A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

Ah, I knew an old pro who always used to say, "The team that drinks together wins together." Think of Kevin Millar handing out shots of bourbon in the clubhouse before the '03 ALCS games.

 

Although Jack Daniels can make friends out of foes, and foes out of friends.

 

Or think of Lackey and Lester and some chicken!

[notin]

Any interest in 28-year-old Seattle righthander Chris Flexen, who in two seasons with the Mariners has posted an ERA of 3.62 in 63 appearances, including 52 starts?

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/flexech01.shtml

 

In December 2020 the Mariners signed the former New York Met who had spent the previous season in the Korean Baseball Organization. According to Spotrac, Flexen comes with four years of team control but will earn $8 million in 2023 under a vested option.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/seattle-mariners/chris-flexen-21243/

 

Flexen and Matt Brash entered the 2022 season in the Seattle starting rotation but were replaced by deadline acquisition Luis Castillo and emerging rookie George Kirby. The Mariners control Flexen, Brash and their current five starters through at least the 2025 season (all but Marco Gonzales through 2026). A Seattle farm system depleted by graduations still has promising starters Emerson Hancock, Bryce Miller and Taylor Dollard, who concluded the 2022 season at Double A, often the last stop for Mariner pitching prospects before the MLB callup.

 

Just a thought.

 

 

I imagine Flexen is on the radar, especially if Seattle maintains his surplus value of $1mill in a trade for him. Jeter Downs?

[harmony]

I imagine Flexen is on the radar, especially if Seattle maintains his surplus value of $1mill in a trade for him. Jeter Downs?

Baseball Trade Values accepts a trade of four years of Chris Flexen (+$1 million) for two years of Yankee second baseman Gleyber Torres (-$1 million):

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-103610/

 

This offseason the Yankees may enter the free agent market for shortstops despite their top infield prospects. New York Post columnist Joel Sherman suggests Torres may be expendable:

 

https://nypost.com/2022/09/30/inside-the-demise-of-a-young-yankees-core-around-aaron-judge/

Edited October 1, 2022 by harmony

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

Amidst a difficult Red Sox season, Matt Strahm has been a bright spot, posting a 3.92 ERA over 43 2/3 innings and filling a number of different roles in Boston’s bullpen. After being non-tendered by the Padres last winter, Strahm signed a one-year, $3MM free agent deal with the Sox in March and he told MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo that he “would love” a return to Boston in 2023. Strahm also said he is open to returning to a relief role, but also wants to market himself as a starting pitcher. Strahm made 16 starts for the Padres in 2019 but none since, as knee injuries limited the southpaw in any role in 2020-21. However, Strahm said he is ready to resume a starter’s workload, as a consistent running program has made his knees “feel better than when I was drafted.” Since the Red Sox have multiple starters slated for free agency this winter, re-signing Strahm and at least giving him a trial run as a starter would make some sense, as the Sox would then have the fallback of moving the left-hander back into the bullpen. Cotillo reported that the Brewers, Royals, and Tigers were among the teams vying for Strahm last offseason, so any of that trio could conceivably still have interest in his next trip to the open market.

[jacksonianmarch]

Baseball Trade Values accepts a trade of four years of Chris Flexen (+$1 million) for two years of Yankee second baseman Gleyber Torres (-$1 million):

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-103610/

 

This offseason the Yankees may enter the free agent market for shortstops despite their top infield prospects. New York Post columnist Joel Sherman suggests Torres may be expendable:

 

https://nypost.com/2022/09/30/inside-the-demise-of-a-young-yankees-core-around-aaron-judge/

 

It’s all gonna depend on Judge. If he walks, then all chips are on the table. If he stays, I think you see an offensive retooling but no other major all star additions. Cabrera, Dominguez, Wells, Peraza, and Volpe will either begin 23 with the big club or make their debuts. No point in blocking them if the offense has the now firepower.

 

For as great a year as the Yanks had, they had some dumb injury luck again that could be mitigated by having competitive depth. DJ’s foot, Stanton’s Achilles, Carp and Beni breaking bones. The first two were overuse issues, which is what you get when you play older, injury prone players every day. But when your backups are the ghost of Aaron Hicks and Starvin Marwin Gonzalez, it’s not like you can take those guys out more than for a quick breather. Add in solid offensive depth and those guys can get into a rhythm of 2 on 1 off and stay fresher.

[oldtimer]

We certainly are getting a look at how far the Sox are behind the AL East during the series against the Jays this weekend. Lack of pitching, poor hitting and generally poor field play. Obviously we can't put the same guys on the field and expect better in 2023. Just as obviously, we are limited by budget and prospects available to only be able to improve and close part of the gap in 2023. Bloom and the front office will be judged by how much forward progress we can make.

[Nick]

We certainly are getting a look at how far the Sox are behind the AL East during the series against the Jays this weekend. Lack of pitching, poor hitting and generally poor field play. Obviously we can't put the same guys on the field and expect better in 2023. Just as obviously, we are limited by budget and prospects available to only be able to improve and close part of the gap in 2023. Bloom and the front office will be judged by how much forward progress we can make.

 

We all know our pitching situation. But our offense looks tired and old to me. Sure looks like we're staring at the sky climbing out of basement.

[Nick]

“The effort is there. The results are not there,” Cora said. “We show up tomorrow and I would never doubt the way we prepare, the way we go about it. Right now, they’re playing better than us.”

 

We expect "effort" from professional athletes. I expect "effort" from my high school team. Effort is requirement, not asked.

 

It's a bottom line game at the professional level.

 

WE SUCKED! WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO TO FIX IT? MR. KENNEDY IS AMAZED SOME FANS THINK WE ARE CHEAP. I GOT A MESSAGE FOR YOU MR. KENNEDY. WE'RE NOT CHEAP. BUT WE SURE SPEND MONEY UNWISELY. HOW ABOUT GETTING VALUE IN RETURN?

 

At the end of the day, I don't want us to sign Xander for f***ing sentimentality. Sign him to whatever if he's worth it. f*** the intangibles. That's what losers say.

 

Hey have a nice Sunday everybody.

Edited October 2, 2022 by Nick

[moonslav59]

It’s all gonna depend on Judge. If he walks, then all chips are on the table. If he stays, I think you see an offensive retooling but no other major all star additions. Cabrera, Dominguez, Wells, Peraza, and Volpe will either begin 23 with the big club or make their debuts. No point in blocking them if the offense has the now firepower.

 

For as great a year as the Yanks had, they had some dumb injury luck again that could be mitigated by having competitive depth. DJ’s foot, Stanton’s Achilles, Carp and Beni breaking bones. The first two were overuse issues, which is what you get when you play older, injury prone players every day. But when your backups are the ghost of Aaron Hicks and Starvin Marwin Gonzalez, it’s not like you can take those guys out more than for a quick breather. Add in solid offensive depth and those guys can get into a rhythm of 2 on 1 off and stay fresher.

 

The problem is, if you spend all your budget on Judge, you won't spend on the depth you need.

 

Same with the Sox: if we spend on Bogey and Devers, there will not be enough to fill other high need areas, enough to win, unless and until we start getting more and better farm infusions. We did see an uptick, this year with Casas and Bello, and it looks like more are coming in 2023 and 2024, but will or can it be enough?

[Nick]

The problem is, if you spend all your budget on Judge, you won't spend on the depth you need.

 

Same with the Sox: if we spend on Bogey and Devers, there will not be enough to fill other high need areas, enough to win, unless and until we start getting more and better farm infusions. We did see an uptick, this year with Casas and Bello, and it looks like more are coming in 2023 and 2024, but will or can it be enough?

 

I do think we need some power, not just doubles. Look at Yankees and Jays. Rays are different, they have pitching, defense and speed.

 

Question for you Moon.

 

Would your rather spend, say $55M on Devers/Xander or $37.5M on Judge plus a defensive shortstop?

 

You often stated, correctly, signing Xander won't make us any better.

 

Are we better off using the delta, $17.5M to acquire another player to go along with Judge than keeping Devers/Xander?

[notin]

I do think we need some power, not just doubles. Look at Yankees and Jays. Rays are different, they have pitching, defense and speed.

 

Question for you Moon.

 

Would your rather spend, say $55M on Devers/Xander or $37.5M on Judge plus a defensive shortstop?

 

You often stated, correctly, signing Xander won't make us any better.

 

Are we better off using the delta, $17.5M to acquire another player to go along with Judge than keeping Devers/Xander?

 

Don’t underestimate pitching, defense and speed. I’ve seen plenty of Red Sox teams that lead or were close to the league lead in home runs and runs scored and simply missed the playoffs. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a Sox team that lead the league in pitching and missed out. Maybe once?

[Bellhorn04]

I do think we need some power, not just doubles. Look at Yankees and Jays. Rays are different, they have pitching, defense and speed.

 

Question for you Moon.

 

Would your rather spend, say $55M on Devers/Xander or $37.5M on Judge plus a defensive shortstop?

 

You often stated, correctly, signing Xander won't make us any better.

 

Are we better off using the delta, $17.5M to acquire another player to go along with Judge than keeping Devers/Xander?

 

I'd rather spend the $55 mill on Devers/Xander.

 

I certainly agree that does nothing to improve us.

 

Improvements have to come from money freed up by Price, JDM, Eovaldi, JBJ and Vazquez.

[Nick]

I'd rather spend the $55 mill on Devers/Xander.

 

I certainly agree that does nothing to improve us.

 

Improvements have to come from money freed up by Price, JDM, Eovaldi, JBJ and Vazquez.

 

I understand your point.

 

We are spending currently $31M on those two. We need $24M from NOT extending/signing/retirement of Price, JDM, Eovaldi, JBJ and Vaz.

 

I honestly would look to see what we can get for Devers. No veteran is untouchable at this point.

 

By the way, I believe the management made a BIG MISTAKE by not getting under the luxury tax limit. They overvalued their hand. We not only finished DEAD LAST but we stayed above the luxury tax limit. That may come back to haunt us if in fact we are forced to budget constraint due to it.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

As bad as the current situation is the Red Sox have not had an extended run of bad teams in my lifetime. And I'm 63. The longest stretch of under .500 seasons was the 3 seasons from '92-'94 and one of those seasons they were 80-82. I have to keep the faith that they will right the ship but to be honest I'm not sure how they can return to the Red Sox with what they have on the roster and on the farm.

[Bellhorn04]

I understand your point.

 

We are spending currently $31M on those two. We need $24M from NOT extending/signing/retirement of Price, JDM, Eovaldi, JBJ and Vaz.

 

I honestly would look to see what we can get for Devers. No veteran is untouchable at this point.

 

By the way, I believe the management made a BIG MISTAKE by not getting under the luxury tax limit. They overvalued their hand. We not only finished DEAD LAST but we stayed above the luxury tax limit. That may come back to haunt us if in fact we are forced to budget constraint due to it.

 

That's true. But they made the decision with eyes wide open, so it must have fit into the plans.

 

Teams like the Dodgers and the Mets are basically saying screw the tax and penalties. Maybe JH is looking in that direction?

[moonslav59]

That's true. But they made the decision with eyes wide open, so it must have fit into the plans.

 

Teams like the Dodgers and the Mets are basically saying screw the tax and penalties. Maybe JH is looking in that direction?

 

It helps that the Dodgers often hit jackpot on their mega signings, except for a few- like Bauer. Many felt they overpaid, bigtime for a 1Bman, Freeman, but they guy is top 10 in fWAR, this year, and if he declines, they'll just add another big contract.

 

We have largely swung a missed on our most recent big signings (Sale, Price, HRam, Pablito and back to Crawford), or at best, got sporadic or mixed results like from Nate & JD.

 

Bogey was an extension that added 1 year to his team control with the opt-out. That one worked. The Story signing has not started out well, but it looks better than the Sale signing.

 

IMO, the free agents signings only work, when you have a foundation established by a strong and deep farm and a GM who has the ability to fill lower paid roles well. I know Bloom has had mixed results on the lower paid players, but overall, I don't think we should have expected more than Whitlock, Wacha, Hill, Strahm, Schreiber, Refsnyder, Arroyo, McGuire and a few others.

 

We are starting to see an uptick in farm help, and that is a good sign. Of course, much of that is speculative, but we can look back at all the farm help we've gotten from 2016 or 2017 to 2021, and count on one hand (or finger) all the positive players- namely Houck. It's no surprise we can't fill all the high need areas on $40M.

[moonslav59]

That's true. But they made the decision with eyes wide open, so it must have fit into the plans.

 

Teams like the Dodgers and the Mets are basically saying screw the tax and penalties. Maybe JH is looking in that direction?

 

It's hard to know what his spending plan looks like. History shows he does NOT spend big, unless and until we seem to be 1-2 key pieces away from being highly competitive, and then, the mega spending does not last for more than 1-2 years. He has never paid a 3rd year tax.

 

The key questions are:

 

Is he prepared to go 3 years over and be significantly over in year 2 or 3?

 

Are we 1-2 key players away from being highly competitive, orwill that long-standing strategy be abandoned?

 

Perhaps, only Henry knows.

 

My guess, the answer is no to both questions. I think we reset in 2023 or 2024. I think we are not just 2 key players away from being highly competitive, and that is beyond bringing Bogey and Devers back beyond 2023 and 2024, which will be costly without adding anything to what we already have.

[Bellhorn04]

It's hard to know what his spending plan looks like. History shows he does NOT spend big, unless and until we seem to be 1-2 key pieces away from being highly competitive, and then, the mega spending does not last for more than 1-2 years. He has never paid a 3rd year tax.

 

The key questions are:

 

Is he prepared to go 3 years over and be significantly over in year 2 or 3?

 

Are we 1-2 key players away from being highly competitive, orwill that long-standing strategy be abandoned?

 

Perhaps, only Henry knows.

 

My guess, the answer is no to both questions. I think we reset in 2023 or 2024. I think we are not just 2 key players away from being highly competitive, and that is beyond bringing Bogey and Devers back beyond 2023 and 2024, which will be costly without adding anything to what we already have.

 

You also have to consider the cost to Henry of falling attendance and TV ratings.

[moonslav59]

As bad as the current situation is the Red Sox have not had an extended run of bad teams in my lifetime. And I'm 63. The longest stretch of under .500 seasons was the 3 seasons from '92-'94 and one of those seasons they were 80-82. I have to keep the faith that they will right the ship but to be honest I'm not sure how they can return to the Red Sox with what they have on the roster and on the farm.

 

The farm is much better, and Casas and Bello are the best two prospects we've called up in the same year in many many years, but we are not "there, yet," and it takes time to start seeing farm results, especially when you focus on adding HS players in the draft and 17-18 year olds in IFA.

[moonslav59]

You also have to consider the cost to Henry of falling attendance and TV ratings.

 

Very true, but that has happened before. He did spend big from 2016-2018, but we still never went 3 years over or paid a mega tax in any year, like the Dodgers and soon to be Mets.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I do think we need some power, not just doubles. Look at Yankees and Jays. Rays are different, they have pitching, defense and speed.

 

Question for you Moon.

 

Would your rather spend, say $55M on Devers/Xander or $37.5M on Judge plus a defensive shortstop?

 

You often stated, correctly, signing Xander won't make us any better.

 

Are we better off using the delta, $17.5M to acquire another player to go along with Judge than keeping Devers/Xander?

 

I'm not Moon, but have a follow-up question: let's assume 30-year old Judge and 26-year old Devers each get 10-year megacontracts this winter; which one will produce a higher WAR for the next decade? Before you answer, consider which one will miss the most games with injuries...

[Bellhorn04]

Very true, but that has happened before. He did spend big from 2016-2018, but we still never went 3 years over or paid a mega tax in any year, like the Dodgers and soon to be Mets.

 

There's also the "stigma" of 5 last place finishes in 11 years...

 

That has not happened for a long long time.

[moonslav59]

I do think we need some power, not just doubles. Look at Yankees and Jays. Rays are different, they have pitching, defense and speed.

 

Question for you Moon.

 

Would your rather spend, say $55M on Devers/Xander or $37.5M on Judge plus a defensive shortstop?

 

You often stated, correctly, signing Xander won't make us any better.

 

Are we better off using the delta, $17.5M to acquire another player to go along with Judge than keeping Devers/Xander?

 

I think I'd rather have Devers and a defensive SS who can hit well, but not at Bogey's rate. Just those signings, alone, will restrict how many other psoitions we can upgrade in significant ways.

 

With a continued restricted budget, I'm not sure it's realistic to assume greatness, until our farm can start providing 1-2 key additions each year. Casas and Bello might be the first time that has happened in a long while, unless you want to count Houck and Whitlock as one season, in which it technically was not or additions fro "our farm," which Whitlock was not.

[moonslav59]

I'm not Moon, but have a follow-up question: let's assume 30-year old Judge and 26-year old Devers each get 10-year megacontracts this winter; which one will produce a higher WAR for the next decade? Before you answer, consider which one will miss the most games with injuries...

 

I'm the driver of the Devers Forevers bandwagon, so I think that answers that question. His age and durability makes the choice clear, to me.

[moonslav59]

There's also the "stigma" of 5 last place finishes in 11 years...

 

That has not happened for a long long time.

 

Indeed, and the 2 rings in those 11 years helps mitigate that pain- for some, more than others.

 

I'm not saying I want us to repeat the last 11 years, again, but I'd much rather see that than what I saw from 1972-2003.

[Nick]

Indeed, and the 2 rings in those 11 years helps mitigate that pain- for some, more than others.

 

I'm not saying I want us to repeat the last 11 years, again, but I'd much rather see that than what I saw from 1972-2003.

 

We're just so far away, in my opinion from winning it all that I question extending Xander. If signing Xander and then our only other choice is to wait on the farm, then I'm not very optimistic about our future. If we don't have the issue of extending Devers, then I'd say go for it. I'm more worried about extending number of years than the money.

[moonslav59]

We're just so far away, in my opinion from winning it all that I question extending Xander. If signing Xander and then our only other choice is to wait on the farm, then I'm not very optimistic about our future. If we don't have the issue of extending Devers, then I'd say go for it. I'm more worried about extending number of years than the money.

 

We've never had a GM trade so many top prospects in just a 3 year window.

 

We have not even reached the total rebuild point, but we are closer, IMO. Then, we need to expect a delay in seeing results, as prospects don't jump from Rookie ball to MLB in 1-2 years. Expect even longer due to Bloom's choice to draft HS players over college players. Bloom has gone out of his way to add farm pieces that are nearer to ML ready than draftees and IFA via trades and Rule 5, but "How Soon is Now?" (Shout out to The Smiths.)

 

I'm hopeful the wait won't be too long, and I felt pretty down after 2011 and 2012 and again after 2014, too, but those farms were in better shape, and the checkbook was opened more quickly and fully in subsequent years than we've seen until March 2022, and that was not for a Price-type contact, either. (or, CC, AGon or Sale.)

 

I get the impatience. I get the frustration. I get the feeling that someone needs to be blamed for where we are, right now, and Bloom is the obvious and easiest target.

 

To each his own.

 

Edited October 2, 2022 by moonslav59

[Nick]

The 34-year-old Pham hasn’t had the best season (.700 OPS with Boston) and he plays only left field, decreasing Boston’s roster flexibility. But he has power, hits lefties especially well and the Red Sox will need a corner outfielder next year if the mutual option isn’t exercised. Pham has played a respectable left field for Boston and leads the majors with a career-high 15 outfield assists. Eight of those assists have come since being traded to Boston.

 

It might be an overpay for Boston but that’s something a big-market team should be willing to do short-term to keep a player if it feels he’s a fit.

 

Would the Rays do this? All the sudden we're paying Kike $10M, Pham $12M, what mediocre player is next?

[notin]

The 34-year-old Pham hasn’t had the best season (.700 OPS with Boston) and he plays only left field, decreasing Boston’s roster flexibility. But he has power, hits lefties especially well and the Red Sox will need a corner outfielder next year if the mutual option isn’t exercised. Pham has played a respectable left field for Boston and leads the majors with a career-high 15 outfield assists. Eight of those assists have come since being traded to Boston.

 

It might be an overpay for Boston but that’s something a big-market team should be willing to do short-term to keep a player if it feels he’s a fit.

 

Would the Rays do this? All the sudden we're paying Kike $10M, Pham $12M, what mediocre player is next?

 

Pham’s option is $6mill, not $12mill.

 

It’s a mutual option, which means 99% of the time there’s no chance it gets exercised by both parties. The Sox should pass IMO…

[moonslav59]

The 34-year-old Pham hasn’t had the best season (.700 OPS with Boston) and he plays only left field, decreasing Boston’s roster flexibility. But he has power, hits lefties especially well and the Red Sox will need a corner outfielder next year if the mutual option isn’t exercised. Pham has played a respectable left field for Boston and leads the majors with a career-high 15 outfield assists. Eight of those assists have come since being traded to Boston.

 

It might be an overpay for Boston but that’s something a big-market team should be willing to do short-term to keep a player if it feels he’s a fit.

 

Would the Rays do this? All the sudden we're paying Kike $10M, Pham $12M, what mediocre player is next?

 

Pham's option is $6M with a $1.5 buyout, so we pay either $1.5 for him to leave or an additional $4.5M for him to play for us.

 

He could be our 4th OF'er/Platoon DH, but if we add a RF'er, I'd prefer Refsnyder as our 5th OF'er.

 

I don't think the 26 man roster has room for 2 back-up OF'ers slash RH'd hitting DHs. As much as it pains me to say it, Dalbec is probably a better bet as a platoon DH than either Pham or maybe Ref. I'm not all that happy with Hosmer as the LH'd DH platoon and back up 1Bman, but we may have to settle on going light at a couple positions.