A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Expensive dice roll. Remind me to never let Bloom take my money to Atlantic City.

 

The Paxton dice roll cost $5.5 mill on the tax payroll. Not really a huge amount.

[Old Red]

It kind of baffles me how many people want to bring back the exact same team we just watch implode in 2022. Some would get less money, like JD, but giving a hefty raise to Wacha, which I would do, $1M more to Nate and a $6M raise to Bogey, plus a hefty arb raise to devers, means we likely don't re-set and have nothing left over to make additions in RF and the pen. Plus, as you point out, we will, once again, rely on much better health from a group of SP'ers that have very poor health histories.

 

Who has said they want to bring back The Same Exact Team?

[Old Red]

YoU wErE iN tHe ClUbHoUsE?

 

No, and neither was you, so both are giving opinions on what we heard.

[mvp 78]

The Paxton dice roll cost $5.5 mill on the tax payroll. Not really a huge amount.

 

How many pitches did he throw this year? How much will it cost if they decide to use him for two years?

[Old Red]

I guess the rancor did not rise to the level of making Bogey and Hill not want to return, right?

 

My guess is JD and Wacha will soon say they want to return, too.

 

So you really think the so called rancor as you call it towards Bloom would drive players off especially Bogey from wanting to stay in Boston? They like playing in Boston, in Fenway, and in front of the Nation. They certainly aren’t playing for Bloom.

[moonslav59]

So you really think the so called rancor as you call it towards Bloom would drive players off especially Bogey from wanting to stay in Boston? They like playing in Boston, in Fenway, and in front of the Nation. They certainly aren’t playing for Bloom.

 

You guys sure played the rancor up, a lot more than you now seem to fell it matters.

 

Some went so far as to say, "Nobody will want to play here," after the way they traded Vaz without telling him.

[Old Red]

You guys sure played the rancor up, a lot more than you now seem to fell it matters.

 

Some went so far as to say, "Nobody will want to play here," after the way they traded Vaz without telling him.

 

Who said nobody will want to play here? I know clubhouse chemistry doesn’t matter to you, and it doesn’t show up on a analytics sheet, but ask the players in the clubhouse if it matters, or not.

[moonslav59]

Who has said they want to bring back The Same Exact Team?

 

Sounds like Jad is saying just that. He can correct me, if I'm wrong.

 

When I said bringing back Bogey will not make us better- just maybe staying the same at a higher cost- as I recall, you jumped down my throat, assuming I meant we'd be better without him.

[moonslav59]

So you really think the so called rancor as you call it towards Bloom would drive players off ...

 

No. My point was the exact and total opposite.

 

I do think there was clearly some rancor, but not enough to keep players from putting their trust in the Sox brass to not do to them what Bloom apparently did to Vaz, and wanting to stay with the Sox- bad clubhouse and all- a "team with players that "have no desire" and all- a team with a manager who mismanages his players to make them worse than they truly are. I could go on and on.

[Old Red]

No. My point was the exact and total opposite.

 

I do think there was clearly some rancor, but not enough to keep players from putting their trust in the Sox brass to not do to them what Bloom apparently did to Vaz, and wanting to stay with the Sox- bad clubhouse and all- a "team with players that "have no desire" and all- a team with a manager who mismanages his players to make them worse than they truly are. I could go on and on.

 

I don’t think there is Any Trust in Red Sox brass especially Bloom. The players will stick together, so the bad clubhouse is against Bloom.

[mvp 78]

So you really think the so called rancor as you call it towards Bloom would drive players off especially Bogey from wanting to stay in Boston? They like playing in Boston, in Fenway, and in front of the Nation. They certainly aren’t playing for Bloom.

 

If the rancor wasn't enough to keep the players from re-signing, why mention it at all? It means nothing then.

[mvp 78]

I don’t think there is Any Trust in Red Sox brass especially Bloom. The players will stick together, so the bad clubhouse is against Bloom.

 

Or the rancor is overplayed and the players were really just venting frustrations about their friends leaving.

[moonslav59]

Or the rancor is overplayed and the players were really just venting frustrations about their friends leaving.

 

100%

 

The losing didn't help, either.

 

Was the 2004 team all torn up over the Nomar trade?

[mvp 78]

100%

 

The losing didn't help, either.

 

Was the 2004 team all torn up over the Nomar trade?

 

I think they were tired of his s*** too.

[moonslav59]

I think they were tired of his s*** too.

 

Probably true, although from what I hear, they were not too thrilled with OCab hitting on their wives.

 

They weren't torn up over trading Manny, either.

 

There was not clubhouse left after the Lester, lackey, Peavy & Doubront sell-off.

 

What was the clubhouse like before & after the AGon, Beckett & CC trade?

[Bellhorn04]

How many pitches did he throw this year? How much will it cost if they decide to use him for two years?

 

Oh I get all that.

 

Who are the slam-dunk pitchers available at reasonable cost?

[mvp 78]

Oh I get all that.

 

Who are the slam-dunk pitchers available at reasonable cost?

 

This is what I said above:

 

If they are going to bring back Wacha, Hill and Eovaldi, I think it says more about how horrible this offseason's batch of FA pitchers are.

 

Guys that could work out if they signed and depending on the contract:

 

Rodon

Nola

deGrom

Bassitt

Kershaw

Morton

 

I'm not sure what "reasonable cost" has to do with anything as this is a Free Agent market we are talking about. Slam Dunk + Reasonable Cost really isn't a thing, right?

[moonslav59]

I think the best option is to trade for an ace and offer Wacha a QO, but neither happening is perhaps probable.

[Bellhorn04]

This is what I said above:

 

 

 

Guys that could work out if they signed and depending on the contract:

 

Rodon

Nola

deGrom

Bassitt

Kershaw

Morton

 

I'm not sure what "reasonable cost" has to do with anything as this is a Free Agent market we are talking about. Slam Dunk + Reasonable Cost really isn't a thing, right?

 

No, it isn't.

[mvp 78]

No, it isn't.

 

The goal isn't "cheap and slam dunk," but find a guy better than year 2 of the James Paxton Experience IMO. I don't think they'll pick up the full 2 year/26M Paxton deal, but stranger things have happened. I really doubt Paxton will take the 4M player option he has on his end if the Sox decline.

[moonslav59]

The goal isn't "cheap and slam dunk," but find a guy better than year 2 of the James Paxton Experience IMO. I don't think they'll pick up the full 2 year/26M Paxton deal, but stranger things have happened. I really doubt Paxton will take the 4M player option he has on his end if the Sox decline.

 

I don't think the Paxton signing was doe 2022. I think they viewed $26M/2 as a good deal. They may not, now, but I won't be surprised, at all, if they give him $26M.

[notin]

Who said nobody will want to play here? I know clubhouse chemistry doesn’t matter to you, and it doesn’t show up on a analytics sheet, but ask the players in the clubhouse if it matters, or not.

 

If you asked 26 players whether or not clubhouse chemistry matters, you’d probably get over 20 different answers, and the only repeated one would be “what are you talking about?” (I suppose “who let you in here?” would also be very common.)

 

Trying to simplify the dynamics of the clubhouse is pointless. The players are all humans and all react in their own way each stimulus. The whole notion of this idyllic Kumbaya Environment is very often some columnist that didn’t talk to players just extrapolating some minute situation into pretending it’s the entire atmosphere.

 

I’m not even convinced you have 26 happy players on winning teams. Why? Because players are human…

[notin]

The goal isn't "cheap and slam dunk," but find a guy better than year 2 of the James Paxton Experience IMO. I don't think they'll pick up the full 2 year/26M Paxton deal, but stranger things have happened. I really doubt Paxton will take the 4M player option he has on his end if the Sox decline.

 

I don’t think the free agent market (which already lost Charlie Morton) is going to provide that without taking on some contract that will become the next Chris Sale deadweight much earlier than expected…

[notin]

I think the best option is to trade for an ace and offer Wacha a QO, but neither happening is perhaps probable.

 

Re-signing Wacha is a good idea.

 

As for pitchers to trade for, I suspect the following will be available (besides the five from Miami):

 

Blake Snell

Aaron Civale

John Means

Jack Flaherty

Brad Keller

Brandon Woodruff

Antonio Senzatela

Dakota Hudson

 

 

Probably a score of others..

[moonslav59]

Re-signing Wacha is a good idea.

 

As for pitchers to trade for, I suspect the following will be available (besides the five from Miami):

 

Blake Snell

Aaron Civale

John Means

Jack Flaherty

Brad Keller

Brandon Woodruff

Antonio Senzatela

Dakota Hudson

 

 

Probably a score of others..

 

Most notably, a Marlin starter.

[notin]

Most notably, a Marlin starter.

 

I left them out with a mention, but they are (with BTV surplus values):

 

Lopez 35.2

Rogers 40.2

Cabrera 9.1

Luzardo 22.1

Sanchez 8.8

Garrett 15.9

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If you asked 26 players whether or not clubhouse chemistry matters, you’d probably get over 20 different answers, and the only repeated one would be “what are you talking about?” (I suppose “who let you in here?” would also be very common.)

 

Trying to simplify the dynamics of the clubhouse is pointless. The players are all humans and all react in their own way each stimulus. The whole notion of this idyllic Kumbaya Environment is very often some columnist that didn’t talk to players just extrapolating some minute situation into pretending it’s the entire atmosphere.

 

I’m not even convinced you have 26 happy players on winning teams. Why? Because players are human…

 

Ah, I knew an old pro who always used to say, "The team that drinks together wins together." Think of Kevin Millar handing out shots of bourbon in the clubhouse before the '03 ALCS games.

 

Although Jack Daniels can make friends out of foes, and foes out of friends.

[harmony]

Re-signing Wacha is a good idea.

 

As for pitchers to trade for, I suspect the following will be available (besides the five from Miami):

 

Blake Snell

Aaron Civale

John Means

Jack Flaherty

Brad Keller

Brandon Woodruff

Antonio Senzatela

Dakota Hudson

 

 

Probably a score of others..

Any interest in 28-year-old Seattle righthander Chris Flexen, who in two seasons with the Mariners has posted an ERA of 3.62 in 63 appearances, including 52 starts?

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/flexech01.shtml

 

In December 2020 the Mariners signed the former New York Met who had spent the previous season in the Korean Baseball Organization. According to Spotrac, Flexen comes with four years of team control but will earn $8 million in 2023 under a vested option.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/seattle-mariners/chris-flexen-21243/

 

Flexen and Matt Brash entered the 2022 season in the Seattle starting rotation but were replaced by deadline acquisition Luis Castillo and emerging rookie George Kirby. The Mariners control Flexen, Brash and their current five starters through at least the 2025 season (all but Marco Gonzales through 2026). A Seattle farm system depleted by graduations still has promising starters Emerson Hancock, Bryce Miller and Taylor Dollard, who concluded the 2022 season at Double A, often the last stop for Mariner pitching prospects before the MLB callup.

 

Just a thought.

Edited October 1, 2022 by harmony

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Any interest in 28-year-old Seattle righthander Chris Flexen, who in two seasons with the Mariners has posted an ERA of 3.62 in 63 appearances, including 52 starts?

 

 

This winter, Chaim Bloom should have interest in any big league pitcher not wearing a shirt that says Red Sox. Hopefully, not many of those will be guys cut by previous clubs, recovering from injuries that caused them to miss the past season or two, or with multiple arm tattoos but zero needle holes from vaccines.

[moonslav59]

I left them out with a mention, but they are (with BTV surplus values):

 

Lopez 35.2

Rogers 40.2

Cabrera 9.1

Luzardo 22.1

Sanchez 8.8

Garrett 15.9

 

Not a complete list and some would be very hard to pry from their current team.

 

BTV Values (Yrs of control)

6+

40.7 Ashby

29.9 Hall (BAL)

28.8 Abel

22.6 Ashcraft

 

5

38.8 Lodolo

34.5 Duran (MIN)

28.8 Ryan (MIN)

27.8 Detmers

27.6 Gore

27.6 Greene (CIN)

23.1 Contreras (PIT)

15.9 Garrett

15.7 Lynch )KCR)

15.3 Ober

10.5 Gray (WSH)

9.1 Cabrera

8.8 Sanchez

7.8 Kremer

 

4

68.7 Peralta

40.2 Rogers

39.4 Shubal

31.6 Sandoval (LAA)

29.6 McKenzie (CLE)

28.6 Wright (ATL)

11.8 Lambert

11.7 Irvin

11.1 Alzolay

 

3

64.7 Cease

47.0 Gallen

31.2 Suarez (PHI)

29.3 Singer

27.5 Williams (MIL)

22.1 Luzardo

21.7 Manning

20.1 Javier

19.7 Keller

17.8 Kopech

12.9 Kelly (AZ)

11.8 Antone

10.3 Quantrill

10.0 Civale

9.8 Urquidy

 

2

94.1 Burnes

57.8 Bieber

35.2 Lopez

33.2 Woodruff

23.1 Turnbull

19.8 Gallegos

5.8 Means

 

1

72.2 Ohtani

35.3 Nola

13.0 Mahle

12.6 Giolito

2.2 Snell