A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

Prospects & Recently Graduated Prospects Who May See Action in 2023:

 

6 Post Prospects:

Duran

Crawford

Winckowski

Bello

Wong

Ort

 

8-10 Played in 2023 or Is Likely to Play in 2023 (w SP rankings):

2. Casas

4. Rafaela

6. Mata

8. Walter

13. Murphy

17. EValdez

23. Kelly

26. Hamilton

27. RFernandez

41. Broadway

48. OMosqueda

54. RFitzgerald

 

1-4 Long Shots/Late Season Call-Ups/2024:

1. Mayer

5. Yorke

14. Lugo

24. Abreu

33. Koss

35. Binelas

38. RHern

40. SScott

57. CShugart

60. VSantos

 

We could see 15-20 or these guys, at some point, this season.

 

Over half the constant number of the 26 man roster and maybe half the 40.

 

(We may see over 35 players at the ML level and 50 on the 40 man roster over the course of the 2023 season.)

[Bellhorn04]

Something tells me Casas is a playah.

[mvp 78]

Something tells me Casas is a playah.

 

MLB 2022:

OPS 766

wRC+ 120

BABIP 208

 

If his BABIP was even just 275, those numbers start really popping.

[moonslav59]

I really like Casas and think he's going to have a very nice season, but his most eye-popping stat line for 2022 was the 95 PAs.

 

That number is way too small to know much of anything.

[moonslav59]

Tanner Houck strikes out four in campaign for Red Sox 2023 rotation

WWW.MLB.COM

---

NORTH PORT, Fla. -- Tanner Houck has been a lot of things since he came to the Red Sox as a first-round Draft pick in 2017. A starter. A reliever. A starter. A bulk reliever. A closer. He’s proved his worth in versatility and willingness to do whatever the club

 

I've always felt Houck's skill set is better suited for the pen, but maybe giving him one last try for winning and keeping a rotation slot is not a bad idea.

 

It might make him shy away from pushing for a rotation slot, in the future, if he does not do well, this spring.

It might work, and having a solid SP is usually more important than having a solid RP'er.

 

I hate the constant jerking around of guys like Houck and Whitlock, so I know this sounds contradictory to my previous posts, but maybe this will work out well.

 

I do hope that if they send him back to the pen, he stays in a very defined pen role, the rest of the season- no matter what.

 

[mvp 78]

I really like Casas and think he's going to have a very nice season, but his most eye-popping stat line for 2022 was the 95 PAs.

 

That number is way too small to know much of anything.

 

That he could get a 20% bb rate over his first 95 PA's says a lot to me. Also, I really like the low whiff rate on fastballs as it shows that he didn't need to adjust to the heat, which is something other young players struggle with.

[mvp 78]

Tanner Houck strikes out four in campaign for Red Sox 2023 rotation

WWW.MLB.COM

---

NORTH PORT, Fla. -- Tanner Houck has been a lot of things since he came to the Red Sox as a first-round Draft pick in 2017. A starter. A reliever. A starter. A bulk reliever. A closer. He’s proved his worth in versatility and willingness to do whatever the club

 

I've always felt Houck's skill set is better suited for the pen, but maybe giving him one last try for winning and keeping a rotation slot is not a bad idea.

 

It might make him shy away from pushing for a rotation slot, in the future, if he does not do well, this spring.

It might work, and having a solid SP is usually more important than having a solid RP'er.

 

I hate the constant jerking around of guys like Houck and Whitlock, so I know this sounds contradictory to my previous posts, but maybe this will work out well.

 

I do hope that if they send him back to the pen, he stays in a very defined pen role, the rest of the season- no matter what.

 

 

Considering the question marks in the rotation, there's a chance that he could stick there year long. The only issue is that he needs to be pulled after the second time through the order.

[moonslav59]

Considering the question marks in the rotation, there's a chance that he could stick there year long. The only issue is that he needs to be pulled after the second time through the order.

 

In today's game, that's not all that rare.

 

Also, with 13 man staffs, and assuming we have 2-3 long RP'ers on the 26 (Crawford, Wink & maybe Mata), maybe it will be okay.

[moonslav59]

That he could get a 20% bb rate over his first 95 PA's says a lot to me. Also, I really like the low whiff rate on fastballs as it shows that he didn't need to adjust to the heat, which is something other young players struggle with.

 

I was pretty excited about the BB rate, too, and he showed the power he is known for, too (35 HRs per 650.)

 

I'm just pointing out the sample size it too low. (Bobby Dee had 92 PAs and a .959 OPS in 2020.)

[mvp 78]

In today's game, that's not all that rare.

 

Also, with 13 man staffs, and assuming we have 2-3 long RP'ers on the 26 (Crawford, Wink & maybe Mata), maybe it will be okay.

 

The only issue with that is you need someone aside from Pivetta to be a workhorse. I guess that's Kluber. So Kluber and Pivetta give you innings, but everyone else is on a short leash every time out?

[mvp 78]

I was pretty excited about the BB rate, too, and he showed the power he is known for, too (35 HRs per 650.)

 

I'm just pointing out the sample size it too low. (Bobby Dee had 92 PAs and a .959 OPS in 2020.)

 

Dalbec's 92 PA:

42.4 K%

394 BABIP

 

I see warning signs!

[Bellhorn04]

In today's game, that's not all that rare.

 

Also, with 13 man staffs, and assuming we have 2-3 long RP'ers on the 26 (Crawford, Wink & maybe Mata), maybe it will be okay.

 

It looks like they're pushing some of the other relievers to pitch more than 1 inning sometimes too (Bleier, Brasier).

[moonslav59]

Dalbec's 92 PA:

42.4 K%

394 BABIP

 

I see warning signs!

 

Agreed.

 

Casas has a much better chance of sticking around than Bobby Dee ever had.

 

Again, I'm just saying the sample size is too small to know much. His ST'ing is looking real good.

 

I'm pumped on this kid.

[moonslav59]

It looks like they're pushing some of the other relievers to pitch more than 1 inning sometimes too (Bleier, Brasier).

 

Schreiber and others may go 2 IP, from time to time, as well.

[mvp 78]

It looks like they're pushing some of the other relievers to pitch more than 1 inning sometimes too (Bleier, Brasier).

 

I don't know how much to read into the ST workload. Part of it is just the starters only going for 2 innings or so. Maybe they'll throw Ort to the wolves for a second inning? Seems kinda wild to me.

[mvp 78]

Agreed.

 

Casas has a much better chance of sticking around than Bobby Dee ever had.

 

Again, I'm just saying the sample size is too small to know much. His ST'ing is looking real good.

 

I'm pumped on this kid.

 

I'm not projecting out his career, but what we have seen so far shows that he has a better chance of sticking long term. That shows A LOT actually.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The only issue with that is you need someone aside from Pivetta to be a workhorse. I guess that's Kluber. So Kluber and Pivetta give you innings, but everyone else is on a short leash every time out?

 

Do you really think it's likely Cora will "take care of" his other veterans, but let Old Man Kluber go deep into the cold fake spring nights? Better get ready for a lot of porcine backside plans.

[mvp 78]

Do you really think it's likely Cora will "take care of" his other veterans, but let Old Man Kluber go deep into the cold fake spring nights? Better get ready for a lot of porcine backside plans.

 

In Spring? Probably not. I just think Kluber has a better shot of wracking up the innings over the season than most other starters currently on the staff.

 

Why?

 

1. Pitches to contact.

2. Low bb rate.

3. Currently more healthy than Sale/Paxton/Whitlock/Bello.

[moonslav59]

I'm not projecting out his career, but what we have seen so far shows that he has a better chance of sticking long term. That shows A LOT actually.

 

I do agree, players with lower K rates in the minors have a better chance at sticking around.

 

I like Casas' chances.

[Nick]

Tanner Houck strikes out four in campaign for Red Sox 2023 rotation

WWW.MLB.COM

---

NORTH PORT, Fla. -- Tanner Houck has been a lot of things since he came to the Red Sox as a first-round Draft pick in 2017. A starter. A reliever. A starter. A bulk reliever. A closer. He’s proved his worth in versatility and willingness to do whatever the club

 

I've always felt Houck's skill set is better suited for the pen, but maybe giving him one last try for winning and keeping a rotation slot is not a bad idea.

 

It might make him shy away from pushing for a rotation slot, in the future, if he does not do well, this spring.

It might work, and having a solid SP is usually more important than having a solid RP'er.

 

I hate the constant jerking around of guys like Houck and Whitlock, so I know this sounds contradictory to my previous posts, but maybe this will work out well.

 

I do hope that if they send him back to the pen, he stays in a very defined pen role, the rest of the season- no matter what.

 

 

His changeup looked good vs Atlanta. He wants to be a starter. He's under team control for 5 years. Relievers are dime a dozen. You don't give up on a guy like Houck.

I think he has higher ceiling than say Pivetta.

[mvp 78]

His changeup looked good vs Atlanta. He wants to be a starter. He's under team control for 5 years. Relievers are dime a dozen. You don't give up on a guy like Houck.

I think he has higher ceiling than say Pivetta.

 

Crazy that Houck is still pre-ARB next season too.

[mvp 78]

@jay_jaffe

new @fangraphs: After making just 2 starts last. year and 11 over the last 3 seasons, Chris Sale is on the comeback trail, heading up what is potentially a much-improved Red Sox rotation

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/chris-sale-begins-his-latest-comeback/

 

The Sale who took the mound at JetBlue Park on Monday showed little evidence of those misfortunes. Indeed, the 6-foot-6 lefty appeared loose and relaxed while throwing 31 pitches (24 for strikes) over two scoreless innings against the Tigers, reaching 96 mph with his fastball. That said, he wasn’t exactly facing Murderer’s Row, and he did have a few minor hiccups.

 

The game had no Statcast coverage, alas, so any velocity reports came from the broadcast or subsequent reporting, but even while working out of the stretch with nobody on base, Sale did dial his four-seamer up to 96 against leadoff hitter Matt Vierling in the first inning. He also committed a pitch clock violation while ahead 1-2, and ended up surrendering a single to left center.

 

Sale didn’t have another problem with the clock, and after the outing, he would tell NESN, “I’m a huge fan of it and I love it. It gets people into it and there’s little lag time… It’s going to take some adjustments, but once we get a couple under our belt we’ll be fine.”

 

Again, without Statcast I can’t give you a breakdown of his pitches, but he did show good command, his slider had bite, and he worked in his changeup, a pitch he’s struggled with in recent years. From 2019-22, batters hit .328 and slugged .557 against the pitch while whiffing on 29% percent of swings, down from a peak of 38.5%.

 

Afterwards, Sale was beaming, not only pleased with his fastball command but vocally appreciative of everyone who helped him in his quest to get back to the mound. Following a winter in which he sought therapy to work through the mental difficulties he’d encountered over the past few seasons — including the pressures of living up to the five-year, $145 million extension he signed in March 2019 — he said, “I’m trying to have more fun with it. I’m trying to be more open-minded. I’m trying to kind of soak some things in and really appreciate it.”

 

Particularly if Sale is healthy, the rotation does have a bit more promise. The unit ranked ninth in the AL in WAR last year (8.6), 10th in FIP (4.19) and 11th in ERA (4.49), but with Rich Hill, Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Wacha all departing in free agency, the starting five has a new look. With the return of Sale and the addition of free agent Corey Kluber, the unit — which also includes Nick Pivetta, James Paxton, and Garrett Whitlock each penciled in for at least 100 innings — projects for the league’s sixth-highest WAR (12.3) and fourth-lowest FIP (3.89). But good gravy, this group is all too familiar with the 60-day injured list.

 

As the projections suggest, that’s a pretty decent rotation if everybody shows up even at those modest inning totals, but there’s also a lot that can go wrong, and not a lot of additional depth in the minors if it does. Mata and Walter combined for seven starts at Triple-A Worcester last year after spending most of the season at lower levels. Each has some promise but also command issues, and will need to pitch his way into the picture.

[moonslav59]

@jay_jaffe

new @fangraphs: After making just 2 starts last. year and 11 over the last 3 seasons, Chris Sale is on the comeback trail, heading up what is potentially a much-improved Red Sox rotation

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/chris-sale-begins-his-latest-comeback/

 

The Sale who took the mound at JetBlue Park on Monday showed little evidence of those misfortunes. Indeed, the 6-foot-6 lefty appeared loose and relaxed while throwing 31 pitches (24 for strikes) over two scoreless innings against the Tigers, reaching 96 mph with his fastball. That said, he wasn’t exactly facing Murderer’s Row, and he did have a few minor hiccups.

 

The game had no Statcast coverage, alas, so any velocity reports came from the broadcast or subsequent reporting, but even while working out of the stretch with nobody on base, Sale did dial his four-seamer up to 96 against leadoff hitter Matt Vierling in the first inning. He also committed a pitch clock violation while ahead 1-2, and ended up surrendering a single to left center.

 

Sale didn’t have another problem with the clock, and after the outing, he would tell NESN, “I’m a huge fan of it and I love it. It gets people into it and there’s little lag time… It’s going to take some adjustments, but once we get a couple under our belt we’ll be fine.”

 

Again, without Statcast I can’t give you a breakdown of his pitches, but he did show good command, his slider had bite, and he worked in his changeup, a pitch he’s struggled with in recent years. From 2019-22, batters hit .328 and slugged .557 against the pitch while whiffing on 29% percent of swings, down from a peak of 38.5%.

 

Afterwards, Sale was beaming, not only pleased with his fastball command but vocally appreciative of everyone who helped him in his quest to get back to the mound. Following a winter in which he sought therapy to work through the mental difficulties he’d encountered over the past few seasons — including the pressures of living up to the five-year, $145 million extension he signed in March 2019 — he said, “I’m trying to have more fun with it. I’m trying to be more open-minded. I’m trying to kind of soak some things in and really appreciate it.”

 

Particularly if Sale is healthy, the rotation does have a bit more promise. The unit ranked ninth in the AL in WAR last year (8.6), 10th in FIP (4.19) and 11th in ERA (4.49), but with Rich Hill, Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Wacha all departing in free agency, the starting five has a new look. With the return of Sale and the addition of free agent Corey Kluber, the unit — which also includes Nick Pivetta, James Paxton, and Garrett Whitlock each penciled in for at least 100 innings — projects for the league’s sixth-highest WAR (12.3) and fourth-lowest FIP (3.89). But good gravy, this group is all too familiar with the 60-day injured list.

 

As the projections suggest, that’s a pretty decent rotation if everybody shows up even at those modest inning totals, but there’s also a lot that can go wrong, and not a lot of additional depth in the minors if it does. Mata and Walter combined for seven starts at Triple-A Worcester last year after spending most of the season at lower levels. Each has some promise but also command issues, and will need to pitch his way into the picture.

 

Feel Good Story.

[moonslav59]

His changeup looked good vs Atlanta. He wants to be a starter. He's under team control for 5 years. Relievers are dime a dozen. You don't give up on a guy like Houck.

I think he has higher ceiling than say Pivetta.

 

One last try as a starter - not as a pitcher, and he may very well get more tries to start.

 

I'm just saying I've been against jerking him around, but think starting him off in the rotation makes sense, now.

Edited March 8, 2023 by moonslav59

[Nick]

One last try ads a starter - not as a pitcher, and he may very well get more tries to start.

 

I'm just saying I've been against jerking him around, but think starting him off in the rotation makes sense, now.

 

Along those lines, especially with young pitchers such as Houck, Whitlock, Bello, Mata,etc.

 

For our pitching gurus, why in the hell not stretch them all out during spring training? Is it because they won't be able to 'bounce' back after an inning stint as a reliever when the season starts? Is it that they can pitch one or six innings but only every 5th day because they've been 'stretched'?

 

Just curious from a guy that knows NOTHING about pitching.

[moonslav59]

Along those lines, especially with young pitchers such as Houck, Whitlock, Bello, Mata,etc.

 

For our pitching gurus, why in the hell not stretch them all out during spring training? Is it because they won't be able to 'bounce' back after an inning stint as a reliever when the season starts? Is it that they can pitch one or six innings but only every 5th day because they've been 'stretched'?

 

Just curious from a guy that knows NOTHING about pitching.

 

I do know they are extreme creatures of habit and routines. Starters do throw hard on a day between starts, so I do think it might not be such a hard thing, physically to move from SP to RP, but the mental aspect is another thing, altogether.

 

[mvp 78]

@MacCerullo

Alex Cora says Trevor Story began taking ground balls yesterday. Definitely a positive sign that he could potentially play at some point in 2023.

 

Did he take them at 2b???

[Hugh2]

At some point in 2023? I thought he figured to be back by June? did I miss something, now it's "maybe"????

[mvp 78]

At some point in 2023? I thought he figured to be back by June? did I miss something, now it's "maybe"????

 

It's a modified TJS. There was always a risk that he'd be out the full season. If the team really sucks, why bring him back in August?

[moonslav59]

My guess is July, assuming the season still has meaning, then.