A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

When Story comes back then really either Duvall or Kike has to come off the roster

 

I think we trade Duvall. He'll bring back more than Kike, and we still need ML middle infield depth.

 

The other option could be to trade Arroyo, but he's got longer team control.

 

That being said, if we pay all of Kike's contract, someone might give us a promising low level prospect.

[mvp 78]

People will whine either way, is what I meant. He should just play him.

 

He should just bench Arroyo instead against LHP.

 

@itsbrianbarrett

Arroyo

 

2023

 

v. Righties

 

.293/.330/.425/.755

 

v. Lefties

 

.196/.211/.357/.568

 

50% whiff rate against breaking balls

[Bellhorn04]

I think we trade Duvall. He'll bring back more than Kike, and we still need ML middle infield depth.

 

The other option could be to trade Arroyo, but he's got longer team control.

 

That being said, if we pay all of Kike's contract, someone might give us a promising low level prospect.

 

They're not trading Duvall unless we're toast.

[mvp 78]

I think we trade Duvall. He'll bring back more than Kike, and we still need ML middle infield depth.

 

The other option could be to trade Arroyo, but he's got longer team control.

 

That being said, if we pay all of Kike's contract, someone might give us a promising low level prospect.

 

Who cares about team control for a guy like Arroyo? In a career year, he maybe gets 1 fWAR. Not worth worrying about the team control IMO.

[mvp 78]

They're not trading Duvall unless we're toast.

 

I'd trade him if the return is decent (i.e. a top 20 prospect).

[Bellhorn04]

I'd trade him if the return is decent (i.e. a top 20 prospect).

 

If we're toast.

[moonslav59]

If we're still in it, I don't see trading Duvall to clear a logjam.

 

The idea would be to trade him for a player at a position of higher need, but that might be hard to do. Usually, Duvall would be traded for a prospect.

 

Maybe a 3 way trade?

 

Duvall to team A

Prospect to team B (We could even add prospects like Dalbec and Murphy.)

SP to Red Sox

[Bellhorn04]

So much cleverness.

 

A team that is still in it doesn't trade a guy like Duvall.

[moonslav59]

Who cares about team control for a guy like Arroyo? In a career year, he maybe gets 1 fWAR. Not worth worrying about the team control IMO.

 

He'd be gone, already, if we didn't care.

 

Our middle infield is injury prone and lacks depth, now and next year. Kike and Mondesi will be gone. EValdez is not a good defender. It looks like DHam isn't either. I'd keep Arroyo, at least until Yorke or Mayer are in the mix.

 

Of course, signing a cheap 2Bman next winter is an option, too.

[Dipre]

So much cleverness.

 

A team that is still in it doesn't trade a guy like Duvall.

 

I'd trade him for pitching help.

[Hugh2]

I think we trade Duvall. He'll bring back more than Kike, and we still need ML middle infield depth.

 

The other option could be to trade Arroyo, but he's got longer team control.

 

That being said, if we pay all of Kike's contract, someone might give us a promising low level prospect.

 

I would keep the better player, regardless of return. It's not like the return is going to be a big difference or anything great for either player.

[mvp 78]

If we're toast.

 

If they are 5 games out of the WC.

[Bellhorn04]

If they are 5 games out of the WC.

 

That's pretty toasty, yes.

[mvp 78]

He'd be gone, already, if we didn't care.

 

Our middle infield is injury prone and lacks depth, now and next year. Kike and Mondesi will be gone. EValdez is not a good defender. It looks like DHam isn't either. I'd keep Arroyo, at least until Yorke or Mayer are in the mix.

 

Of course, signing a cheap 2Bman next winter is an option, too.

 

Story is the 2b going forward. Mayer/cheap FA is the SS.

[mvp 78]

That's pretty toasty, yes.

 

Right now, they are 2 games back. I'd consider dangling Duvall and seeing if you are bowled over with an offer, but if it's not a really great one (which I highly doubt it would be since he's not swinging it like early April) it's not worth dealing him.

 

Since 6/9: 47 wRC+

Since 6/25: 67 wRC+

 

Maybe it doesn't matter since he hasn't been that good since coming back anyway?

[moonslav59]

Story is the 2b going forward. Mayer/cheap FA is the SS.

 

I'm talking opening day 2024.

 

I'm all for Story at 2B, but Yorke will not be the back up 2Bman April '24. Mayer will not be the opening day SS in '24.

 

Right now, our 2024 middle IF looks like this (with no outside additions:)

 

Story

Chang

EValdez

D Hamilton

 

I'm not all ga-ga over Arroyo, but it makes sense keeping him over Kike. If we traded him or even DFA'd him, I would not shed a single tear.

[moonslav59]

Right now, they are 2 games back. I'd consider dangling Duvall and seeing if you are bowled over with an offer, but if it's not a really great one (which I highly doubt it would be since he's not swinging it like early April) it's not worth dealing him.

 

Since 6/9: 47 wRC+

Since 6/25: 67 wRC+

 

Maybe it doesn't matter since he hasn't been that good since coming back anyway?

 

How much value do GMs place on a one month sample size?

 

It does matter, but how much? I guess one could go back to the start of 2022 and see a bigger sample size: .726 in 443 PAs.

 

I do think, if Duvall is still slumping by Aug 1st, his value will be pretty low, even if we pay his full remaining contract.

Edited July 10, 2023 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The best chance for the Red Sox to make a legitimate run this season would seem to be an acceptable recovery by Story; he doesn't have to be a star or play commensurate with his salary -- just enough to be a decent MLB starting infielder.

 

Story at SS and Arroyo at 2B are probably the best DP combo, at least both have been semi-regulars at those positions... not just fill-ins.

 

As for Duvall -- he is a rare righty power bat on the roster, even if off the bench. No one is replacing that, unless Story returns as the Bionic Man, or Aquaman gets so hot they have to keep him around.

 

If they dump Kike, they can't dump Duvall... because there's no else even close to slamming 25 HRs from the right side, like Kike did only two years ago.

Edited July 10, 2023 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[mvp 78]

@SPChrisHatfield

One interesting note as we look at potential Red Sox moves after the break: On his rehab assignment, Pablo Reyes DHed once and played 2B three times. He did not play shortstop. Not really sure what to make of that given that it seems like he's getting activated after the break.

 

Arroyo DFA

[Bellhorn04]

Right now, they are 2 games back. I'd consider dangling Duvall and seeing if you are bowled over with an offer, but if it's not a really great one (which I highly doubt it would be since he's not swinging it like early April) it's not worth dealing him.

 

Since 6/9: 47 wRC+

Since 6/25: 67 wRC+

 

Maybe it doesn't matter since he hasn't been that good since coming back anyway?

 

Last 4 games he has 8 total bases. Maybe he's starting to come around.

[notin]

The best chance for the Red Sox to make a legitimate run this season would seem to be an acceptable recovery by Story; he doesn't have to be a star or play commensurate with his salary -- just enough to be a decent MLB starting infielder.

 

Story at SS and Arroyo at 2B are probably the best DP combo, at least both have been semi-regulars at those positions... not just fill-ins.

 

As for Duvall -- he is a rare righty power bat on the roster, even if off the bench. No one is replacing that, unless Story returns as the Bionic Man, or Aquaman gets so hot they have to keep him around.

 

If they dump Kike, they can't dump Duvall... because there's no else even close to slamming 25 HRs from the right side, like Kike did only two years ago.

 

As deserving as it would be, they are not DFAing Kike…

[notin]

@SPChrisHatfield

One interesting note as we look at potential Red Sox moves after the break: On his rehab assignment, Pablo Reyes DHed once and played 2B three times. He did not play shortstop. Not really sure what to make of that given that it seems like he's getting activated after the break.

 

Arroyo DFA

 

More likely Reyes DFA…

[mvp 78]

More likely Reyes DFA…

 

As deserving as it would be, they are not DFAing Pablo...

[notin]

As deserving as it would be, they are not DFAing Pablo...

 

But you think they are DFAing Arroyo?

 

I think they DFA Reyes because he does stand a decent chance of clearing waivers unclaimed and cannot refuse assignment..

[moonslav59]

But you think they are DFAing Arroyo?

 

I think they DFA Reyes because he does stand a decent chance of clearing waivers unclaimed and cannot refuse assignment..

 

Maybe one gets traded.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Sox have little right-handed power -- by design -- because "the roster is the roster" and was, going into the season.

 

Bloom rolled the dice on Kike bouncing back (not free-falling), Duvall having an entire healthy season, and Story earning some of his overpaid salary. Turner the Pro Hitter and his plate coverage lends more to spray than slug.

 

Boston of course needs to add at least one authentic starting pitcher, but the club could really use a Jorge Soler type, if Bloom would only part with another Aldo Ramirez. But forget about the actual Soler -- he's got another year on his contract, and Miami's got the second-most wins in the NL...

[Dipre]

Turner is slugging .462 with 32 XBH. What are you even on about?

[mvp 78]

Turner is slugging .462 with 32 XBH. What are you even on about?

 

Now that Turner has a higher fWAR than JD, they have to find someone else to pine over.

[moonslav59]

Now that Turner has a higher fWAR than JD, they have to find someone else to pine over.

 

I thought they decided on Nate and Wacha.

 

The silence is deafening on Bogey, too.

[moonslav59]

Sherriff elected free agency after passing through waivers.

Caleb Hamilton did not. He's back with Woo.