A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

You are probably right but my question would be was Chang available to play ss yesterday?

 

The only possible explanation I can offer is that Chang is coming off an injury and they're easing him back in. That's all I've got.

[cp176]

And who does that consistently?

 

Even Papi had almost identical numbers in clutch situations vs non clutch. In some areas he was worse.

 

No one does that consistently. A few of the greatest seem to be able to step up more often in the most intense of times. I call those clutch players. I could not care less what anyone thinks clutch is or isn't.

[Bellhorn04]

And who does that consistently?

 

Even Papi had almost identical numbers in clutch situations vs non clutch. In some areas he was worse.

 

The Bellhorn Clutch Metric uses only postseason numbers vs. regular season numbers. It simplifies things tremendously. Because there are very few regular season games that are huge games, whereas almost every postseason game is a huge game.

[cp176]

The only possible explanation I can offer is that Chang is coming off an injury and they're easing him back in. That's all I've got.

 

You might be right. I do like your way of looking at things like this better than mine. I would tend to call it a stupid move. hard for me to imagine any pitcher really being particularly happy with Cora yarding out an inferior player in such an important position. they do a good job of hiding their emotions out there when he continues to stumble around.

[moonslav59]

You might be right. I do like your way of looking at things like this better than mine. I would tend to call it a stupid move. hard for me to imagine any pitcher really being particularly happy with Cora yarding out an inferior player in such an important position. they do a good job of hiding their emotions out there when he continues to stumble around.

 

Cora said Chang was not going to play everyday out of the gate.

 

Reyes must be close to ready.

 

BTW, Kike made at least 3 mistakes, yesterday. He’s actually getting worse at SS.

[moonslav59]

The Bellhorn Clutch Metric uses only postseason numbers vs. regular season numbers. It simplifies things tremendously. Because there are very few regular season games that are huge games, whereas almost every postseason game is a huge game.

 

Papi:

.931 regular season

.947 post season

 

And he’s “the guy?”

[cp176]

Cora said Chang was not going to play everyday out of the gate.

 

Reyes must be close to ready.

 

BTW, Kike made at least 3 mistakes, yesterday. He’s actually getting worse at SS.

 

And this is likely why it just seems like such a strange way to do business. On the one hand Cora says that he will not be using Kike in the ss role and then when Chang is available he doesn't use him in the a position of great need when he could have. I get that he is concerned about the health of his players as well he should be. I just would like to know what's it going to be?

[Bellhorn04]

Papi:

.931 regular season

.947 post season

 

And he’s “the guy?”

 

Yes. Because the other factor is that postseason offensive numbers are lower, because the pitching is better, due to the off days largely eliminating back end starters and back end relievers.

[Bellhorn04]

And this is likely why it just seems like such a strange way to do business. On the one hand Cora says that he will not be using Kike in the ss role and then when Chang is available he doesn't use him in the a position of great need when he could have. I get that he is concerned about the health of his players as well he should be. I just would like to know what's it going to be?

 

What did Cora actually say though? Did he say Kike will never play the position again, or that he is no longer the regular?

[notin]

What did Cora actually say though? Did he say Kike will never play the position again, or that he is no longer the regular?

 

He did say Chang would not be able to play everyday at first. Kike is reality the only option left.

 

Plus Cora does seem to like getting Arroyo involved periodically, which I think is a good idea. Moving Kike to SS on occasion is probably inevitable.

 

I’d like to see the Sox add a SS (Tim Anderson? Paul DeJong?) but I think it’s unlikely. So just focus on an SP or two…

[cp176]

What did Cora actually say though? Did he say Kike will never play the position again, or that he is no longer the regular?

 

I have no idea. regardless of what he said, I just wonder what is going on in his brain when he puts him out there and has to face the music for his decision continually. Most of us who have been involved in athletics know what the definition of stupid is. The team is a lot more important than the individual in this case and he doesn't help the team by playing Kike at ss any time. Doesn't do much for Kike either I would imagine.

[notin]

Yes. Because the other factor is that postseason offensive numbers are lower, because the pitching is better, due to the off days largely eliminating back end starters and back end relievers.

 

Or… the pitching isn’t better because almost all of the SP have 150 IP+ on their arms already for the year…

[Randy Red Sox]

What low cost SP are available from teams out of contention is the question.

He did say Chang would not be able to play everyday at first. Kike is reality the only option left.

 

Plus Cora does seem to like getting Arroyo involved periodically, which I think is a good idea. Moving Kike to SS on occasion is probably inevitable.

 

I’d like to see the Sox add a SS (Tim Anderson? Paul DeJong?) but I think it’s unlikely. So just focus on an SP or two…

[moonslav59]

Yes. Because the other factor is that postseason offensive numbers are lower, because the pitching is better, due to the off days largely eliminating back end starters and back end relievers.

 

It’s not about proving a player did better in the postseason or not. Yes, pitching is better so it’s harder to match your regular season numbers, but of course the reverse is true for pitchers. They are facing better hitters, in general.

 

If you put Papis regular season numbers into a computer and asked it to run 100 samples based on the number of PAs he has in the PO, it would not generate 100 samples at .931. Some would be near 1.000 and some near .800. Just because a guy has great numbers in the PO does not prove he has some

special ability or skill.

[notin]

What low cost SP are available from teams out of contention is the question.

 

I’ve been throwing out the name of Oakland’s Paul Blackburn for a while now. He’s not the most exciting SP, but he’s capable.

 

Of course he’s under control for another year and makes little money, so Oakland might not be so keen on giving him away.

 

I think just about every Cardinals’ SP will be available. Montgomery figures to be the costliest, but I’m sure Flaherty, Wainwright and Matz can all be had reasonably…

[moonslav59]

I have no idea. regardless of what he said, I just wonder what is going on in his brain when he puts him out there and has to face the music for his decision continually. Most of us who have been involved in athletics know what the definition of stupid is. The team is a lot more important than the individual in this case and he doesn't help the team by playing Kike at ss any time. Doesn't do much for Kike either I would imagine.

 

Well said. If Kike is the only choice at SS when Chang needs to sit, then Cora needs to beg Bloom to call up Reyes or DHam or add another glove SS to the 40.

 

This has to stop, NOW!

[notin]

Well said. If Kike is the only choice at SS when Chang needs to sit, then Cora needs to beg Bloom to call up Reyes or DHam or add another glove SS to the 40.

 

This has to stop, NOW!

 

I’m sure that conversation has happened. Cora is probably satisfied with Kike as a backup. It might have even been his idea for all we know…

[moonslav59]

I’m sure that conversation has happened. Cora is probably satisfied with Kike as a backup. It might have even been his idea for all we know…

 

Then Bloom has to beg Cora not to play him at SS or DFA/trade him, so Cora can’t play him.

 

I don’t care who is at fault. It needs to stop, NOW!

 

Actually, it need to stop weeks ago. As bad as DHam looked, even he is better than Yippy Kike!

[notin]

Then Bloom has to beg Cora not to play him at SS or DFA/trade him, so Cora can’t play him.

 

I don’t care who is at fault. It needs to stop, NOW!

 

Actually, it need to stop weeks ago. As bad as DHam looked, even he is better than Yippy Kike!

 

If it gets to the point where Bloom has to manage the lineup, Cora should just get fired. And that’s probably what would happen.

 

I think these two are more on the same page than critics of either individual want to acknowledge…

[Bellhorn04]

Or… the pitching isn’t better because almost all of the SP have 150 IP+ on their arms already for the year…

 

No, it is better. The stats show it.

[Bellhorn04]

It’s not about proving a player did better in the postseason or not. Yes, pitching is better so it’s harder to match your regular season numbers, but of course the reverse is true for pitchers. They are facing better hitters, in general.

 

If you put Papis regular season numbers into a computer and asked it to run 100 samples based on the number of PAs he has in the PO, it would not generate 100 samples at .931. Some would be near 1.000 and some near .800. Just because a guy has great numbers in the PO does not prove he has some

special ability or skill.

 

None of this can be proved. None of this can be disproved. It just comes down to what you believe is possible, really.

[notin]

No, it is better. The stats show it.

 

What stats, if you please…

[Bellhorn04]

I’ve been throwing out the name of Oakland’s Paul Blackburn for a while now. He’s not the most exciting SP, but he’s capable.

 

Blackburn is not very good. The A's moved him from their rotation to the pen.

[moonslav59]

No, it is better. The stats show it.

 

So, clutch pitching > clutch hitting?

[Bellhorn04]

What stats, if you please…

 

Here's a start.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-quick-review-of-how-playoff-offense-has-worked/

[Bellhorn04]

So, clutch pitching > clutch hitting?

 

You're veering off-line already. It's an indisputable fact that pitching is better in the postseason, and the explanation is simple: off days allow teams to stay away from their back end pitchers. They can't do that in the regular season.

[notin]

Blackburn is not very good. The A's moved him from their rotation to the pen.

 

Due to illness.

 

He missed one start and threw 1IP the next day.

 

He’s not a game-changer, but you’re over-analysis is very superficial and misleading…

[Bellhorn04]

Due to illness.

 

He missed one start and threw 1IP the next day.

 

He’s not a game-changer, but you’re over-analysis is very superficial and misleading…

 

He has a 2.3 fWAR in 286 MLB innings. That's below average.

 

What exactly in his numbers or his makeup do you like?

[notin]

You're veering off-line already. It's an indisputable fact that pitching is better in the postseason, and the explanation is simple: off days allow teams to stay away from their back end pitchers. They can't do that in the regular season.

 

Your entire premise is flawed that clutch is decided by postseason numbers. By your argument, every two out single with no one on base through the month of October is a clutch hit, and that’s not some random occurrence but rather something that happens in every postseason game…

[Bellhorn04]

Your entire premise is flawed that clutch is decided by postseason numbers. By your argument, every two out single with no one on base through the month of October is a clutch hit, and that’s not some random occurrence but rather something that happens in every postseason game…

 

You obviously missed the part where I said it's a simplification.