/10, and nobody is lying.

 

Maybe it was $300mill but over 150 years. After all, the length was never disclosed…

[Bellhorn04]

There were undoubtedly repeats but who didn’t report it?

 

And when ever did Dombrowski lowball anyone?

 

If Dombrowki was the man setting the numbers, Betts would still be in a Red Sox uniform.

 

Here's the thing, though. Now that Mookie has come forth and denied the $300 mill, why wouldn't these same reliable sources be refuting him?

[moonslav59]

We had a bunch of really good half seasons from several SP'ers, this year.

 

Nobody put together a full season of consistent good pitching.

 

Bello

3.15 ERA in 15 GS from 4/29 to 7/26

 

Sale

3.16 in 15 GS from 4/30 to 9/28

 

Pivetta

3.22 in 8GS & 13 long relief outings from 6/18 to 9/29

 

Paxton

3.36 in 15 GS from 5/12 to 8/10

 

Crawford

4.19 in 16 GS 6/20 to 9/18

 

Just enough to get our hopes up, briefly- some of us "losers" anyway.

[moonslav59]

Maybe it was $300mill but over 150 years. After all, the length was never disclosed…

 

Well, Betts said he never saw a $300M offer, so this would have been one.

 

Would $299M/10 have been "lowballing?"

[notin]

If Dombrowki was the man setting the numbers, Betts would still be in a Red Sox uniform.

 

Here's the thing, though. Now that Mookie has come forth and denied the $300 mill, why wouldn't these same reliable sources be refuting him?

 

They’re just reporters telling the stories they’re told; they don’t offer opinion.

 

I’ve disparaged Dombrowski plenty of times. But I do think he made that offer to Betts. If he didn’t and then spent $265mill on Sale and Bogaerts, maybe I haven’t been harsh enough…

Edited September 30, 2023 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

They’re just reporters telling the stories they’re told; they don’t offer opinion…

 

I don't really know what opinion has to do with the question. This is about facts. Who first reported the $300 million offer? Who was the original source of the information? It's all pretty murky. The veracity of the number seems to have been largely supported by Mookie not denying it back then. It puzzles me why he would now overtly lie about it. He could easily have brushed it off by saying they just couldn't reach an agreement. But he made a point of denying the $300 million.

[moonslav59]

I don't really know what opinion has to do with the question. This is about facts. Who first reported the $300 million offer? Who was the original source of the information? It's all pretty murky. The veracity of the number seems to have been largely supported by Mookie not denying it back then. It puzzles me why he would now overtly lie about it. He could easily have brushed it off by saying they just couldn't reach an agreement. But he made a point of denying the $300 million.

 

The $300M was reported, long ago. Why wait so long to specifically deny that amount?

 

I'm not saying Betts is lying. I just wonder.

 

There is a chance the $300M was never officially offered, so Betts is telling the truth, but it might have been "floated" as a starting point, and it never got farther than that. Does that change the narrative, much?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Maybe the Sox are mum because they someday envision bringing Mookie back -- in a trade they know will have to include Bauer and Urias -- for a millionth-round draft pick.