Time For the Hypo Trade Talks to Begin ?

[mvp 78]

Still trying to figure out how the pitching geniuses at Tampa thought it was a good deal to trade Joe Ryan for two months of a 40-year old DH last year.

 

Anyway, the BTV site probably exploded.

 

Number of real-life trades: 345

Number of those trades accepted by our model: 327

Acceptance rate: 94.8%

Average margin of error: 1.7

 

And here are the records of a few recent trades that our model got right:

 

Craig Kimbrel to the Dodgers

 

Matt Olson to the Braves

 

Mitch Garver to the Rangers

 

Max Scherzer, Trea Turner to the Dodgers

 

Kris Bryant to the Giants

 

Kyle Gibson, Ian Kennedy to the Phillies

 

Javier Baez to the Mets

 

Francisco Lindor to the Mets

 

Nolan Arenado to the Cardinals

 

Lance Lynn to the White Sox

 

Nate Lowe to the Rangers

 

Blake Snell to the Padres

 

Jameson Taillon to the Yankees

 

Steven Matz to the Blue Jays

 

Jeff Hoffman to the Reds

 

It would be interesting to have them explain trades they got wrong and why.

[moonslav59]

Think the Mets can take on 4 players to their 40 man? I have no idea. They might have some DFA fodder. (Possibly Dominic Smith?)

 

Maybe Smith and some salary dump could come back to BOS as part of the trade.

 

BTV also accepted:

 

Duran, Nate, JD & Vaz

for

Mauricio, Ziegler, Carrasco & Smith

Edited July 22, 2022 by moonslav59

[Deja Doh]

Even though he's 7 years older, I'd rather have Judge than Soto. I think the Yankees will come strong for Soto because of his lefty bat.

[moonslav59]

Even though he's 7 years older, I'd rather have Judge than Soto. I think the Yankees will come strong for Soto because of his lefty bat.

 

If both were free agents, I'd take Soto at $450M/14 vs Judge at $225M/7.

[Larry Cook]

Bogey to st. Louis for Rhp mcgreevy?

[moonslav59]

Bogey to st. Louis for Rhp mcgreevy?

 

How about Bogey and $3M to STL for Herrera, their highly rated catching prospect?

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

If both were free agents, I'd take Soto at $450M/14 vs Judge at $225M/7.

 

I get your point seeing as how Soto is 7 years younger than Judge.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

How about Bogey and $3M to STL for Herrera, their highly rated catching prospect?

 

 

Getting anything decent is better than getting nothing.

[moonslav59]

I get your point seeing as how Soto is 7 years younger than Judge.

 

Plus, Judge might want $250/7.

[moonslav59]

Getting anything decent is better than getting nothing.

 

BTV has Herrera worth almost twice as much as that pitcher you mentioned.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

BTV has Herrera worth almost twice as much as that pitcher you mentioned.

 

I didn't mention any pitcher. That was Larry Cook.

[jad]

Getting anything decent is better than getting nothing.

 

But then, keeping Bogey and paying him market value is better than both.

[notin]

How about Bogey and $3M to STL for Herrera, their highly rated catching prospect?

 

With Molina retiring in 4 months, I doubt Herrera is all that available…

[notin]

A fair deal on BTV is Bogaerts for 22yo RHP Gordon Graceffo, a fifth rounder from Villanova with a 3.21 ERA in AA Springfield in 9 starts covering 53 IP…

[notin]

And then the Sox flip Graceffo along with Mayer, Casas and Bello for Juan Soto (which doesn’t work out on BTV. Not even close.)

[notin]

If both were free agents, I'd take Soto at $450M/14 vs Judge at $225M/7.

 

Absolutely.

 

More prime years left for Soto that might make him worth it. Judge struggled to stay healthy in his 20s. I doubt his 30s will be any better…

[notin]

Even though he's 7 years older, I'd rather have Judge than Soto. I think the Yankees will come strong for Soto because of his lefty bat.

 

I am not sure either the Sox or the Yankees can put together the best offer.

 

Baltimore probably could, but will the Nationals deal their superstar to the team that they fight with for broadcasting dollars?

[moonslav59]

But then, keeping Bogey and paying him market value is better than both.

 

Actually, trading Bogey and then re-signing him is the best of both of your worlds.

[Kimmi]

If both were free agents, I'd take Soto at $450M/14 vs Judge at $225M/7.

 

Boras is talking about $43M per year for 15 years = $645M contract for Soto. Cringe worthy, to say the least.

[moonslav59]

Boras is talking about $43M per year for 15 years = $645M contract for Soto. Cringe worthy, to say the least.

 

To be honest, I don't really pay attention to agent demands. He's not getting anywhere near $645M. Even $500M/17 is a massive reach.

 

What is Judge asking for?

[Kimmi]

To be honest, I don't really pay attention to agent demands. He's not getting anywhere near $645M. Even $500M/17 is a massive reach.

 

What is Judge asking for?

 

No doubt, just because an agent asks for something doesn't mean he'll get it. Soto wants his AAV to be one of the highest in MLB though, along with the highest total contract. Not saying he'll get $645M, but some GM will likely meet Soto's criteria on those two counts.

 

I have no idea what Judge is asking for. A crazy amount, whatever it is.

[FredLynn]

But then, keeping Bogey and paying him market value is better than both.

 

That isn't going to happen. Henry has said that he wants to get his finances in order. He hired Bloom to get that done. Bloom has experience with low budget teams (one, actually). Bogey is gone. I hope they find the money to sign Devers but from what I hear they are very far apart. My guess is that both will be gone soon.

[jad]

That isn't going to happen. Henry has said that he wants to get his finances in order. He hired Bloom to get that done. Bloom has experience with low budget teams (one, actually). Bogey is gone. I hope they find the money to sign Devers but from what I hear they are very far apart. My guess is that both will be gone soon.

 

Right. He wants to win. He wants to keep the revenue streams from the gate, tv, gear etc, i.e., he wants to keep all his fans and fan interest. He wants to make millions of dollars. But he wants to do this without paying his employees fair market value for their services. I guess all you guys supporting this are business owners or CEOs, because I find it incomprehensible that workers or customers would support this.

[JDavis76]

Right. He wants to win. He wants to keep the revenue streams from the gate, tv, gear etc, i.e., he wants to keep all his fans and fan interest. He wants to make millions of dollars. But he wants to do this without paying his employees fair market value for their services. I guess all you guys supporting this are business owners or CEOs, because I find it incomprehensible that workers or customers would support this.

 

Umm, the sox have the sixth highest payroll at $203M, what the hell are you yammering about?

[jad]

Umm, the sox have the sixth highest payroll at $203M, what the hell are you yammering about?

 

Ah yes! Sixth-best has always been the goal of Red Sox fans.

[JDavis76]

Ah yes! Sixth-best has always been the goal of Red Sox fans.

 

You missed the point completely.

 

You are saying that they don't pay competitive wages when they certainly do, and the payroll backs that up.

[moonslav59]

 

I have no idea what Judge is asking for. A crazy amount, whatever it is.

 

They both will end up getting more than either of us would suggest, but I'm just saying, I'll likely like Soto's deal more, due mostly to age and projected future vlaue.

[moonslav59]

Ah yes! Sixth-best has always been the goal of Red Sox fans.

 

We may end up below sixth in payroll by year's end.

 

Also, we may be 6th in payroll, but we're also just 4.5 games behind the 6th best record in MLB. A few weeks ago, we were 3rd or 4th best.

 

[JDavis76]

We may end up below sixth in payroll by year's end.

 

Also, we may be 6th in payroll, but we're also just 4.5 games behind the 6th best record in MLB. A few weeks ago, we were 3rd or 4th best.

 

 

And 1 game out from being in last place.....

[oldtimer]

We may end up below sixth in payroll by year's end.

 

Also, we may be 6th in payroll, but we're also just 4.5 games behind the 6th best record in MLB. A few weeks ago, we were 3rd or 4th best.

 

at less

 

Not a bad idea to look at Houston, which has a payroll of a little over $190 mil. They have a few big contracts but let Springer walk when he got too expensive. They have Verlander for one more year at less than Sale gets.

 

Putting a very competitive team on the field, with a few stars and good two way players throughout is possible, especially when you can bring up future stars from the minors.