A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

He should be "fine," yes. However, it's going to sap his power numbers even further IMO. He better put some good road numbers up at Coors.

 

He's never been a big power guy though, other than the juiced ball year of 2019.

[mvp 78]

2023 Win Projections (bb-ref): Kluber and Pivetta 9 each, Whitlock 5, Houck-Bello-Sale 4 each, Paxton 3.

 

That's 38 wins by the starting rotation. We only need to find a 50-game winner somewhere and we could be a wild card!

 

The floor is in the kitchen with a gaping hole in it next to the hot stove... and guess what we're looking at.

 

We're not allowed those anymore. Best we can do is a hot plate. Maybe a used 600W microwave?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We have a new sheriff in town!

 

Ask him if we can post pictures of shortstops on his Most Wanted wall.

[mvp 78]

He's never been a big power guy though, other than the juiced ball year of 2019.

 

You think he'll have SLG north of 500 again? Those 2018 numbers were pretty damn good too.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We're not allowed those anymore. Best we can do is a hot plate. Maybe a used 600W microwave?

 

Be careful if Sam Kennedy warms up your meal. He won't remove the plastic on the frozen dinner and all toxins will seep into your food.

[notin]

You think he'll have SLG north of 500 again? Those 2018 numbers were pretty damn good too.

 

Also 5 years old…

[Bellhorn04]

You think he'll have SLG north of 500 again? Those 2018 numbers were pretty damn good too.

 

I'm an OPS+ guy.

 

2018 135

2019 139

2020 128

2021 129

2022 131

[notin]

Juan Soto had an OPS+ of 130 for the Padres last year, which translated to a .778 OPS. Assuming league averages stay roughly the same, does that seem right for Bogaerts? And if he posts a .778, will some folks suddenly think we unloaded him at the right time?

[moonslav59]

The fact that you have to always have the last word is a major flaw in your rants.

 

Indeed. Duly noted.

[moonslav59]

I'm an OPS+ guy.

 

2018 135

2019 139

2020 128

2021 129

2022 131

 

The consistency is amazing! I wonder how many players with a ton of PAs over those 5 seasons fall in a range of 7. (128-135)

[moonslav59]

Juan Soto had an OPS+ of 130 for the Padres last year, which translated to a .778 OPS. Assuming league averages stay roughly the same, does that seem right for Bogaerts? And if he posts a .778, will some folks suddenly think we unloaded him at the right time?

 

To me, OBP matters more, so Bogey actually got better where it matters most. He only had one blip, where is OBP went down and that was after his .384 spike in 2019:

 

.343 '17

.360 '18

.384 '19

.364 '20

.370 '21

.377 '22

 

His SLG followed a bell curve starting in 2017:

 

.403> .522> .555 (2019)> .502> .493> .456

[mvp 78]

Be careful if Sam Kennedy warms up your meal. He won't remove the plastic on the frozen dinner and all toxins will seep into your food.

 

My body is 50% micro plastic anyway.

[mvp 78]

I'm an OPS+ guy.

 

2018 135

2019 139

2020 128

2021 129

2022 131

 

That's fine.

[mvp 78]

Juan Soto had an OPS+ of 130 for the Padres last year, which translated to a .778 OPS. Assuming league averages stay roughly the same, does that seem right for Bogaerts? And if he posts a .778, will some folks suddenly think we unloaded him at the right time?

 

Unloaded? He's not worth the contract unless that OPS stays there for another 6+ years.

[moonslav59]

Unloaded? He's not worth the contract unless that OPS stays there for another 6+ years.

 

He'll be 29 in 6 years, so there's a good chance he will.

[mvp 78]

He'll be 29 in 6 years, so there's a good chance he will.

 

Xander will not be 29 in 6 years.

[moonslav59]

It looks like 2B, SS and CF look to be the only positions still a bit in flux, although it appears Duvall is the CF'er and Kike will be handed the SS job. 2B is Arroyo's to keep, if he can stay healthy.

 

Kike is probably the best defender at all three positions.

 

My depth chart

 

CF

Kike

Duvall

Tapia

Refsnyder

Duran

 

2B

Kike

Arroyo

EValdez

Hamilton

Goodrum NR

EDiaz NR

 

SS

Kike

Arroyo

Hamilton

EDiaz NR

CKoss NR

Mayer NR

[moonslav59]

Unloaded? He's not worth the contract unless that OPS stays there for another 6+ years.

 

I thought you were responding to the part of the post about Soto, but it's clearly about Bogey.

 

My bad.

[notin]

It looks like 2B, SS and CF look to be the only positions still a bit in flux, although it appears Duvall is the CF'er and Kike will be handed the SS job. 2B is Arroyo's to keep, if he can stay healthy.

 

Kike is probably the best defender at all three positions.

 

My depth chart

 

CF

Kike

Duvall

Tapia

Refsnyder

Duran

 

2B

Kike

Arroyo

EValdez

Hamilton

Goodrum NR

EDiaz NR

 

SS

Kike

Arroyo

Hamilton

EDiaz NR

CKoss NR

Mayer NR

 

Maybe it’s time to return Duran to 2b…

[moonslav59]

Maybe it’s time to return Duran to 2b…

 

He'd be last on that list, too.

[Nick]

It looks like 2B, SS and CF look to be the only positions still a bit in flux, although it appears Duvall is the CF'er and Kike will be handed the SS job. 2B is Arroyo's to keep, if he can stay healthy.

 

Kike is probably the best defender at all three positions.

 

My depth chart

 

CF

Kike

Duvall

Tapia

Refsnyder

Duran

 

2B

Kike

Arroyo

EValdez

Hamilton

Goodrum NR

EDiaz NR

 

SS

Kike

Arroyo

Hamilton

EDiaz NR

CKoss NR

Mayer NR

 

Any chance we can move past the fact that Arroyo has been injury prone as a Sox for past two year?

 

He is coming into his prime. This will be his age 28 season. There's no reason to think he can't play 150 games. Is he out of shape? Do you expect him to get hurt every year until he retires?

 

He can be a full time regular. To go into each season that a position player can't play 150 games is little silly.

 

Do you think front office thinks well Arroyo is only good for 75 games even before he is hurt?

[moonslav59]

Any chance we can move past the fact that Arroyo has been injury prone as a Sox for past two year?

 

He is coming into his prime. This will be his age 28 season. There's no reason to think he can't play 150 games. Is he out of shape? Do you expect him to get hurt every year until he retires?

 

He can be a full time regular. To go into each season that a position player can't play 150 games is little silly.

 

Do you think front office thinks well Arroyo is only good for 75 games even before he is hurt?

 

It's hard to figure what to expect, let alone what someone else expects.

 

Are there many examples of players who missed so much time, and then suddenly started playing 150+ games a few years in a row? Probably. Is it common? I'd like to know.

 

With a guy like Arroyo, it's hard to know if so many seasons with few games players was about injuries or just not being good enough.

 

He played 119 games in AA back in 2016, then minors + majors=

59 '17

68 '18

49 '19

15 '20 (short season)

68 '21

91 '22

 

You ask a good question, but I'll ask, why should we expect 100+ games from him, let alone 150+?

 

He does have a 102 OPS+ since 2020, which for a middle IF'er is very nice, but it's just 535 PAs, combined

Edited January 23, 2023 by moonslav59

[Nick]

It's hard to figure what to expect, let alone what someone else expects.

 

Are there many examples of players who missed so much time, and then suddenly started playing 150+ games a few years in a row? Probably. Is it common? I'd like to know.

 

With a guy like Arroyo, it's hard to know if so many seasons with few games players was about injuries or just not being good enough.

 

He played 119 games in AA back in 2016, then minors + majors=

59 '17

68 '18

49 '19

15 '20 (short season)

68 '21

91 '22

 

You ask a good question, but I'll ask, why should we expect 100+ games from him, let alone 150+?

 

 

 

Because as of today 1/23/2023, like many Sox position players, he is ready to go for spring training. Is he hurt right now?

[mvp 78]

It's hard to figure what to expect, let alone what someone else expects.

 

Are there many examples of players who missed so much time, and then suddenly started playing 150+ games a few years in a row? Probably. Is it common? I'd like to know.

 

With a guy like Arroyo, it's hard to know if so many seasons with few games players was about injuries or just not being good enough.

 

He played 119 games in AA back in 2016, then minors + majors=

59 '17

68 '18

49 '19

15 '20 (short season)

68 '21

91 '22

 

You ask a good question, but I'll ask, why should we expect 100+ games from him, let alone 150+?

 

He does have a 102 OPS+ since 2020, which for a middle IF'er is very nice, but it's just 535 PAs, combined

 

With Arroyo, it was injuries.

 

Give this a read: https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/8/10/23300177/red-sox-news-christian-arroyo-superstar-in-waiting-giants-rays

[mvp 78]

Maybe it’s time to return Duran to 2b…

 

I've mentioned this before. I think they should have seen the failed OF experiment for what it was prior to last season. Maybe he's not good at 2b either?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Because as of today 1/23/2023, like many Sox position players, he is ready to go for spring training. Is he hurt right now?

 

I dunno -- everyone is good to go right now. According to interviews at Winter Weekend, Sale-Whitlock-Houck are all fully recovered and ready to rock -- on the same weekend in January! We're saved!

 

Still not sure about Paxton, though -- he may not be ready yet to fly like an eagle... would you take: howl like a beagle?

[moonslav59]

Because as of today 1/23/2023, like many Sox position players, he is ready to go for spring training. Is he hurt right now?

 

Give him a few minutes.

[Nick]

Give him a few minutes.

 

Moon, you are killing me.

 

You are half empty guy on few topics, usually you're optimistic.

(of course you'll respond "I'm realist)......beat goes on.

 

I'm counting on Casas, Arroyo, Kike, Devers to play 140+ games.

 

They are paid to play, no?

[Bellhorn04]

Moon, you are killing me.

 

You are half empty guy on few topics, usually you're optimistic.

(of course you'll respond "I'm realist)......beat goes on.

 

I'm counting on Casas, Arroyo, Kike, Devers to play 140+ games.

 

They are paid to play, no?

 

Counting on Arroyo for 140 could be a mistake, though. His history says he's injury-prone, and because he's injury-prone and hasn't played anything like a full season, he's more likely to wear down faster.

[a700hitter]

My body is 50% micro plastic anyway.

Look at the bright side. You will never decompose.