A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Duran Is The Man]

I thought they decided on Nate and Wacha.

 

The silence is deafening on Bogey, too.

 

Nate and Wacha were available at a reasonable price. i wish we still had Bogey but what the Padres paid -and i think everyone would agree- was just plain stupid money.

[mvp 78]

I thought they decided on Nate and Wacha.

 

The silence is deafening on Bogey, too.

 

Concerning that I've had to read about Strahm again on this board today...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I thought they decided on Nate and Wacha.

 

The silence is deafening on Bogey, too.

 

Who is they? Talksox has been talking roster changes, and some posters brought up DFAing their least favorites. My posts today are about not dumping guys like Duvall or Kike, since they're a few of the very few players on the roster with any RH power.

 

I have nothing against Turner, and even called him a professional hitter, but it might help boost a team's chances to add a regular righty power bat to go along with 162-game average of 19 homers over his 15-year career. BTW, anyone who read my posts about JD Martinez the past few years knows how cooked I thought he looked in Boston, constantly flailing at sliders out of the zone. I'm glad for him that he has thrived with a change of scenery, because I'll always remember him the missing link in the line-up that drove the 2018 champs.

 

Why keep bringing up Bogaerts? He's not having an All-Star year, but he'd still be third on the Sox in HRs. I wouldn't have paid him for 11 years, either. But is there any doubt with him at shortstop all season -- instead of Kike -- that Boston would be in third place and in command of a playoff spot right now?

[Bellhorn04]

Why keep bringing up Bogaerts? He's not having an All-Star year, but he'd still be third on the Sox in HRs. I wouldn't have paid him for 11 years, either. But is there any doubt with him at shortstop all season -- instead of Kike -- that Boston would be in third place and in command of a playoff spot right now?

 

He'd also be 3rd in fWAR among position players, behind only Duran and Verdugo.

[Bellhorn04]

Concerning that I've had to read about Strahm again on this board today...

 

Yes, because notin won't stop re-litigating an April/22 game in which Matt Barnes gave up a walk.

[mvp 78]

Who is they? Talksox has been talking roster changes, and some posters brought up DFAing their least favorites. My posts today are about not dumping guys like Duvall or Kike, since they're a few of the very few players on the roster with any RH power.

 

I have nothing against Turner, and even called him a professional hitter, but it might help boost a team's chances to add a regular righty power bat to go along with 162-game average of 19 homers over his 15-year career. BTW, anyone who read my posts about JD Martinez the past few years knows how cooked I thought he looked in Boston, constantly flailing at sliders out of the zone. I'm glad for him that he has thrived with a change of scenery, because I'll always remember him the missing link in the line-up that drove the 2018 champs.

 

Why keep bringing up Bogaerts? He's not having an All-Star year, but he'd still be third on the Sox in HRs. I wouldn't have paid him for 11 years, either. But is there any doubt with him at shortstop all season -- instead of Kike -- that Boston would be in third place and in command of a playoff spot right now?

 

Soler has been a mediocre to poor player for all of his career except for 2019 and 2023. From 2021 - 2022 he had a wRC+ of 99. Soler and Turner had the same amount of HR's in that timespan. Just swapping '23 Turner for '23 Soler doesn't impact the Red Sox in any meaningful way.

[mvp 78]

Yes, because notin won't stop re-litigating an April/22 game in which Matt Barnes gave up a walk.

 

That game holds considerable emotional impact for him.

[notin]

Yes, because notin won't stop re-litigating an April/22 game in which Matt Barnes gave up a walk.

 

Fairly certain you mentioned the game and included why Barnes was the right call. Sorry for bringing in all the reality…

[Dipre]

Barnes sucks. Next please.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just swapping '23 Turner for '23 Soler doesn't impact the Red Sox in any meaningful way.

 

No post even came close to suggesting such a swap. Mine said we needed to add a bat.

 

Sorry for bringing up Soler. I'd say we need to add a bat similar to the deadline when we got Schwarber, but then someone would jump all over the fact that he's a lefty. We just may have enough southpaw sticks in '23.

[Bellhorn04]

Fairly certain you mentioned the game and included why Barnes was the right call. Sorry for bringing in all the reality…

 

The reality was he was the 6th reliever used, faced 2 batters, walked one and struck out one, didn't give up the game-winning sac fly, wasn't charged with an earned run, and based on this you're trying to hang Cora for using him in an extra inning game.

[dgalehouse]

I can't blame Cora for using Barnes, Strahm or whoever. He did his best in mixing and matching with what was a poorly constructed bullpen. Often it didn't work. Much better situation this year.

[Bellhorn04]

I can't blame Cora for using Barnes, Strahm or whoever. He did his best in mixing and matching with what was a poorly constructed bullpen. Often it didn't work. Much better situation this year.

 

I've been meaning to start a thread about closers, borrowing your phrase "Closin' ain't easy" as the title. One of these days I'll get it going.

[Maxbialystock]

Who is they? Talksox has been talking roster changes, and some posters brought up DFAing their least favorites. My posts today are about not dumping guys like Duvall or Kike, since they're a few of the very few players on the roster with any RH power.

 

I have nothing against Turner, and even called him a professional hitter, but it might help boost a team's chances to add a regular righty power bat to go along with 162-game average of 19 homers over his 15-year career. BTW, anyone who read my posts about JD Martinez the past few years knows how cooked I thought he looked in Boston, constantly flailing at sliders out of the zone. I'm glad for him that he has thrived with a change of scenery, because I'll always remember him the missing link in the line-up that drove the 2018 champs.

 

Why keep bringing up Bogaerts? He's not having an All-Star year, but he'd still be third on the Sox in HRs. I wouldn't have paid him for 11 years, either. But is there any doubt with him at shortstop all season -- instead of Kike -- that Boston would be in third place and in command of a playoff spot right now?

 

All good stuff, but the real problem with this team is pitching and the fact that right now the Sox have just three starters--Bello, Paxton, and Crawford--and are unlikely to get back Sale, Houck, Whitlock, Kluber, or Pivetta before August. Pivetta is not on the IL, but Cora believes he is best used in long relief.

 

Also, I don't see much difference between being in 3d place with Bogey or 5th place without him. I hope getting Story back--at SS or 2B--will help. That was the plan all along.

[moonslav59]

All good stuff, but the real problem with this team is pitching and the fact that right now the Sox have just three starters--Bello, Paxton, and Crawford--and are unlikely to get back Sale, Houck, Whitlock, Kluber, or Pivetta before August. Pivetta is not on the IL, but Cora believes he is best used in long relief.

 

Also, I don't see much difference between being in 3d place with Bogey or 5th place without him. I hope getting Story back--at SS or 2B--will help. That was the plan all along.

 

I agree. We can guess we will not be trading away a bunch of top prospects for a bunch of players, so my guess is, if we are buyers, we will likely focus on 1 or 2 players, and they should be pitcher(s.)

 

We should be getting some SP'ers back, and maybe Schreiber for the pen, but I'm thinking SP'ers. If we end up squeezing Whitlock, Houck or Crawford to the pen, then great!

 

Here are the team positional rankings by fWAR:

 

29th SS (Story has to be counted on, here)

27th 2B (Arroyo, Kike, Chang. I doubt we trade for MI help.)

20th SP

20th C (We will ride it out with Wong & Alfaro/McGuire

 

14th 3B

13th RP

11th 1B

9th RF

6th CF

5th LF

2nd DH

 

We need to trade something to get something. We can try to take on some salary, as long as we don't go over the line.

 

Possible trade candidates might be Duvall and Kike, and we could include some cash to up the return.

 

Dalbec should be on the block, but he's not bringing back a plus SP'er, and may only just barely sweeten any package.

 

We will likely have to trade one or two from:

 

Rafaela

EValdez, Yorke or Romero

Drohan, Wikelman, Mata, Walter, Murphy or Perales

Bonaci, Jordan & Paulino

 

 

 

[notin]

The reality was he was the 6th reliever used, faced 2 batters, walked one and struck out one, didn't give up the game-winning sac fly, wasn't charged with an earned run, and based on this you're trying to hang Cora for using him in an extra inning game.

 

 

And yet it was his second lowest WPA of that year, just behind the previous extra inning game.

 

The way you retell it, he was an innocent bystander and just in the wrong place at the wrong time…

[Bellhorn04]

And yet it was his second lowest WPA of that year, just behind the previous extra inning game.

 

The way you retell it, he was an innocent bystander and just in the wrong place at the wrong time…

 

Now you're talking about a different game. The game against the Jays was the first extra inning game.

 

Anyway, I think it's time to drop this. I'm a Cora fanboy, as I've admitted. I'm surprised at how much you're blaming him for using Barnes as the 6th, 5th and 5th reliever in games. But we all have our opinions and complaints. Hell, I'm still not convinced Reese McGuire's inflated CERA isn't indicative of a real problem.

[notin]

Now you're talking about a different game. The game against the Jays was the first extra inning game.

 

Anyway, I think it's time to drop this. I'm a Cora fanboy, as I've admitted. I'm surprised at how much you're blaming him for using Barnes as the 6th, 5th and 5th reliever in games. But we all have our opinions and complaints. Hell, I'm still not convinced Reese McGuire's inflated CERA isn't indicative of a real problem.

 

“Different game” has been your take all along. It went from “there was no one else left” to “how bad was he really?”

 

The facts are simple; Barnes had been struggling since mid-August the year before, and Cora repeatedly kept using him as if he wasn’t. He pitched almost exclusively in the 8th inning or later last year.

 

We all wanted him to bounce back. And a couple outings in his old role just to see made sense. I know as a fan we are going to give up on a role for any player quicker than a manager should. But Cora just never seems to until it costs multiple games. It’s like Kike at shortstop this year…

[Bellhorn04]

“Different game” has been your take all along. It went from “there was no one else left” to “how bad was he really?”

 

What? In that Jays game I said he was the 6th reliever used and I said he only gave up a walk. Both indisputable facts. No idea what your first sentence means.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I know as a fan we are going to give up on a role for any player quicker than a manager should. But Cora just never seems to until it costs multiple games. It’s like Kike at shortstop this year…

 

Good points both, but we know good managers try to give their guys ample opportunities to bounce back, find their groove, figure things out, etc. They're usually looking at the long game, and know they need to see if players can improve or be trusted to help out later on, as well.

 

The thing is, we'll never know how much input/influence/orders come from "the top." Franchy couldn't play outfield, but who specifically made him a first baseman? Who put Arroyo in RF? We know Bloom acquired Schwarber with no place to play him (even at DH), but who shoehorned him into first base... or did the CBO and skipper just look at each other, and shrug: "He can't be worse than Franchy..."

[Bellhorn04]

Good points both, but we know good managers try to give their guys ample opportunities to bounce back, find their groove, figure things out, etc. They're usually looking at the long game, and know they need to see if players can improve or be trusted to help out later on, as well.

 

The thing is, we'll never know how much input/influence/orders come from "the top." Franchy couldn't play outfield, but who specifically made him a first baseman? Who put Arroyo in RF? We know Bloom acquired Schwarber with no place to play him (even at DH), but who shoehorned him into first base... or did the CBO and skipper just look at each other, and shrug: "He can't be worse than Franchy..."

 

And look at Duvall. He struggled mightily after coming back from the IL, but he might be starting to get it back now. And his season OPS stands at .850. But some here wanted to bury him on the bench.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And look at Duvall. He struggled mightily after coming back from the IL, but he might be starting to get it back now. And his season OPS stands at .850. But some here wanted to bury him on the bench.

 

Of course -- fans want to win now, today, especially the day they pay for tickets to see maybe their one game in person for the year.

 

Bloom and Cora know their club is too lopsided with lefty sticks, and that a legitimate playoff run would be greatly enhanced with a consistent righty power threat behind Devers. And since Duvall is already here and paid for, it would naturally be ideal if he could regain that opening week stardom... if his wrist will let him regain his timing.

 

Meanwhile, maybe Bloom is working OT trying to pry southpaw JP Sears from the Oakland Lost Paychecks before another wild card rival does...

[notin]

Of course -- fans want to win now, today, especially the day they pay for tickets to see maybe their one game in person for the year.

 

Bloom and Cora know their club is too lopsided with lefty sticks, and that a legitimate playoff run would be greatly enhanced with a consistent righty power threat behind Devers. And since Duvall is already here and paid for, it would naturally be ideal if he could regain that opening week stardom... if his wrist will let him regain his timing.

 

Meanwhile, maybe Bloom is working OT trying to pry southpaw JP Sears from the Oakland Lost Paychecks before another wild card rival does...

 

It’s hard to say what Oakland would want. During their last fire sale, they prioritized quantity over quality. But Sears has 5+ years of control and they’re probably not so likely to move pre-arb actual talent so readily worthy being blown away. Per BTV, a package of Romero, Walter and Perales works. But a lot depends on their evaluation of those players, and how readily they even consider trading Sears.

 

That’s why I think Blackburn is more likely. He’s not as good but only has 1+ year left. He’s only making $1.9mill per B-R, which seems a little low and he’s not a guy that excites anyone. But he’s far easier to get without really breaking the bank. I think he at least checks a couple boxes and like it or not, actually represents an upgrade. I mean, if he keeps Kluber out of the rotation, he’s more than done his job…

[moonslav59]

 

The facts are simple; Barnes had been struggling since mid-August the year before, and Cora repeatedly kept using him as if he wasn’t. He pitched almost exclusively in the 8th inning or later last year.

 

 

He was used 15 out of his first 28 games in the 8th and later to start the season. Honestly, who else did we have? Cora was trying anybody and everybody, and almost all failed.

 

After August 24th, he was used exclusively in the 8th or later (last 15 appearances.)

1.26 ERA (3.18 FIP)

.635 OPS Against

14.1 IP

13 H

6BB

10K

 

Maybe Cora was hoping this Barnes would materialize earlier. He did not.

 

I'm not sure why there is such a big stink over 3 games. Is it your position that after 2 extra inning melt downs, he should not have been given a chance in the third? If so, we are now talking about one game choice by Cora.

 

Really?

[moonslav59]

And look at Duvall. He struggled mightily after coming back from the IL, but he might be starting to get it back now. And his season OPS stands at .850. But some here wanted to bury him on the bench.

 

The same people who want Duvall benched, also wanted Duran benched (or much worse), last year and not given another chance, this year.

 

Going by just "what have you done for me, lately" is not a winning strategy.

 

It matters but is not everything.

[Bellhorn04]

He was used 15 out of his first 28 games in the 8th and later to start the season. Honestly, who else did we have? Cora was trying anybody and everybody, and almost all failed.

 

After August 24th, he was used exclusively in the 8th or later (last 15 appearances.)

1.26 ERA (3.18 FIP)

.635 OPS Against

14.1 IP

13 H

6BB

10K

 

Maybe Cora was hoping this Barnes would materialize earlier. He did not.

 

I'm not sure why there is such a big stink over 3 games. Is it your position that after 2 extra inning melt downs, he should not have been given a chance in the third? If so, we are now talking about one game choice by Cora.

 

Really?

 

And here are Barnes's OPSa by month for 2022:

 

Mar-Apr .633

May .909

June-July IL

Aug .589

Sep .590

 

So May was the one awful month, and then he went on the IL.

[moonslav59]

It’s hard to say what Oakland would want. During their last fire sale, they prioritized quantity over quality. But Sears has 5+ years of control and they’re probably not so likely to move pre-arb actual talent so readily worthy being blown away. Per BTV, a package of Romero, Walter and Perales works. But a lot depends on their evaluation of those players, and how readily they even consider trading Sears.

 

That’s why I think Blackburn is more likely. He’s not as good but only has 1+ year left. He’s only making $1.9mill per B-R, which seems a little low and he’s not a guy that excites anyone. But he’s far easier to get without really breaking the bank. I think he at least checks a couple boxes and like it or not, actually represents an upgrade. I mean, if he keeps Kluber out of the rotation, he’s more than done his job…

 

I think we avoid giving good prospects for a 2 month rental, so Blackburn looks like the type Bloom might target.

 

I'd love to get Sears, but the A's might wait on him, as his trade value could easily rise, significantly over the next 2-3 years.

 

There has been talk of our offense being unbalanced with too many LHBs. I seriously doubt we look to trade Dugo or Duran, and before anybody jumps on me, I'm not saying I want to trade this guy, but trading Casas would improve 2 or more positions on defense (1B & LF.) It would allow Duran and Duvall to play nearly everyday, while allowing Refsnyder to keep playing vs LHPs:

 

vs RHPs/LHPs:

 

C: Wong (McGuire/Alfaro)

1B: Turner (Dalbec?)

2B: Arroyo/Kike

SS: Story (Chang)

3B: Devers

LF: Duvall

CF: Duran *

RF: Dugo *

DH: Yoshida *

*Refsnyder would play vs all LHPs by "resting" one from Duran or Dugo or Yoshida every third time.

 

We could get a much better player by trading Casas. We could add more to the package and maybe get a solid SP'er with 3+ years of control.

 

Again, I'm not "for" trading Casas or "giving up on him." He has great value for a reason. We have Turner for another year and maybe Jordan, Kavadas or someone else that can be moved to 1B within our system that could be ready by 2025.

 

 

[moonslav59]

And here are Barnes's OPSa by month for 2022:

 

Mar-Apr .633

May .909

June-July IL

Aug .589

Sep .590

 

So May was the one awful month, and then he went on the IL.

 

How many other 2022 Sox relievers had better numbers?

 

Strahm and cricketts.

 

[moonslav59]

Back to the 2023 Red Sox...

 

To me, the results of this season will once again, come down to returning pitchers and how well they do, when they return. The return of Story is also important, but the rotation injury returns are the key.

 

Story should help the offense, as Chang is hitting .499. His defense should also be a plus.

Adding Schreiber back to the pen should be a big plus. (He is rehabbing now in AAA.)

 

Now, to the rotation. We all would prefer some or all of these 3 to be in the pen: Whitlock, Houck, Pivetta and Crawford. The problem is, we need 3 starts to add to the 2 man rotation we have right now: Bello & Paxton. I'm done counting on Sale to return, but if he does, I feel better about his chances at being successful. We need to plan on him not coming back, and if he does, we'll get a nice boost to the pen by moving one of our starters to long relief. I'm not counting Kluber as an option, and I hope Bloom & Cora aren't either.

 

3 slots and 4 pitchers...

 

Whitlock's return is sketchy. He has been inconsistent, when he has pitched. The guy has some nasty stuff and has proven he can get guys out, but he'll need to start showing he can, again.

 

Houck's return is more certain, but there is talk of his role being in relief. I'm not sure we can do that, unless we trade for a SP'er.

 

Crawford seems like long relief is his strength, as with Houck, Whitlock and Pivetta, too, but he might have to stay as a SP'er, unless we add 2.

 

Pivetta seems like the logical choice to return to the rotation, but it seems the top brass is set on keeping him in the pen. He's doing great, there, so who am I to think I know better?

 

Murphy and Walter may very well be flashes in the pan, but one may end up helping- just not as a SP'er, IMO. I'm not sure we can continue this "opener" idea much longer and count on making the playoffs.

 

IMO, we need to trade for a solid SP'er. Solid ones do not come cheap. I'm not for trading top young talent for a rental, and I doubt Bloom is thinking that way, either. The most he's ever given up was Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber. That could change this year, and he may be told to do it. One option might be to trade for a salary dump pitcher who is still pretty good. It's hard to know how much we can pay without going over the tax line. That number varies from site to site, but it is probably between $5-9M. Since deadline trades will involve just paying 2 months salary, we can probably afford a pitcher in the $15-$25M pay range, assuming we only add one salary booster. We could also trade someone like Duvall and add $2.5M to the till.

 

I'd prefer we add a solid pitcher with longer team control, or one who agrees to an extension, but they will cost way more in prospects. Personally, I think we are at the time to make a big push for top contention. If not at this deadline, then this winter, for sure. I'm not sure the Sox see it this way, but adding a long term pitcher, at the deadline, makes a lot of sense, even if we dip into the top prospect pool.

 

I guess this can be discussed on the trade deadline thread.

[Bellhorn04]

A deadline trade for a pitcher with a lot of years of control left is pretty rare, I would say. Last year the Mariners traded for Castillo and then signed him to an extension, which is a different way to go about it.