A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

It's risky to count on Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck to break out this year to be anything more than a No. 5 starter.

 

FWIW Roster Resource currently has Nick Pivetta as the No. 3 Red Sox starter ahead of James Paxton and Garrett Whitlock.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox

 

Nothing wrong with optimism but expectations should be tempered.

 

Don't worry, any 2023 optimists are more than balanced out by pessimists here.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's risky to count on Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck to break out this year to be anything more than a No. 5 starter.

 

FWIW Roster Resource currently has Nick Pivetta as the No. 3 Red Sox starter ahead of James Paxton and Garrett Whitlock.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox

 

Nothing wrong with optimism but expectations should be tempered.

 

I've been trying to keep my temper all winter with this projected pitching staff. But give me Bello, Whitlock and Houck over the ghosts of Sale/Kluber/Paxton and I'll take my chances.

 

Just like Seattle will with its under-30 starting rotation. Would you take that over Texas' big money oldster staff?

[notin]

It's risky to count on Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck to break out this year to be anything more than a No. 5 starter.

 

FWIW Roster Resource currently has Nick Pivetta as the No. 3 Red Sox starter ahead of James Paxton and Garrett Whitlock.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox

 

Nothing wrong with optimism but expectations should be tempered.

 

“Tempered expectations” is inconsistent with true fanaticism…

[harmony]

I've been trying to keep my temper all winter with this projected pitching staff. But give me Bello, Whitlock and Houck over the ghosts of Sale/Kluber/Paxton and I'll take my chances.

 

Just like Seattle will with its under-30 starting rotation. Would you take that over Texas' big money oldster staff?

Returning its seven starters from last year's 90-win team, the Seattle starting rotation risks regression because in 2022 those seven starters missed no time due to injuries. The Mariners cannot count on that good fortune two years in a row.

 

The veteran Texas rotation should enhance the competitiveness of the AL West.

[moonslav59]

The 2021 Red Sox looked horrible going into the postseason. They were incredibly lucky to be there.

 

We looked great at the deadline. We had a bad August and were 12-19 from July 29th to the end of August, but despite a couple losing streaks in September, we did 14-11 and ended the season at 11-5 and 4-1.

 

I know teams do better than expected in the playoffs. I'm not saying miracles never happen, but they are so few and far between, I'd prefer improving our longer term outlook over hoping for a miracle in 2022.

 

The 2021 Red Sox did not change my philosophy.

[moonslav59]

It's risky to count on Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck to break out this year to be anything more than a No. 5 starter.

 

FWIW Roster Resource currently has Nick Pivetta as the No. 3 Red Sox starter ahead of James Paxton and Garrett Whitlock.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox

 

Nothing wrong with optimism but expectations should be tempered.

 

I never said Bello, Whitlock and Houck will break out. I said there is a chance that if Sale and or Paxton do not do well, some or most of them may take up the slack.

 

I see Pivetta as our 5th starter. I see the other 5 filling the 1-4 slots. I may end up wrong, but so might you.

 

Or not.

[moonslav59]

Don't worry, any 2023 optimists are more than balanced out by pessimists here.

 

We have 6 starters, out of which we need Pivetta to just be himself as a fine 5th starter. Out of the other 5, we might need 3 to do well, unless Mata, Walter, Crawford and Winckowski can do well in place of 1 or 2 who struggle or get hurt.

 

I like our rotation depth better than last year and even 2021. I like the pen way more.

 

I know I'm usually an optimist, this time of year, but again, we don't need everything to go right to end up with a significantly better pitching staff than 2022.

 

I'm not predicting a championship, here. I'm saying we will be better. Our schedule will be easier. I think we have a decent chance at making the playoffs. I don't think we reach glory.

[notin]

Don't worry, any 2023 optimists are more than balanced out by pessimists here.

 

The funny thing is the optimists and the pessimists aren’t disagreeing wildly about this team. The optimists just think they’ll be better than last year’s 78 win team. The pessimists think they’ll win fewer games. But I bet most people would agree in a 75-85 win range…

[harmony]

We looked great at the deadline. We had a bad August and were 12-19 from July 29th to the end of August, but despite a couple losing streaks in September, we did 14-11 and ended the season at 11-5 and 4-1.

 

I know teams do better than expected in the playoffs. I'm not saying miracles never happen, but they are so few and far between, I'd prefer improving our longer term outlook over hoping for a miracle in 2022.

 

The 2021 Red Sox did not change my philosophy.

Last year the Red Sox opened the season with a rotation of Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill. The Sox have lost Eovaldi, Wacha and Hill but have added Corey Kluber.

 

This year the Red Sox are relying on the improved health of Chris Sale and James Paxton while awaiting the continued development of Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello.

 

The Red Sox are fortunate that the bullpen should be improved.

[moonslav59]

The funny thing is the optimists and the pessimists aren’t disagreeing wildly about this team. The optimists just think they’ll be better than last year’s 78 win team. The pessimists think they’ll win fewer games. But I bet most people would agree in a 75-85 win range…

 

The schedule change alone should keep us at least even with last year's win total.

 

We will play 24 less games against the AL East and 26 more games vs NL teams.

 

I know a lot can go wrong, but looking at the odds of certain things happening, I have to believe we rate to be better at:

 

1B

3B

LF

RF

Closer

RP2

RP3

RP4

RP5, 6, 7, 8, 9...

SP6, 7, 8 and 9...

 

About the same at...

DH

C

CF

SP1, 2, 3, 4, 5

 

(Much) Worse at...

2B

SS

 

Granted, we will likely end up worse at more than 2 positions, but even if you move half of my "about even" slots to worse, I'm looking at:

 

16 Better

4 Same

6 Worse

 

 

[moonslav59]

Last year the Red Sox opened the season with a rotation of Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill. The Sox have lost Eovaldi, Wacha and Hill but have added Corey Kluber.

 

This year the Red Sox are relying on the improved health of Chris Sale and James Paxton while awaiting the continued development of Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello.

 

The Red Sox are fortunate that the bullpen should be improved.

 

You sure didn't like the 2022 Sox rotation, last January or March.

 

You are also counting Nate, Wacha and Hill as 3 SP'ers lost, when they only started enough games for 2.

 

While Nate's 3.87 ERA looked very good, he was not the 2018 or 2021 Nate. Granted, replacing Wacha's 3.32 ERA will be very difficult, but he only started 23 games. Hill led the 3 with 26 GSd and had a 4.27 ERA.

 

26 Hill 4.27

23 Wacha 3.32

20 Eovaldi 3.87

 

But, don't forget we are also replacing these 34 starts, which is half of the 69 listed above:

 

14 Wink 5.89

12 Craw 5.47

5 Seabold 11.29

3 Davis 5.47

 

Add them all together, and it's not as daunting as you make it out to be.

 

2022>2023

33 Pivetta 33

26 Hill> 26 Kluber

23 Wacha> 23 more starts from Whitlock (23+9)

20 Nate> 20 more from Bello (20+11)

40 Wink/Craw/Seab/Davis/Sale/Houck> 40 Sale, Paxton, Mata, Walter, Murphy or the same two who started 26 of those 40, last year: Wink & Crawford.)

 

I'm not seeing the disaster you are seeing. Certainly, we can get worse. I'm not so sure the odds are we will be worse. Yes, a lot comes down to Sale & Paxton, and I hate hoping on either of them, but Whitlock, Bello and Houck look very promising and Mata, Walter and Murphy along with Wink and Crawford look better than the starter depth we had last winter.

 

Feel free to disagree, or not.

[harmony]

Big questions as of now:

 

1. Can 29-year-old Matasaka Yoshida replace the batting production of 30-year-old Xander Bogaerts?

 

2. Can 38-year-old Justin Turner replace the production of 35-year-old J.D. Martinez?

 

3. Can Adam Duvall replace the production of Trevor Story until Story's return?

 

4. Can Triston Casas step up as an everyday MLB first baseman?

 

5. Is Kiki Hernandez an everyday shortstop?

 

6. Is Christian Arroyo an everyday second baseman?

 

7. Can the combo of Reese McGuire and Connor Wong replace the production of long-time Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez?

 

8. Can the addition of Corey Kluber, as well as the uncertain returns of Chris Sale and James Paxton, offset the departures of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill as the Sox await the development of Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck?

 

9. Will the big-ticket additions of Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin sufficiently bolster a beleaguered Boston bullpen amid the volatility of relievers?

 

The answers should determine whether the Red Sox will finish in the range of 78 to 85 wins.

[moonslav59]

I can see how someone can look at 2022 and 2023 and not see improvement:

 

Team Record:

 

Lost: 43-32

16-7 Wacha

14-12 Hill

11-9 Nate

1-2 Davis

1-4 Seabold

 

Probably less of 11-15

7-7 Wink

4-8 Crawford

 

Probably more of 24-35

5-4 Whitlock

2-2 Houck

0-0 Paxton

15-18 Pivetta

2-9 Bello

0-2 Sale

 

Addition:

Kluber 16-15

 

How much a better pen will help is hard to measure.

 

[moonslav59]

Big questions as of now:

 

1. Can 29-year-old Matasaka Yoshida replace the batting production of 30-year-old Xander Bogaerts? He just needs to come close, and improving on 152 RBIs from 2021-2022 should be easy to do.

 

2. Can 38-year-old Justin Turner replace the production of 35-year-old J.D. Martinez? Improving on 62 RBI should be easy. Turner was on fire to end 2022.

 

3. Can Adam Duvall replace the production of Trevor Story until Story's return? Story missed much or '22, so this might not be hard.

 

4. Can Triston Casas step up as an everyday MLB first baseman? The bar is set at Dalbec and Cordero's O and D. This is a lock upgrade.

 

5. Is Kiki Hernandez an everyday shortstop? A big question. He should be better on D and worse on O.

 

6. Is Christian Arroyo an everyday second baseman? No. We will add a middle IF'er. Book it.

 

7. Can the combo of Reese McGuire and Connor Wong replace the production of long-time Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez? Yes, and don't forget Plawecki and his sub .590 OPS: 2022 innings at catcher: 643 Vaz and 421 Plawecki. That's a 3:2 ratio and not that hard to break even with.

 

8. Can the addition of Corey Kluber, as well as the uncertain returns of Chris Sale and James Paxton, offset the departures of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill as the Sox await the development of Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck? The million dollar question. IMO, we have 5 guys needed to replace 69 good starts and 34 bad starts. We also have Mata, Walter, Murphy and more experienced Crawford and Wink.

 

9. Will the big-ticket additions of Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin sufficiently bolster a beleaguered Boston bullpen amid the volatility of relievers? It's better on paper, just like you want to claim the starters are worse on paper.

 

The answers should determine whether the Red Sox will finish in the range of 78 to 85 wins.

 

There are more possibilities than this list offers, and again, we don't need everything to go right- just enough to go right, and it's not as many as you might think.

[a700hitter]

The 2021 Red Sox looked horrible going into the postseason. They were incredibly lucky to be there.

And it had the effect of making Bloom think that his plan was on track.

[Bellhorn04]

We looked great at the deadline. We had a bad August and were 12-19 from July 29th to the end of August, but despite a couple losing streaks in September, we did 14-11 and ended the season at 11-5 and 4-1.

 

Yes, the reason I say the Red Sox looked lousy at the end of 2021 comes down to their last 9 games:

 

0-3 vs Yankees at home horrific

1-2 vs 52-110 Orioles horrific

3-0 vs 65-97 Nats clutch/fortunate - every game was tough

[Bellhorn04]

Big questions as of now:

 

1. Can 29-year-old Matasaka Yoshida replace the batting production of 30-year-old Xander Bogaerts? He just needs to come close, and improving on 152 RBIs from 2021-2022 should be easy to do.

 

LOL RBI what? Nothing about OPS or OPS+ or wRC or any of the usual measuring sticks for offensive production?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

LOL RBI what? Nothing about OPS or OPS+ or wRC or any of the usual measuring sticks for offensive production?

 

Yoshi just needs 40 grand slams to reach 160 ribbies. Duran and McGuire just a catchin' fire should be on base in front of him all season. You know where that's at.

[notin]

LOL RBI what? Nothing about OPS or OPS+ or wRC or any of the usual measuring sticks for offensive production?

 

I’d be fine with OPS+.

 

While Yoshida is Bogaerts’ replacement in the lineup, it’s only monetarily. He will play a different position, hit in a different spot in the order, and play a different overall role in the offense…

[notin]

Yes, the reason I say the Red Sox looked lousy at the end of 2021 comes down to their last 9 games:

 

0-3 vs Yankees at home horrific

1-2 vs 52-110 Orioles horrific

3-0 vs 65-97 Nats clutch/fortunate - every game was tough

 

 

They still won 92 games and made a good run in the postseason. Why should the last 9 games carry a much weight as the first 153?

[moonslav59]

LOL RBI what? Nothing about OPS or OPS+ or wRC or any of the usual measuring sticks for offensive production?

 

That's already been discussed over and over. It's hard to project what Yoshida will do, but I do think he can beat the run production numbers from Bogey, so I mentioned that one thing... well there are actually 2: power and RBIs..

 

XBHs

156 2018-2019

111 2021-2022

 

RBI

220 2018-2019

152 2021-2022

 

Yes, OPS and OPS+ and wRC+ all show how well a batter is hitting better than XBHs and RBI, but those numbers do matter, and they matter a lot. He did have Devers hitting in front of him, most of the year. He had a lot of RBI opportunities, all year.

 

RISP

180 PAs in 2022

183 in 2018

191 in 2019

 

Men on Base

322 PAs in 2022

271 in 2018

327 in 2019

 

I don't expect the 5 years of Yoshida will be a better than Bogey was over the last 5 years, but it could happen.

 

I don't think he needs to match Bogey's numbers for us to improve, overall. I think he can create more runs than Bogey did, last year. It appears like Bogey had some bad luck, but I don't see anyone adjusting Wacha's numbers for good luck when saying we need to replace his 2022 numbers.

[Hugh2]

They still won 92 games and made a good run in the postseason. Why should the last 9 games carry a much weight as the first 153?

 

Also, after losing a series to the Yankees, they beat them in the WC game so whatever.

[moonslav59]

They still won 92 games and made a good run in the postseason. Why should the last 9 games carry a much weight as the first 153?

 

And the whole point was about a team's feelin of being in it or out of it before the trade deadline.

 

I had absolutely close to zero hopes. The buzz on this site, especially in game threads was that the team sucked or worse. The mood was light years different from 2021.

 

Yes, we had a bunch of returning players that offered some hope for a turn around. Yes, fans with tickets to late season games and NESN subscriptions deserved a decent product to view, which in my opinion, they failed to get, anyways, but that is hindsight. Key players never came back.

[notin]

And the whole point was about a team's feelin of being in it or out of it before the trade deadline.

 

I had absolutely close to zero hopes. The buzz on this site, especially in game threads was that the team sucked or worse. The mood was light years different from 2021.

 

Yes, we had a bunch of returning players that offered some hope for a turn around. Yes, fans with tickets to late season games and NESN subscriptions deserved a decent product to view, which in my opinion, they failed to get, anyways, but that is hindsight. Key players never came back.

 

 

The 2021 Sox were absolutely in it at the deadline, and they added Schwarber, Robles and Austin Davis. There was no real question about whether or not they should be buyers or sellers. The problem was they kept getting connected to names like Scherzer and Berrios and kept coming up short or were just not in the running for those bigger names. Heck the biggest add turned out to be Schwarber, but even he was in the Injured List at the time and didn’t make his Sox debut for a couple weeks.

 

But just adding Robles and Davis was a bare minimum of enough pitching, apparently. And that was the big difference between the 2021 and 2022 deadlines because in the latter they didn’t add a single arm to the staff, and they wound up needing pitching badly especially since they wound up losing both Eovaldi and Houck…

[Bellhorn04]

They still won 92 games and made a good run in the postseason. Why should the last 9 games carry a much weight as the first 153?

 

That was just further to the "playoffs are a crapshoot" discussion, and how a team can go from looking like crap to being red hot just like that.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think he needs to match Bogey's numbers for us to improve, overall. I think he can create more runs than Bogey did, last year. It appears like Bogey had some bad luck, but I don't see anyone adjusting Wacha's numbers for good luck when saying we need to replace his 2022 numbers.

 

You mean you don't see any OLD SCHOOLERS adjusting for luck.

[moonslav59]

I’d be fine with OPS+.

 

While Yoshida is Bogaerts’ replacement in the lineup, it’s only monetarily. He will play a different position, hit in a different spot in the order, and play a different overall role in the offense…

 

It's going to be hard replacing Bogey's 133 OPS+ from 2018-2022 (5 years.) It was 130 over the previous 3 seasons combined.

 

JD had a 135 OPS+ over that same timeframe, but 116 over the last 3 seasons.

 

We are also replacing...

 

88 OPS+ Vaz 2018-2022 (87 '21-'22)

 

2022

80 Dalbec in 2022

60 JBJ in '22

92 Cordero '22

86 Pham '22

78 Duran '22

61 Plawecki '22

77 Hosmer '22

-6 Sanchez, 17 Downs, 92 Almonte, 70 Chang, -100 Shaw and -100 Arauz

 

This final list had more than 1800 PAs in 2022. Bogey & JD had just over 1,200. Add Vaz and it's about 1520.

 

128 Turner 2018-2022

??? Yoshida

102 Duvall '19-'22

87 McGuire '18-'22

83 Tapia '18-'22

 

More from...

97 Kike (2018-2022)

 

[moonslav59]

The 2021 Sox were absolutely in it at the deadline, and they added Schwarber, Robles and Austin Davis. There was no real question about whether or not they should be buyers or sellers. The problem was they kept getting connected to names like Scherzer and Berrios and kept coming up short or were just not in the running for those bigger names. Heck the biggest add turned out to be Schwarber, but even he was in the Injured List at the time and didn’t make his Sox debut for a couple weeks.

 

But just adding Robles and Davis was a bare minimum of enough pitching, apparently. And that was the big difference between the 2021 and 2022 deadlines because in the latter they didn’t add a single arm to the staff, and they wound up needing pitching badly especially since they wound up losing both Eovaldi and Houck…

 

I don't think they expected to be in the thick of it in '21, and they were still clearly in "hoard top prospect" mode. I think they did pretty well getting what they did for essentially Aldo Ramirez. Schwarber, Iggy, Shaw, Robles and Davis all helped.

 

The funny thing about 2022 was that McGuire, Pham and Hosmer did better than what we had beforehand.

[moonslav59]

You mean you don't see any OLD SCHOOLERS adjusting for luck.

 

Old schoolers look at RBI, but they don't seem to about how easy it should be for Yoshida and Turner to out RBI Bogey and JD. All we heard about, last year was Renfroe's lost 98 RBIs.

 

They look at how we can possibly replace Wacha's 3.32 ERA and Nate's 3.87. They don't loos closely at the fact that both started 43 games, combined and really weren't as good as their ERAs showed they were.

[Old Red]

And the whole point was about a team's feelin of being in it or out of it before the trade deadline.

 

I had absolutely close to zero hopes. The buzz on this site, especially in game threads was that the team sucked or worse. The mood was light years different from 2021.

 

Yes, we had a bunch of returning players that offered some hope for a turn around. Yes, fans with tickets to late season games and NESN subscriptions deserved a decent product to view, which in my opinion, they failed to get, anyways, but that is hindsight. Key players never came back.

 

Yes we know you had close to zero hopes, and bailed at the first sign of predictable trouble after giving your daily wildcard standings updates. There is not enough cheese available to go with the continuous whine you are still doing about last year that is not going to change a thing.