A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Nick]

We have an offense that can comeback especially at home but SP can't contine to put us in a hole to start the game.

 

That was Pivetta's problem.

 

At least with Houck you can always have Kutter, Winck or now Pivetta to piggyback.

[moonslav59]

When Duvall comes back, it's basically a Duvall/Casas platoon.

 

LHP:

Duvall LF

Turner 1B

Yoshida DH

RHP:

Casas 1B

Turner DH

Yoshida LF

 

It will be a while before Duvall is back, and a lot can change, especially with Casas, Duran and others.

 

I'm not sure Duvall deserves to be platooned.

 

Career

.758 v R

.781 v L

 

His big 2021 season: A MEGA Reverse split...

.827 v R (413 PA)

.610 v L ((142 PA)

 

Big differential in 2022- the other way:

.620 v R (237)

.844 v L (78)

 

2021-2023

(out of 200+ batters with 600+ PAs v R)

76th Duvall at .784

(out of 224 batters with 220+ PAs v L)

145th Duvall at .730

[mvp 78]

I’m not so sure when Duvall comes back he’ll just basically be a platoon with Casas. I don’t think Duran has fully locked down CF yet, and there is still plenty of time until Duvall comes back that things may look different than they do today. Like they always say that things usually work themselves out.

 

The scenario I described was "what if everything is going well and we need to squeeze everyone in."

[moonslav59]

The scenario I described was "what if everything is going well and we need to squeeze everyone in."

 

Well, if everything is going well, Duvall is hitting righties like he did in 2021 and is a FT'er.

[notin]

When Duvall comes back, it's basically a Duvall/Casas platoon.

 

LHP:

Duvall LF

Turner 1B

Yoshida DH

RHP:

Casas 1B

Turner DH

Yoshida LF

 

Why platoon?

 

Casas has options. Someone needs to get demoted…

[moonslav59]

Why platoon?

 

Casas has options. Someone needs to get demoted…

 

We were assuming everyone is still doing well.

 

They might demote Casas to avoid trading Arroyo.

 

Duvall replaces Tapia.

 

Story replaces Reyes or Arroyo.

 

(Arroyo replaces Reyes or is traded.)

 

Why demote Casas?

[mvp 78]

Why platoon?

 

Casas has options. Someone needs to get demoted…

 

Story > Reyes

Duvall > Tapia

[mvp 78]

Why platoon?

 

Casas has options. Someone needs to get demoted…

 

Platooning is the Cora way.

[mvp 78]

We were assuming everyone is still doing well.

 

They might demote Casas to avoid trading Arroyo.

 

Duvall replaces Tapia.

 

Story replaces Reyes or Arroyo.

 

(Arroyo replaces Reyes or is traded.)

 

Why demote Casas?

 

Casas would go down and just mash in AAA. He would learn nothing. It would be a waste. You have to keep him up here.

[moonslav59]

Story > Reyes

Duvall > Tapia

 

The question might come down to Arroyo vs Reyes.

[moonslav59]

We are not that far from June 1st:

 

In the majors, Alfaro would earn a $2 million base salary. He has opt-outs in his deal on June 1 and July 1.

 

2023 at WOO (148 AB)

 

.345 6 29

.381 OBP

.574 SLG

.956 OPS

 

McGuire has no options.

Wong will not be demoted.

[Old Red]

Casas would go down and just mash in AAA. He would learn nothing. It would be a waste. You have to keep him up here.

 

Casas would have to swing the damm bat first. He stands there to often watching called third strikes go by, and looking for a walk instead of trying to get a hit.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Casas would go down and just mash in AAA. He would learn nothing. It would be a waste. You have to keep him up here.

 

Especially since he's the best defensive first baseman on a team with very dubious infield arms. Sacrificing what should be automatic outs at first can really drag on cranky old starting pitchers or already overused relievers.

[Nick]

Casas would have to swing the damm bat first. He stands there to often watching called third strikes go by, and looking for a walk instead of trying to get a hit.

 

I agree. One thing to be selective, another to be just passive. You have to take 3 healthy swings. You can't hit with 2 strikes on you every at bat, as he seems to do often.

 

He plays a hitting position. He needs to hit. Not walk.

[Maxbialystock]

Platooning is the Cora way.

 

Sometimes. This season it's pretty hard to argue that Cora has mismanaged the lineup.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think when Duvall returns four of the Sox best hitters--Dugo, Duvall, Duran, and Yoshida--will all be outfielders. My guess is that Yoshida might become the semi-regular DH, Turner take over at 1B and Casas platoon with Turner or whatever.

[Maxbialystock]

Especially since he's the best defensive first baseman on a team with very dubious infield arms. Sacrificing what should be automatic outs at first can really drag on cranky old starting pitchers or already overused relievers.

 

I don't agree Turner is a bust at 1B. His DWAR is -0.2 and Casas's is -0.6.

 

I am also a firm believer that you are better off going with the best bats vice the best gloves. The Sox routinely dump great fielding shortstops in pursuit of good hitting ones--and it has worked well.

 

In 2013 the Sox had one brilliant SS in Jose Iglesias and one pretty good one in Stephen Drew. But Xander Bogaerts took over the very next year at age 22 and stayed the Sox regular SS nine straight years.

 

JBJ in CF was kind of an exception, but he too had a couple good hitting seasons (2015 and 2016) and semi-adequate ones (2017 and 2018).

[Old Red]

Sometimes. This season it's pretty hard to argue that Cora has mismanaged the lineup.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think when Duvall returns four of the Sox best hitters--Dugo, Duvall, Duran, and Yoshida--will all be outfielders. My guess is that Yoshida might become the semi-regular DH, Turner take over at 1B and Casas platoon with Turner or whatever.

Who knows what will happen, but I’m not counting on Duran to keep hitting in the mid to high 300’s, and I’m not counting on Duvall to pick up where he left off with the bat. If they happen great, but I’m just not counting on it.

[Nick]

Stat shows Red Sox’ Connor Wong is one of top MLB defenders at any position

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/05/stat-shows-red-sox-connor-wong-is-one-of-top-mlb-defenders-at-any-position.html

 

He's with the Sox for 6 years. Betts trade is looking better each day.

[Randy Red Sox]

let's wait till everyone is healthy at the same time which is still a ways off. baseball has a funny way of changing quickly.

[vegasbob]

Casas (23) is somewhat of a dilemma, as was Dalbec until his age 27 year (2023) showed he was not likely to improve. Triston's approach at bat has led to more walks (24) than hits(22), but 6 of those hits were HR's , yet the rbi total is only 15 . The low count on doubles (4) indicate that he doesn't hit the gaps nor corner in RF, nor the Wall at home.

The K's are running at 32% on official AB's, 26% on PA's , and I think 13-14 of those were called K's on 3-2 counts.

 

One of the key comments above is that 1B , like 3B/LF/RF , is anticipated to be a power position. Casas is being counted on to deliver. The .672 OPS combined with a negative fWAR (-0.4) creates this dilemma for the Sox. The fact that Turner, unlike JDM, can actually play the field (1B) gives Cora more options to sit/platoon Casas , particularly vs LH'ers where his stats further decline.

 

What should the Red Sox do with him? The recent history of the Bloom/Cora era tells you he will be given significant opportunity to work his way up to his potential. Barring a complete failure Triston will get the full year and probably more to work on his hitting and fielding.

[Bellhorn04]

let's wait till everyone is healthy at the same time which is still a ways off.

 

That could be a long wait.

[Old Red]

That could be a long wait.

 

Maybe in the offseason, or not at all.

[Randy Red Sox]

Maybe in the offseason, or not at all.

 

that is what I m saying

[Old Red]

that is what I m saying

 

Even if all healthy I don’t see them all playing good enough to be guaranteed a FT position. It’s just like all the starting rotation being healthy, and all pitching well enough to stay in the rotation. Not likely to happen.

Edited May 22, 2023 by Old Red

[moonslav59]

Looking pretty good for the Sox, that Paxton took the $4M player option, after the Sox refused their $13M option, right?

[moonslav59]

We are not that far from June 1st:

 

In the majors, Alfaro would earn a $2 million base salary. He has opt-outs in his deal on June 1 and July 1.

 

2023 at WOO (148 AB)

 

.345 6 29

.381 OBP

.574 SLG

.956 OPS

 

McGuire has no options.

Wong will not be demoted.

 

Could we trade McGuire to make room for Alfaro?

 

(I doubt it.)

[notin]

Could we trade McGuire to make room for Alfaro?

 

(I doubt it.)

 

Do we want to?

 

The league is no stranger to Alfaro and his bat, yet his deal from Boston was still the best he could get…

[notin]

And got rid of him quickly twice.

 

The key point being they did bring him back…

[notin]

I don't agree Turner is a bust at 1B. His DWAR is -0.2 and Casas's is -0.6.

 

I am also a firm believer that you are better off going with the best bats vice the best gloves. The Sox routinely dump great fielding shortstops in pursuit of good hitting ones--and it has worked well.

 

In 2013 the Sox had one brilliant SS in Jose Iglesias and one pretty good one in Stephen Drew. But Xander Bogaerts took over the very next year at age 22 and stayed the Sox regular SS nine straight years.

 

JBJ in CF was kind of an exception, but he too had a couple good hitting seasons (2015 and 2016) and semi-adequate ones (2017 and 2018).

 

I don’t think this of a very accurate statement. Outside of Iglesias (which was 10 years ago), what great fielding shortstop(s) do the Sox dump in favor of a better hitting one?

 

Orlando Cabrera? That was nearly 20 years ago, and really he was not resigned in order to take advantage of a drafting loophole. Besides his replacement was a two time Gold Glove winner (albeit a defensive flop for the Sox)…

[moonslav59]

Do we want to?

 

The league is no stranger to Alfaro and his bat, yet his deal from Boston was still the best he could get…

 

I'm not as high on McGuire as I once was. I thought he was very good on D and would do better with the staff than Vaz did and likely Wong would do.

 

I'm not for handing McGuire away for peanuts, just to give the journeyman Alfaro a look-see, but if the return is something we need (SS, P) then maybe.

 

Kluber, $7M and McGuire for a better SP'er?