A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Hugh2]

Rentals also don't cost as much as they used too. An ace pitcher with 2 months of control might cost you two prospects with the best one being in the 6-10 range.

[moonslav59]

A deadline trade for a pitcher with a lot of years of control left is pretty rare, I would say. Last year the Mariners traded for Castillo and then signed him to an extension, which is a different way to go about it.

 

True.

 

I mentioned the extension part as an idea.

 

Guys with 1.3 years left are more likely- like Montas, last year. (I hope we do better than that!)

[moonslav59]

Rentals also don't cost as much as they used too. An ace pitcher with 2 months of control might cost you two prospects with the best one being in the 6-10 range.

 

There have not been many solid SP'er trades at the deadline, recently.

 

I would guess we would not trade any of these guys for just a rental"

 

1. Mayer

2. Bleis

3. Rafaela

4. Anthony

5. Yorke

6. Drohan

 

I'm not sure about...

7. Perales

8. Romero

9. Wikelman

 

I think these guys might be offered (maybe even 2)

10. EValdez

11. Walter

12. Bonaci

13. Murphy

(14. Meidroth & 16. Joh Garcia, I'd like to keep.)

15. Jordan

17. Paulino

18. Mata

(I like E R-C and Abreu, too.)

21. Hickey

22. D Ham

 

Throw-ins:

(Dalbec)

34. Kavadas

35. Lugo

38. Scott

39. Sikes

43. Koss

47. Jacques

and others

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

BTV's dollar values:

65 Mayer

42 Duran

34 Bello

32 Whitlock

28 Casas

27 Dugo

25 Rafaela

24 Bleis

22 Yoshida

20 Crawford

19 Houck & Yorke

13 Devers

11 Anthony

10 Schreiber

9 Romero

8 Wink

7 Alcantara

6 Paxton

5 Bonaci, Meidroth, Paulino, Walter

4 Bastardo, Jordan, Hickey, Wong, Drohan, Mata, Ref, EValdez

3 Bernardino, Blalock, E R-C, Murphy, Abreu

 

Some other team's player's values:

 

A's

15 Sears, 11 Moll, 8 Waldichuk, 6 Blackburn

 

Royals

2B 91 Witt, 20 Singer, 17 Hernandez, 10 Lynch, 9 Barlow

 

Rockies

18 Lawrence

 

Nats

30 Gray, 28 Gore, SS 23 Abrams, 8 Harvey

 

Cards

2B 20 Edman, 16 Liberatore, 15 Hesley, 14 Montgomery, 6 Pallante, SS 5 DeJong

 

Would anyone trade Rafaela for Montgomery, Pallante and DeJong?

 

How about Romero & Yorke?

 

BTV accepted both.

 

Edited July 11, 2023 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

True.

 

I mentioned the extension part as an idea.

 

Guys with 1.3 years left are more likely- like Montas, last year. (I hope we do better than that!)

 

I hope we do as well as that -- if we're on the other side of the deal. The desperate Yanks gave up what are now three big league pitchers (plus another minor leaguer) -- including JP Sears -- for Montas and Lou Trivino.

 

That's the kind of package Bloom may be offered for Paxton -- and acquiring an under-30 starter like Sears for the rotation who's under control for the next five years may be too tempting to pass on... even if the Sox are still going for it.

[Bellhorn04]

I hope we do as well as that -- if we're on the other side of the deal. The desperate Yanks gave up what are now three big league pitchers (plus another minor leaguer) -- including JP Sears -- for Montas and Lou Trivino.

 

That's the kind of package Bloom may be offered for Paxton -- and acquiring an under-30 starter like Sears for the rotation who's under control for the next five years may be too tempting to pass on... even if the Sox are still going for it.

 

But what would it take to entice the A's to trade Sears?

[Maxbialystock]

But what would it take to entice the A's to trade Sears?

 

Excellent point because the A's should never trade Sears for an older and pricier pitcher.

[notin]

How many other 2022 Sox relievers had better numbers?

 

Strahm and cricketts.

 

 

Houck?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Excellent point because the A's should never trade Sears for an older and pricier pitcher.

 

The post didn't suggest a Paxton to the A's trade for Sears, but a Paxton trade to a "contender" who'd offer a kind of package, -- like Sears and others -- similar to what the Yankees gave up for Montas a year ago.

[Maxbialystock]

Of course -- fans want to win now, today, especially the day they pay for tickets to see maybe their one game in person for the year.

 

Bloom and Cora know their club is too lopsided with lefty sticks, and that a legitimate playoff run would be greatly enhanced with a consistent righty power threat behind Devers. And since Duvall is already here and paid for, it would naturally be ideal if he could regain that opening week stardom... if his wrist will let him regain his timing.

 

Meanwhile, maybe Bloom is working OT trying to pry southpaw JP Sears from the Oakland Lost Paychecks before another wild card rival does...

 

I think you've oversimplified the problem with Duvall. First and foremost, the very hot 8 games at the beginning of the season were almost certainly an anomaly, which I think you and others continue to think was the real deal.

 

Next you point to his 33 dingers in 2016, 31 in 2017, and 35 two years ago (for Miami and Atlanta). What you leave out is that is that, as has been the case this year, Duvall is injury prone. In 2018 he hit just 15 dingers and in 2019 10 and last year 12. He ain't no sure thing this year.

 

But to me the bigger problem is that Duvall is an outfielder and therefore competing with three of the best bats--all lefties, granted--on the team: Yoshida (OPS .874); Duran (OPS .886); and Verdugo (OPS .817). Duvall's OPS, season to date, is actually a robust .850, but entirely dependent on those 8 games in April. In June his OPS in 18 games was .548 and in July so far (6 games) .617.

 

That said, I'm fine with not trading for a righty bat unless one is available for low cost, especially in prospects. Keep Duvall, who still could turn things around.

 

But don't tell Cora he must keep playing him every freaking day. I have defended Cora when he chose not to play Duran, and will do the same for whenever he doesn't play Duvall.

[Bellhorn04]

The post didn't suggest a Paxton to the A's trade for Sears, but a Paxton trade to a "contender" who'd offer a kind of package, -- like Sears and others -- similar to what the Yankees gave up for Montas a year ago.

 

Got it.

[Maxbialystock]

BTV's dollar values:

65 Mayer

42 Duran

34 Bello

32 Whitlock

28 Casas

27 Dugo

25 Rafaela

24 Bleis

22 Yoshida

20 Crawford

19 Houck & Yorke

13 Devers

11 Anthony

10 Schreiber

9 Romero

8 Wink

7 Alcantara

6 Paxton

5 Bonaci, Meidroth, Paulino, Walter

4 Bastardo, Jordan, Hickey, Wong, Drohan, Mata, Ref, EValdez

3 Bernardino, Blalock, E R-C, Murphy, Abreu

 

Some other team's player's values:

 

A's

15 Sears, 11 Moll, 8 Waldichuk, 6 Blackburn

 

Royals

2B 91 Witt, 20 Singer, 17 Hernandez, 10 Lynch, 9 Barlow

 

Rockies

18 Lawrence

 

Nats

30 Gray, 28 Gore, SS 23 Abrams, 8 Harvey

 

Cards

2B 20 Edman, 16 Liberatore, 15 Hesley, 14 Montgomery, 6 Pallante, SS 5 DeJong

 

Would anyone trade Rafaela for Montgomery, Pallante and DeJong?

 

How about Romero & Yorke?

 

BTV accepted both.

 

 

What is BTV?

[Bellhorn04]

But to me the bigger problem is that Duvall is an outfielder and therefore competing with three of the best bats--all lefties, granted--on the team: Yoshida (OPS .874); Duran (OPS .886); and Verdugo (OPS .817). Duvall's OPS, season to date, is actually a robust .850, but entirely dependent on those 8 games in April. In June his OPS in 18 games was .548 and in July so far (6 games) .617.

 

But in the last 3 games it's 1.008.

[Bellhorn04]

What is BTV?

 

(In first with) Baseball Trade Values.

[Maxbialystock]

The post didn't suggest a Paxton to the A's trade for Sears, but a Paxton trade to a "contender" who'd offer a kind of package, -- like Sears and others -- similar to what the Yankees gave up for Montas a year ago.

 

Got it. Trade with a contender who wants to win this year and get back Sears-like pitcher with potential and longevity. The Sox gave up Iglesias in 2013 to get back Jake Peavy who was 4-1 in the regular season (ERA 4.04) not too helpful in the postseason (ERA 7.11). Lester, Lackey, and Uehara were the stars in the 2013 postseason.

 

Detroit quickly installed Iglesias at SS and he played against the Sox in the ALCS.

Edited July 11, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

But in the last 3 games it's 1.008.

 

Most players are greatly helped by their best 9 games.

[moonslav59]

CBS has these possible earliest ETAs on our injured players:

 

7/14 Pablo Reyes (may be DFA'd or traded) & R Bleier (might be helpful)

 

7/17 C Kluber (whoop-dee-freakin'- doo!)

 

7/18 G Whitlock (I hope so!)

 

7/21 J Schreiber (has been rehabbing) & R McGuire (bye bye Alfaro?)

 

7/22 K Ort (see Kluber comment)

 

8/1 (Trade Deadline) T Houck (We need him back)

8/1 T Story (may DH for a while, first)

 

8/2 C Sale (not counting on this.)

 

9/1 R Mondesi (unreal timing)

 

9/8 Z Kelly (probably too little, too late)

 

2024 W Mills

 

Man, that's a lot of players!

 

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

Mondesi and Mills were wastes of 40 man roster spots this offseason.

[moonslav59]

Mondesi and Mills were wastes of 40 man roster spots this offseason.

 

Being on the 60 day IL makes that not matter, so much, but yes. Neither did anything or will do anything.

 

Mills might, going forward.

[mvp 78]

Being on the 60 day IL makes that not matter, so much, but yes. Neither did anything or will do anything.

 

Mills might, going forward.

 

Wrong! Neither were on the 60 day IL in Spring Training. They both took up roster spots that could have been used by functional players!

[moonslav59]

Wrong! Neither were on the 60 day IL in Spring Training. They both took up roster spots that could have been used by functional players!

 

Wrong! I never said opening day. We had several players on the opening day roster that did worse than these two who did nothing.

 

Mills might help us, next year.

 

Mondesi was a waste, but the 40 man roster slot was a minor issue.

 

We've created 6 slots to the 40 man since opening day, some a revolving door.

 

The whole talk of Ward & Song over Ort and Brasier turned out to be folly. (We could have axed both for Mondesi and Mills, and been no worse off.)

Edited July 12, 2023 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Roster Fiends!

[notin]

Mondesi and Mills were wastes of 40 man roster spots this offseason.

 

Sox might have lost Wallace in the Rule 5 draft without making that deal…

[moonslav59]

Sox might have lost Wallace in the Rule 5 draft without making that deal…

 

Or just traded Taylor for a non 40 guy.

[oldtimer]

Wrong! I never said opening day. We had several players on the opening day roster that did worse than these two who did nothing.

 

Mills might help us, next year.

 

Mondesi was a waste, but the 40 man roster slot was a minor issue.

 

We've created 6 slots to the 40 man since opening day, some a revolving door.

 

The whole talk of Ward & Song over Ort and Brasier turned out to be folly. (We could have axed both for Mondesi and Mills, and been no worse off.)

 

You are correct. We picked up guys who have done nothing for us, so we won't miss them. We also have guys like Sale, Story and Kluber who represent a significant part of the payroll and who have done little or nothing for the team. It's somewhat remarkable that we are over 500 and not completely out of it. Bloom will have a tough call in the trade market, but I would certainly get rid or underperformers and non performers, who have no 2024 future. Kike is another tough call but replaceable and probably should be traded at any reasonable opportunity.

 

Checking the All Star game and we had one guy involved and only pitching 1/3 of an inning. Shows how our personnel are perceived.

[vegasbob]

In a complete shocker, I will say that Corey Kluber will undergo a major progression in August and September to become again a consistent winner surprising the Sox and himself. Look for it to happen.

[moonslav59]

You are correct. We picked up guys who have done nothing for us, so we won't miss them. We also have guys like Sale, Story and Kluber who represent a significant part of the payroll and who have done little or nothing for the team. It's somewhat remarkable that we are over 500 and not completely out of it. Bloom will have a tough call in the trade market, but I would certainly get rid or underperformers and non performers, who have no 2024 future. Kike is another tough call but replaceable and probably should be traded at any reasonable opportunity.

 

Checking the All Star game and we had one guy involved and only pitching 1/3 of an inning. Shows how our personnel are perceived.

 

Sale had one bad start, then put up great numbers for a 10 game stretch.

 

We went 8-3 in his starts. We are 5 games over .500. Do the math.

 

Note: in one of those 3 loses, Sale went 8 IP allowing just 1 run.

[moonslav59]

In a complete shocker, I will say that Corey Kluber will undergo a major progression in August and September to become again a consistent winner surprising the Sox and himself. Look for it to happen.

 

Could happen.

 

Not likely.

[mvp 78]

Sox might have lost Wallace in the Rule 5 draft without making that deal…

 

Oh no! He's in AA with a 1.65 WHIP. He would have been returned like Politi. You can let low upside relievers go.

[dgalehouse]

You are correct. We picked up guys who have done nothing for us, so we won't miss them. We also have guys like Sale, Story and Kluber who represent a significant part of the payroll and who have done little or nothing for the team. It's somewhat remarkable that we are over 500 and not completely out of it. Bloom will have a tough call in the trade market, but I would certainly get rid or underperformers and non performers, who have no 2024 future. Kike is another tough call but replaceable and probably should be traded at any reasonable opportunity.

 

Checking the All Star game and we had one guy involved and only pitching 1/3 of an inning. Shows how our personnel are perceived.

 

I think Jansen was slated to pitch the ninth in a possible save situation , but Bautista had lost the lead and his pitch count was getting up there , so Dusty Baker made the switch. Also, I think you could make a case that Verdugo and/or Devers deserved a spot. Anyway, it was a good game. I enjoyed it. The All Star Game does not have the intense league rivalry it used to , but it is fun to watch. A lot of talent on display.