A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

When we miss out on the playoffs by couple of games, we can look back on indecisiveness of Cora and the rest of baseball operations personnel dragging their feet on Kluber.

 

We have enough starters, all season..

 

Let the motherf*er work out his mechanics in rehab stints.

 

Unbelievable. It's clear that Kluber is completely lost based on his post game interview.

 

We haven't had extra starters.

 

Paxton started the year on the IL.

Whitlock missed a bunch of time.

Bello didn't start until April 17.

Crawford missed some time and has done much better from the pen.

 

Some of the pitchers we have to start, instead of Kluber have records just as bad.

 

6.26 Kluber

6.19 Whitlock

6.17 Whitlock

 

Houck has not been much better at 5.48.

[Nick]

I am talking about RIGHT NOW. This week.

 

We have 7 starters plus Kutter.

 

I get it he deserved a spot until NOW.

 

How many more starts do you want to give hin?

[moonslav59]

I am talking about RIGHT NOW. This week.

 

We have 7 starters plus Kutter.

 

I get it he deserved a spot until NOW.

 

Okay, Got it.

 

Still, Pivetta and Whitlock have not been any better.

 

They all have about the same ERA.

 

Last 28 days (before today's 1 ER start by Kluber)

No IP Whitlock

7.97 Pivetta

6.65 Houck

4.64 Kluber

 

I'm upset with Kluber, too, but it's not some clear choice that Pivetta is better.

 

I'd certainly start Whitlock over Kluber.

 

My 5 would be this, but there are some quirks...

 

Sale

Paxton

Bello

Houck (should really be in the pen)

Whitlock (May prove he belongs in the open, too.)

 

#6 Pivetta & Kluber are a coin toss, to me.

[moonslav59]

How many more starts do you want to give hin?

 

Honestly? About the same as Pivetta: maybe none, but I really don't want Houck or Whitlock starting either, but not because I think hey have lost their edge, but because they seem way better suited for the pen.

 

Crawford belongs in the pen. He's done great there and has struggled as a SP'er.

Career

6.22 SP

3.31 RP

 

My point is that this is not a slam dunk choice to make, and until we find our 4-5 starters I'm not going to DFA Kluber (even if he was signed at $1M.)

 

One more start seems okay with me. Maybe two.

 

How Whitlock and Houck do in their next 2 starts might change our views, depending on how Kluber and Pivetta look in the next 10 days, too.

[cp176]

Kluber of course gets at least one more start.

[moonslav59]

Kluber of course gets at least one more start.

 

He may get more.

 

(Not saying he deserves it.)

 

I had really hoped someone from Mata, Walter or Murphy would step it up in AAA and push for a chance at a slot in the rotation, but they've all gone backwards.

 

It seems like Crawford and Wink really like the long relief role, so I hate to mess with that, but we may have to try one, if this 4 and 5 slot thing does not get solved, soon.

 

The contenders and their ERAs and recent numbers:

8.00 Crawford (2 GS way back)

6.30 Pivetta

6.26 Kluber

6.19 Whitlock

5.48 Houck

 

Last 28 days

7.54 Pivetta (Does this deserve another look more than Kluber?)

6.65 Houck (Getting through 1 time might be our best choice)

4.56 Kluber (His FIP is 6.00- yikes!)

1.69 Crawford (5.1 IP as RP)

No IP Whitlock (He has to get a long look at SP.)

 

I'm all for going with Whitlock & Houck, but it's not like any of these guys are earning it.

 

[Bellhorn04]

If Kluber's getting another start it should be with Wong catching.

[notin]

If Kluber's getting another start it should be with Wong catching.

 

If Kluber goes again, it will certainly be the Wong decision.

 

(I had to beat 5Gold to the punch there.)

[Bellhorn04]

If Kluber goes again, it will certainly be the Wong decision.

 

(I had to beat 5Gold to the punch there.)

 

Well done then.

[Nick]

It's very possible that Whitlock and Houck may not work out as starters but we are nowhere near the end with the two as we are with Kluber.

 

Whitlock has been hurt. I would like to see how he does 100% healthy.

 

I am willing to give Houck couple of more shots to see if he can navigate 4/5 th inning.

 

My whole point is EXAUST every possibility until July.

 

Then make a decision to go out and get better help or gear up for 2024.

 

I am no means punting this season.

 

This has been a fun team to watch.

 

A poster on another board stated he had a chance to attend yesterday's game but he decided it wasn't worth his drive when he saw Kluber was pitching.

 

I think that sums up my feelings about Kluber.

Maybe it will change after he throws a complete game on Sunday.

Edited May 22, 2023 by Nick

[Hugh2]

I'm not sure how much longer they can live with Kluber starts, it feels like he should be the odd man out next time they need a spot.

 

What concerns me is the fact that they invested in him as a starter so they hold off a bit longer. I also don't think Kluber would pitch as well out of the pen as Houck/Whitlock/Crawford either but I might want any one of those guys in the rotation OVER Kluber at this point.

 

At least he didn't hurt the team last night. Even if he pitched well we would not have won with the performance the offense put up last night.

[mvp 78]

It looks like the Wong-McGuire catching tandem has come down to earth on offense, as both are under .700, but Vaz is under .600, right now. The tandem's D seems to be good and improving. The CERA aspect is still up for debate, but the rotation seems to be turning the corner. (Learning curve? Regressing to their norms?)

 

Vaz's contract was just way too high IMO. I think his $$$ can be used elsewhere. Mcguire/Wong hitting 8th is decent for what cathers are these days. No complaints from me.

[moonslav59]

If you look at just ERs and IP, Kluber's last 5 starts don't look horrific, but we all know, he's been worse than this shows:

 

IP/ ER

6.0/1

5.1/3

5.0/3

5.0/4

2.1/1

 

4.56 ERA, but...

 

6.00 FIP

.849 OPS Against

1.56 WHIP (37 H+BB in 23.2 IP)

 

Again, though, all but Sale, paxton and Bello have sucked and have been doing their best to NOT win a rotation slot.

[mvp 78]

Kluber of course gets at least one more start.

 

And that's probably it before a phantom IL?

 

Hard hit is up to 45% (35 '22).

BB% is 9.4 (3.4 '22).

xSLG of .514 is bottom 10% in the league.

 

He went from being a control pitcher with no velocity to a guy who walks batters with no velocity. I'm not sure there's upside left.

[Hugh2]

I also wouldn't mind the Sox getting creative and using more guys as a piggyback. Like, give Houck the ball for 4 then Crawford/Wink for 3. Let Pivetta/Whitlock go for 7-8 combined. Might have some Merit if both Pivetta and Kluber could be effective in shorters stints out of the bullpen (2-3 innings at a time). The good news is you'd retain all your starting pitching depth, but you'd probably end up having to DFA one guy at some point. Bleier might be on the chopping block next, would be nice if we could even get something for him (don't need salary relief).

[moonslav59]

Vaz's contract was just way too high IMO. I think his $$$ can be used elsewhere. Mcguire/Wong hitting 8th is decent for what cathers are these days. No complaints from me.

 

I figured they probably would not match the offense of Vaz, but Plawecki's was so bad, I felt they could come close to what our catchers have done over the year on O, but that the area for improvement could come from is on defense.

 

The other thing about Vaz and his offense was that he was very inconsistent from year to year. OPS+

73

55

92

46

103

111

77

98

(For a catcher 77 is not all that bad, and neither was his 84 career OPS+ w BOS.)

 

Catcher OPS

.709 2023

.694 2022

.686 2021

.865 2020 (short season)

.744 2019

.534 2018

 

Wong has really shown a lot of promise on D, while McGuire, who apparently was supposed to be better has been in some sort of funk.

 

[moonslav59]

And that's probably it before a phantom IL?

 

Hard hit is up to 45% (35 '22).

BB% is 9.4 (3.4 '22).

xSLG of .514 is bottom 10% in the league.

 

He went from being a control pitcher with no velocity to a guy who walks batters with no velocity. I'm not sure there's upside left.

 

A regain of control is the only hope.

[moonslav59]

I also wouldn't mind the Sox getting creative and using more guys as a piggyback. Like, give Houck the ball for 4 then Crawford/Wink for 3. Let Pivetta/Whitlock go for 7-8 combined. Might have some Merit if both Pivetta and Kluber could be effective in shorters stints out of the bullpen (2-3 innings at a time). The good news is you'd retain all your starting pitching depth, but you'd probably end up having to DFA one guy at some point. Bleier might be on the chopping block next, would be nice if we could even get something for him (don't need salary relief).

 

Maybe not assign a particular tandem, which is what piggybacking is, but if we have Crawford, Wink and Pivetta in the pen, all capable of going 3 (maybe 4+ w Crawford and Pivetta), we should be able to have 1 or 2 ready to go, everytime Whitlock or Houck start.

 

If Kluber is moved to the pen, maybe we'd have 4 "long men."

[Hugh2]

Maybe not assign a particular tandem, which is what piggybacking is, but if we have Crawford, Wink and Pivetta in the pen, all capable of going 3 (maybe 4+ w Crawford and Pivetta), we should be able to have 1 or 2 ready to go, everytime Whitlock or Houck start.

 

If Kluber is moved to the pen, maybe we'd have 4 "long men."

 

Agreed, I imagine them being flexible with the staff in this scenario.

[cp176]

And that's probably it before a phantom IL?

 

Hard hit is up to 45% (35 '22).

BB% is 9.4 (3.4 '22).

xSLG of .514 is bottom 10% in the league.

 

He went from being a control pitcher with no velocity to a guy who walks batters with no velocity. I'm not sure there's upside left.

 

You're likely right. My guess is that he gets 2 more starts and if things don't improve for him, the injury bug bites.

[Nick]

Maybe not assign a particular tandem, which is what piggybacking is, but if we have Crawford, Wink and Pivetta in the pen, all capable of going 3 (maybe 4+ w Crawford and Pivetta), we should be able to have 1 or 2 ready to go, everytime Whitlock or Houck start.

 

If Kluber is moved to the pen, maybe we'd have 4 "long men."

 

We can add #1 starter and #5 becomes long reliever. Repeat. Repeat.

[moonslav59]

We can add #1 starter and #5 becomes long reliever. Repeat. Repeat.

 

Who are we "adding?" Someone successful as the long man?

[Nick]

Who are we "adding?" Someone successful as the long man?

 

You know me better than that.

 

Acquire an ace. #5 starter becomes a long reliever. Acquire another ace. Now the previous #4 starter becomes a long reliever.

 

At this point, only thing we're missing are quality starters in my opinion.

 

Unresolved issues.

 

1 What to do with Story when he comes back. It seems to me it's better to put him at short. At that point, Arroyo/Valdez or Chang/Valdez could work at 2B.

 

2 I'm willing to live with Casas at 1B unless he turns into another Dalbec. We have the option of platooning him with Turner, move Yoshida to DH and employ Tapia or Refsnyder in left when Casas sits.

 

3 What to do with Duran, assuming he continues to hit, when Duvall returns. It's a good problem to have.

 

4 Our pen will only improve with everyone becoming healthy.

[moonslav59]

You know me better than that.

 

Acquire an ace. #5 starter becomes a long reliever. Acquire another ace. Now the previous #4 starter becomes a long reliever.

 

At this point, only thing we're missing are quality starters in my opinion.

 

Unresolved issues.

 

1 What to do with Story when he comes back. It seems to me it's better to put him at short. At that point, Arroyo/Valdez or Chang/Valdez could work at 2B.

 

2 I'm willing to live with Casas at 1B unless he turns into another Dalbec. We have the option of platooning him with Turner, move Yoshida to DH and employ Tapia or Refsnyder in left when Casas sits.

 

3 What to do with Duran, assuming he continues to hit, when Duvall returns. It's a good problem to have.

 

4 Our pen will only improve with everyone becoming healthy.

 

I don't think acquiring a decent SP'er before July is something we can hope for, but sure, when the time comes, great!

 

I'm fine with Story at SS, if the Sox think he's okay there. I see a Kike-Valdez platoon at 2B and maybe an Arroyo trade.

 

I think when Duvall returns, it will be decision time for Casas. Duran CF, Duvall/Yoshida LF, Yoshida/Turner DH, Turner/Casas 1B.

 

We can make it work. Duvall can play some CF, when Duran sits, and some RF, too, when Dugo needs a break.

 

It might end up as a Casas vs most righties and no lefties.

[moonslav59]

When Story and Duvall return, maybe we see this for playing time. (When Mondesi returns, who knows what happens?)

 

C Wong/McGuire continue, as is.

1B Casas vs most RHPs/ Turner vs some RHPs and all LHPs

2B Valdez vs most RHPs/ Kike vs some RHPs and all LHPs (Arroyo traded)

SS Story FT (Kike gives rest)

3B Devers FT (Turner gives rest)

LF Duvall vs most RHPs and some LHPs/Yoshida vs some RHPs and some LHPs

CF Duran vs all RHPs/Duvall vs most LHPs & Duran vs some LHPs (Kike some?)

RF Verdugo FT (Duvall gives rest)

DH Turner v most RHPs/ Yoshida vs some RHPs and most LHPs

 

I think we can find enough playing time for Kike, Valdez, Casas and Duran.

 

Yoshida, Turner and Duvall will play pretty much FT but at different positions.

 

Mondesi is a switch hitter, but he has been sporadic at the plate and one wonders how the injury will affect his defense. He may not play much, once he returns. A lot might depend on how Kike and Valdez are doing.

[mvp 78]

You know me better than that.

 

Acquire an ace. #5 starter becomes a long reliever. Acquire another ace. Now the previous #4 starter becomes a long reliever.

 

At this point, only thing we're missing are quality starters in my opinion.

 

Unresolved issues.

 

1 What to do with Story when he comes back. It seems to me it's better to put him at short. At that point, Arroyo/Valdez or Chang/Valdez could work at 2B.

 

2 I'm willing to live with Casas at 1B unless he turns into another Dalbec. We have the option of platooning him with Turner, move Yoshida to DH and employ Tapia or Refsnyder in left when Casas sits.

 

3 What to do with Duran, assuming he continues to hit, when Duvall returns. It's a good problem to have.

 

4 Our pen will only improve with everyone becoming healthy.

 

When Duvall comes back, it's basically a Duvall/Casas platoon.

 

LHP:

Duvall LF

Turner 1B

Yoshida DH

RHP:

Casas 1B

Turner DH

Yoshida LF

[mvp 78]

When Story and Duvall return, maybe we see this for playing time. (When Mondesi returns, who knows what happens?)

 

They aren't even talking about Mondesi anymore. Originally, there was talk of him being back by May...

 

Story will be fulltime SS.

 

Kiké/Valdez platoon 2B. Kiké UTIL other positions against RHB.

[Maxbialystock]

A regain of control is the only hope.

 

Agree. I could be wrong, but my strong impression of his pitching yesterday was that he was definitely working the corners and missing--but not by a lot. On the other hand, he didn't even look good in the 2d inning, which ended with a line drive to Valdez who flipped to Kike at 2B to double up the guy who led the inning off with a double.

 

Kluber has actually been decent in 4 of 8 starts: 5 IP, 1 ER vs Pirates; 6 IP, 1 ER vs Orioles; 5.1 IP and 3 ER vs. Jays, and 5 IP and 3 ER vs Phillies.

[Maxbialystock]

They aren't even talking about Mondesi anymore. Originally, there was talk of him being back by May...

 

Story will be fulltime SS.

 

Kiké/Valdez platoon 2B. Kiké UTIL other positions against RHB.

 

Get used to Kike because Story and Mondesi are both July or later.

 

However, Chang should be back next month, June. Duvall should be back next month as well.

[Old Red]

When Duvall comes back, it's basically a Duvall/Casas platoon.

 

LHP:

Duvall LF

Turner 1B

Yoshida DH

RHP:

Casas 1B

Turner DH

Yoshida LF

 

I’m not so sure when Duvall comes back he’ll just basically be a platoon with Casas. I don’t think Duran has fully locked down CF yet, and there is still plenty of time until Duvall comes back that things may look different than they do today. Like they always say that things usually work themselves out.