A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[Hugh2]

Am I 100% wrong on this? I’d love to know for 100% certain. It also appears the most of draft position is gone too.

 

If this is all true, there’s almost no excuse to not at least go right up against the second threshold.

[moonslav59]

https://theathletic.com/3187914/2022/03/16/mlbs-collective-bargaining-agreement-guide-to-the-changes-in-the-2022-26-labor-deal/?amp=1

 

Good read. Thanks.

[dgalehouse]

https://theathletic.com/3187914/2022/03/16/mlbs-collective-bargaining-agreement-guide-to-the-changes-in-the-2022-26-labor-deal/?amp=1

 

Harm, that was some wild finish in Seattle on Sunday.

[harmony]

Harm, that was some wild finish in Seattle on Sunday.

Sunday I was hiking in the Canadian Rockies and lost wifi reception with the Mariners up 6-2 heading into the ninth inning. Imagine my surprise when I learned the result upon my return to civilization.

Edited September 13, 2022 by harmony

[moonslav59]

This might be our only chance to get close to .500:

 

3 v KCR

day off

2 @ CIN

 

Then, it get's tough:

3 @ NYY

4 v BAL

3 @ TOR

3 v TBR

 

I don't expect a hot streak, but it would be nice to end the season on a high note, and maybe play spoiler to the Yanks or another division foe.

[Bellhorn04]

This might be our only chance to get close to .500:

 

3 v KCR

day off

2 @ CIN

 

Then, it get's tough:

3 @ NYY

4 v BAL

3 @ TOR

3 v TBR

 

I don't expect a hot streak, but it would be nice to end the season on a high note, and maybe play spoiler to the Yanks or another division foe.

 

Wouldn't It Be Nice

[Old Red]

Plawecki DFA.

[moonslav59]

Plawecki DFA.

 

McGuire and Wong seem like they no longer need tutoring.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Plawecki DFA.

 

There is going to be an arms race for catchers with bazookas for next year's new rules. Pick-off limits will make for bigger leads, better jumps and more base-stealing attempts. And bigger bags are 4 1/2 inches closer for sliding thieves!

[moonslav59]

There is going to be an arms race for catchers with bazookas for next year's new rules. Pick-off limits will make for bigger leads, better jumps and more base-stealing attempts. And bigger bags are 4 1/2 inches closer for sliding thieves!

 

It's interesting that we traded for several players with high OBP and SB totals (Hamilton, Abreu, Rosier & Ferguson.)

 

Also, McGuire leads the league in CS% at 36%. It was 35% in 2021 and 50% in 2020. That's 37% since 2020. Wong's is 25% in just 14 SB attempts in his ML career. In the minors: 212 SB and 90 CS (30% CS%)

Edited September 18, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Minor League SB Leader Board

5. Hamilton 69 (8 CS)

9. Ferguson 61 (5)

42. Rosier 40 (5)

99. Abreu 31 (3)

120. Rafaela 28 (7)

132. Paulino 27 (5)

153. Meredith 25 (0) in just 65 games

(The top 4 were not in the Sox system in 2021.)

 

OBP Leaders (400+ PAs)

2. Kavadas .449

35. Abreu .402

40. Mayer .399

43. Bonaci .397

(The top 3 were not in the Sox system in 2021.)

 

[moonslav59]

500+ PAs

 

1. Kavadas 1.006

11. E Valdez .942

22. Rafaela .892

49. Abreu .841

50. Lugo .837

60. Paulino .827

76. Jordan .808

 

(Mayer places 55th on the list of leaders with 400+ PAs at .887

 

 

[oldtimer]

We are bound to look bad offensively with rookies getting a shot in the lineup. One would hope for some signs of life from them, but not much on that front to date. Rookie pitching is leaving a lot to be desired as well. Is the Sox development not up to par? Other than Bello, we are not seeing much.

[Hugh2]

We are bound to look bad offensively with rookies getting a shot in the lineup. One would hope for some signs of life from them, but not much on that front to date. Rookie pitching is leaving a lot to be desired as well. Is the Sox development not up to par? Other than Bello, we are not seeing much.

 

Not everyone makes their debut and is an all star right away. Sometimes the only way to tell if someone is going to be the next Pedroia or the next Middlebrooks is to just roll with them and see how they develop.

 

Also, if you recall, it’s been said for the last several years how weak the Sox system is. Well, this is what happens in a weaker system, you have less MLB guys coming thru the pipeline. That’s changing in Boston, but some of those guy won’t be ready for another year or two and as we all know…..some of them won’t pan out

[Old Red]

Not everyone makes their debut and is an all star right away. Sometimes the only way to tell if someone is going to be the next Pedroia or the next Middlebrooks is to just roll with them and see how they develop.

 

True said, and Casas is in the big spotlight right now. I don’t know if he has lots of weight on his shoulders, but he certainly has had lots of hype.

[Hugh2]

True said, and Casas is in the big spotlight right now. I don’t know if he has lots of weight on his shoulders, but he certainly has had lots of hype.

 

I don’t think Casas is the type to hit the ground running, and he still has some kinks to work out (vs. lhp) sometimes, guys have to work those out at the MLB level, sink or swim.

 

I’m a lot higher on Casas than I ever was on Duran, and I’m not worried about him, if anything THIS is the time to get some of those kinks out. I think he’s going to be a solid .800 ops guy with some .900+ years in his prime. Not the Ted Williams some here may expect but certainly better than we’ve had at the position for some time.

 

I think he’s going to be a regular staple in the this lineup come next June, we won’t even be talking about whether or not he’s ready…..or not.

[notin]

We are bound to look bad offensively with rookies getting a shot in the lineup. One would hope for some signs of life from them, but not much on that front to date. Rookie pitching is leaving a lot to be desired as well. Is the Sox development not up to par? Other than Bello, we are not seeing much.

 

Very few rookies make an immediate impact.

 

The Sox put a good number of rookies on display this year, but the only one who had 100 PA or 80 IP was Jarren Duran.

[Hugh2]

Very few rookies make an immediate impact.

 

The Sox put a good number of rookies on display this year, but the only one who had 100 PA or 80 IP was Jarren Duran.

 

Depending on how you want to define service time you could say the Sox had a bunch of “Sophomore Slumps” this year.

 

To me the most disappointing was Bobby Dalbec, I thought for sure he was destined to be a regular .800 ops guy in this lineup. I wasn’t concerned by a slow start because he always struck me as a streaky hitter but the dude had not one hot streak in him this year.

 

Sox should have kept him on the mound hahaha.

[notin]

Depending on how you want to define service time you could say the Sox had a bunch of “Sophomore Slumps” this year.

 

To me the most disappointing was Bobby Dalbec, I thought for sure he was destined to be a regular .800 ops guy in this lineup. I wasn’t concerned by a slow start because he always struck me as a streaky hitter but the dude had not one hot streak in him this year.

 

Sox should have kept him on the mound hahaha.

 

 

Dalbec was a massive disappointment to me too. I posted something somewhere to that effect on this forum…

[Hugh2]

Dalbec was a massive disappointment to me too. I posted something somewhere to that effect on this forum…

 

We think of Bogaerts power outage and Devers slumps and one has to wonder if they could have had better numbers with a longer lineup. A healthy Story, and a non regression from Dalbec would have gone a long way.

[Hugh2]

True said, and Casas is in the big spotlight right now. I don’t know if he has lots of weight on his shoulders, but he certainly has had lots of hype.

 

This is completely conjecture but he passes the “eye test” in my book. I saw him a dozen times while he has in Portland and when he steps in the batters box it looks more like he’s IN THE BATTERS box and the pitchers are stepping up to the mound to face him.

 

Will this translate to MLB success? We will have to wait until next year to have a more well informed answer, but I know we’re all rooting for him.

[Bellhorn04]

Dalbec was a massive disappointment to me too. I posted something somewhere to that effect on this forum…

 

Dalbec seems like the classic case of "holes in the swing". Or one more example that hitting major league pitching is pretty freakin' hard.

[moonslav59]

Not everyone makes their debut and is an all star right away. Sometimes the only way to tell if someone is going to be the next Pedroia or the next Middlebrooks is to just roll with them and see how they develop.

 

Also, if you recall, it’s been said for the last several years how weak the Sox system is. Well, this is what happens in a weaker system, you have less MLB guys coming thru the pipeline. That’s changing in Boston, but some of those guy won’t be ready for another year or two and as we all know…..some of them won’t pan out

 

When you look at who has come up from the farm over the last decade or more, and how well they did, it's pretty shocking to see the drop off in quantity and quality. To not link this to our drop off in ML performance is missing something vital.

 

Some carry- over homegrown players before 2004: Nomar, Nixon, B Arroyo, Daubach.

 

Note: prospects traded before reaching MLB are not listed. (This is not a complete list.)

 

2004: Youkilis

 

2005: Papelbon, Delcarmen, Shoppach, Cla Meredith

 

2006: Lester, Pedroia, David Murphy, K Gabbard

 

2007: Ellsbury, Buchholz, Brandon Moss

 

2008: Lowrie, Masterson

 

2009: Josh Reddick, D Bard

 

2010: Doubront, D Nava, R Kalish

 

2011: Iggy, K Weiland, Lavarnway

 

2012:

 

2013: Bogaerts, JBJ, Alex Wilson, Workman

 

2014: Betts, Vazquez, Barnes, Rusney Castillo, A Ranaudo

 

2015: ERod (traded for as a prospect), T Shaw, Swihart, N Ramirez

 

2016: Benintendi, Moncada, B Johnson, H Velazquez

 

2017: Devers, T-W Lin

 

2018: Walden, Poyner, Beeks

 

2019: Josh Taylor, Chavis, DHern

 

2020: Houck, Dalbec, Arauz

 

2021: Whitlock (from NYY farm via Rule 5), Duran, Crawford, Wong (traded for as a prospect)

 

2022: Casas, Downs, Winckowski (acquired as prospect via trade), Bello, Seabold, Ort

 

Remember, when a prospect is called ujp, there is usually a lag between their call-up date and when they contribute in a positive way. Look 2-4+ years past when the best players started and notice our ring years fall in this range.

[dgalehouse]

One of the dumbest things dumb managers do is to start a mediocre lefty against the Sox at Fenway. Bubic had about as much chance of success today as my aunt Tillie would have. I wonder what the thought process is with these things ?

[Nick]

Do we need to see JD anymore?

[moonslav59]

Positional Sox OPS

 

.841 3B (128 OPS+)

.836 SS (142)

.744 DH (109)

.727 2B (107)

.710 C (114)

.694 LF (92)

.669 CF (95)

.658 1B (76)

.647 RF (84)

 

By Age:

.766 Ages 25-

.731 Ages 26-30

.700 Ages 31-35

 

(Before Today.)

 

[Nick]

Positional Sox OPS

 

.841 3B (128 OPS+)

.836 SS (142)

.744 DH (109)

.727 2B (107)

.710 C (114)

.694 LF (92)

.669 CF (95)

.658 1B (76)

.647 RF (84)

 

By Age:

.766 Ages 25-

.731 Ages 26-30

.700 Ages 31-35

 

(Before Today.)

 

 

As an old timer, I think it sucks that we suck at hitting positions, 3 outfield positions and 1B.

[moonslav59]

As an old timer, I think it sucks that we suck at hitting positions, 3 outfield positions and 1B.

 

I was thinking the same thing. Our worst 4 positions are often the top 4-6 positions for offense.

[moonslav59]

I don't really see Almonte as being part of next year's team, so I wonder why he's on the 28.

[mvp 78]

Do we need to see JD anymore?

 

No, but Cora is running out the season and is going to still play vets as a sign of good faith. They need to put up numbers to earn their next contract. Not really fair to just sit them.