A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[moonslav59]

Why would the Sox get nothing back after including money to trade JD to another team. He was a 3 win player last year and the DH expanded to the whole league this offseason, which most teams thought was going to happen before it actually did.

 

I don't think he was worth $22M, so I think we'd have had to include $2-7M to get a team to just take his contract. Maybe $6M was high, but I doubt anyone would have taken him ay $22M/1. Just my opinion.

[notin]

I don't think he was worth $22M, so I think we'd have had to include $2-7M to get a team to just take his contract. Maybe $6M was high, but I doubt anyone would have taken him ay $22M/1. Just my opinion.

 

 

Nelson Cruz got 1yr $16mill. Is JD worth the 38% increase?

[moonslav59]

Nelson Cruz got 1yr $16mill. Is JD worth the 38% increase?

 

I'd say, before this year, they were both worth about the same- maybe JD more due to being younger. I think me saying he was worth $16-20M is pretty accurate. I don't think anyone would have paid him $22M/2, but I've been wrong before.

[moonslav59]

Sox bWAR Leaders (gms):

 

5.7 Bogey (138)

4.6 Devers (128)

 

2.5 Story (94)

2.1 Vaz (84)

 

1.2 Dugo (139)

1.1 Ref (50 WOW!)

0.9 McQuire (26 Double WOW!)

0.9 JD (126)

0.8 Kike (79)

 

0.6 Arroyo (79)

0.4 Pham (41)

0.2 Chang (3!!!)

0.2 Ja Davis (12)

0.1 Wong (17)

0.0 Hosmer (12)

-0.1 Cordero (84), Almonte (5) and Duran (57)

-0.2 Arauz (6)

-0.3 casas (13)

-0.4 JBJ (91)

-0.5 Dalbec (111- OUCH!), Sanchez (14)

-0.6 Downs 914)

-0.7 Shaw (7)

-1.1 Plawecki (60)

 

Pitchers

3.9 Wacha

2.7 Pivetta

2.6 Schreiber

1.7 Whitlock

1.6 Houck

 

0.9 Nate

0.6 Sawamura (a strike against bWAR)

0.4 Strahm

0.3 Hill, Bello & Danish

0.2 Diekman (strike 2) and Kelly

0.1 Crawford

0.0 Bazardo, Sale, Feliz, German

 

-0.1 P Valdez

-0.2 Familia, Ort

-0.3 Barnes, Wink

-0.4 Davis

-0.6 Seabold

-0.8 Robles

-0.9 DHern

-1.1 Brasier

 

 

[moonslav59]

15 games left and 9 wins from 82. It's not looking like we can make it, but if we do or come close, we might do some playoff spoiling for some AL East teams that have beaten our asses, all year.

 

4 @ NYY (We are 6-9 v NYY)

4 v BAL (7-8)

3 @ TOR (3-13)

3 v TBR (4-12)

 

We play 'em all.

Edited September 22, 2022 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

I am all for letting Casas getting exposure to ML pitching for the rest of 2022 but I think he may well start in AAA next season as he works on his hitting. If that is true, the Sox will need to start a player at first for some period of 2023, not named Casas, Hosmer can field but has become a weak hitter. Do they experiment with Arroyo or go out and get a solid right hand first baseman who can platoon with Casas and also DH? As Moon is frequently postulating, do they trade Casas low and just get a full time ist baseman? I am for the first alternative as Casas is still projected to become a long term answer at first base.

[moonslav59]

I am all for letting Casas getting exposure to ML pitching for the rest of 2022 but I think he may well start in AAA next season as he works on his hitting. If that is true, the Sox will need to start a player at first for some period of 2023, not named Casas, Hosmer can field but has become a weak hitter. Do they experiment with Arroyo or go out and get a solid right hand first baseman who can platoon with Casas and also DH? As Moon is frequently postulating, do they trade Casas low and just get a full time ist baseman? I am for the first alternative as Casas is still projected to become a long term answer at first base.

 

Hosmer is not really a plus defender: he's just better than Dalbec/Cordero.

 

I don't think we spend big at 1B, but since we also need a DH, maybe we go for a 1 year 1B/DH type. Maybe a guy like mancini, who can play corner OF in a pinch, and is apparently a great clubhouse guy might be a choice.

[mvp 78]

I am all for letting Casas getting exposure to ML pitching for the rest of 2022 but I think he may well start in AAA next season as he works on his hitting. If that is true, the Sox will need to start a player at first for some period of 2023, not named Casas, Hosmer can field but has become a weak hitter. Do they experiment with Arroyo or go out and get a solid right hand first baseman who can platoon with Casas and also DH? As Moon is frequently postulating, do they trade Casas low and just get a full time ist baseman? I am for the first alternative as Casas is still projected to become a long term answer at first base.

 

He's playing winter ball in the DR this offseason. I think he just needs reps. He was put through the ringer last season with the Olympics nonsense. This year he had the injuries. If he gets consistent playing time, he should be fine. I'd also be worried about him developing bad habits at the WOO launching pad if he was there too long.

 

In AAA:

863 OPS

389 OBP

[notin]

I am all for letting Casas getting exposure to ML pitching for the rest of 2022 but I think he may well start in AAA next season as he works on his hitting. If that is true, the Sox will need to start a player at first for some period of 2023, not named Casas, Hosmer can field but has become a weak hitter. Do they experiment with Arroyo or go out and get a solid right hand first baseman who can platoon with Casas and also DH? As Moon is frequently postulating, do they trade Casas low and just get a full time ist baseman? I am for the first alternative as Casas is still projected to become a long term answer at first base.

 

If Casas starts the year in WOO, the Sox will just use the perennially unexciting Hosmer. He serves the purpose of 1) being a serviceable 1b while 2) not costing the team any money.

 

But I do find it hard to believe the Sox will hold both through the Rule 5 draft and let them take up two valuable roster spots

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He's playing winter ball in the DR this offseason. I think he just needs reps. He was put through the ringer last season with the Olympics nonsense. This year he had the injuries. If he gets consistent playing time, he should be fine. I'd also be worried about him developing bad habits at the WOO launching pad if he was there too long.

 

In AAA:

863 OPS

389 OBP

 

Meanwhile, Tampa calls up Jonathan Aranda to play first base from Triple A, where he hit 18 HRs, 85 RBI, .318 BA, .915 OPS. A few differences: Aranda also plays second base and third base, and is 24 years old. When he was 22, like Casas is now, Aranda hit 3 homers in 40 games in Mexico.

[Hugh2]

Casas and Hosmer are good enough......good enough to where you want to be spending your money on RF/SS/C starting pitching and relief pitching. WHen you have many holes to fill.....Casas/Hosmer is good enough. Also, sometimes the only way to hit MLB pithing is to hit MLB pitching.

 

Look at Dalbec, he's been MASHING the ball at the AAA level. If we didn't know any better we would think he needs to be in the majors, he has nothing to learn at the minor league level, it's MLB pitching that he has had a hard time adjusting too and he might not ever...that doesn't mean Casas won't but at a certain point sometimes you just have to let guys sink or swim. Sometimes they are never able to put it together (think MIddlebrooks) and at other times it's all worth it (think Pedroia).

 

I'm not worried one bit about Casas.

[Hugh2]

Personally, I want to see the Sox bring in someone like Soler or Garcia from the Marlins and buy us some pitching by taking on their salary. I'll be beating this drum all offseason folks.

[mvp 78]

Personally, I want to see the Sox bring in someone like Soler or Garcia from the Marlins and buy us some pitching by taking on their salary. I'll be beating this drum all offseason folks.

 

You might need to tune that drum a little because it sounds off to me.

[mvp 78]

Casas and Hosmer are good enough......good enough to where you want to be spending your money on RF/SS/C starting pitching and relief pitching. WHen you have many holes to fill.....Casas/Hosmer is good enough. Also, sometimes the only way to hit MLB pithing is to hit MLB pitching.

 

Look at Dalbec, he's been MASHING the ball at the AAA level. If we didn't know any better we would think he needs to be in the majors, he has nothing to learn at the minor league level, it's MLB pitching that he has had a hard time adjusting too and he might not ever...that doesn't mean Casas won't but at a certain point sometimes you just have to let guys sink or swim. Sometimes they are never able to put it together (think MIddlebrooks) and at other times it's all worth it (think Pedroia).

 

I'm not worried one bit about Casas.

 

Dalbec had a 765 OPS vs LHP. Maybe he's good enough to be a platoon bat at 1b? Give him other AB's in the OF/3B here and there as needed?

[moonslav59]

Personally, I want to see the Sox bring in someone like Soler or Garcia from the Marlins and buy us some pitching by taking on their salary. I'll be beating this drum all offseason folks.

 

I tried to suggest a trade on BTV bringing us Garcia and Lopez, but it was not accepted, because the Marlins did not get a good enough player in return.

 

I think it was something like Rafaela or Yorke for Lopez and Garcia plus some cash.

[moonslav59]

Dalbec had a 765 OPS vs LHP. Maybe he's good enough to be a platoon bat at 1b? Give him other AB's in the OF/3B here and there as needed?

 

Hosmer had reverse splits, this year, but has been near .750 vs RHPs for a few years and was way better before that.

 

A .750 OPS from 1B is not ideal, but it's much better than the .650 OPS we had, this year.

 

If Casas struggles, we may use these two at 1B, and if he doesn't, we may use those two at DH, where we have a .753 OPS at DH, now..

[notin]

I tried to suggest a trade on BTV bringing us Garcia and Lopez, but it was not accepted, because the Marlins did not get a good enough player in return.

 

I think it was something like Rafaela or Yorke for Lopez and Garcia plus some cash.

 

Rafaela plus Wikkelman for Luzardo. Yeah or nay??

[moonslav59]

You might need to tune that drum a little because it sounds off to me.

 

If this gets us Lopez without trading Casas or Mayer, maybe the drum is finely tuned.

[mvp 78]

I tried to suggest a trade on BTV bringing us Garcia and Lopez, but it was not accepted, because the Marlins did not get a good enough player in return.

 

I think it was something like Rafaela or Yorke for Lopez and Garcia plus some cash.

 

Ok, so we are so very concerned about re-signing guys like Bogey and Devers and we don't want to go over the luxury tax buuuuuuuuuut... let's just dump a ton of cash on a player like Avisail Garcia for 3 more years. What? How does that make any sense? Why are we clogging our payroll at all if you guys are concerned about payroll flexibility and staying under the cap?

[moonslav59]

Rafaela plus Wikkelman for Luzardo...

 

I think the Marlins take that deal, but I'm not sure I trust Lazardo.

 

Lopez has a 3 year run: Lazardo less than 1.

[moonslav59]

Ok, so we are so very concerned about re-signing guys like Bogey and Devers and we don't want to go over the luxury tax buuuuuuuuuut... let's just dump a ton of cash on a player like Avisail Garcia for 3 more years. What? How does that make any sense? Why are we clogging our payroll at all if you guys are concerned about payroll flexibility and staying under the cap?

 

Because Garcia costs way less than Verlander, and without an ace, we are toast. (Plus, I had the Marlins paying part of Garcia's contract.)

[notin]

I think the Marlins take that deal, but I'm not sure I trust Lazardo.

 

Lopez has a 3 year run: Lazardo less than 1.

 

Luzardo has 4 years of control left. Lopez has two.

[notin]

Because Garcia costs way less than Verlander, and without an ace, we are toast. (Plus, I had the Marlins paying part of Garcia's contract.)

 

I like Pablo Garcia, but if you are looking for Verlander, he might not be the guy...

[mvp 78]

Because Garcia costs way less than Verlander, and without an ace, we are toast. (Plus, I had the Marlins paying part of Garcia's contract.)

 

But you still need to factor in Garcia's $36M and I don't think a team like the Marlins would be willing to eat much salary to begin with.

[notin]

But you still need to factor in Garcia's $36M and I don't think a team like the Marlins would be willing to eat much salary to begin with.

 

Sox have enough s***** contracts on the bench right now. Avisail Garcia is another one who just can't stay on the field. This situation is not likely to improve for ages 32-34.

 

If the Sox are going to take on a bad contract, which I am ok with, can it be someone a but healthier?

[moonslav59]

But you still need to factor in Garcia's $36M and I don't think a team like the Marlins would be willing to eat much salary to begin with.

 

I think they'd pay some.

 

If we took on Garcia's full $13.25M x 3 lux tax cost, or Soler's $12M x 2 lux cost plus the cost of Lopez's arb, it might still be less than signing the top FA SP'er on this winter's market, and we fill two holes not one. (SP & DH/OF)

 

Here are some key BTV values:

40.4 Rogers

35.3 Lopez

22.1 Luzardo

15.9 Garrett

9.0 Berti

-28.5 Garcia

-20.1 Soler

 

Would you rather give ...

 

Casas for Lopez

 

or

 

Wikelman for Lopez and Garcia

 

55.4 Mayer

39.7 Casas

31.5 Bello

21.3 Houck

15.1 Rafaela

12.1 Yorke

11.3 Verdugo

8.7 Bleis

8.7 Romero

6.6 Wikleman

[moonslav59]

Sox have enough s***** contracts on the bench right now. Avisail Garcia is another one who just can't stay on the field. This situation is not likely to improve for ages 32-34.

 

If the Sox are going to take on a bad contract, which I am ok with, can it be someone a but healthier?

 

Agreed, and I'm just throwing this type of trade out there as a way to fill 2 slots with the cost of one.

 

I do think Garcia may bounce back and would be less likely to get hurt as a DH and back-up OF'er.

[notin]

Agreed, and I'm just throwing this type of trade out there as a way to fill 2 slots with the cost of one.

 

I do think Garcia may bounce back and would be less likely to get hurt as a DH and back-up OF'er.

 

I also don't like the idea of taking on 3 years of Garcia to get 2 years of Lopez...

[moonslav59]

I also don't like the idea of taking on 3 years of Garcia to get 2 years of Lopez...

 

Would you do this accepted trade?

 

Rafaela, Yorke, Wikelman & Duran

for

Lopez, Luzardo, Berti & Garcia

[mvp 78]

Would you do this accepted trade?

 

Rafaela, Yorke, Wikelman & Duran

for

Lopez, Luzardo, Berti & Garcia

 

To get 2 starting pitchers? Ok, but Garcia is going to be getting a lot of playing time.