A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[dgalehouse]

In a complete shocker, I will say that Corey Kluber will undergo a major progression in August and September to become again a consistent winner surprising the Sox and himself. Look for it to happen.

 

That may sound strange, but I think it is quite possible nonetheless.

[Duran Is The Man]

Could happen.

 

Not likely.

 

 

 

why not? this is his contract year and he needs to pick it up, right?

[Larry Cook]

Will the utter lack of talent at Worcester keep Hang’em Chaim from moving some of the short timers from our roster?

[notin]

Oh no! He's in AA with a 1.65 WHIP. He would have been returned like Politi. You can let low upside relievers go.

 

His 11.1 K/9 is noteworthy.

 

Is 26yo Thad Ward a high upside or low upside reliever?

[mvp 78]

His 11.1 K/9 is noteworthy.

 

Is 26yo Thad Ward a high upside or low upside reliever?

 

Ward was actually a starter at one point. Wallace has always been a reliever and IS STRUGGLING IN AA. Ward is a far superior pitcher to Wallace. It's not even close.

[Maxbialystock]

I think Jansen was slated to pitch the ninth in a possible save situation , but Bautista had lost the lead and his pitch count was getting up there , so Dusty Baker made the switch. Also, I think you could make a case that Verdugo and/or Devers deserved a spot. Anyway, it was a good game. I enjoyed it. The All Star Game does not have the intense league rivalry it used to , but it is fun to watch. A lot of talent on display.

 

All good. The MLB All-Star game is the only one--vs the NFL and NBA All-Star games--in which the players are really trying.

[Maxbialystock]

CBS has these possible earliest ETAs on our injured players:

 

7/14 Pablo Reyes (may be DFA'd or traded) & R Bleier (might be helpful)

 

7/17 C Kluber (whoop-dee-freakin'- doo!)

 

7/18 G Whitlock (I hope so!)

 

7/21 J Schreiber (has been rehabbing) & R McGuire (bye bye Alfaro?)

 

7/22 K Ort (see Kluber comment)

 

8/1 (Trade Deadline) T Houck (We need him back)

8/1 T Story (may DH for a while, first)

 

8/2 C Sale (not counting on this.)

 

9/1 R Mondesi (unreal timing)

 

9/8 Z Kelly (probably too little, too late)

 

2024 W Mills

 

Man, that's a lot of players!

 

 

 

 

 

I love it. They could be wildly off/optimistic, but it's fun to consider. CBS are the only ones who've said anything about Whitlock. The Sox have said nothing. He dropped out after one inning, and has become MLB's best kept secret since.

 

Someone else said this--maybe you--but it's true: getting Kluber, Whitlock, and Houck back doesn't guarantee much. All three struggled as starters.

[moonslav59]

Will the utter lack of talent at Worcester keep Hang’em Chaim from moving some of the short timers from our roster?

 

Part of the "lack" is because so many players are or were already called up...

 

Duran

EValdez

Walter

Murphy

Chang

Reyes

D Ham

 

to a lesser extent

Jacques

Sherriff

Dermody

Littell

C Hamilton

Dalbec

Kelly

 

 

[moonslav59]

I love it. They could be wildly off/optimistic, but it's fun to consider. CBS are the only ones who've said anything about Whitlock. The Sox have said nothing. He dropped out after one inning, and has become MLB's best kept secret since.

 

Someone else said this--maybe you--but it's true: getting Kluber, Whitlock, and Houck back doesn't guarantee much. All three struggled as starters.

 

Whitlock and Houck have been very good for almost their whole time in MLB. The sample sizes are not really big, but they are substantial.

 

I'm hopeful one or both will help over the last 2 months of 2023- maybe one can pitch from the pen, if we add a SP'er or two or Sale comes back.

 

Schreiber has been rehabbing, so I think he comes back earlier than CBS claimed.

[moonslav59]

17 games to the deadline with just 2.5 SP'ers in the rotation (Bello, Paxton & Crawford.)

 

Can we make it that long, or do we try to spring an earlier deal?

[mvp 78]

Part of the "lack" is because so many players are or were already called up...

 

Duran

EValdez

Walter

Murphy

Chang

Reyes

D Ham

 

to a lesser extent

Jacques

Sherriff

Dermody

Littell

C Hamilton

Dalbec

Kelly

 

 

 

Most of the guys you mentioned aren't very good. Valdez is currently injured. Duran is called up. Murphy and Walter are in the BOS bullpen. None of the other names you mentioned offer any longterm solutions. If they left via MiLB FA, not much would be lost IMO. The talent is moving upwards through the system, but is currently in AA. The AAA squad is bad, especially the pitching.

[mvp 78]

Most of the guys you mentioned aren't very good. Valdez is currently injured. Duran is called up. Murphy and Walter are in the BOS bullpen. None of the other names you mentioned offer any longterm solutions. If they left via MiLB FA, not much would be lost IMO. The talent is moving upwards through the system, but is currently in AA. The AAA squad is bad, especially the pitching.

 

Aside from Rafaela and Abreu, there isn't much to take note of in WOO.

[moonslav59]

Most of the guys you mentioned aren't very good. Valdez is currently injured. Duran is called up. Murphy and Walter are in the BOS bullpen. None of the other names you mentioned offer any longterm solutions. If they left via MiLB FA, not much would be lost IMO. The talent is moving upwards through the system, but is currently in AA. The AAA squad is bad, especially the pitching.

 

Agreed. There is a big lack or talent at AAA. It's surprising they have won so many games.

 

My point was that "part" of the "lack" is because guys like Duran were or are called up, already. It was still lacking with them in AAA.

[mvp 78]

Agreed. There is a big lack or talent at AAA. It's surprising they have won so many games.

 

My point was that "part" of the "lack" is because guys like Duran were or are called up, already. It was still lacking with them in AAA.

 

They have a good AAAA team. Just because they are winning games in AAA doesn't mean they have a good pipeline of talent ready to help BOS. Rick Lancelotti was mashing for the PAWSOX but wasn't going to be doing anything of note for the big club unless there was some sort of Donner Party/Andes Flight/Yellow Jacket incident.

[moonslav59]

They have a good AAAA team. Just because they are winning games in AAA doesn't mean they have a good pipeline of talent ready to help BOS. Rick Lancelotti was mashing for the PAWSOX but wasn't going to be doing anything of note for the big club unless there was some sort of Donner Party/Andes Flight/Yellow Jacket incident.

 

Good point. I guess one could call Dalbec a great AAAA player. Fitzy fits the bill, too. Goodrum, Alfaro and Greg Allen to some extent.

 

Duran's call up hurt the AAA future pipeline, and Abreu and Rafaela seem like the only to everyday players that are close to helping the big club. Rosier, DHam and Scott may be long shots.

 

On the pitching side, Walter & Murphy are on the big club, now, but will likely be back and forth all season. Drohan has more to prove before he gets a chance. Long shots might be Denlinger, Van Belle and R Fernandez. Kelly might have been a help, but the injury hurt that chance.

 

SP's has these guys in AAA, next year:

 

Mata & Bernardino (MLB)

Drohan, Walter, Murphy, Liu, Van Belle, Kelly, Guerrero

Mayer, Yorke, Rafaela, Abreu, EValdez, DHam, Rosier, Dalbec

 

Those far away prospects are getting closer!

[mvp 78]

Good point. I guess one could call Dalbec a great AAAA player. Fitzy fits the bill, too. Goodrum, Alfaro and Greg Allen to some extent.

 

Duran's call up hurt the AAA future pipeline, and Abreu and Rafaela seem like the only to everyday players that are close to helping the big club. Rosier, DHam and Scott may be long shots.

 

On the pitching side, Walter & Murphy are on the big club, now, but will likely be back and forth all season. Drohan has more to prove before he gets a chance. Long shots might be Denlinger, Van Belle and R Fernandez. Kelly might have been a help, but the injury hurt that chance.

 

SP's has these guys in AAA, next year:

 

Mata & Bernardino (MLB)

Drohan, Walter, Murphy, Liu, Van Belle, Kelly, Guerrero

Mayer, Yorke, Rafaela, Abreu, EValdez, DHam, Rosier, Dalbec

 

Those far away prospects are getting closer!

 

Liu and Guerrero could turn into interesting late inning arms IMO. There's a lot of bats and not a lot of room on the BOS roster for them. Story's contract seemingly blocks one of the 2B/SS spots. Are they going to move Duran to LF? Will Verdugo be retained? Think outside the box and move Story to LF?

[moonslav59]

Liu and Guerrero could turn into interesting late inning arms IMO. There's a lot of bats and not a lot of room on the BOS roster for them. Story's contract seemingly blocks one of the 2B/SS spots. Are they going to move Duran to LF? Will Verdugo be retained? Think outside the box and move Story to LF?

 

The pipeline should be improved in AAA, next year, whether there is room for them on the ML roster, or not.

 

I can see Mayer pushing Story to 2B, but I can't see Yorke pushing him to LF.

 

The other middle IF'ers are too far away to worry about moving Story to the OF. Plus, Story is an excellent defensive 2Bman.

 

We don't have many everyday players going to free agency, this winter.

 

2024

Duvall: can be replaced by Refsnyder/Duran (OF: Yoshida, Dugo, Duran, Refsnyder and maybe Rafaela by mid 2024.)

 

2025

Dugo: Is an OF of Yoshida DH/LF, Refsnyder LF, Duran CF and Rafaela in RF good enough? (Abreu or Rosier in the mix?)

Turner: Can Yorke be good enough to DH? Maybe EValdez? (Jordan/Kavadas/Meidroth/Dalbec?)

 

That's not a lot of lost players for a 2 year period.

 

It's the pitching that is so unknown, but we do seem to be seeing more promising young pitchers coming up and also waiting in the wings, than we have seen in 5-10 years.

f

 

[mvp 78]

Guys that could be up by the end of 2025:

 

C: Scott, Hickey

IF: Mayer, Yorke, Valdez, Meidroth, Bonaci, Jordan

OF: Abreu, Anthony, Rafaela

 

Not all of them will be ready. However, we know that Devers, Story, Masataka, Casas, Wong, Refsnyder and Duran are most likely to be on the roster.

 

Opening Day Roster 2025?

C: Wong, Hickey

IF: Casas, Story, Mayer, Yorke, Devers, Scott/FA

OF: Masataka, Duran, Refsnyder, Abreu, Rafaela

[moonslav59]

Guys that could be up by the end of 2025:

 

C: Scott, Hickey

IF: Mayer, Yorke, Valdez, Meidroth, Bonaci, Jordan

OF: Abreu, Anthony, Rafaela

 

Not all of them will be ready. However, we know that Devers, Story, Masataka, Casas, Wong, Refsnyder and Duran are most likely to be on the roster.

 

Opening Day Roster 2025?

C: Wong, Hickey

IF: Casas, Story, Mayer, Yorke, Devers, Scott/FA

OF: Masataka, Duran, Refsnyder, Abreu, Rafaela

 

Sox Prospects has D Hamilton and Kavadas, as well as Lugo on the 2025 roster, but they are just listing who could be ready by then, in some ways.

 

McGuire is still under control in '25, too

[Hugh2]

Sox Prospects has D Hamilton and Kavadas, as well as Lugo on the 2025 roster, but they are just listing who could be ready by then, in some ways.

 

McGuire is still under control in '25, too

 

Future rosters assume guys under control. It can’t factor in future trades, free agent signings, or future draft picks.

[moonslav59]

Future rosters assume guys under control. It can’t factor in future trades, free agent signings, or future draft picks.

 

Yes. I understand what they do, and it is useful.

[notin]

Future rosters assume guys under control. It can’t factor in future trades, free agent signings, or future draft picks.

 

No Magic 8 Ball?

[Nick]

We are better off keeping this team together and go after the Japanese pitcher and retaining Paxton with a short term deal. A qualifying offer may do the trick.

 

Also add another smaller FA signing for a starting pitcher.

 

Story, Turner and Sale all return for 2024.

 

Kike and Duval will be gone.

 

I prefer staying the course with what we have this year. Just hope we are still in it as injured players return.

 

Do no blow up the farm for 2 month rentals.

Edited July 14, 2023 by Nick

[Hugh2]

We are better off keeping this team together and go after the Japanese pitcher and retaining Paxton with a short term deal. A qualifying offer may do the trick.

 

Also add another smaller FA signing for a starting pitcher.

 

Story, Turner and Sale all return for 2024.

 

Kike and Duval will be gone.

 

I prefer staying the course with what we have this year. Just hope we are still in it as injured players return.

 

Do no blow up the farm for 2 month rentals.

 

Insert many times over clapping emoji

[mvp 78]

We are better off keeping this team together and go after the Japanese pitcher and retaining Paxton with a short term deal. A qualifying offer may do the trick.

 

Also add another smaller FA signing for a starting pitcher.

 

Story, Turner and Sale all return for 2024.

 

Kike and Duval will be gone.

 

I prefer staying the course with what we have this year. Just hope we are still in it as injured players return.

 

Do no blow up the farm for 2 month rentals.

 

I don't think they should be buyers at all. Would Paxton take a QO? If he turns it down, it allows you to target a high value FA.

 

I hope that Henry has the stomach to start spending again once the young talent arrives, but I'm not convinced.

[mvp 78]

Sox Prospects has D Hamilton and Kavadas, as well as Lugo on the 2025 roster, but they are just listing who could be ready by then, in some ways.

 

McGuire is still under control in '25, too

 

Lugo has been horrible. I'm not sure Kavadas gets passed AAA. Hamilton is a useful bench piece at best, but needs to work on other positions.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think they should be buyers at all. Would Paxton take a QO? If he turns it down, it allows you to target a high value FA.

 

I hope that Henry has the stomach to start spending again once the young talent arrives, but I'm not convinced.

 

The $313.5 million extension for Devers is a start.

[mvp 78]

The $313.5 million extension for Devers is a start.

 

So to get him to spend, he needs to be made to look foolish and be put over a barrel. How often can we do that?

[Bellhorn04]

So to get him to spend, he needs to be made to look foolish and be put over a barrel. How often can we do that?

 

As many times as it takes!

[moonslav59]

JH will always want to reset, soon after spending bigly, so keep that in mind when looking for long term sustainable plans.