A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[harmony]

Last week behind a paywall, columnist Jim Bowden at The Athletic examined the Red Sox offseason needs:

The Red Sox (72-77) enter Friday’s game against the Yankees in last place in the American League East, 19 games behind their division-leading rivals. They are on track to finish in the cellar for the second time in three years, and based on their big-league roster and farm system, they’ll be heavy favorites to land in last again next year unless they make major changes this offseason.

https://theathletic.com/3616152/2022/09/23/red-sox-offseason-trades-signings/

[mvp 78]

I know, but they're in and we're out this year. The Jays sure talk a lot of smack for a team that hasn't won a playoff game since Joey Bats got decked by Odor in '16.

 

Joe Carter was 30 years ago. Jays don't have much to hang their hats on, but that's fine.

[Bellhorn04]

These are the types of deals we may be looking at.

 

I'm not sure past durability is a sign of future health, though.

 

The only sign of future health for pitchers is retirement.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The only sign of future health for pitchers is retirement.

 

... not even that; don't forget poor Catfish and The Bird.

 

Spaceman's still kicking -- and throwing and hitting -- because he never retired.

 

He was also smart enough to drop dead in a ballpark celebrating EMT Night, and not Sausage Makers Night...

[moonslav59]

To me, the minimum additions we can get by with, this winter, is 6. I'd like to see 7 or 8, but if we get less to improve the quality (over quantity), I'd be fine.

 

SS

 

Ace

 

Solid RP

 

Solid SP

 

Solid RP

 

RF

______________________

 

?7? RF/DH or 1B/DH or someone like Mancini, who can play 1B, corner OF & DH.

 

?8? Sp/RP depending on our plans for Whitlock & Houck (and their health outlook)

 

To get quality players and re-set the tax, we will likely have to trade for one or two of these slots.

Edited September 28, 2022 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

To me, the minimum additions we can get by with, this winter, is 6. I'd like to see 7 or 8, but if we get less to improve the quality (over quantity), I'd be fine.

 

SS

 

Ace

 

Solid RP

 

Solid SP

 

Solid RP

 

RF

______________________

 

?7? RF/DH or 1B/DH or someone like Mancini, who can play 1B, corner OF & DH.

 

?8? Sp/RP depending on our plans for Whitlock & Houck (and their health outlook)

 

To get quality players and re-set the tax, we will likely have to trade for one or two of these slots.

 

I still believe a lot will hinge on what the Sox do about signing Bogey. If we can't resign him, they we have the option of Story at short then Kike could be either CF or 2nd base. The latter approach would require both a CF be signed and the use of Pham (if resigned) and Verdugo for the other spots. We could use Arroyo and Pham as quality utility players and pickup a RF instead while playing Verdugo in left. Moon has been talking about our #3 prospect, who might be the next big thing. He has CF potential and may make Duran expendable. Of course we need pitching and it remains to be seen if either Sale or Paxton will be factors in 2023.

[moonslav59]

I still believe a lot will hinge on what the Sox do about signing Bogey. If we can't resign him, they we have the option of Story at short then Kike could be either CF or 2nd base. The latter approach would require both a CF be signed and the use of Pham (if resigned) and Verdugo for the other spots. We could use Arroyo and Pham as quality utility players and pickup a RF instead while playing Verdugo in left. Moon has been talking about our #3 prospect, who might be the next big thing. He has CF potential and may make Duran expendable. Of course we need pitching and it remains to be seen if either Sale or Paxton will be factors in 2023.

 

I don't think we move Story to SS, where is arm may be tested or strained. I think they realize Kike is very good on D at 2B, but he is excellent in CF. For those reasons, I think we add a SS, if Bogey walks. We may look to a shorter term solution in hopes of Mayer and or Rafaela rising up quickly, but I don't think management thinks like that. They can deal with logjams when and if they occur much more easily than trying to fill gaps.

[moonslav59]

Would anyone make this BTV approved deal with the Pirates?

 

Houck, Schreiber, Rafaela, Yorke and Wikelman

 

for

 

David Bednar (closer) 27 years old & 4 years of team control

141 ERA+ (3.03 ERA)/ 1.11 WHIP career (11.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9)

Last 2 years: 2.45 ERA (a74 ERA+) and 1.03 WHIP w 11.8K/9 to 2.8 BB/9

 

Bryan Reynolds (OF) 27 years old & 3 years of team control

.282/.346/.482/.844 career

per 650 PAs: .282 24 79 (62 XBHs)

Last 2 years: .284 27 75 (57 XBH) .863 OPS

[Bellhorn04]

I refuse to indulge in hypothetical trades, simply because we all know Bloom will do something altogether different.

[Old Red]

I refuse to indulge in hypothetical trades, simply because we all know Bloom will do something altogether different.

 

Like JBJ? Nobody saw that coming.

[Bellhorn04]

Like JBJ? Nobody saw that coming.

 

No one knows what evil lurks in the heart of Bloom.

[Nick]

Sure thing for 2023, Position players.

 

1. By now I'm guessing Bloom is happy with the catching tandem of McGuire/Wong. We got younger and cheaper. Typical Bloom.

2. By just staying healthier, Story will be better in 2023.

3. Devers, has chance to improve as he will be playing for mega contract.

4. Casas, sure looks like an upgrade from 2022. No doubt he and Hosmer are better defensive 1B.

5. Verdugo, management hopes he continues improve

6. Kike, not sure we get "much better" with him returning.

7. SS

8. DH

9. RH....sure could use a big bat in this spot.

[Old Red]

No one knows what evil lurks in the heart of Bloom.

 

That’s true, but we’ll find out in the next 3-4 months.

[moonslav59]

Sure thing for 2023, Position players.

 

1. By now I'm guessing Bloom is happy with the catching tandem of McGuire/Wong. We got younger and cheaper. Typical Bloom.

2. By just staying healthier, Story will be better in 2023.

3. Devers, has chance to improve as he will be playing for mega contract.

4. Casas, sure looks like an upgrade from 2022. No doubt he and Hosmer are better defensive 1B.

5. Verdugo, management hopes he continues improve

6. Kike, not sure we get "much better" with him returning.

7. SS

8. DH

9. RH....sure could use a big bat in this spot.

 

With Kike, we get much better if he plays more than 2022- that was my point. Our CF OPS was .680, and yes, some of that was Kike's fault, but I expect much better than .680, and the D will be better, if he plays 145+ games in CF..

 

Verdugo was better in his first 2 years in MLB and his first year with BOS. He is not improving but needs to.

[moonslav59]

I refuse to indulge in hypothetical trades, simply because we all know Bloom will do something altogether different.

 

I'm not expecting Bloom to trade 5 prospects, but I do think he might do more than his biggest prospect trades to date: A Ramirez for Schwarber and Groome for Hosmer and 2 prospects.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No one knows what evil lurks in the heart of Bloom.

 

One can't just have a black heart in the modern game any more, where there's a new calculus in the four quadrants, with a lot of gray chambers that overlap. That said, any evil can't just be based on spite or revenge, but would have to work for the entire organization going forward. While we're not limited in our budget, it might be in our best interests to keep our vessels open with a lot of stents, rather than go all in with a transplant. Subsequent heartburn can be treated longterm with prescription meds, but we prefer over-the-counter antacids for quick relief.

[moonslav59]

One can't just have a black heart in the modern game any more, where there's a new calculus in the four quadrants, with a lot of gray chambers that overlap. That said, any evil can't just be based on spite or revenge, but would have to work for the entire organization going forward. While we're not limited in our budget, it might be in our best interests to keep our vessels open with a lot of stents, rather than go all in with a transplant. Subsequent heartburn can be treated longterm with prescription meds, but we prefer over-the-counter antacids for quick relief.

 

Now THAT is insightful.

 

[moonslav59]

Here is a little choice: say we figure the budget allows only $40M for SS and RF, and these are your only choices.

 

What do you choose?

 

SS

$30M: Correa or Turner

$25M Bogey

$20M Swanson

$15M T Anderson

$5M Iggy or Simmons

RF

$35M Judge

$20M Nimmo

$15M Haniger

$10M Mancini

$10M Naquin

 

Edited September 28, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Here is a little choice: say we figure the budget allows only $40M for SS and RF, and these are your only choices.

 

What do you choose?

 

SS

$30M: Correa or Seager

$25M Bogey

$20M Swanson

$15M T Anderson

$5M Iggy or Simmons

RF

$35M Judge

$20M Nimmo

$15M Haniger

$10M Mancini

$10M Naquin

 

 

I think Swanson/Nimmo or Bogey/Haniger might be the best 2 choices.

 

If, somehow, we can get Bogey and Nimmo and still boost the pitching staff, I'd be happy.

 

(Warning: I wanted Baez and Suzuki, last winter.)

[harmony]

Here is a little choice: say we figure the budget allows only $40M for SS and RF, and these are your only choices.

 

What do you choose?

 

SS

$30M: Correa or Seager

$25M Bogey

$20M Swanson

$15M T Anderson

$5M Iggy or Simmons

RF

$35M Judge

$20M Nimmo

$15M Haniger

$10M Mancini

$10M Naquin

 

Mitch Haniger is unlikely to land a $15 million AAV.

[Bellhorn04]

Here is a little choice: say we figure the budget allows only $40M for SS and RF, and these are your only choices.

 

What do you choose?

 

SS

$30M: Correa or Seager

$25M Bogey

$20M Swanson

$15M T Anderson

$5M Iggy or Simmons

RF

$35M Judge

$20M Nimmo

$15M Haniger

$10M Mancini

$10M Naquin

 

 

How is Seager in the picture?

[oldtimer]

Here is a little choice: say we figure the budget allows only $40M for SS and RF, and these are your only choices.

 

What do you choose?

 

SS

$30M: Correa or Seager

$25M Bogey

$20M Swanson

$15M T Anderson

$5M Iggy or Simmons

RF

$35M Judge

$20M Nimmo

$15M Haniger

$10M Mancini

$10M Naquin

 

 

I would like to consider the length of contracts as a part of any deal. Also, we need to remember that Devers will need to be signed to a large and fairly long term contract shortly as well. I would go with Bogey for 5 years at $25. I also would consider Story for SS should the Bogey deal prove impossible. I would move Kike into 2nd for next year and look to add a right fielder who could handle center or right. Nimmo fits that description well and we can use Pham for another year in left and Verdugo in right. Alternatively, we have a low cost candidate for CF knocking on the door in Ceddanne but then could still use Nimmo in right and Verdugo in Left with Pham a Util OF/DH player. Is there enough money to cover Devers, Bogey, Story and Nimmo? we still have Sales contract and will need another front line starter and some quality FP's?

[moonslav59]

How is Seager in the picture?

 

I meant Turner.

[moonslav59]

Mitch Haniger is unlikely to land a $15 million AAV.

 

I thought closer to $10M, but I needed a $10M option- LOL.

[notin]

I thought closer to $10M, but I needed a $10M option- LOL.

 

You still need one. Tyler Naquin isn’t getting anywhere close to $10mill…

[Larry Cook]

Here is a little choice: say we figure the budget allows only $40M for SS and RF, and these are your only choices.

 

What do you choose?

 

SS

$30M: Correa or Turner

$25M Bogey

$20M Swanson

$15M T Anderson

$5M Iggy or Simmons

RF

$35M Judge

$20M Nimmo

$15M Haniger

$10M Mancini

$10M Naquin

 

 

Turner!!!!!! Number 1 target this offseason. Bar none.

We desperately need turner.

 

Ps: there has to be other options for right field than these guys. Hang’em Chaim may need to be creative and examine the trade route!

[Hugh2]

Here is a little choice: say we figure the budget allows only $40M for SS and RF, and these are your only choices.

 

What do you choose?

 

SS

$30M: Correa or Turner

$25M Bogey

$20M Swanson

$15M T Anderson

$5M Iggy or Simmons

RF

$35M Judge

$20M Nimmo

$15M Haniger

$10M Mancini

$10M Naquin

 

 

I call up Florida and offer a non top 5 prospect for Edward Cabrera, because we’re taking back Garcias contract. Sign Mancini and have 7 million left over for the bullpen.

[Hugh2]

Folks, Story is not moving back to SS, I will eat my socks if this happens. It’s been discussed, analyzed, and agreed upon that 2nd is his home.

 

Also, the SS market is a lot deeper than the outfield market this off-season. And Kike is GG in CF. But moving him back to 2nd means you need TWO outfielders in a weak market including a CFer

[moonslav59]

I call up Florida and offer a non top 5 prospect for Edward Cabrera, because we’re taking back Garcias contract. Sign Mancini and have 7 million left over for the bullpen.

 

That wasn't a choice, and if that is all we're doing, we might as well do nothing and just go for a top draft pick.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Folks, Story is not moving back to SS, I will eat my socks if this happens. It’s been discussed, analyzed, and agreed upon that 2nd is his home.

 

Also, the SS market is a lot deeper than the outfield market this off-season. And Kike is GG in CF. But moving him back to 2nd means you need TWO outfielders in a weak market including a CFer

 

I see this going one of two ways: the Sox commit to Bogaerts or just sign a much cheaper glove-first shortstop as a placeholder for the next two years until the Mayer Era begins. Big money won't be used for a marquis replacement like the Braves with Freeman-Olson. Spending large on Turner or Swanson instead of Bogey won't make the Red Sox any better.

 

Boston needs too much pitching to get back into contention, and both starters and relievers have to be the focus of the majority of investments this winter. The Sox also need to add a legitimate outfielder who can hit more than 10 home runs.

 

The front office will also decide the fate of Devers, and if they won't meet his price then Bloom will probably trade him before next season -- for a lot more than the LA package for Betts (with no Price attached).

 

If the Sox say goodbye to both X and Raffy, the only free agent infielder they might sign is Carlos Correa. When Correa played for Cora on the Puerto Rico team, he moved to third so Lindor could play shortstop; that kind of versatility and personality will grow in value when Mayer does arrive. Plus, Correa has a career-high .980 OPS at Fenway in AL road parks (100 PA min.).