Time For the Hypo Trade Talks to Begin ?

[Kimmi]

If they just meet the expectations of a normal season going forward, they should be competitive. Seems like the good luck with health from last year has turned on them this year. It happens.

 

If I had to rank my frustrations:

 

Casas injury

Bullpen mess

Verdugo regression

Dalbec regression

Misc pitching injuries

Black hole at bottom third of lineup

 

JBJ/Story/AAA pitchers/Cordero don't really bother me all that much.

 

I think my frustration has been with the offense's (on the whole) inability to score runs during our bad stretches, especially to begin the season.

 

I don't have any problems with Verdugo. IMO, he has been the victim of some poor breaks. His expected stats are much better than his actual stats. xBA - .308, xSLG - .503, xwOBA - .358.

[mvp 78]

I think my frustration has been with the offense's (on the whole) inability to score runs during our bad stretches, especially to begin the season.

 

I don't have any problems with Verdugo. IMO, he has been the victim of some poor breaks. His expected stats are much better than his actual stats. xBA - .308, xSLG - .503, xwOBA - .358.

 

His statcast does look really good, but it still hasn't turned around. My other causes for concern are his defense getting worse and he's getting a lot slower. Without an infusion of power into his game, I'm not sure what his value is and he doesn't really Barrel the ball. He's a contact hitter who is getting slower by the day. Notin has said that the change in the shift should help his game, but I'm not so sure. His wOBA with shift vs no shift isn't all that different.

 

I think he just doesn't have a swing suited for Fenway (per the Expected HR by Park).

 

Home

56 wRC+

Away

111 wRC+

[moonslav59]

With Duran and Verdugo both clearly suited for almost exclusive LF duty, I'm thinking one might be traded at the deadline or this winter.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

If they just meet the expectations of a normal season going forward, they should be competitive. Seems like the good luck with health from last year has turned on them this year. It happens.

 

If I had to rank my frustrations:

 

Casas injury

Bullpen mess

Verdugo regression

Dalbec regression

Misc pitching injuries

Black hole at bottom third of lineup

 

JBJ/Story/AAA pitchers/Cordero don't really bother me all that much.

 

How about a total 16 HR's and 75 RBI from the SOX 3 & 4 batters? I'd consider that frustrating.

[mvp 78]

How about a total 16 HR's and 75 RBI from the SOX 3 & 4 batters? I'd consider that frustrating.

 

I'm not concerned about Xander only having 7 HR and 37 RBI and JD only having 9 HR and 38 RBI.

 

1. RBI is a function of the guys hitting in before them. Hitters 9 and 1 have been not great. Kiké was poor for long stretches and they stuck with him leading off.

2. I think I'm not surprised by JD's power decreasing. 481 SLG this year. His SLG from 5/1/21 - 10/1/21 was 473 with 19 HR. He had a strong April, but tailed off afterwards. He's just continuing that trend. Even so, he has a 137 wRC+ which is solid. Not great for 20M, but solid.

3. Xander has matched the 137 wRC+, which is second highest of his career. I don't know if I could expect much more out of him. Great batting average and OBP. If he continues this pace, he'll have a career best fWAR. hard to complain.

[moonslav59]

I'm not concerned about Xander only having 7 HR and 37 RBI and JD only having 9 HR and 38 RBI.

 

1. RBI is a function of the guys hitting in before them. Hitters 9 and 1 have been not great. Kiké was poor for long stretches and they stuck with him leading off.

 

I don't believe that clutch is a repeatable skill, but there is no denying Bogey and JD have come up short with men on base and with RISP, this year.

 

RISP

PA/RBI

113/33 Bogey 4 HR

112/36 Verdugo 1

110/30 JD 3

99/46 Story 6

86/30 Devers 6

86/29 Vaz 2

 

Men on Base

193/43 Bogey 4 HRs

185/47 Verdugo 5

175/33 JD 4

171/51 Story 8

161/45 Devers 12

126/32 Vaz 2

[Bellhorn04]

I don't believe that clutch is a repeatable skill, but there is no denying Bogey and JD have come up short with men on base and with RISP, this year.

 

RISP

PA/RBI

113/33 Bogey 4 HR

112/36 Verdugo 1

110/30 JD 3

99/46 Story 6

86/30 Devers 6

86/29 Vaz 2

 

Men on Base

193/43 Bogey 4 HRs

185/47 Verdugo 5

175/33 JD 4

171/51 Story 8

161/45 Devers 12

126/32 Vaz 2

 

But Bogey's OPS with RISP is .831, and with men on it's .861, so sometimes even the RBI numbers don't tell the whole story.

[notin]

With Duran and Verdugo both clearly suited for almost exclusive LF duty, I'm thinking one might be traded at the deadline or this winter.

 

Is Verdugo really a disaster in RF?

 

He does have the arm, and a -2.7 UZR/150 is not ideal, it’s basically just below average…

[notin]

I don't believe that clutch is a repeatable skill, but there is no denying Bogey and JD have come up short with men on base and with RISP, this year.

 

RISP

PA/RBI

113/33 Bogey 4 HR

112/36 Verdugo 1

110/30 JD 3

99/46 Story 6

86/30 Devers 6

86/29 Vaz 2

 

Men on Base

193/43 Bogey 4 HRs

185/47 Verdugo 5

175/33 JD 4

171/51 Story 8

161/45 Devers 12

126/32 Vaz 2

 

 

Both are less than productive, but Bogaerts especially has never been an RBI machine…

[mvp 78]

Is Verdugo really a disaster in RF?

 

He does have the arm, and a -2.7 UZR/150 is not ideal, it’s basically just below average…

 

My question is that his DRS was much better in LF in previous years, but is far worse this year. If his defense was "just below average" prior to this year in RF, how much worse would it look going forward?

[mvp 78]

Both are less than productive, but Bogaerts especially has never been an RBI machine…

 

He was much better at getting RBI when Mookie was hitting before him.

[jad]

He was much better at getting RBI when Mookie was hitting before him.

 

Yeah, this team was better when they had Mookie. I wonder why that is. (the problem with analytics is that there will always be an abstruse stat to support your predetermined position. You know, like Devers is worth only 180 million over 8 years, or that Bogaerts is not worth a long-term contract, or that Cordero is better than Benentendi, or that you can find middle relief pitchers off the scrap heap who will help your team as much as good ones or that Robles fills a need or that a .220 hitter is worth a long term contract ...)

Edited July 20, 2022 by jad

[vegasbob]

A sweep by TOR almost gets us to 6.

 

I’m not predicting- just asking what people think it would take to be sellers or non serious buyers.

 

Of the 11 games before the literal deadline, I'm guessing 4-7 against these opponents , and Bloom will be very tempted to move Bogaerts and/or JDM, only to see August/September attendance fall off sharply, amid calls for his head.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I know who the Red Sox should trade for: Kyle Schwarber. I wish the Red Sox could figure out how to get (and keep) players like him.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Why am I tempted to believe that the Red Sox are going to go for it rather than sell off and begin filling the massive holes they have on their roster for 2023. Maybe I'm just overly cynical.

 

I think the Red Sox should start planning for 2023 now; 2022 is over, but will they?

[Fan_since_Boggs]

With Duran and Verdugo both clearly suited for almost exclusive LF duty, I'm thinking one might be traded at the deadline or this winter.

 

I hope so. Hopefully one of the two will be moved at the deadline as the Red Sox begin to rebuild the entire OF for next season. The OF is a complete mess but maybe it can be fixed for 2023.

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah, this team was better when they had Mookie. I wonder why that is. (the problem with analytics is that there will always be an abstruse stat to support your predetermined position. You know, like Devers is worth only 180 million over 8 years, or that Bogaerts is not worth a long-term contract, or that Cordero is better than Benentendi, or that you can find middle relief pitchers off the scrap heap who will help your team as much as good ones or that Robles fills a need or that a .220 hitter is worth a long term contract ...)

 

We also got Winckowski for Beni.

 

Bloom is not all bad.

[Bellhorn04]

I know who the Red Sox should trade for: Kyle Schwarber. I wish the Red Sox could figure out how to get (and keep) players like him.

 

Piece of cake. You just have to give him a deal for 4 years for $79 million...

[Bellhorn04]

Schwarber is hitting .208 BTW.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We also got Winckowski for Beni.

 

Bloom is not all bad.

 

The sad part is if the Sox finish last the next two years and ownership loses patience, the truth may never come out: it's really not Bloom-the-guy, but the guys that changed direction and hired him for the Bloom "era"...

[Larry Cook]

Why is a yankee pitcher publicly saying he hopes Soto is not traded to the Red Sox?

 

Hang’em Chaim swooping in for the kill?

[moonslav59]

Is Verdugo really a disaster in RF?

 

He does have the arm, and a -2.7 UZR/150 is not ideal, it’s basically just below average…

 

When we got Renfroe, I thought we'd see Renfroe in LF and Verdugo in RF. I thought Dugo looked OK in RF.

 

It seems obvious, Cora & Bloom do NOT want Dugo in RF. Zero innings, this year.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Why not trade Duran and go get Conforto ? Not sure how rusty he is but I’m sure he can handle Boston .Mike has pop and a good throwing arm he’s a better player than Duran and Verdugo on the cheap .Love to see he and Drury get a look by Chaim if he’s going cheap on position players and maybe trade for a starter either in Oakland or Cincy . Edited July 21, 2022 by Swiharts Ghost

[Swiharts Ghost]

Maybe give Drury a first base mitt give Conforto RF ?

[illinoisredsox]

Why is a yankee pitcher publicly saying he hopes Soto is not traded to the Red Sox?

 

Hang’em Chaim swooping in for the kill?

 

The nightmare scenario is Soto being traded to the Yankees. That would pretty much eliminate the one weak spot they have, Gallo.

[notin]

Why not trade Duran and go get Conforto ? Not sure how rusty he is but I’m sure he can handle Boston .Mike has pop and a good throwing arm he’s a better player than Duran and Verdugo on the cheap .Love to see he and Drury get a look by Chaim if he’s going cheap on position players and maybe trade for a starter either in Oakland or Cincy .

 

 

1. Conforto is a free agent.

 

2. Conforto hasn’t swung a bat in nearly a year.

 

3. Conforto hasn’t swung a bat well in nearly 2 years.

[moonslav59]

The nightmare scenario is Soto being traded to the Yankees. That would pretty much eliminate the one weak spot they have, Gallo.

 

For the same reason I would hope we don’t trade the world for Soto, then pay him 20+% of our payroll for 14 years, I hope the Yanks do trade for him.

 

A dream not a nightmare.

[notin]

For the same reason I would hope we don’t trade the world for Soto, then pay him 20+% of our payroll for 14 years, I hope the Yanks do trade for him.

 

A dream not a nightmare.

 

The main reason to trade for Soto is he is the perfect replacement for a team that took a PR beating for trading Betts, especially since that was a straight up financial move. The funny thing is, had the Sox kept Betts and let him walk, the PR hit would be less as it would have at least made a lot of people blame the departure on Mookie and his “unreasonable” contract demands. (And no one seems to acknowledge that signing Betts back then potentially meant losing Bogaerts after 2019.)

 

Certainly acquiring Soto would at least restore some fan base faith that the Sox will pay for superstar talent. But on this case, would t that be able to extend Devers? And how much potential minimum wage talent (that would become even more necessary) would have to go just to get the rights to negotiate with Soto?

 

I’d love Soto in Boston, but the overall price just looks too prohibitive…

[mvp 78]

We also got Winckowski for Beni.

 

Bloom is not all bad.

 

I believe moon has had several "missives" regarding Bloom's moves. A lot of them have been of the "dumpster dive" ilk (Osich, , but that was really out of necessity.

 

Good:

Rule V drafting

MLB drafting

International signings

Plawecki

Perez

Pillar signing and trade (Wallace)

Workman/Hembree trade (Pivetta/Seabold)

Renfroe signing

Kiké

Shaw 2021

Iggy 2021

Schwarber trade

Robles trade 2021 only

Schreiber

Letting ERod go

Wacha

Hill

Refsnyder

Strahm

 

Bad:

2020 bullpen

2020 starting rotation depth

Peraza

Marwin Gonzalez

Garrett Richards

Barnes extension

Chavis trade (Austin Davis)

Diekman

Not having a predetermined plan for Houck/Whitlock going into 2022

 

Undetermined:

Betts trade - (Verdugo/Wong/Downs) probably good

Renfroe trade (JBJ/Binelas/Hamilton) - probably bad

Beni trade - (Winckowski) probably good

Paxton

Story

Xander/Raffy decision

[mvp 78]

The main reason to trade for Soto is he is the perfect replacement for a team that took a PR beating for trading Betts, especially since that was a straight up financial move. The funny thing is, had the Sox kept Betts and let him walk, the PR hit would be less as it would have at least made a lot of people blame the departure on Mookie and his “unreasonable” contract demands. (And no one seems to acknowledge that signing Betts back then potentially meant losing Bogaerts after 2019.)

 

Certainly acquiring Soto would at least restore some fan base faith that the Sox will pay for superstar talent. But on this case, would t that be able to extend Devers? And how much potential minimum wage talent (that would become even more necessary) would have to go just to get the rights to negotiate with Soto?

 

I’d love Soto in Boston, but the overall price just looks too prohibitive…

 

Yup. It's a crazy price. Reminds me of the Herschel Walker to Minnesota deal.