A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[cp176]

Reverse clutch is the only real clutch. Facts of life my friends.

 

Some of us crueler hearts would call that choke.

[jad]

No.

 

Yes!

[moonslav59]

That's better than falling behind and not coming back, mind you.

 

Indeed, and many games Elway got his team in a hole, they never came back.

 

That's why I'd like to see the numbers.

 

What percent of games were Brady, Elway and Rodgers behind going into the 4th, and what percent did they turn it into a win?

 

If Elway was behind 50% and brought the team back 25%, he'll have more come from behind wins than Brady who was behind 25% of his games and brought the team back 50% of those time.

[Hugh2]

Some of us crueler hearts would call that choke.

 

Precisely

[moonslav59]

So let me try to clear things up - You saying that you must have been randomly lucky back in your day seemed to me that you were saying that you likely were a clutch player. Most of the clutch players that I have known and worked with, often times didn't realize that they were nor did it matter. They seemed to have been made for the bigger moments. Hope that helps.

 

Helps what?

 

A great read is a book called "In the Zone" by Clyde Brolin that speaks of how champions think, especially in big moments, and you are right: they aren't thinking "I'm doing great in this clutch moment." If they do, they will quickly lose that mojo.

 

In a way the player is "out of his mind" and is seeing things in slow motion, in one sense. Anticipating at a higher level.

 

I've been in that zone a few times and was fortunate to have it happen in the biggest game of my life. It also happened in less meaningful games. If you think about it, it doesn't happen.

 

I've had times where I think something like, "Man, I think I just made 8 straight shots," and sure enough, I missed the next one.

 

I will disagree on it not "mattering." It matters, and after the fact, the player knows he rose to the occasion at a pivotal time. Being able to repeat that over and over is not something I see as a skill.

 

I have no issue with others disagreeing with me on this, and it's just opinions. I have no evidence to support my view, but I was taking issue with the statement about everyone not agreeing clutch is a skill were not clutch.

 

It's like saying only people who were good at baseball make good commentators.

[Bellhorn04]

Indeed, and many games Elway got his team in a hole, they never came back.

 

So every time the Broncos fell behind it was Elway's doing, not the defence's?

 

He was 148-82 in the regular season, and 14-7 in the playoffs, with 5 SB appearances and 2 wins. Seems to me he did OK.

[Maxbialystock]

Performing on par when someone else folds equals the same exact results.

 

For example. Lets say player A is not clutch, but not not clutch either (we are going by believers in clutch in it's non-reverse clutch permutation here, I hope I haven't lost you). Player A is batting while Pitcher X throws a meatball to him. Pitcher X is anxious and folds under pressure. He serves up a meatball to Player A, player A hits it out of the park. Was player A clutch? or did pitcher X fold?

 

It's like 2X2 = 4, but 2+2 = 4 as well. You get the same results, but it's two completely different formulas.

 

We see this play out in real-time. There's no factor that allows a guy to reach into his physiology more than other people. A pitcher reaching back and adding 2-3 MPH to his fastball is not an uncommon trait, but we see some guys lose their control while they do it and others are able to keep it. IT'S MENTAL. It's all about mental acuity. Clutch players are able to maintain their composure while others are not. If you're able to do that, and lets say 25% of pitchers can not, without ANY uptick in skill level ALL of your stats are going to be beefed up. That's pretty straightforward, just like 2X2=4, or 1 2 3 as some would say.

 

When I competed as a pro athlete, I found this to be very real. Some guys let the adrenaline get to them and it's actually overusing your strength and trying to do more that leads to less. It's the guys who are able to control their emotions that outperform. And while I do believe some human beings have a pre-disposition to control their emotions it's also a teachable skill. The more experience you have, the better you can become at controlling those emotions.

 

Clutch, is emotions, it's the ability to control them and not let your anxiety lead you to underperform in a tight situation. It's all about Mental acuity.

 

So yes, I do believe in clutch. Clutch is very real. I just see it as 2X2 = 4 where others are saying 2+2 = 4.

 

Interesting. Overall, I'm not all that interested in all these random thoughts about "clutch," but I do like yours. It takes a special athlete to focus in pressure situations and to make the most of them.

 

That said, hitter vs. pitcher is complicated, especially if the pitcher is a bonafide ace--good stuff and good command--and the hitter is also extremely good. Statistically, the odds definitely favor the pitcher--unless he makes a mistake and throws a meatball. And even then we need to remember Ted Williams's comment about how difficult it is to hit a round ball with a round bat squarely.

[moonslav59]

So every time the Broncos fell behind it was Elway's doing, not the defence's?

 

Many times Elway was a major reason they were behind.

 

He had over 10 INTs every year and almost double the career INT% as Brady and Rodgers:

 

INT%

3.1 Elway

1.8 Brady

1.4 Rodgers

 

COMP%

65.3 Rodgers

64.3 Brady

56.9 Elway

 

Yrds per Att

7.4 Brady

7.1 Elway

6.8 Rodgers

 

I felt the same about Allen Iverson, who would shoot 11 for 34, but make the team's last 3 shots and be the comeback hero.

[dgalehouse]

My uncle Paddy was a clutch player in his day. But he used to ******** about his accomplishments so much that none of us really believed him. Sound familiar ?

[moonslav59]

My uncle Paddy was a clutch player in his day. But he used to ******** about his accomplishments so much that none of us really believed him. Sound familiar ?

 

I looked him up. He was great in key moments, except that one game Auntie Jen was in the stands.

[sk7326]

Many times Elway was a major reason they were behind.

 

He had over 10 INTs every year and almost double the career INT% as Brady and Rodgers:

 

INT%

3.1 Elway

1.8 Brady

1.4 Rodgers

 

COMP%

65.3 Rodgers

64.3 Brady

56.9 Elway

 

Yrds per Att

7.4 Brady

7.1 Elway

6.8 Rodgers

 

I felt the same about Allen Iverson, who would shoot 11 for 34, but make the team's last 3 shots and be the comeback hero.

 

They asked everything out of Elway on deeply flawed clubs. And of course the standard for INTs and such are a lot different than they were in the 80s.

[cp176]

My uncle Paddy was a clutch player in his day. But he used to ******** about his accomplishments so much that none of us really believed him. Sound familiar ?

 

hmmm - yup

[Bellhorn04]

They asked everything out of Elway on deeply flawed clubs. And of course the standard for INTs and such are a lot different than they were in the 80s.

 

Excellent point.

[notin]

Excellent point.

 

And no one cared about QBR

[moonslav59]

Interceptions have put many a team behind in all eras.

 

My use of Elway as an example may be based on a lot of anecdotal evidence, and I'd like to see what Elway's QBR was in each of his comeback wins, before the comeback began.

 

Compare those numbers to Brady, and my guess is the difference will be stark.

[moonslav59]

Don't let these updated Sox OPS numbers knock you over!

 

1.544 Duvall (I wonder where he'd be at if not injured.)

1.139 Duran (Many of us felt he should never get another chance, unless we were eliminated.)

.948 Yoshida (So much for the mega overpay talk.)

.897 Dugo (Finally living up to the hopes many of us had.)

.849 Devers (Hard to imagine him T5th in team OPS.)

.849 Wong (What a pleasant surprise!)

.833 Valdez (They kid could always hit- at least vs RHPs.)

.779 McGuire (Keeping up his Red Sox success story. His Red sample size is nearly = his White.)

.766 Turner (If he continues his traditional second half success, this could be a career year.)

.715 Tapia (Looked more promising in ST'ing, but doing okay.)

.664 Kike (Started heating up, but has leveled off a bit.)

.662 Ref (Was last year a fluke?)

.636 Arroyo (Had a great 3 game stretch.)

.587 Casas (If he heats up, double wowzah!)

.586 Dalbec (May not get another look in 2023.)

.515 Chang (The race is on for who comes back, first: Story, Mondesi or Chang.)

 

[moonslav59]

Sox by Most in PAs:

 

146 Turner

144 Dugo

141 Devers

127 Kike

120 Yoshida

106 Casas

74 Arroyo

74 Wong

68 Duran

59 Ref

56 McGuire

47 Chang

40 Tapia

37 Duvall

33 Valdez

11 Dalbec

 

Total Batters Faced

138 Houck

134 Pivetta

134 Sale

131 Kluber

102 Crawford

88 Winckowski

82 Bello

74 Brasier

65 Schreiber

62 Ort

57 Bleier

38 Martin

35 Jansen

34 Kelly

27 Bernardino

 

Plus...

Story

Mondesi

Joely

Paxton

Mills

 

Looks like this is Bloom's team

 

 

[moonslav59]

OPS by Position (not counting tonight's game)

1.083 CF (.671 in '22)

.878 RF (.661)

.829 C (.694)

.825 LF (.694)

.813 DH (.763)

 

.790 3B (.856)

 

.677 SS (.815)

.642 1B (.683)

.617 2B (.724)

 

No batting slot is under .692:

.961 5th

.885 8th

.859 2nd

.829 1st (.366 OBP)

.785 6th

.762 4th

.713 7th

.704 9th

.692 3rd

 

.845 1-2

.801 3-6

.766 7-9

 

2022:

.753 1-2

.769 3-6

.656 7-9

 

2021:

.771 1-2

.830 3-6

.713 7-9

 

[moonslav59]

19-14 is the 8th best record in MLB and tied for 7th with MIL at 18-13.

 

We are 1/2 game from being tied with TEX and LAD for the 5th best record.

 

We are 1.5 GB PIT for the 4th best record in MLB.

 

We are 3GB BAL for second in the mighty ALE and the 3rd best record in MLB.

 

What a difference 5 games makes.

 

It just goes to show you how quickly things can change (for good and bad.)

 

[Maxbialystock]

19-14 is the 8th best record in MLB and tied for 7th with MIL at 18-13.

 

We are 1/2 game from being tied with TEX and LAD for the 5th best record.

 

We are 1.5 GB PIT for the 4th best record in MLB.

 

We are 3GB BAL for second in the mighty ALE and the 3rd best record in MLB.

 

What a difference 5 games makes.

 

It just goes to show you how quickly things can change (for good and bad.)

 

 

They changed quickly because it's still early in the season. Nevertheless, your drum beating is completely justified. No one of us saw this coming.

 

Maybe a little early for dancing in the streets, but I'm doing it in my study. Anyone who picked the Sox to have a winning season in the preseason poll--I think there are three of you--should boast and brag.

 

Next up, three in Philly.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The shift ban definitely helps, but the '23 Red Sox are better because they feature different batters making better contact. Yoshida and Turner are pro hitters, along with an improved Verdugo. But the recent hot streak also includes guys who were playing in Worcester at the end of last summer: Duran, Wong, Valdez, Casas.

 

Boston has the fourth lowest strikeout rate in the league, with only 14 more Ks than Cleveland, the best contact club. Last year the Sox struck out higher than the league average, with 251 more whiffs than Cleveland...

 

'23 Ks, AL leaders: #29 Casas, #38 Kike

 

'22 Ks, AL leaders for the year: #15 Martinez, #34 Story (in 94 games), #41 Bogaerts, #42 Dalbec

 

Where's Raffy? He didn't make either top 42... he's tied for #43; last year was #48. Devers is Devers, leading the league in homers, while 42 others fan more (when Judge broke the AL HR record, only two guys struck out more times).

[Bellhorn04]

.948 Yoshida (So much for the mega overpay talk.)

 

Last 14 games:

 

446/484/804

1.288 OPS

5 HR

18 RBI

[Bellhorn04]

.662 Ref (Was last year a fluke?)

.356 OBP though.

 

And he had 2 key RBI in the second game of the Jays series.

 

Still like this guy.

[Bellhorn04]

Interceptions have put many a team behind in all eras.

 

My use of Elway as an example may be based on a lot of anecdotal evidence, and I'd like to see what Elway's QBR was in each of his comeback wins, before the comeback began.

 

Compare those numbers to Brady, and my guess is the difference will be stark.

 

Sounds to me like you carry a grudge from a certain Super Bowl game.

[notin]

.356 OBP though.

 

And he had 2 key RBI in the second game of the Jays series.

 

Still like this guy.

 

He’s a weak side platoon bench bat. He’ll always find work.

 

It will be interesting given the play of Tapia and the emergence of Valdez, who goes when players start getting added back on to the 40 man?

 

I assume Garza goes when Mills returns. But for Story? Mondesi? Any deadline acquisition?

[Bellhorn04]

He’s a weak side platoon bench bat. He’ll always find work.

 

It will be interesting given the play of Tapia and the emergence of Valdez, who goes when players start getting added back on to the 40 man?

 

I assume Garza goes when Mills returns. But for Story? Mondesi? Any deadline acquisition?

 

I'll leave that to you Roster Fiends.

[moonslav59]

They changed quickly because it's still early in the season. Nevertheless, your drum beating is completely justified. No one of us saw this coming.

 

Maybe a little early for dancing in the streets, but I'm doing it in my study. Anyone who picked the Sox to have a winning season in the preseason poll--I think there are three of you--should boast and brag.

 

Next up, three in Philly.

 

Just as I cautioned fellow posters to not get so gloom and doomy over such a small sample size, this 5 game stretch is even smaller.

 

We still have some major weaknesses that will be exposed, again and again, namely defense and still the rotation. While I do still think the rotation will improve to middle of the pack (or better), it's not there yet.

 

Other teams have major weaknesses, too, as we just saw with TOR.

 

I'm certainly more optimistic than I was 5 days ago, but this is not going to be easy.

 

[mvp 78]

He’s a weak side platoon bench bat. He’ll always find work.

 

It will be interesting given the play of Tapia and the emergence of Valdez, who goes when players start getting added back on to the 40 man?

 

I assume Garza goes when Mills returns. But for Story? Mondesi? Any deadline acquisition?

 

Chang is an easy drop. Tapia is an easy drop now that Duran can play.

[moonslav59]

Sounds to me like you carry a grudge from a certain Super Bowl game.

 

Not at all. I never fell for the Elway hype- long before that Packer beat down.

[Bellhorn04]

Not at all. I never fell for the Elway hype- long before that Packer beat down.

 

I just don't see how you can dismiss a guy who went to 5 Super Bowls as hype.