A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

I think his D is adequate. He led the team in assists this year by a huge margin--also in innings played in the field (on defense).

 

Sorry Max, but you are dead wrong about Raffy's D being "adequate."

 

He's not even close to being average.

 

I fully expected the Sox to keep him at 3B, because we have greater needs and can't spend on a new 3Bman. That's not a ringing endorsement of his defense.

 

I hope they give him a few reps at 1B, this winter and ST'ing and maybe 2024, if he looks okay there.

 

[notin]

Sorry Max, but you are dead wrong about Raffy's D being "adequate."

 

He's not even close to being average.

 

I fully expected the Sox to keep him at 3B, because we have greater needs and can't spend on a new 3Bman. That's not a ringing endorsement of his defense.

 

I hope they give him a few reps at 1B, this winter and ST'ing and maybe 2024, if he looks okay there.

 

 

If I was predicting, Devers is a lock for 3b. But on my wishlist, they upgrade the D and move him to first.

 

That’s not an endorsement of his defense either…

[Maxbialystock]

Sorry Max, but you are dead wrong about Raffy's D being "adequate."

 

He's not even close to being average.

 

I fully expected the Sox to keep him at 3B, because we have greater needs and can't spend on a new 3Bman. That's not a ringing endorsement of his defense.

 

I hope they give him a few reps at 1B, this winter and ST'ing and maybe 2024, if he looks okay there.

 

 

I didn't say average. I said adequate--his DWAR was -0.5, which is OK with me. Funny thing is, we are almost in concert because you also recognize the best choice for DH next year isn't Devers or Casas, but Yoshida.

 

What I do not want is for the Sox to go after a guy like Chapman, who's older and doesn't hit as well as Devers. They should should spend their money on starters and maybe a couple of good righty bats.

[Dipre]

Chapman is bad, and he should feel bad.

[notin]

I didn't say average. I said adequate--his DWAR was -0.5, which is OK with me. Funny thing is, we are almost in concert because you also recognize the best choice for DH next year isn't Devers or Casas, but Yoshida.

 

What I do not want is for the Sox to go after a guy like Chapman, who's older and doesn't hit as well as Devers. They should should spend their money on starters and maybe a couple of good righty bats.

 

They’ll hopefully as some starting pitching.

 

Yoshida is very likely the DH, but that doesn’t mean it’s the best move. Chapman would allow moving both Devers (-0.5) and Casas(-1.0). But if you like those obvious flaws.

 

As for right-handed bats, it will be interesting to see where. The OF might be predominantly left-handed, but S of today Duran, Verdugo, and Abreu are battling to join Rafaela in the final two spots. (Abreu likely starts the season Worcester.) 1b, 3b, DH, SS, and catcher are likely locked up. That leaves 2b.

 

So are the Sox cleaning out Duran to make way for, say, Teoscar Hernandez? Or Verdugo, and hoping one of Duran or Hernandez morphs into a capable RF?

 

And that’s just for one RHH bat…

[Old Red]

I did bring it up, but maybe it was when you were off in hiding.

 

The main reason I mentioned the "leadership" last year was because so many posters were going on and on about what great leaders Bogey, JD and Nate were, and maybe they are, but what good did it do? How do you see leadership working? (Only when you win?)

 

I didn't see many posters raving about great leadership, this year, even when we were winning, except for maybe Turner.

 

That was the point did the Red Sox have a leader this year?

[Dipre]

That was the point did the Red Sox have a leader this year?

 

They don't need a leader. They need starters who can get people out and can go past the 5th inning.

[Bellhorn04]

That was the point did the Red Sox have a leader this year?

 

Turner, maybe.

[moonslav59]

I didn't say average. I said adequate--his DWAR was -0.5, which is OK with me. Funny thing is, we are almost in concert because you also recognize the best choice for DH next year isn't Devers or Casas, but Yoshida.

 

What I do not want is for the Sox to go after a guy like Chapman, who's older and doesn't hit as well as Devers. They should should spend their money on starters and maybe a couple of good righty bats.

 

I said not close to average, and I see "adequate" as being close.

 

Part of the reason I want Yoshida at DH is not because he's a worse defender, but because we have 3 OF'ers who best spot is LF. We don't have a 3Bman to take Devers' place.

 

I'm not sure why you only use dWAR as the final value given on defense. B-R gives no reference to where -0.5 places among 3Bmen in MLB, anyway.

 

Here are some other numbers:

Worst in Outs Above Average (-9) and last over the last 4 years combined (-14)

2nd worst in DRS (-9) - He's in last place on DRS in the last 4 years combined.

4th worst in UZR/150 (-2.2) and 2nd worst in the last 4 years (-4.20)

 

So, dWAR says -0.5, this year, and that makes him "adequate?"

 

I'm not sure why you are going to the mat on this one.

 

I'm fine with the idea that defense doesn't matter as much as batting and pitching. I agree, but let's not sugarcoat how bad some of our defenders are and have been for years.

[moonslav59]

That was the point did the Red Sox have a leader this year?

 

What point?

 

I thought it was about us not talking about it, which we did.

 

We apparently had "leaders," last year and had the same record. What point are you making?

 

If winning is the only litmus test, which it seems to be for you, either we had no leaders or s***** ones, last year, and all the talk of those famous players being "leaders" was bull. (I don't believe that, because I look at context and not just Wins and Losses.)

 

So, did the Sox have leaders, this year?

 

Last year?

 

2021?

 

2018? (If yes, why weren't hey leaders in subsequent seasons?)

[moonslav59]

They don't need a leader. They need starters who can get people out and can go past the 5th inning.

 

Ding, ding, ding!

 

Leaders by example!

 

Work hard. Play well. Do well. Win, and all of a sudden you have team leadership.

 

Work hard. Do your best. Don't do well. We have no leadership.

[Bellhorn04]

If only the fools had this thought: "Forget about his offense, how in the hell are we going to replace Betts's defense for the next 10 years or so?"

[notin]

If only the fools had this thought: "Forget about his offense, how in the hell are we going to replace Betts's defense for the next 10 years or so?"

 

It should be a more valid concern. Losing Mookie’s glove wasn’t the biggest part of losing him, but that doesn’t mean it should be ignored…

[Bellhorn04]

It should be a more valid concern. Losing Mookie’s glove wasn’t the biggest part of losing him, but that doesn’t mean it should be ignored…

 

Complete players are a rare species. Fools!

[moonslav59]

There is not a single poster trying to claim defense is more important than batting or pitching. I'm not sure anyone thinks it's worth even half of either. (Speak up, if you do.)

 

I think many of want us to improve our defense without damaging the batting. Nobody is saying let's spend on defense not pitching, although improving the defense will improve the pitching.

 

IMO, our defense may improve from dead last to somewhere in the middle (12th to 18th) without signing or trading for anyone, as long as key players do not get hurt or suck so much on offense, they get benched.

 

1. Replace JT with Yoshida at DH.

2. Duran-Refsnyder (Abreu) in LF is a significant improvement in LF from 2023.

3. Story staying healthy at SS is a major improvement over 2023's SS.

4. Reyes at 2B could be slightly better than what we saw in 2023.

5. Rafaela & Abreu in CF should be a major improvement over Duran/Duvall in 2023.

6. I think it is reasonable to expect continued improvement on D from our catchers Wong and McGuire.

 

3B, 1B and RF should be about the same (maybe C and 2B stay about the same).

 

3 Better

2 same or better

3 about the same

0 worse

.

No money needed.

 

Now, losing JT and Duvall means losing some plus batting, so it could end up being a trade-off. If we bring back Duvall, and don't play him in CF much, then we get some offense back without hurting the defense. How do we replace JT's offense? Story improves the SS O? Reyes/Urias/EValdez adds some O at 2B? Casas improves? Yoshida at DH helps him bat better? Duran/Rafaela/Abreu improve? Wong & McGuire improve?

 

I don't think we spend much on offense, except maybe Duvall. We may have to cross our fingers on the O. I doubt we take notin's Chapman suggestion. Teoscar might be better than Dugo or Duran on O, but who knows? It is a drop on D.

 

Any other ideas? Trades?

 

 

[dannycater]

What did I miss? Did the Sox win the AL East?

[mvp 78]

They’ll hopefully as some starting pitching.

 

Yoshida is very likely the DH, but that doesn’t mean it’s the best move. Chapman would allow moving both Devers (-0.5) and Casas(-1.0). But if you like those obvious flaws.

 

As for right-handed bats, it will be interesting to see where. The OF might be predominantly left-handed, but S of today Duran, Verdugo, and Abreu are battling to join Rafaela in the final two spots. (Abreu likely starts the season Worcester.) 1b, 3b, DH, SS, and catcher are likely locked up. That leaves 2b.

 

So are the Sox cleaning out Duran to make way for, say, Teoscar Hernandez? Or Verdugo, and hoping one of Duran or Hernandez morphs into a capable RF?

 

And that’s just for one RHH bat…

 

Duran doesn't have the arm for RF. His range is pretty s***** too. He'd be awful at Fenway.

[moonslav59]

Duran doesn't have the arm for RF. His range is pretty s***** too. He'd be awful at Fenway.

 

Yes. We already have too many OF'ers and DH types where LF is their best OF position.

 

We keep adding guys like PHam, Refsnyder, Cordero, and yes, even Renfroe, who are best suited for LF.

 

The only guy they got who could play plus CF defense was signed to play 2B (Kike.)

 

Let's hope the new guy smartens up in this area.

[notin]

Duran doesn't have the arm for RF. His range is pretty s***** too. He'd be awful at Fenway.

 

Should Duran be on the 2024 team at all?

 

He can probably only play LF, and thankfully (for Duran’s sake) the Sox no longer have Adrian Beltre, who would frequently steam roll speedy Sox left fielders. But if they want a RHH bat, left field might be the best option.

 

Although Toronto has this slick-fielding third sacker who does hit right-handed and makes a ton of sense…

[moonslav59]

For what it's worth, here are the GS by position in 2023:

 

C

105 Wong

51 McGuire

(6 Alfaro/CHam)

I don't see much change in '24, except a healthy McGuire with about 62-72 GS.

 

1b

115 Casas (was benched some, early and injured, later)

35 Turner

12 Dalbec

I see Casas starting 142+. I'm not sure who will back-up 1B. (Devers? Duvall, if signed?)

 

2B- MAJOR CHANGES for 2024

51 Arroyo (gone)

44 EValdez

24 Urias

21 Reyes

14 Kike

(8 others, including 4 by JT)

I see Reyes and Urias splitting duty at 2B.

 

3B

149 Devers

7 Turner

(6 by urias & Dalbec)

I see Devers with 152-155 GS.)

 

SS- MAJOR CHANGES COMING

54 Kike (gone)

35 Story (injured for first 3+ months)

30 Chang

18 reyes

9 DHam

*8 others, including 5 by Rafaela)

I hope we see 147+ GS by Story and the rest by Reyes/Rafaela

 

LF- Maybe big changes coming

84 Yoshida (may DH near FT in '24)

38 Refsnyder (should platoon in '24)

20 Duran (may see big numbers in LF in '24)

9 Tapia (gone)

8 Abreu (may see more time, here)

3 Duvall (gone???)

I see a Duran-Refsnyder platoon as improving the D and O from 2023 in LF.

 

CF- Major question mark.

62 Duran (should be way less in CF)

56 Duvall (Even if he returns, it should be less in CF.)

11 Rafaela (more,) kike (gone,) and Abreu (more)

'7 Refsnyder (should be zero)

4 Tapia (gone)

A lot depends on Rafaela's bat.

 

RF- Dugo or no Dugo? (Duvall or ____?)

135 Dugo (traded?)

20 Duvall (re-signed for RF?)

(7 others)

Mayve a Duvall- Abreu combo works out well.

 

DH

98 JT

49 Yoshida

6 Story

5 refsnyder

4 Duvall

3 Casas

2 Devers

Maybe we see 142 Yoshida, 10 Casas, 5 Devers and 5 Refsnyder

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Should Duran be on the 2024 team at all?

 

He can probably only play LF, and thankfully (for Duran’s sake) the Sox no longer have Adrian Beltre, who would frequently steam roll speedy Sox left fielders. But if they want a RHH bat, left field might be the best option.

 

Although Toronto has this slick-fielding third sacker who does hit right-handed and makes a ton of sense…

 

Duran had the best fWAR on the team this year on a per-game basis, so there's that...

[moonslav59]

Duran had the best fWAR on the team this year on a per-game basis, so there's that...

 

Duran would have to really suck, and not just in ST'ing, to lose his 26 man slot.

 

Someone has to beat him out of his slot.

[mvp 78]

Duran had the best fWAR on the team this year on a per-game basis, so there's that...

 

Abreu was #2. Are we slotting them in as starting OFers? Are we giving them a chance to win the job in ST?

[notin]

Abreu was #2. Are we slotting them in as starting OFers? Are we giving them a chance to win the job in ST?

 

Slot them in now!

[notin]

Duran had the best fWAR on the team this year on a per-game basis, so there's that...

 

Ok maybe that makes him tradable for a missing piece. If we need a RH bat, that player has to play somewhere…

[moonslav59]

If we slot Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF and Abreu in RF as the FT starters, we better make sure we have a couple very capable back-ups.

 

I'm thinking slotting the 3 into 2 OF positions is likely pushing the envelope.

[Randy Red Sox]

Should Duran be on the 2024 team at all?

 

He can probably only play LF, and thankfully (for Duran’s sake) the Sox no longer have Adrian Beltre, who would frequently steam roll speedy Sox left fielders. But if they want a RHH bat, left field might be the best option.

 

Although Toronto has this slick-fielding third sacker who does hit right-handed and makes a ton of sense…

 

Chapman makes LESS THAN ZERO sense for the Sox. Think PITCHING, PITCHING, PITCHING, PITCHING and MORE PITCHING. Did I mention that the Sox need pitching???

[moonslav59]

Chapman makes LESS THAN ZERO sense for the Sox. Think PITCHING, PITCHING, PITCHING, PITCHING and MORE PITCHING. Did I mention that the Sox need pitching???

 

Just say it 3 times, or else we'll add six mediocre pitchers by spreading out the winter budget.

 

85-90% of the budget should go to:

SP1

SP2

SP3

 

10-15% to

RHB

LH RP

 

We could change those percentages by trading for a top SP.

[Dipre]

Chapman is bad, and notin should feel bad.

[Hugh2]

If we slot Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF and Abreu in RF as the FT starters, we better make sure we have a couple very capable back-ups.

 

I'm thinking slotting the 3 into 2 OF positions is likely pushing the envelope.

 

Not just that but we are going to want premium bats elsewhere. 2B? DH?

 

That's just not an outfield that should be planned for at this point in time.