A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

Sounds like a good plan to me, and like I keep saying the Bogey, and Raffy situations have to be taken care of one way, or the other, before anything else, could, or should be done. The fact that it hasn’t is not a good sign to me.

 

In-season negotiations are sometimes not wanted by the player. Maybe, something will be done (or decided) early in the off season.

[Old Red]

In-season negotiations are sometimes not wanted by the player. Maybe, something will be done (or decided) early in the off season.

 

Agree on the in-season negotiations, but to me this should have been decided last off season, and coming out with those contract offers they came out with was a step in the opposite direction.

[moonslav59]

Agree on the in-season negotiations, but to me this should have been decided last off season, and coming out with those contract offers they came out with was a step in the opposite direction.

 

I'm with you on this one, especially with Bogey.

 

Maybe that offer they made to Bogey is close to as high as they will go, so nothing more could really have been done, except to get him to agree to a trade.

 

Offering him a QO will only hurt his FA value.

[mvp 78]

Here is my current DFA/non-tender/trade for far-away prospects list:

 

(Pham and Paxton have options)

 

Chang

Almonte

DHern

Bazardo

Ort

Cordero

Brasier

 

Not likely, but would not cry seeing them traded:

Downs

Danish

Duran

Hosmer (not until we get a better read on Casas)

Seabold

Winckowski

Taylor (if and only if deemed permanently damaged goods)

 

 

Getting rid of Winckowski already? WTF? At least put him in the pen and see if his stuff plays up. He's only 24.

[notin]

Is that enough?

 

We break even, if lucky, on Bogey, Devers and Wacha.

 

We lose Nate, Hill, Strahm and add maybe Nimmo (your OF) and some pen help.

 

I think we need to add another solid SP'er, too, minimum.

 

I’m hoping the Sox can get one of the Miami pitchers or pry away the salary of Blake Snell from an over-committed Sa Diego team. Or both…

[mvp 78]

if you had to pick one trade out of these listed, which would it be? (btv values listed)

 

for lopez (mia) 35.3

a. Casas 39.7

b. Rafaela 15.1, yorke 12.3 & wikelman 6.6

 

for luzardo (mia) 22.1

c. Rafaela 15.1 & wikelman 6.6

d. Yorke 12.3, wikelman 6.6, duran 5.9

 

for both lopez 35.3 & agarcia -28.5

e. Wikelman

 

for both luzardo, a garcia and $8m cash

f. Wikelman

 

for both lopez 35.3 & luzardo 22.2

g. Casas 39.9, rafaela 15.1 & winckowski 3.3

 

for lopez 35.3, luzardo 22.1 & agarcia -28.5

h. Rafaela 15.1, yorke 12.1 & winckowski 3.3

i. Yorke 12.1, wikelman 6.6, duran 5.9 & winckowski 3.3

 

 

iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

[mvp 78]

No one should have to watch that atrocity and making anyone do so should be a punishable war crime…

 

I'm doing my part.

[mvp 78]

I’m hoping the Sox can get one of the Miami pitchers or pry away the salary of Blake Snell from an over-committed Sa Diego team. Or both…

 

The 2022 Marlins are the 2021 Oakland A's.

[moonslav59]

Getting rid of Winckowski already? WTF? At least put him in the pen and see if his stuff plays up. He's only 24.

 

He's "not likely" to be traded, and I would not be upset, if they do.

 

That's not really "giving up."

 

We may need to create roster room for all the FAs we will sign (lol)

[moonslav59]

iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

 

A Garcia might be DFA'd before too long, but he would at least fill the RF/DH role for a while. He's just a salary dump to lessen the return, which essentially allows us to keep Casas

 

I think E & F are better than the others, too.

 

I might do any of these, if MIA insisted on just one.

[notin]

iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

 

Too bad Miami passes.

 

I suspect a Luzardo for Rafaela/Gonzalez deal is reasonable but not something that makes their Fish Nipples go all a quiver. Or whatever Marlins do when excited…

[notin]

Agree on the in-season negotiations, but to me this should have been decided last off season, and coming out with those contract offers they came out with was a step in the opposite direction.

 

Did it benefit the Sox to wait?

 

Austin Riley, coming of a 4.7fWAR in 2021 and in the midst of a 5.4 fWAR 2022, signed a 10 year extension for the exact same $21mill AAV that Devers (4,2 fWAR in 2021, 4.7 fWAR in 2022) turned down…

[mvp 78]

Too bad Miami passes.

 

I suspect a Luzardo for Rafaela/Gonzalez deal is reasonable but not something that makes their Fish Nipples go all a quiver. Or whatever Marlins do when excited…

 

It wasn't "which option is most likely."

[moonslav59]

Too bad Miami passes.

 

I suspect a Luzardo for Rafaela/Gonzalez deal is reasonable but not something that makes their Fish Nipples go all a quiver. Or whatever Marlins do when excited…

 

It depends on how MIA evaluates Rafaela & Wikelman and nobody else offers them more.

 

I'm not sure how badly they want to cut A Garcia's salary from their ledger. They may not want Duran or Wink for free. Maybe they want Seabold or someone we think is worth less. You never know.

 

My guess is they'd say no to all these trades.

 

Since Lopez is hitting higher arb costs, I think they'd rather move him.

[jacksonianmarch]

Honestly, I think the sox should deal Devers. And I am trying to look at is through a sox prism. The guy is good, but he wants elite level money. He has also had conditioning issues with his weight as a young player. That will not age well. He tailed off this year because of lower body issues. Also, the sox arent in window. Major extensions are usually with now in mind and the sox now isn't that bright. I deal him off and tie no money to him. I don't do a dead weight Sale contract with him and accept less. I go for nothing but elite level talent for a team thinking they are one player away

[harmony]

In-season negotiations are sometimes not wanted by the player. Maybe, something will be done (or decided) early in the off season.

Of course it depends on the circumstances.

 

In the past month the Seattle Mariners have signed long-term extensions with Julio Rodriguez and Luis Castillo, each with risks and rewards.

[moonslav59]

Honestly, I think the sox should deal Devers. And I am trying to look at is through a sox prism. The guy is good, but he wants elite level money. He has also had conditioning issues with his weight as a young player. That will not age well. He tailed off this year because of lower body issues. Also, the sox arent in window. Major extensions are usually with now in mind and the sox now isn't that bright. I deal him off and tie no money to him. I don't do a dead weight Sale contract with him and accept less. I go for nothing but elite level talent for a team thinking they are one player away

 

You know for a fact, this Yankee killer tailed off due to his lower body?

 

Sometimes, you crack me up.

[jacksonianmarch]

You know for a fact, this Yankee killer tailed off due to his lower body?

 

Sometimes, you crack me up.

 

I usually work evenings. I listen to EEI on my way home. The announcers have been talking for 2 months about how his lower body seems to be injured. Intermittent limping, etc. It coincided with a deep slump

[Larry Cook]

I usually work evenings. I listen to EEI on my way home. The announcers have been talking for 2 months about how his lower body seems to be injured. Intermittent limping, etc. It coincided with a deep slump

 

I thought something was wrong with his ankle. He has been pitiful since around early July.

[moonslav59]

I usually work evenings. I listen to EEI on my way home. The announcers have been talking for 2 months about how his lower body seems to be injured. Intermittent limping, etc. It coincided with a deep slump

 

And that is because of poor lower body conditioning?

 

The kid has missed way less time than Judge, and you were taking like Judge was Lou Gehrig.

 

He'll be fine on an 8 year deal. Much better than Judge on a 7 year deal.

[moonslav59]

I thought something was wrong with his ankle. He has been pitiful since around early July.

 

I guess he's so fat, his ankles gave way.

[moonslav59]

I'm probably in the minority thinking we'll be better, overall, at catcher with McGuire & Wong over Vaz/Plawecki.

 

We should be better at 1B w Casas.

 

DH is not as bad as it sounds: JD vs Dalbec/Hosmer (Arroyo/Pham/Refsnyder/EValdez), but that's because we remember the great JD.

 

Pham is better than Duran & JBJ, and more from ref can't be as bad as they were. Sure, it's not a winning combo, but it's an improvement, and I have to think we add a RF'er, so we are now looking at Pham/Ref as subs not starters, and both are better than Duran/Cordero/Arroyo of 2022 in the 4th OF'er slot.

 

It comes down to replacing Bogey and adding a RF'er.

 

All this means nothing, if we don't significantly add to the pitching staff. Sure, more from Bello, Schreiber, Houck and Whitlock and maybe a boost from German, Kelly or a resurgent Barnes or Taylor can take up some of the slack, but replacing the innings from Wacha, Nate and Hill will not be easy.

 

Bringing Wacha back may go a long way to balancing 2022 and 2023 out, but we still need a big plus beyond maybe staying even with Wacha returning.

 

I still think we trade for a solid SP'er, bring Wacha back and leave the rest of the rotation to what we have in the system. Bello takes Hill's slot and Sale/Paxton might just be counted on as gravy. (Somehow, I get the feeling we add just one SP'er and count on one or both of Sale & Paxton combined to give us 33 starts.

 

Add two solid pen pieces (not expensive ones but better than Diekman.)

 

Make our SS/RF positions combined better than Bogey/JBJ were- somehow, somewhere.

[mvp 78]

Honestly, I think the sox should deal Devers. And I am trying to look at is through a sox prism. The guy is good, but he wants elite level money. He has also had conditioning issues with his weight as a young player. That will not age well. He tailed off this year because of lower body issues. Also, the sox arent in window. Major extensions are usually with now in mind and the sox now isn't that bright. I deal him off and tie no money to him. I don't do a dead weight Sale contract with him and accept less. I go for nothing but elite level talent for a team thinking they are one player away

 

The Sox were just in the ALCS last season and are a team that can bump up payroll whenever they want. They have a history of going from worst to first and winning it all from out of nowhere. The idea of "window" for an organization like the Sox is silly.

[mvp 78]

I usually work evenings. I listen to EEI on my way home. The announcers have been talking for 2 months about how his lower body seems to be injured. Intermittent limping, etc. It coincided with a deep slump

 

They should have just put him on the IL.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Arizona's Merrill Kelly leads the NL in games started with 31. That stat alone should make him a Red Sox target. Kelly is 33 and under contract for three more years at a modest $8M AAV. His third comp on bb-ref is Pablo Lopez. What kind of trade would it take to bring Kelly to Boston? BBTV gives him an affordable 12.9 value.

 

Feel free to expand the deal and add the following to the package: 4.8 WAR rightfielder Daulton Varsho (26 HRs, 13 SBs, 1.9 dWAR), Madison Bumgarner (owed $40M), and Ketel Marte, 28, who hit 32 homers when he was 25 (with a livelier ball?)? Is this a good buy-low winter for Marte? Is any winter time to add a guy signed through 2028 and owed around $86M?

 

BTV lists Kelly at 12.9, but Varsho is 78. Bumgarner is -32.2, Marte is -34.7...

[moonslav59]

Arizona's Merrill Kelly leads the NL in games started with 31. That stat alone should make him a Red Sox target. Kelly is 33 and under contract for three more years at a modest $8M AAV. His third comp on bb-ref is Pablo Lopez. What kind of trade would it take to bring Kelly to Boston? BBTV gives him an affordable 12.9 value.

 

Feel free to expand the deal and add the following to the package: 4.8 WAR rightfielder Daulton Varsho (26 HRs, 13 SBs, 1.9 dWAR), Madison Bumgarner (owed $40M), and Ketel Marte, 28, who hit 32 homers when he was 25 (with a livelier ball?)? Is this a good buy-low winter for Marte? Is any winter time to add a guy signed through 2028 and owed around $86M?

 

BTV lists Kelly at 12.9, but Varsho is 78. Bumgarner is -32.2, Marte is -34.7...

 

These are the types of deals we may be looking at.

 

I'm not sure past durability is a sign of future health, though.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

These are the types of deals we may be looking at.

 

I'm not sure past durability is a sign of future health, though.

 

No pitcher at any age is guaranteed not to get injured. Looking at their recent histories and current training programs is all we got...

 

I consider Toronto as the model of a club that never stops upgrading its pitching. Berrios flops in his prime late-20s (so far), but in recent years the Jays keep adding starters in their 30s with value: Ryu, Ray, Matz, Gausman, Stripling, etc.

 

A few Sox fans might argue that Bloom keeps counting on over-30 starters, too... but that he's just unlucky because they always get hurt. Other fans may counter that's also a good example of the adage You make your own luck...

[mvp 78]

No pitcher at any age is guaranteed not to get injured. Looking at their recent histories and current training programs is all we got...

 

I consider Toronto as the model of a club that never stops upgrading its pitching. Berrios flops in his prime late-20s (so far), but in recent years the Jays keep adding starters in their 30s with value: Ryu, Ray, Matz, Gausman, Stripling, etc.

 

A few Sox fans might argue that Bloom keeps counting on over-30 starters, too... but that he's just unlucky because they always get hurt. Other fans may counter that's also a good example of the adage You make your own luck...

 

Jays keep adding to their staff, but they keep losing those guys as well. Toronto often wins the offseason or the trading deadline and doesn't have anything to show for it yet.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Jays keep adding to their staff, but they keep losing those guys as well. Toronto often wins the offseason or the trading deadline and doesn't have anything to show for it yet.

 

I know, but they're in and we're out this year. The Jays sure talk a lot of smack for a team that hasn't won a playoff game since Joey Bats got decked by Odor in '16.

[moonslav59]

No pitcher at any age is guaranteed not to get injured. Looking at their recent histories and current training programs is all we got...

 

I consider Toronto as the model of a club that never stops upgrading its pitching. Berrios flops in his prime late-20s (so far), but in recent years the Jays keep adding starters in their 30s with value: Ryu, Ray, Matz, Gausman, Stripling, etc.

 

A few Sox fans might argue that Bloom keeps counting on over-30 starters, too... but that he's just unlucky because they always get hurt. Other fans may counter that's also a good example of the adage You make your own luck...

 

I'm always for adding pitchers, and I'm not taking 5th starter types, either.

 

I realize taking pitchers with healthy backgrounds makes more sense than those without. I agree on this.

 

I don't know much about Kelly, but he could be a nice addition.