A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[notin]

I'm not as high on McGuire as I once was. I thought he was very good on D and would do better with the staff than Vaz did and likely Wong would do.

 

I'm not for handing McGuire away for peanuts, just to give the journeyman Alfaro a look-see, but if the return is something we need (SS, P) then maybe.

 

Kluber, $7M and McGuire for a better SP'er?

 

I let Alfaro walk.

 

He’s not a good defensive catcher and the Sox need McGuire’s glove more than Alfaro’s bat..

[moonslav59]

I let Alfaro walk.

 

He’s not a good defensive catcher and the Sox need McGuire’s glove more than Alfaro’s bat..

 

So, this has just been a fielding slump by McGuire?

 

Maybe we can get something for Alfaro via trade. (nothing all that great.)

[notin]

So, this has just been a fielding slump by McGuire?

 

Maybe we can get something for Alfaro via trade. (nothing all that great.)

 

Could be a “fielding slump” by McGuire. This is the first year in his career where he has had a negative DRS and more than 80 innings. Certainly you’re not suggesting he forgot how to catch?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Could be a “fielding slump” by McGuire. This is the first year in his career where he has had a negative DRS and more than 80 innings. Certainly you’re not suggesting he forgot how to catch?

 

Fair enough. Have to think a lot of catchers are affected by the pitch clock and new disengagement rules resulting in better jumps for baserunners. Look at St. Louis and Contreras.

 

Wong, leading all MLB catchers in dWAR, is either better than we all thought... or on a fielding hot streak?

[notin]

Fair enough. Have to think a lot of catchers are affected by the pitch clock and new disengagement rules resulting in better jumps for baserunners. Look at St. Louis and Contreras.

 

Wong, leading all MLB catchers in dWAR, is either better than we all thought... or on a fielding hot streak?

 

That’s a valid point about the pitch clock…

[Nick]

6 worst teams are Oakland, Reds, White Sox, Colorado, Kansas City and the Nationals.

 

We have not played one single game againt any of them.

 

Meanwhile Tampa is 14-2, Yankees 6-0, Orioles 9-3 and the Jays 6-3 against those 6 teams.

We will definitely make up grounds against the rest of AL East as schedules balance out.

Edited May 23, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Could be a “fielding slump” by McGuire. This is the first year in his career where he has had a negative DRS and more than 80 innings. Certainly you’re not suggesting he forgot how to catch?

 

No, that's why I said "slump."

[moonslav59]

6 worst teams are Oakland, Reds, White Sox, Colorado, Kansas City and the Nationals.

 

We have not played one single game againt any of them.

 

Meanwhile Tampa is 14-2, Yankees 6-0, Orioles 9-3 and the Jays 6-3 against those 6 teams.

We will definitely make up grounds against the rest of AL East as schedules balance out.

 

We haven't played the 7th worst, either- the Cubs. (Neither has any ALE team.)

 

(We are 0-3 vs the 8th worst- STL.)

[Nick]

It was enjoyable watching Houck pitch last night.

 

It's my hope Houck continues to start. He looks to have the makeup to be a starter.

 

Bello, Houck and Whitlock maybe our future.

Edited May 23, 2023 by Nick

[cp176]

Houck has a great arm always has. The talk of him moving to the pen, has always been just that - talk. He starts - he wants to start - he will continue to start. The competition between these guys is a good thing. They all will get their chances.

[mvp 78]

Fair enough. Have to think a lot of catchers are affected by the pitch clock and new disengagement rules resulting in better jumps for baserunners. Look at St. Louis and Contreras.

 

Wong, leading all MLB catchers in dWAR, is either better than we all thought... or on a fielding hot streak?

 

Wong has a cannon and is limited SB's. McGuire got eaten alive by the O's in the opening series and has a bad arm. Seems like SB's have ticked down a little bit though? I think McGuire paid a price for the Sox coaching staff not being ready for the O's early on.

[mvp 78]

Houck has a great arm always has. The talk of him moving to the pen, has always been just that - talk. He starts - he wants to start - he will continue to start. The competition between these guys is a good thing. They all will get their chances.

 

If he wants to start, he needs to earn it and be able to turn the lineup over. The talk of him staying in the rotation, has always been just that - talk.

[notin]

If he wants to start, he needs to earn it and be able to turn the lineup over. The talk of him staying in the rotation, has always been just that - talk.

 

They all want to start or close. But teams need middle relievers too..

[notin]

Wong has a cannon and is limited SB's. McGuire got eaten alive by the O's in the opening series and has a bad arm. Seems like SB's have ticked down a little bit though? I think McGuire paid a price for the Sox coaching staff not being ready for the O's early on.

 

I think pitchers have also learned how not to get destroyed by the pitch clock with runners on base..,

[moonslav59]

Houck has a great arm always has. The talk of him moving to the pen, has always been just that - talk. He starts - he wants to start - he will continue to start. The competition between these guys is a good thing. They all will get their chances.

 

Well said. Houck has stayed as a starter more out of need and the abundance of failures by his competitors, but he took a nice step forward, last night, on earning a slot, on his own.

 

I feel like the slots are being filled- one by one, and it's too bad it has taken nearly a third of the season to fill 4 of the 5 slots, but things are looking up.

 

First, Sale nailed down a slot. Technically, he owns the one slot, but I'm not sure I'd call him an ace, at this point.

 

Paxton seems to have nailed down the 2/3 slot, but it's only been 2 starts. One blow out and this board will be calling for his DFA.

 

Bello seems to have found a groove, espite still walking too many batters to solidify a 2 or 3 slot.

 

Houck is looking like he won the 4 slot, but he still needs to show he can get into the 3rd time through the line-up, a few more times, to claim that slot for the rest of the season.

 

Whitlock has the inside edge on the 5 slot, but he has a lot to prove. It's hard to know how much that injury has affected him, or if he is over it, but my hope is, he can return to near the form he showed in 2021 and 2022. If he does, we have our 5th starter.

 

Kluber will likely be given a shot at the pen, before thoughts of DFA'ing are considered.

Pivetta looks like a long man , the rest of the way, and might be the first guy chosen, if a spot start is needed.

Crawford and Wink should remain as long men.

Mata and Walter have lost their chance for 2023, IMO. Perhaps Drohan could make an appearance, late in the year, if he shows he can handle the higher levels of the minors.

 

A trade could occur to bring us a SP'er.

[Maxbialystock]

6 worst teams are Oakland, Reds, White Sox, Colorado, Kansas City and the Nationals.

 

We have not played one single game againt any of them.

 

Meanwhile Tampa is 14-2, Yankees 6-0, Orioles 9-3 and the Jays 6-3 against those 6 teams.

We will definitely make up grounds against the rest of AL East as schedules balance out.

 

Thanks. Others have mentioned the weak teams, but you're the first with specific numbers.

[Maxbialystock]

Houck has a great arm always has. The talk of him moving to the pen, has always been just that - talk. He starts - he wants to start - he will continue to start. The competition between these guys is a good thing. They all will get their chances.

 

Well said. I've been kind of anti-starter-Houck before this season, but no longer. Last night he dazzled, including 3d time facing the top five hitters in the Angels order, because he has a better repertoire this year and last night much better command--plus he worked the lower part of the zone a lot.

 

Great point about the competition!

[Maxbialystock]

That’s a valid point about the pitch clock…

 

Yes it is.

 

I'm a huge Connor Wong fan and think the starters are too.

 

But I am fine with McGuire as the other catcher because in fact every MLB team needs two. moonslav and others say his defense was pretty good before this season, and I buy that. He bats lefty and Wong righty--also good.

[moonslav59]

Thanks. Others have mentioned the weak teams, but you're the first with specific numbers.

 

It's not just weaker teams, it's almost all non ALE teams with the Sox, at least when looking at what happened in 2022.

 

There is nothing that says history will repeat itself, but the Sox struggled with their own division, last year but did very well vs non ALE teams. Playing more non ALE teams, could, in theory, help the Sox more than other ALE teams.

 

2022 Records:

 

vs ALE

47-29 NYY

43-33 TOR

40-36 TBR

34-42 BAL

26-50 BOS

 

vs Non ALE Teams

52-34 BOS

52-34 NYY

49-37 TOR

49-37 BAL

46-40 TBR

 

I'm not sure, if there has ever been such a wide discrepancy like this in MLB history.

 

[Dipre]

Sox, as a team, are underperforming their pitching peripherals. We could be in for an uptick in overall pitching performances.

[notin]

Yes it is.

 

I'm a huge Connor Wong fan and think the starters are too.

 

But I am fine with McGuire as the other catcher because in fact every MLB team needs two. moonslav and others say his defense was pretty good before this season, and I buy that. He bats lefty and Wong righty--also good.

 

Also, it turns out McGuire can hit. Alfaro might be a step down.

 

If the Sox can find a trade partner, that’s fine. But if Alfaro opts out, that’s ok too…

[Bellhorn04]

Also, it turns out McGuire can hit. Alfaro might be a step down.

 

If the Sox can find a trade partner, that’s fine. But if Alfaro opts out, that’s ok too…

 

McGuire is an average hitter for a catcher.

[Bellhorn04]

It looks like the two teams we have to beat out to make the playoffs might be the Jays and Texas.

[vegasbob]

It is probably more than a month early for teams to be serious about trade possibilities , but the Sox strategy with Kluber will more likely be to keep running him out there if they keep winning at a .550 clip , and Corey shows some improvement . Then he becomes a tradable asset for a team that loses a couple of starters to injury (LA Dodgers?) . As Nick pointed out, the Sox should get some easier series over the next 2 months while the rest of the ALE eats itself up. Oh wait , Sox haven't played the Yankees yet!

 

The Sox have more trade prospects than in previous years as the depth of MLB ready roster has improved considerably ( Arroyo, Chang (post IL), Reyes, Valdez ). Even Dalbec could be a throw-in for some teams, although his expiration date in Boston has moved on, but if Casas or even Turner strained a hammie, guess who would be back from WooSox. When Story and Duvall, much less Mondesi, are able to play the deck needs reshuffling .

 

July could get very interesting for this team

[Maxbialystock]

It is probably more than a month early for teams to be serious about trade possibilities , but the Sox strategy with Kluber will more likely be to keep running him out there if they keep winning at a .550 clip , and Corey shows some improvement . Then he becomes a tradable asset for a team that loses a couple of starters to injury (LA Dodgers?) . As Nick pointed out, the Sox should get some easier series over the next 2 months while the rest of the ALE eats itself up. Oh wait , Sox haven't played the Yankees yet!

 

The Sox have more trade prospects than in previous years as the depth of MLB ready roster has improved considerably ( Arroyo, Chang (post IL), Reyes, Valdez ). Even Dalbec could be a throw-in for some teams, although his expiration date in Boston has moved on, but if Casas or even Turner strained a hammie, guess who would be back from WooSox. When Story and Duvall, much less Mondesi, are able to play the deck needs reshuffling .

 

July could get very interesting for this team

 

Agree on July, but have to say May has already been "very interesting for this team."

[moonslav59]

On our catchers and how well pitchers do with them.

 

1. This pitching staff has so many new to the team pitchers, that no Sox catcher had any history with them, before this year.

2. McGuire joined the team in August and Wong did not see much action in the majors prior to this year, soe evn the returning pitchers had very little history with these two catchers. (Some may have seen Wong in the minors, here and there.)

3. McGuire has been getting criticism for how badly many pitchers are doing with him, and perhaps some or all of it is well-founded, but some aspects of the balance of who catches who comes into play. McGuire has not caught Houck or Whitlock, at all, and they were two of our best ERA pitchers over the last two years. I don't see people comparing their 2021-2022 numbers vs their 2023 numbers with Wong. Wong has hardly caught Kluber, at all. Is that why Kluber has sucked, or has not catching Kluber helped pad his CERA numbers?

4. There is likely a different learning curve with each pitcher and catcher. Maybe most pitchers have already decided who they want as their binky, and that may never change. My guess is most prefer Wong, and who can blame them?

 

When comparing how each pitcher does with Wong vs McGuire, Wong has a big advantage, but most sample sizes are small and or highly unbalanced. I've shown those numbers before, but I want to show something else, now: 2022 vs 2023:

 

2022>2023 (Listed in order of most IP in 2022)

Sox>Sox

4.56 > 6.17 Pivetta 6GS w Wong 5.17 (27 IP)/4 GS (16 IP) w McGuire 6.75

3.45 > 6.19 Whitlock All IP w Wong

5.47 > 3.58 Crawford 14 IP w Wong 6.08/ 13 IP w McGuire 1.26

5.89 > 2.15 Winkowski 18 IP w Wong 2.50/ 11 IP w McGuire 1.59

2.22 > 2.12 Schreiber 9IP w Wong 1.93/ 8 IP w McGuire 2.35

5.78 > 7.29 Brasier

3.15 > 4.99 Houck All IP w Wong

4.71 > 4.45 Bello

6.35 > 7.30 Ort

(Sale's 2022 sample size was too small to count.)

(Paxton did not pitch in 2022.)

 

Other > Sox

4.34 > 6.26 Kluber 8 GS McGuire (37 IP)/ 1 (5 IP) Wong (Unbalanced)

3.55 > 5.85 Bleier

3.38 > 3.95 Jansen

3.05 > 1.38 Martin

3.86 > 3.65 Bernardino

 

[Bellhorn04]

Overall CERA:

 

Wong 4.03

McGuire 5.94

 

The reason McGuire's is so much higher, even though he does better with some pitchers, is obviously that the ones he does badly with are all starters, which translates to a higher volume of innings.

 

Also, the reason McGuire has not caught Houck, Whitlock or Paxton is that either they asked for Wong, or management made the call. It doesn't reflect well on McGuire, in any case.

[moonslav59]

It is probably more than a month early for teams to be serious about trade possibilities , but the Sox strategy with Kluber will more likely be to keep running him out there if they keep winning at a .550 clip , and Corey shows some improvement . Then he becomes a tradable asset for a team that loses a couple of starters to injury (LA Dodgers?) . As Nick pointed out, the Sox should get some easier series over the next 2 months while the rest of the ALE eats itself up. Oh wait , Sox haven't played the Yankees yet!

 

The Sox have more trade prospects than in previous years as the depth of MLB ready roster has improved considerably ( Arroyo, Chang (post IL), Reyes, Valdez ). Even Dalbec could be a throw-in for some teams, although his expiration date in Boston has moved on, but if Casas or even Turner strained a hammie, guess who would be back from WooSox. When Story and Duvall, much less Mondesi, are able to play the deck needs reshuffling .

 

July could get very interesting for this team

 

The minor league depth at SP'er evaporated with mata, walter and Murphy all doing poorly out of the gate.

 

The strategy with Kluber has been based on there not being many other choices, until now, and this...

 

ERA Last 4 Weeks

7.54 Pivetta (23 IP)

5.35 Houck (28 IP)

4.56 Kluber (24 IP)

2.57 Bello (21 IP)

2.45 Paxton (11 IP)

2.30 Sale (27 IP)

 

Was there a better strategy, until now?

[Maxbialystock]

It looks like the two teams we have to beat out to make the playoffs might be the Jays and Texas.

 

And it keeps changing.

 

I prefer to focus on number of wins or winning percentage. Last season the third AL wild card team was the Rays with 86 wins (and a winning percentage of .531), the second was the Mariners with 90 wins, and the top WC team was the Jays with 92 wins (and a winning percentage of .568).

[moonslav59]

Overall CERA:

 

Wong 4.03

McGuire 5.94

 

The reason McGuire's is so much higher, even though he does better with some pitchers, is obviously that the ones he does badly with are all starters, which translates to a higher volume of innings.

 

Also, the reason McGuire has not caught Houck, Whitlock or Paxton is that either they asked for Wong, or management made the call. It doesn't reflect well on McGuire, in any case.

 

I don't doubt the reasoning, but certainly catching almost all of Kluber and none of Paxton Houck and Whitlock and little from sale should create a massive adjustment situation or context inclusion into the analysis, right? Then, most of Sale's IP have been with Wong, and both of Paxton's starts have been with Wong. (maybe they'd all have worse numbers had it been McGuire, but it's impossible to know.)

 

I'm not arguing McGuire is better- just that the overall CERA numbers are almost always deceiving, and are now.

 

Why not ask why Whitlock and Houck are doing way worse than 2022, when only one catcher has caught them in 2023? I'm not asking this because I think the answer matters, but if you ask about McGuire vs Wong, then you should also ask this to yourself.

 

A lot of our pitchers are doing much worse than last year or previous/recent years. Why? It does not seem to matter who has been catching them. Almost all are doing worse.

 

Only Wink and Crawford are showing massive gains, and weirdly, both have done better with McGuire. Why?

 

You don't seem to acknowledge these aspects of the situation that favor McGuire.

Edited May 23, 2023 by moonslav59