A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

The front office will also decide the fate of Devers, and if they won't meet his price then Bloom will probably trade him before next season -- for a lot more than the LA package for Betts (with no Price attached).

 

Devers will probably get an arb salary of around $20 mill.

 

I've never thought that Price knocked down the talent return that much, but it's all up for speculation.

[notin]

I see this going one of two ways: the Sox commit to Bogaerts or just sign a much cheaper glove-first shortstop as a placeholder for the next two years until the Mayer Era begins. Big money won't be used for a marquis replacement like the Braves with Freeman-Olson. Spending large on Turner or Swanson instead of Bogey won't make the Red Sox any better.

 

Boston needs too much pitching to get back into contention, and both starters and relievers have to be the focus of the majority of investments this winter. The Sox also need to add a legitimate outfielder who can hit more than 10 home runs.

 

The front office will also decide the fate of Devers, and if they won't meet his price then Bloom will probably trade him before next season -- for a lot more than the LA package for Betts (with no Price attached).

 

If the Sox say goodbye to both X and Raffy, the only free agent infielder they might sign is Carlos Correa. When Correa played for Cora on the Puerto Rico team, he moved to third so Lindor could play shortstop; that kind of versatility and personality will grow in value when Mayer does arrive. Plus, Correa has a career-high .980 OPS at Fenway in AL road parks (100 PA min.).

 

Why do they need to say goodbye to Devers to sign Correa?

[notin]

Devers will probably get an arb salary of around $20 mill.

 

I've never thought that Price knocked down the talent return that much, but it's all up for speculation.

 

Agreed. I think Betts only having one year left at a cost of $25mill was a bigger factor…

[notin]

I call up Florida and offer a non top 5 prospect for Edward Cabrera, because we’re taking back Garcias contract. Sign Mancini and have 7 million left over for the bullpen.

 

Is there any indication Miami is willing to dilute the return by attacking players they signed less than 12 months ago?

 

It is possible they recognize they have a rare surplus of starting pitching and want to convert it to talent in other areas…

[notin]

Still like the idea of trying to pry Blake Snell from San Diego and taking the contract off Ha-Seoung Kim, who did post 3.2 fWAR last year.

 

No idea if San Diego is interested, but they do have two $300mill contracts right now and the acquisition of Juan Soto figures to add another mega contract that dwarves the deals for Machado and Tatis…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Why do they need to say goodbye to Devers to sign Correa?

 

They don't; I just don't think spending for a shortstop who will want more than Bogaerts is in the plans. But if the Sox need an entire new left side, Correa has already shown that he is amenable to moving to third for Alex Cora. Bogey has been there and said he is done with that.

[Bellhorn04]

Is there any indication Miami is willing to dilute the return by attacking players they signed less than 12 months ago?

 

It would be an unusual tactic.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Is there any indication Miami is willing to dilute the return by attacking players they signed less than 12 months ago?

 

It is possible they recognize they have a rare surplus of starting pitching and want to convert it to talent in other areas…

 

I guess they could attack Garcia with his own bat, since it wasn't doing him much good in producing a .583 OPS...

[mvp 78]

Folks, Story is not moving back to SS, I will eat my socks if this happens. It’s been discussed, analyzed, and agreed upon that 2nd is his home.

 

Also, the SS market is a lot deeper than the outfield market this off-season. And Kike is GG in CF. But moving him back to 2nd means you need TWO outfielders in a weak market including a CFer

 

He's been fantastic at 2b. Let's just leave him there.

[moonslav59]

Agreed. I think Betts only having one year left at a cost of $25mill was a bigger factor…

 

I think it was $27M. Add price's $16M and that was a huge budget relief trade.

[moonslav59]

It would be an unusual tactic.

 

I don't think it's unusual for cheap teams to trade off big contracts.

 

His $12M contract is 15% of their player payroll.

[Hugh2]

That wasn't a choice, and if that is all we're doing, we might as well do nothing and just go for a top draft pick.

 

I do apologize for not playing along, but adding an all star short stop, I was mixing up Trea Turner with Tray Mancini, along with a young ACE makes the team pretty good with bullpen help.

 

Regardless, it's never worth tanking for #1 pick. This is baseball, not football or the NBA. The draft lottery should even further desensitize tanking.

[oldtimer]

I meant Turner.

 

Turner would be great should Bogey prove to be impossible but that would mean commiting at least $25 mil for a significant period.

[moonslav59]

I do apologize for not playing along, but adding an all star short stop, I was mixing up Trea Turner with Tray Mancini, along with a young ACE makes the team pretty good with bullpen help.

 

Regardless, it's never worth tanking for #1 pick. This is baseball, not football or the NBA. The draft lottery should even further desensitize tanking.

 

I knew something was off. Turner, cabrera and pen help might be enough.

[moonslav59]

One trade on the BTV site caught my eye: Duran to KC for Dylan Coleman. I doubt KC would make this trade, but if we added Seabold or Murphy, maybe they would. That would fill one pen slot without losing much from the farm.

 

Then, make the much discussed trade with the Marlins for a SP'er. If we are forced to take Garcia or can get them to add OF'er Berti, we'd fill the RF slot as well. (Getting two SP'er would be another great idea, if possible.) I'm not sure what it takes, but if we have to part with a top prospect or two from Rafaela, Yorke, Mata, walter or Wikelman, it would allow us to spend more money on SS and the pen.

 

I know this is pure speculation, and these ideas are not new, but I think this is the only way we can get relevant in 2023 without going over the tax line, unless Bloom strikes gold with every signing.

[mvp 78]

One trade on the BTV site caught my eye: Duran to KC for Dylan Coleman. I doubt KC would make this trade, but if we added Seabold or Murphy, maybe they would. That would fill one pen slot without losing much from the farm.

 

Then, make the much discussed trade with the Marlins for a SP'er. If we are forced to take Garcia or can get them to add OF'er Berti, we'd fill the RF slot as well. (Getting two SP'er would be another great idea, if possible.) I'm not sure what it takes, but if we have to part with a top prospect or two from Rafaela, Yorke, Mata, walter or Wikelman, it would allow us to spend more money on SS and the pen.

 

I know this is pure speculation, and these ideas are not new, but I think this is the only way we can get relevant in 2023 without going over the tax line, unless Bloom strikes gold with every signing.

 

I'd move Duran in a heartbeat for an MLB regular.

[moonslav59]

I'd move Duran in a heartbeat for an MLB regular.

 

It would probably take more than Duran, Seabold & Murphy to get Coleman, but look what we got for Diekman.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think it's unusual for cheap teams to trade off big contracts.

 

His $12M contract is 15% of their player payroll.

 

I was just poking fun at another of notin's spelling glitches.

[mvp 78]

It would probably take more than Duran, Seabold & Murphy to get Coleman, but look what we got for Diekman.

 

I'd let those 3 guys go without worrying too much.

[moonslav59]

I'd let those 3 guys go without worrying too much.

 

Would you give Wikelman for Coleman?

[mvp 78]

Would you give Wikelman for Coleman?

 

I think people are getting overly excited about is last 3 starts in Greenville which are skewing their expectations of where he is as a player. He's Rule V draft eligible this year, so maybe they are looking into trading him? Maybe part of the reason they are sending him to the AFL is to make the determination to add to 40 man, trade or just sneak through the draft process? It's probably a fair trade, but I'd rather move a guy like Wikelman for someone who has actually closed out some MLB games.

[moonslav59]

I think people are getting overly excited about is last 3 starts in Greenville which are skewing their expectations of where he is as a player. He's Rule V draft eligible this year, so maybe they are looking into trading him? Maybe part of the reason they are sending him to the AFL is to make the determination to add to 40 man, trade or just sneak through the draft process? It's probably a fair trade, but I'd rather move a guy like Wikelman for someone who has actually closed out some MLB games.

 

Fair enough.

 

The thing I like about Coleman is the 5 years of team control remining and some ML experience that shows he has promise.

 

His 4.6 BB/9 is scary, but he K's more than 9 and has allowed on 6.3 Hits per 9 and 0.6 HR/9.

 

I think Wikelman has a lot of promise, but we need set-up guys in the pen, ASAP.

[moonslav59]

I think people are getting overly excited about is last 3 starts in Greenville which are skewing their expectations of where he is as a player. He's Rule V draft eligible this year, so maybe they are looking into trading him? Maybe part of the reason they are sending him to the AFL is to make the determination to add to 40 man, trade or just sneak through the draft process? It's probably a fair trade, but I'd rather move a guy like Wikelman for someone who has actually closed out some MLB games.

 

Would you give Rafaela, Duran and Wikelman for Barlow (2 yrs of control) & Coleman (5 yrs)?

 

BTV accepted this.

[mvp 78]

Would you give Rafaela, Duran and Wikelman for Barlow (2 yrs of control) & Coleman (5 yrs)?

 

BTV accepted this.

 

No.

[notin]

It would probably take more than Duran, Seabold & Murphy to get Coleman, but look what we got for Diekman.

 

Coleman is nothing special. I think you’re working too hard to get the slightly better version of Darwinzon here.

 

Now if you are talking about Staumont…

[notin]

I think people are getting overly excited about is last 3 starts in Greenville which are skewing their expectations of where he is as a player. He's Rule V draft eligible this year, so maybe they are looking into trading him? Maybe part of the reason they are sending him to the AFL is to make the determination to add to 40 man, trade or just sneak through the draft process? It's probably a fair trade, but I'd rather move a guy like Wikelman for someone who has actually closed out some MLB games.

 

 

Any closer you can get cout Wikkelman will take a back seat to Houck anyway…

[mvp 78]

Any closer you can get cout Wikkelman will take a back seat to Houck anyway…

 

Houck is a closer?

[Bellhorn04]

Houck is a closer?

 

Candidate.

[mvp 78]

Candidate.

 

Sox have lots of those going into next year: Schreiber, Whitlock, Houck, Barnes, FATBNL.

[notin]

Houck is a closer?

 

If he was healthy, he’d still be in the role.,.