A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

I'm not saying this a great team, but I'd be willing to bet they win more games than they did in 2022.

 

I think they should as well, but that's easy to think in January when no one is injured yet.

 

Probably worth remembering too that last year, they did win 78 games. While that is certainly not an impressive win total, it's not such a given for any team to beat as well. I mean, they were basically a .500 team...

[Bellhorn04]

Crybaby fans make a difference.

 

Maybe my choice of words was not great, but it's true.

 

The choice of words definitely needs an upgrade.

 

The word that used to be popular was "passionate".

[dgalehouse]

I can't believe it, but I believe Sam Kennedy. At least what he said today about the Red Sox fans at Winter Weekend, who booed Henry, Bloom and their minions:

 

“Last night was awesome. It’s what you expect when you have a last-place finish,” he said. “The worst thing you could have is apathy. They let us know the nation is restless. There’s one way to sort of change the tide, and it’s pretty simple. We’ve gotta win baseball games.”

 

Sam is just saying the same thing many of us have been saying all along. We want to see a good , exciting , competitive ballclub. And we are not happy with things at present. Do better.

[Hugh2]

I think they should as well, but that's easy to think in January when no one is injured yet.

 

Probably worth remembering too that last year, they did win 78 games. While that is certainly not an impressive win total, it's not such a given for any team to beat as well. I mean, they were basically a .500 team...

 

I don't think this is a team that will be playing in October, maybe they compete for a WC if a lot breaks right. But I'd take the over on 78 wins. I'd run to Vegas on that.

[moonslav59]

Fans that care... about their hobby, their identification with a team/city/region, and their investments in time and money.

 

Agreed, and I did not mean "crybaby" as always being a bad thing. I've been known to "cry" about a few things, too.

 

I do think the fear of "crybaby fans" kept us from having even a mini-fire sale, last summer that kept us from resetting, but more importantly hurt our comp pick positions in the next draft. All we had to do was trade JD for a single A prospects, and we'd be better off.

 

We could have also traded Bogey, if he agreed to waive the no-trade clause, Nate, Wacha, Hill & Strahm for prospects or ML players. Look what we got for Diekman, Vaz and Groome.

 

It's not a huge deal. We'd have likely stayed under the tax line, again this year, so that part is not all that bad, but sometimes complaining fans can keep a team from improving their longer term outlook out of fear of backlash from fans wanting more now, now and RIGHT NOW!

[moonslav59]

The choice of words definitely needs an upgrade.

 

The word that used to be popular was "passionate".

 

The thing is, not all "passionate fans" are focused on just the here and now. My term "crybaby" was directed towards the many fans that want us to win right now and aren't that interested in improving comp pick positioning in the next draft. I could still choose a better word for them and am open to suggestions.

 

It's not like I don't want us to win now. I was okay with the DD plan and was willing to sacrifice the longer term for an exceptional winning window that I had hoped and expected would last more than just 3 years, and I think there are times when that sort of plan is called for or more conducive to "going for it" - maybe not to the extent DD did, but maybe a happy medium somewhere in between.

 

I'm probably in the minority for caring more about the future than 2023. I'm not thinking about a 5 year plan, starting now. To me, the 5 year plan started in 2019 or 2020, and I'm expecting a highly competitive team by 2024 or 2025, at the very latest. I had hoped, this winter could have gotten us there, but with the shocking prices the top FAs got, this winter, my hopes and expectations were tempered down a bit.

 

[a700hitter]

Weaker up the middle than last year at 3 of the 4 positions defensively— 2B, SS and CF. Weaker offensively at 3 of those 4 positions - 2B, SS and C. They didn’t add a power stick which was needed. It isn’t an argument that JD and Bogey didn’t provide much power last year. They were weak in that regard in 22 and haven’t addressed it for 23. The pitching will be better only if Sale stays healthy. The rest of the staff is bottom of the rotation garbage. The bullpen couldn’t be worse and has probably improved. If the team has improved overall, I don’t see them winning more than 81 games. There are just too many glaring weaknesses.

[moonslav59]

I don't think this is a team that will be playing in October, maybe they compete for a WC if a lot breaks right. But I'd take the over on 78 wins. I'd run to Vegas on that.

 

I think we will be a better team in 2023 than 2022.

 

I think the schedule changes would give us more wins, even if we were equal to last year's team, so I'm thinking 82-85 wins is an odds on possibility. I think we will have a decent chance at winning 86-89 wins, which is likely enough to secure a WC slot. Winning 90 or more would take a lot going right, and to me, is not likely.

 

I see a lot of possibilities for things going right, and the sheer number of them gives me hope, because we don't need all or even 90% of these things to go right to have a chance at winning 86-87 games or more in 2023. Last season, those were the win totals of the worst playoff teams in the AL and NL.

 

Think about it, how many of these possibilities do we need to happen to win 87+ games? How many to win 90+?

 

Sale starts 20+ games and looks decent.

Paxton starts 18+ games and looks decent.

Pivetts remains a top 5 fifth starter and gives us 180+ IP

Whitlock thrives as a SP'er and gives us a good 28+ GS'd.

Kluber gives us 24+ good GS'd.

Bello has a decent sophomore year with 24+ GS'd.

One or two out of Mata, Walter, Murphy, Crawford or Winckowski fill in the cracks from some of the above happenings not going right.

 

Jansen, Martin, Houck, Schreiber and Barnes provide enough solid pen IP to greatly improve on our 2022 numbers.

Rodriguez, Mills, Taylor, Braiser, Kelly, German and converted SP'er provide pen depth better than the 2022 pen did.

 

Devers improves as he enters peak prime- offense and defense.

Verdugo's improved conditioning over the winter brings him back to earlier career numbers.

Yoshida and Turner's bats come close to replacing the 2022 offensive production lost by the departing Bogey & JD.

Casas greatly improves the defense and offense from the 2022 1B production.

McGuire and Wong keeps us about equal to what Vaz-Plaw gave us. Maybe better D outweighs worse O.

More games and better PAs by Kike and improved D at SS can help lessen other losses.

Duval and more play from Refsnyder improves on what we got from JBJ, Cordero, Pham and Duran in '22.

Arroyo and whoever we add, this winter at middle IF can help keep the losses of Bogey and Story to more of a minimum.

Farm depth of everyday players like EValdez, Alfaro, Tapia, Dalbec, Duran, Hamilton, Koss, Rafaela and maybe even Mayer, late in the season can improve upon what we got in 2022.

 

I listed 18 things, here with some being several players lumped together. I'm thinking we might need 9-10 to go right with 4-5 coming close to be better in '23.

Maybe 11-12 need to go right to make the playoffs and 12-14 to get close to 90 wins.

 

We could also look at it from the perspective of how many of these 18 can go grossly wrong to still be able to overcome and make the playoffs.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Weaker up the middle than last year at 3 of the 4 positions defensively— 2B, SS and CF. Weaker offensively at 3 of those 4 positions - 2B, SS and C. They didn’t add a power stick which was needed. It isn’t an argument that JD and Bogey didn’t provide much power last year. They were weak in that regard in 22 and haven’t addressed it for 23. The pitching will be better only if Sale stays healthy. The rest of the staff is bottom of the rotation garbage. The bullpen couldn’t be worse and has probably improved. If the team has improved overall, I don’t see them winning more than 81 games. There are just too many glaring weaknesses.

 

It's not just Bogey's power being down, his RBI production fell sharply in '21 and '22. (152 RBI in '21-'22 combined.) That's not all that hard to come close to replacing, and his D was not all that great.

 

I agree, we will be worse on O at SS and 2B, but the bar is not all that high to approach:

.724 OPS at 2B (97 RBI)

.815 OPS at SS (79 RBI)

 

I disagree that our O at catcher is a sure decline. Our catching position had a .694 OPS in 2022, and that was helped a bit by McGuire's .834 OPS as a catcher.)

 

The bottom of the rotation is not "garbage" and looks to be as good or better than 2022, especially in depth.

 

To say the pen is "probably better" is a gross understatement.

 

Yes, up the middle matters, but it's not the only thing.

 

Our defense should be better at C, SS and maybe CF. Our O could be better at CF and equal at Catcher.

[moonslav59]

Simon Hampton reports that Story feels he will play in 2023...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/trevor-story-confident-hell-play-in-2023.html

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think we will be a better team in 2023 than 2022.

 

I think the schedule changes would give us more wins, even if we were equal to last year's team, so I'm thinking 82-85 wins is an odds on possibility. I think we will have a decent chance at winning 86-89 wins, which is likely enough to secure a WC slot. Winning 90 or more would take a lot going right, and to me, is not likely.

 

I see a lot of possibilities for things going right, and the sheer number of them gives me hope, because we don't need all or even 90% of these things to go right to have a chance at winning 86-87 games or more in 2023. Last season, those were the win totals of the worst playoff teams in the AL and NL.

 

Think about it, how many of these possibilities do we need to happen to win 87+ games? How many to win 90+?

 

Sale starts 20+ games and looks decent.

Paxton starts 18+ games and looks decent.

Pivetts remains a top 5 fifth starter and gives us 180+ IP

Whitlock thrives as a SP'er and gives us a good 28+ GS'd.

Kluber gives us 24+ good GS'd.

Bello has a decent sophomore year with 24+ GS'd.

One or two out of Mata, Walter, Murphy, Crawford or Winckowski fill in the cracks from some of the above happenings not going right.

 

Jansen, Martin, Houck, Schreiber and Barnes provide enough solid pen IP to greatly improve on our 2022 numbers.

Rodriguez, Mills, Taylor, Braiser, Kelly, German and converted SP'er provide pen depth better than the 2022 pen did.

 

Devers improves as he enters peak prime- offense and defense.

Verdugo's improved conditioning over the winter brings him back to earlier career numbers.

Yoshida and Turner's bats come close to replacing the 2022 offensive production lost by the departing Bogey & JD.

Casas greatly improves the defense and offense from the 2022 1B production.

McGuire and Wong keeps us about equal to what Vaz-Plaw gave us. Maybe better D outweighs worse O.

More games and better PAs by Kike and improved D at SS can help lessen other losses.

Duval and more play from Refsnyder improves on what we got from JBJ, Cordero, Pham and Duran in '22.

Arroyo and whoever we add, this winter at middle IF can help keep the losses of Bogey and Story to more of a minimum.

Farm depth of everyday players like EValdez, Alfaro, Tapia, Dalbec, Duran, Hamilton, Koss, Rafaela and maybe even Mayer, late in the season can improve upon what we got in 2022.

 

I listed 18 things, here with some being several players lumped together. I'm thinking we might need 9-10 to go right with 4-5 coming close to be better in '23.

Maybe 11-12 need to go right to make the playoffs and 12-14 to get close to 90 wins.

 

We could also look at it from the perspective of how many of these 18 can go grossly wrong to still be able to overcome and make the playoffs.

 

 

 

 

After all this, I'd still just rather the Red Sox had Rodon for the next six years and the Yankees didn't. That apparently wasn't "a bet" Bloom was willing to make to surround Raffy, though six years is a long time to wait for the Sox to finally be good enough to spend on quality pitching in its prime...

[moonslav59]

After all this, I'd still just rather the Red Sox had Rodon for the next six years and the Yankees didn't. That apparently wasn't "a bet" Bloom was willing to make to surround Raffy, though six years is a long time to wait for the Sox to finally be good enough to spend on quality pitching in its prime...

 

Rodon would not be the guy I bet on. Not even close.

[notin]

After all this, I'd still just rather the Red Sox had Rodon for the next six years and the Yankees didn't. That apparently wasn't "a bet" Bloom was willing to make to surround Raffy, though six years is a long time to wait for the Sox to finally be good enough to spend on quality pitching in its prime...

 

 

I’d only sign Rodon if he allowed for a slew of Lackey-style protection clauses (or if I could get him on a four year deal). He’s insanely talented. But he just can’t stay on the mound…

[harmony]

I think we will be a better team in 2023 than 2022.

 

I think the schedule changes would give us more wins, even if we were equal to last year's team, so I'm thinking 82-85 wins is an odds on possibility. I think we will have a decent chance at winning 86-89 wins, which is likely enough to secure a WC slot. Winning 90 or more would take a lot going right, and to me, is not likely.

 

I see a lot of possibilities for things going right, and the sheer number of them gives me hope, because we don't need all or even 90% of these things to go right to have a chance at winning 86-87 games or more in 2023. Last season, those were the win totals of the worst playoff teams in the AL and NL.

 

Think about it, how many of these possibilities do we need to happen to win 87+ games? How many to win 90+?

 

Sale starts 20+ games and looks decent.

Paxton starts 18+ games and looks decent.

Pivetts remains a top 5 fifth starter and gives us 180+ IP

Whitlock thrives as a SP'er and gives us a good 28+ GS'd.

Kluber gives us 24+ good GS'd.

Bello has a decent sophomore year with 24+ GS'd.

One or two out of Mata, Walter, Murphy, Crawford or Winckowski fill in the cracks from some of the above happenings not going right.

 

Jansen, Martin, Houck, Schreiber and Barnes provide enough solid pen IP to greatly improve on our 2022 numbers.

Rodriguez, Mills, Taylor, Braiser, Kelly, German and converted SP'er provide pen depth better than the 2022 pen did.

 

Devers improves as he enters peak prime- offense and defense.

Verdugo's improved conditioning over the winter brings him back to earlier career numbers.

Yoshida and Turner's bats come close to replacing the 2022 offensive production lost by the departing Bogey & JD.

Casas greatly improves the defense and offense from the 2022 1B production.

McGuire and Wong keeps us about equal to what Vaz-Plaw gave us. Maybe better D outweighs worse O.

More games and better PAs by Kike and improved D at SS can help lessen other losses.

Duval and more play from Refsnyder improves on what we got from JBJ, Cordero, Pham and Duran in '22.

Arroyo and whoever we add, this winter at middle IF can help keep the losses of Bogey and Story to more of a minimum.

Farm depth of everyday players like EValdez, Alfaro, Tapia, Dalbec, Duran, Hamilton, Koss, Rafaela and maybe even Mayer, late in the season can improve upon what we got in 2022.

 

I listed 18 things, here with some being several players lumped together. I'm thinking we might need 9-10 to go right with 4-5 coming close to be better in '23.

Maybe 11-12 need to go right to make the playoffs and 12-14 to get close to 90 wins.

 

We could also look at it from the perspective of how many of these 18 can go grossly wrong to still be able to overcome and make the playoffs.

 

 

 

Earlier this week ESPN released its early 2023 MLB power rankings:

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35466344/mlb-power-rankings-preseason-2023-braves-padres

 

Earlier this month MLB.com released its early MLB power rankings:

 

MLB New Year's Power Rankings 2023

WWW.MLB.COM

---

While it’s still the offseason, the New Year provides a perfect mile-marker for baseball fans. It’s almost the halfway point between the World Series ending, and Spring Training games beginning. At MLB.com, we produce two way-too-early Power Rankings during the offseason. The first one lands before the confetti has even

[moonslav59]

Earlier this week ESPN released its early 2023 MLB power rankings:

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35466344/mlb-power-rankings-preseason-2023-braves-padres

 

Earlier this month MLB.com released its early MLB power rankings:

 

MLB New Year's Power Rankings 2023

WWW.MLB.COM

---

While it’s still the offseason, the New Year provides a perfect mile-marker for baseball fans. It’s almost the halfway point between the World Series ending, and Spring Training games beginning. At MLB.com, we produce two way-too-early Power Rankings during the offseason. The first one lands before the confetti has even

 

I guess they all think most of these 18 things will not go right for the Sox.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

After three injury-riddled seasons, Chris Sale told reporters (including The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham) that he is “very, very excited” about being healthy and heading for his first normal Spring Training since 2019. Between a Tommy John surgery, a fractured rib, and fractures to his finger and wrist, Sale has pitched only 48 1/3 Major League innings since the start of the 2020 season, which was also the first season of a five-year, $145MM contract extension Sale had signed with the Red Sox the year prior. Given the lack of return on this extension, Sale feels “I owe my teammates the starting pitcher they thought they were going to get. I owe the front office the starting pitcher they paid for. I owe the fans performances they’re paying to come and see.” Looking for a silver lining to his injury woes, Sale noted “that’s three years of [pitching] that’s not on my arm” as he enters his age-34 season. “That’s not going on the odometer. I’ve kept myself in really good physical shape. My arm’s feeling good. I don’t have any hesitation going forward with pitching.”

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

After three injury-riddled seasons, Chris Sale told reporters (including The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham) that he is “very, very excited” about being healthy and heading for his first normal Spring Training since 2019. Between a Tommy John surgery, a fractured rib, and fractures to his finger and wrist, Sale has pitched only 48 1/3 Major League innings since the start of the 2020 season, which was also the first season of a five-year, $145MM contract extension Sale had signed with the Red Sox the year prior. Given the lack of return on this extension, Sale feels “I owe my teammates the starting pitcher they thought they were going to get. I owe the front office the starting pitcher they paid for. I owe the fans performances they’re paying to come and see.” Looking for a silver lining to his injury woes, Sale noted “that’s three years of [pitching] that’s not on my arm” as he enters his age-34 season. “That’s not going on the odometer. I’ve kept myself in really good physical shape. My arm’s feeling good. I don’t have any hesitation going forward with pitching.”

 

Some of the updsides on the what ifs, this season are pretty damn high.

[jacksonianmarch]

You thought the same thing last year until a stiff wind broke Sale's ribs while throwing

[moonslav59]

You thought the same thing last year until a stiff wind broke Sale's ribs while throwing

 

 

There is hope he can stay healthy.

 

Better hope no stiff wind blows when Rodon is pitching.

[Bellhorn04]

The thing is, not all "passionate fans" are focused on just the here and now. My term "crybaby" was directed towards the many fans that want us to win right now and aren't that interested in improving comp pick positioning in the next draft. I could still choose a better word for them and am open to suggestions.

 

The fanbase is made up of a wide assortment of human beings of all ages. And the large majority of them are not as "sophisticated" about all the nuances as we are. They are much more interested in the team on the field than they are about the future implications of not trading JD Martinez at the deadline.

 

Many of them shell out substantial sums to go to the games or watch on NESN.

 

It's those fans I'm thinking about when I say you can't have a fire sale when you're 3 games out of the playoffs with 2 months to go.

[Old Red]

The fanbase is made up of a wide assortment of human beings of all ages. And the large majority of them are not as "sophisticated" about all the nuances as we are. They are much more interested in the team on the field than they are about the future implications of not trading JD Martinez at the deadline.

 

Many of them shell out substantial sums to go to the games or watch on NESN.

 

It's those fans I'm thinking about when I say you can't have a fire sale when you're 3 games out of the playoffs with 2 months to go.

 

Well said, and I agree 100%, but some just don’t seem to understand that.

[moonslav59]

The fanbase is made up of a wide assortment of human beings of all ages. And the large majority of them are not as "sophisticated" about all the nuances as we are. They are much more interested in the team on the field than they are about the future implications of not trading JD Martinez at the deadline.

 

Many of them shell out substantial sums to go to the games or watch on NESN.

 

It's those fans I'm thinking about when I say you can't have a fire sale when you're 3 games out of the playoffs with 2 months to go.

 

I totally understand their thinking and never said they were wrong. I complain a bout things, too- usually different things from most others.

 

Some complained just trading Vaz away was too much and signaled to the clubhouse we were giving up, when in reality, McGuire ended up doing better than Vaz and Pham did better than Cordero/Duran. Hosmer might have improved on Dalbec/Cordero but he hardly played.

 

My point was that I felt the fear of upsetting too many fans, for all the reasons you gave and more, was a major factor in their decision not to at least trade JD. I get it. Really, I do. I also remember we were not far from the last WC slot, but I also remember there were several teams between us and the playoffs, and in my opinion, which is on the opposite side of the "playoffs are a crapshoot" spectrum than you and others- the 2022 Red Sox had close to zero chance at winning a ring by mid July.

 

Okay, bring up the Phillies, who by the way won 5 in a row to end July and were 8 games over .500 on August 1st. They had 5 teams ahead of them: we had 8 and were tied with CWS at .500, so basically 9 teams.

 

The team made the choice for various reasons combined. I wish they had made another choice, and it's not in hindsight. Several of us felt this way, and I am pretty certain, we were a small minority.

 

I wish we had better comp picks and more bonus money to spend, this next draft.

 

I wish we'd have better prospects by getting something back for players we lost for nothing. I fully understand there would have been many upset fans, especially those who paid big money for tickets to games after the deadline and not seeing Bogey, JD, Nate, Wacha, Hill and Strahm.

 

As it turned out, the team ended up being marginally better on paper after the deadline, due to the trades, but fans were still pissed, so management didn't even get what they wanted to get, anyway.

[moonslav59]

Well said, and I agree 100%, but some just don’t seem to understand that.

 

You constantly equate disagreeing with not understanding.

 

Like if we just understood the issue fully, we'd have to see your side is right.

[notin]

Well said, and I agree 100%, but some just don’t seem to understand that.

 

You would be up there as well. Just because someone criticized you doesn’t mean you’re innocent…

[harmony]

I guess they all think most of these 18 things will not go right for the Sox.

Much hinges on the health of Chris Sale and James Paxton, who enter their age 34 seasons after combining for only 70 MLB innings* over the past three seasons.

 

It would be risky for a team to rely on a starter whose injuries limited the pitcher to only 70 innings the previous season. The combined risk with Sale and Paxton might be sixfold.

 

Or not.

* 79 innings including Sale's nine postseason innings in 2021

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Much hinges on the health of Chris Sale and James Paxton, who enter their age 34 seasons after combining for only 70 MLB innings* over the past three seasons.

 

It would be risky for a team to rely on a starter whose injuries limited the pitcher to only 70 innings the previous season. The combined risk with Sale and Paxton might be sixfold.

 

Or not.

* 79 innings including Sale's nine postseason innings in 2021

 

Sixfold? As in a six-man rotation folding? I don't think every starter will get hurt again or not regain past glory...

 

... I'm confident that Brayan Bello will be better this year.

[notin]

Much hinges on the health of Chris Sale and James Paxton, who enter their age 34 seasons after combining for only 70 MLB innings* over the past three seasons.

 

It would be risky for a team to rely on a starter whose injuries limited the pitcher to only 70 innings the previous season. The combined risk with Sale and Paxton might be sixfold.

 

Or not.

* 79 innings including Sale's nine postseason innings in 2021

 

 

Just like how relying on a 38yo pitcher with 6 total innings in 2020 and 2021 completely derailed the Astros’ season.

 

Not saying Sale is without risk, but sweeping generalizations about recovery just don’t apply universally…

[Old Red]

You constantly equate disagreeing with not understanding.

 

Like if we just understood the issue fully, we'd have to see your side is right.

 

I think most Red Sox fans right now would like to see Mookie in RF, and Bogey at SS next year when they pay some of the highest prices in baseball when they go to Fenway, and Don’t care about cliffs, or the lux tax, or any other such things. They want to see the team win here, and now, and get into the postseason, and a shot at the WS. They are not crybabies just, because you like to label them that way. It takes a crybaby to know a crybaby, and I’ll gladly admit I’m one of those crybabies, but there is no bigger crybaby on here than you when you go on, and on about how people that criticize Bloom are Bashers.

[Old Red]

You would be up there as well. Just because someone criticized you doesn’t mean you’re innocent…

 

Wha, wha, wha!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just like how relying on a 38yo pitcher with 6 total innings in 2020 and 2021 completely derailed the Astros’ season.

 

Not saying Sale is without risk, but sweeping generalizations about recovery just don’t apply universally…

 

Some might call Verlander a freak of nature, bouncing back like he did at his age. But looking at body types, deliveries, sources of power (non-spousal division) -- a whipper snapper like Sale weighing 40 pounds less has to be more of a longshot to regain dominance.

 

A big concern is how Sale maintains leg strength, now that bike-riding has to be outlawed by the Sox. They also won't let him work out by lifting big screen TVs -- or even watch a funny show on one, lest he crack a rib laughing.