A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

Henry getting booed at winter weekend right now.

 

Man that was tough. John Henry, asked about the #RedSox ticket prices, "baseball players are expensive."

 

Loud boos in response and Sam Kennedy has to step in and rescue him after he can barely get a word in afterwards.

[moonslav59]

I'm for cutting ties. He looked helpless at the plate and only marginal defensively at first base. Time to move on.

 

I think he deserves another chance at the plate- maybe not with the Sox, since we have Casas and Turner, now.

 

His D is horrific. Maybe, trying him in LF might be the best idea, but we already have 18 players where LF is their best position.

[Old Red]

Henry getting booed at winter weekend right now.

 

Man that was tough. John Henry, asked about the #RedSox ticket prices, "baseball players are expensive."

 

Loud boos in response and Sam Kennedy has to step in and rescue him after he can barely get a word in afterwards.

 

Fans paid $50 for the day, or $95 for the weekend to do it. One said that’s dedication, and conviction. That’s Red Sox Nation.

[Hugh2]

It's not hindsight when it was an active conversation going into the 2022 season.

 

2022 season?

[harmony]

You honestly think last year's line-up and pen were better?

 

.661 RF

.671 CF

.683 1B

.694 C

.694 LF

 

.724 2B

.763 DH

 

.815 SS

.856 3B

 

Yes, we basically lost 2 FT SP'ers with 26 GS from Hill, 23 from Wacha and 20 from Nate, but what the half empty guys fail to see is that we added Kluber, and more from Whitlock & Bello and also have the 3rd SP'er to replace, which should be very easy to improve upon:

14 Winckowski 5.89

12 Crawford 5.47

5 Seabold 11.29

3 Davis 5.47

That's 34 awful starts and Sale, Paxton, Kluber, Bello, Whitlock and maybe Houck, Mata and Walter to fill up that half of the glass.

 

BTW, I'm only saying we should significantly improve on a last place team and NOT winning any WS ring.

No one suggested the glass is empty.

 

The headline of a Peter Gammons piece Friday at The Athletic: Ten years later, the 2013 Red Sox remind us that anything is possible:

 

https://theathletic.com/4073575/2023/01/20/gammons-2013-red-sox-retrospective/

Subscription required.

[moonslav59]

No one suggested the glass is empty.

 

[/size]

 

You suggested thinking the glass was just half full was stretching it.

 

We will be better, next year.

[harmony]

You suggested thinking the glass was just half full was stretching it.

 

We will be better, next year.

This year could be the problem.

 

Or not.

[jacksonianmarch]

Cora said plan is to start Arroyo at 2b and Kike at SS to start the year.

There will be a race to the IL with those two

[notin]

Cora said plan is to start Arroyo at 2b and Kike at SS to start the year.

There will be a race to the IL with those two

 

And can they get there before Judge?

[Bellhorn04]

Cora said plan is to start Arroyo at 2b and Kike at SS to start the year.

There will be a race to the IL with those two

 

It does seem like a recipe for disaster.

[notin]

It does seem like a recipe for disaster.

 

A lot can happen between now and opening day…

[Bellhorn04]

A lot can happen between now and opening day…

 

True that.

 

My present obsession is signing Andrus, of course...

[notin]

True that.

 

My present obsession is signing Andrus, of course...

 

Andrus is the easiest and obvious target.

 

But even if the Sox decide it’s Hernandez/Arroyo, ok. There are good things about that combo. But then who is the utility infielder?

[notin]

It does seem like a recipe for disaster.

 

The shocking part is he’s picking on Kike’s health.

 

Kike has played in 80% of his team’s games 5 times in the last 6 years. Judge and Stanton have reached that level a total of 6 times in the past 6 years.

 

Oh and now the Yankees have Carlos Rodon!! Yes he should get over all those pesky injuries that derailed his 20s and be nothing but healthy in his 30s. After all, doesn’t time heal all wounds? Or does that not apply to actual physical injuries and the aging process?

[Nick]

Interesting that Cora thinks our trio at CF/2B/SS will provide more power.

 

No wonder Xander wasn't extended. Let me have it!

 

I am with Moon. We will be better.

[a700hitter]

It does seem like a recipe for disaster.

This is shaping up as a really bad team. Extremely weak up the middle. No power bats except a guy that strikes out 50% of the time and a starting staff full of fragile arms. They will not do as well as least year.

[Tedballgame]

I'm for cutting ties. He looked helpless at the plate and only marginal defensively at first base. Time to move on.

 

If he has options, stash him in AAA and see if he improves. He is not a major league hitter now. No plate discipline and not enough hard contact.

[moonslav59]

If he has options, stash him in AAA and see if he improves. He is not a major league hitter now. No plate discipline and not enough hard contact.

 

He does have options- and trade value.

 

Casas is a not a sure bet at 1B, and Dalbec also provides depth at DH and 3B. notin's idea of trying him in the OF may work.

[moonslav59]

They were talking about adding more than 2 middle IFers as being a possibility, although some could be on minor league deals.

 

If I'm a SS or 2Bman looking to get a chance to play, the Sox would be high on my list.

 

I am 100% certain we add a ML middle IF'er before ST'ing.

 

EValdez will not be our opening day infield utility guy.

[notin]

They were talking about adding more than 2 middle IFers as being a possibility, although some could be on minor league deals.

 

If I'm a SS or 2Bman looking to get a chance to play, the Sox would be high on my list.

 

I am 100% certain we add a ML middle IF'er before ST'ing.

 

EValdez will not be our opening day infield utility guy.

 

The Sox are not starting the season with Hernandez and Arroyo both starting up the middle while Arroyo is also the backup shortstop…

[moonslav59]

This is shaping up as a really bad team. Extremely weak up the middle. No power bats except a guy that strikes out 50% of the time and a starting staff full of fragile arms. They will not do as well as least year.

 

You do know Bogey had just 15 HRs in 631 PAs, last year. He and JD combined for 135 RBI. That's almost as much as just JD had in 2018 (130.)

 

I'm not going to accuse anyone of having mistaken opinions, we may very well suck, this year, but I think when some are thinking about us losing Bogey, JD, Nate and others, they are remembering them in their glory days.

 

JD

.330 43 130 in '18

.304 36 105 in '19

not the...

.213 7 27 in 54 games '20

.274 16 62 in '22

 

Bogey

.288 23 103 '18

.309 33 117 '19

not the...

.295 23 27 '21

.307 15 73 '22

 

Nate:

The heroics of 2018

11-9 3.75 in 2021 (32 GS)

not the...

68 IP 5.99 ERA of 2019

6-3 3.87 in just 20 GS and 109 IP of '22

 

I'm not saying I'm happy losing these three, but replacing the more recent versions of them is not as hard as it may seem to be to some, here.

 

Saying we will not do as well as last year is extreme pessimism, IMO, or a misunderstanding of how low the bar is set for improvement:

 

How hard will it be to improve on these positional numbers?

 

.694 Catcher (Replacing Vaz & Plawecki with McGuire & Wong)

.683 1B (The worst 1B season I have ever seen on a Sox team: Casas has arrived.)

.694 LF (One of the worst LF productions by a Sox team in '22: Welcome Yoshida!)

.671 CF (Hard to know what happens here with no Kike in CF)

.661 RF (We may step down on D, but a massive O gain is probable.)

.763 DH (Turner should improve on JD's '22 numbers.)

 

That's 5 of the 9 everyday slots where improvement is not only possible, but probable. Ine 3, it's highly probable we see major gains. (One could argue C is unknown.)

 

.724 2B (Looks like a loss)

.815 SS (Loss)

.856 3B (Could improve as Devers reaches prime)

 

Rotation: many see the 2023 rotation as being almost all one big question mark, but so was the 2022 one, this time, last year, and again, we look to be losing many bad innings, too.

 

2022 SP Innings

180 Pivetta 4.56 (expect about the same: a plus 5th starter)

127 Wacha 3.32 (will be hard to replace his 23 GS, but it's not 33 GS'd)

124 R Hill 4.27 (a decent 26 GS'd needed to be replaced)

109 Nate 3.87 (only 20 starts needing replacement)

This is 69 GS'd needing replacement. That's basically 2 FT SP'er NOT the 3 it appears to be.

 

We added Kluber 25-33 GS +27

Whitlock 9 GS >> 25-33 +22

Bello 11 GS >> 25-33 +20

There is the 69 GS'd replaced.

 

Now, the easy part to improve on:

67 Winckowski 5.75 in 14 GS

61 Crawford 5.43 in 12 GS'd

18 Seabold 11.29 in 5 GSd

6.1 Davis 0.00 in 3 GS'd

That's 34 GS'd needed to be replaced and almost impossible not to greatly improve upon by this year's additions:

Sale

Paxton

Mata

Walter

Houck

(Maybe some better starts from Wink & Crawford, if needed)

 

The pen improvement looks like a no-brainer, but pens are always fickle. I don't expect Schreiber to be the 2022 Schreiber, but guys like Barnes and Houck could balance out the returnees. No more...

51 Sawamura 3.73

48 Davis 6.19

40 Danish 5.13

38 Diekman 4.23

25 Robles 5.84

16 Bazardo 2.76 * Valdez 4.41

10 Familia 6.10

7 DHern 21.60 and others...

 

More and hopefully better from some of these returnees

65 Schreiber 2.22

62 Brasier 5.78

43 Houck 2.70

40 Barnes 4.31

14 Kelly 3.95

4 German 18.00

 

The big boost is the additions:

 

Jansen- one of the most consistent closer over the last 10+ seasons.

Under 1.05 WHIP last 2 seasons. Led league in Svs in 2022 w 41

 

Martin- 0.527 WHIP, last season (1.15 career and 1.03 since 2019) 2.87 FIP since '19

 

Rodriguez- not a great addition but has a solid 3.14 FIP since 2020.

 

I see a plus in the pen, a good chance for a plus in the rotation, a plus at 4-5 of the 9 everyday positions (1B, 3B, LF, RF & C or DH) and a break even at 1-2 others (C or DH).

 

The only sure down slots look to be SS, 2B and CF, but we may be able to lessen the down degrees with another addition or two up the middle.

 

We should be better in 2023, unless we equal the injuries we had in 2022.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

The Sox are not starting the season with Hernandez and Arroyo both starting up the middle while Arroyo is also the backup shortstop…

 

Indeed.

 

We are not going to start the season with 2 middle IF'ers on the 26. We won't have EValdez as the 3rd, either.

 

Bank on it.

 

It is fair to say, as of now, we really suck up the middle, but the rest of the team seems to have improved at all the corners and the pitching staff.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This is shaping up as a really bad team. Extremely weak up the middle. No power bats except a guy that strikes out 50% of the time and a starting staff full of fragile arms. They will not do as well as least year.

 

"LEAST YEAR" -- can I use that?

 

Wait til least year. Hopefully, last year was least year. At least next year won't be least year.

[notin]

Indeed.

 

We are not going to start the season with 2 middle IF'ers on the 26. We won't have EValdez as the 3rd, either.

 

Bank on it.

 

It is fair to say, as of now, we really suck up the middle, but the rest of the team seems to have improved at all the corners and the pitching staff.

 

 

Some Padre blogger is pushing a trade of Kim and Grisham for Houck and Verdugo.

 

I do that. The Sox upgrade defensively at 4 positions. Although they would have to replace Houck’s arm in the pen. Given that Roster Resource has the Padres left fielder as Matt Carpenter, this deal makes sense for the Padres, too…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I can't believe it, but I believe Sam Kennedy. At least what he said today about the Red Sox fans at Winter Weekend, who booed Henry, Bloom and their minions:

 

“Last night was awesome. It’s what you expect when you have a last-place finish,” he said. “The worst thing you could have is apathy. They let us know the nation is restless. There’s one way to sort of change the tide, and it’s pretty simple. We’ve gotta win baseball games.”

[moonslav59]

Some Padre blogger is pushing a trade of Kim and Grisham for Houck and Verdugo.

 

I do that. The Sox upgrade defensively at 4 positions. Although they would have to replace Houck’s arm in the pen. Given that Roster Resource has the Padres left fielder as Matt Carpenter, this deal makes sense for the Padres, too…

 

I'd do this in a heartbeat.We'd have to add more pieces to get it done (Duran, Wink, Crawford or even Murphy would be ideal, but I doubt the Padres want any of these guys on their 40. Maybe Murphy.) Maybe they take Houck, Dugo and a non 40 man prospect like Romero, Yorke or Anthony.

 

They each have 3 years of control, so maybe we are paying for more years than we need, but we could always trade Kim or Story, if and when Mayer wins the FT SS job. I guess Kim can even play 2B and OF, so maybe we keep 'em all.

[moonslav59]

BTV accepted:

 

Houck, Dugo, Anthony & Paulino

 

for

 

3 years each from Grisham & Kim

 

Would you do that?

[moonslav59]

I can't believe it, but I believe Sam Kennedy. At least what he said today about the Red Sox fans at Winter Weekend, who booed Henry, Bloom and their minions:

 

“Last night was awesome. It’s what you expect when you have a last-place finish,” he said. “The worst thing you could have is apathy. They let us know the nation is restless. There’s one way to sort of change the tide, and it’s pretty simple. We’ve gotta win baseball games.”

 

Crybaby fans make a difference.

 

Maybe my choice of words was not great, but it's true.

[Hugh2]

This is shaping up as a really bad team. Extremely weak up the middle. No power bats except a guy that strikes out 50% of the time and a starting staff full of fragile arms. They will not do as well as least year.

 

I'm not saying this a great team, but I'd be willing to bet they win more games than they did in 2022.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Crybaby fans make a difference.

 

Maybe my choice of words was not great, but it's true.

 

Fans that care... about their hobby, their identification with a team/city/region, and their investments in time and money.

Edited January 21, 2023 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75