A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[moonslav59]

Definitely. Just 5 freaking games. And he's 22.

 

All the write-ups say he has a ton of potential--he can hit, especially dingers, has soft hands at 1b, etc. Slow runner, but smart. DD and crew picked him the first round of 2018 and gave him a $2.6M bonus, which he has more than lived up to so far.

 

The one concern would be his weight. At 6'4" he is not the tallest guy on the 28 man roster, but at 252 lbs he is certainly the heaviest--and the youngest.

 

His power was talked up a lot, but he hasn't really shown immense power, yet. He's only 22, so there is time for that.

 

Minors: 46 HRs in 1210 PAs

119 XBHs shows more power than the HR number.

 

It's way too early to know enough. We;ve been fooled by 1B-hyped prospects too many times to get all gah-gah. Casas does seem different from the others.

 

Every player is unique, but here are some minor league numbers:

 

.269 46 181 (1210 PA) 119 XBH .374/.485/.858 Casas 261Ks

.263 80 259 (1625 PA) 170 XBH .363/.506/.869 Dalbec 482 Ks

.265 106 573 (4591PA) 381 XBH .365/.420/.785 Lars Abnd 955 Ks

 

[notin]

Casas has had the most hype. The Winkin, and Seabold types not so much, and yes I have seen enough of Duran, and Franchy.

 

Really it is too early to give up on Duran, but his age plus lack of success in any aspect of the game is extremely discouraging.

 

Franchy isn’t a rookie, and he also isn’t a first baseman. And he probably isn’t an MLB starter. The Sox haven’t shown all that much faith in him either. But if he’s a fourth OF, that’s not the worst thing.

 

I’m surprised how many have written off Winckowski and Crawford, considering the two have combined for about 150 IP this year. They’ve both given reasons to be discouraged as well as reasons to be encouraged….

[oldtimer]

Really it is too early to give up on Duran, but his age plus lack of success in any aspect of the game is extremely discouraging.

 

Franchy isn’t a rookie, and he also isn’t a first baseman. And he probably isn’t an MLB starter. The Sox haven’t shown all that much faith in him either. But if he’s a fourth OF, that’s not the worst thing.

 

I’m surprised how many have written off Winckowski and Crawford, considering the two have combined for about 150 IP this year. They’ve both given reasons to be discouraged as well as reasons to be encouraged….

 

Casas is a young rookie and there is uncertainty as to his ability to establish himself as a ML first baseman. It is too early to tell much but there is room to hope he will be a future FT player for the Sox. My thought for next season is to pick up a right hand ML player with 1st base credentials and who can also be used as a DH. That way we can have insurance with Casas and also solve an issue with who will be the next DH. The current in house candidate is Arroyo but the thought of getting Cron or Mancini would give us a solution to obtaining some right hand power that seems to be missing from the current Sox lineup.

[notin]

Casas is a young rookie and there is uncertainty as to his ability to establish himself as a ML first baseman. It is too early to tell much but there is room to hope he will be a future FT player for the Sox. My thought for next season is to pick up a right hand ML player with 1st base credentials and who can also be used as a DH. That way we can have insurance with Casas and also solve an issue with who will be the next DH. The current in house candidate is Arroyo but the thought of getting Cron or Mancini would give us a solution to obtaining some right hand power that seems to be missing from the current Sox lineup.

 

While not right-handed (which really shouldn’t matter here), they do still have Hosmer, who can be in the DH/1b mix.

 

If they sign someone else to be the primary DH - Mancini? Bell? Whoever? - that player doesn’t need to play 1b (despite my only naming players who do)…

[moonslav59]

While not right-handed (which really shouldn’t matter here), they do still have Hosmer, who can be in the DH/1b mix.

 

If they sign someone else to be the primary DH - Mancini? Bell? Whoever? - that player doesn’t need to play 1b (despite my only naming players who do)…

 

I think a RF/DH type makes more sense, but that usually means they aren't good on D. We'd end up trading him for the next JBJ. LOL.

 

If we didn't already have 3 LF'ers, a LF/DH type makes the most sense for a Boston DH. The problem is, none of our 3 are good enough hitters to DH, except maybe Dugo or Pham on a platoon.

 

Platooning the DH also presents problems, if all of them are below average fielders. Candidates for a seemingly weak 2023 DH platoon might be:

 

R

Pham (LF)

Arroyo (IF)

Refsnyder (OF)

Wong ©

Dalbec (1B/3B)

 

L

Dugo (LF/RF)

Casas (1B)

Enmanuel Valdez (2B)

Hosmer (1B)

Cordero (LF)

 

Not too exciting, and choosing 2-3 from this list clogs up the bench with poor fielders, except maybe Arroyo- who can't stay healthy. It looks too problematic. Signing a RF'er rather than RF/DH, 1B/DH or LF/DH seems like a better idea.

[moonslav59]

Updated Sox OPS

.883 Devers

.859 Bogey

.854 Refsnyder

.824 McGuire (.627 overall)

.776 JD

.759 Vaz (.729 overall)

.756 Pham (.713 overall)

.752 Arroyo

.744 Dugo

.743 Story

.697 Cordero

.648 Duran

.646 Kike

.644 Dalbec

.581 Plawecki

.578 JBJ (.572 overall)

 

Less than 50 PAs

1.000 Almonte

.782 Ja Davis

.725 Wong

.611 Hosmer

.516 Casas

.427 Downs

.322 Sanchez

.000 Shaw & Arauz

 

9 guys over .743 is probably more than the vast majority of teams.

Edited September 11, 2022 by moonslav59

[Nick]

Kike was promised by Bloom that the team will be "way better".

 

Not to be a jerk, but having Kike back is NOT way better. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad he's back.

 

Suppose we have Pham, Kike and Verdugo in the OF.

 

Suppose we extend Xander and return Devers, Xander, Story and Casas in the infield.

 

At this point, the team is NOT WAY BETTER.

 

What does Bloom need to do TO MAKE THIS TEAM WAY BETTER?

 

BLOOM SUPPOSEDLY SAID IT ACCORDING TO KIKE.

 

Signing Judge as an example is one step in making the team way better.

 

I have supported Bloom. I'm going to hold him to his words. Otherwise, he's a f***ing liar.

Edited September 11, 2022 by Nick

[illinoisredsox]

Kike was promised by Bloom that the team will be "way better".

 

Not to be a jerk, but having Kike back is NOT way better. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad he's back.

 

Suppose we have Pham, Kike and Verdugo in the OF.

 

Suppose we extend Xander and return Devers, Xander, Story and Casas in the infield.

 

At this point, the team is NOT WAY BETTER.

 

What does Bloom need to do TO MAKE THIS TEAM WAY BETTER?

 

WAY BETTER?

 

Pitching, both starting and bullpen. It’s also the most difficult to fix, especially starting pitching. And from what I’ve heard, the FA starters are not all that fantastic coming up this off-season. Eovaldi is in the top 4 of who’s available.

 

Judge isn’t coming here. It’ll either be back to the Yankees or home to San Francisco.

[Bellhorn04]

Kike was promised by Bloom that the team will be "way better".

 

Not to be a jerk, but having Kike back is NOT way better. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad he's back.

 

Suppose we have Pham, Kike and Verdugo in the OF.

 

Suppose we extend Xander and return Devers, Xander, Story and Casas in the infield.

 

At this point, the team is NOT WAY BETTER.

 

What does Bloom need to do TO MAKE THIS TEAM WAY BETTER?

 

BLOOM SUPPOSEDLY SAID IT ACCORDING TO KIKE.

 

Signing Judge as an example is one step in making the team way better.

 

I have supported Bloom. I'm going to hold him to his words. Otherwise, he's a f***ing liar.

 

I'm not trying to be a jerk either, but we could sign Judge to a 300 million contract, and he could get injured (he's been injured plenty in the past), and the contract could be another albatross.

 

As for Kike, I'm not really sure he should have repeated that. Furthermore, I think that coming off an injury-plagued season with bad offensive numbers, $10 million alone should have been enough to convince him to stay.

 

Having gotten that snark out of my system, all I can say about Bloom and 2023 is that my expectations are very high too.

 

The key to improvement will be mostly pitching.

[notin]

Kike was promised by Bloom that the team will be "way better".

 

Not to be a jerk, but having Kike back is NOT way better. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad he's back.

 

Suppose we have Pham, Kike and Verdugo in the OF.

 

Suppose we extend Xander and return Devers, Xander, Story and Casas in the infield.

 

At this point, the team is NOT WAY BETTER.

 

What does Bloom need to do TO MAKE THIS TEAM WAY BETTER?

 

BLOOM SUPPOSEDLY SAID IT ACCORDING TO KIKE.

 

Signing Judge as an example is one step in making the team way better.

 

I have supported Bloom. I'm going to hold him to his words. Otherwise, he's a f***ing liar.

 

 

The entire point Kike is making us Bloom is promising to be very active this off-season.

 

He’s also not even allowed to talk about signing Judge right now, as that would be tampering. He can only talk to Sox players.

 

I think we need to at least wait until March to call him a liar…

[notin]

I'm not trying to be a jerk either, but we could sign Judge to a 300 million contract, and he could get injured (he's been injured plenty in the past), and the contract could be another albatross.

 

As for Kike, I'm not really sure he should have repeated that. Furthermore, I think that coming off an injury-plagued season with bad offensive numbers, $10 million alone should have been enough to convince him to stay.

 

Having gotten that snark out of my system, all I can say about Bloom and 2023 is that my expectations are very high too.

 

The key to improvement will be mostly pitching.

 

 

My thoughts are about Judge like the plague.

 

I’d focus on a few from the set of Nimmo, Bogaerts, Correa, Swanson, Fulmer, R Montero, Treinen, E Diaz (assuming he’s available), Bell, Mancini, Wong, Frazier, and a few others I have yet to form opinions about…

[notin]

My thoughts are avoid Judge like the plague.

 

I’d focus on a few from the set of Nimmo, Bogaerts, Correa, Swanson, Fulmer, R Montero, Treinen, E Diaz (assuming he’s available), Bell, Mancini, Wong, Frazier, and a few others I have yet to form opinions about…

 

 

And by “about Judge like the plague” I mean avoid him. He’s the Mother of All Albatross Contracts waiting to happen.

 

Also I left Wacha off my list. He’s a must…

[Bellhorn04]

My thoughts are about Judge like the plague.

 

I’d focus on a few from the set of Nimmo, Bogaerts, Correa, Swanson, Fulmer, R Montero, Treinen, E Diaz (assuming he’s available), Bell, Mancini, Wong, Frazier, and a few others I have yet to form opinions about…

 

It's not a knock on Judge, every team would want to have him if they could truly afford it.

 

We have too many other "fish to fry".

[notin]

It's not a knock on Judge, every team would want to have him if they could truly afford it.

 

We have too many other "fish to fry".

 

That he turned down 7 years $30mill+ AAV and has had an injury-plagued decade on his 20s speaks very, very badly for his future…

[Bellhorn04]

That he turned down 7 years $30mill+ AAV and has had an injury-plagued decade on his 20s speaks very, very badly for his future…

 

And that the Yankees made their offer public was kind of interesting.

[notin]

And that the Yankees made their offer public was kind of interesting.

 

Now the problem they have is, with the season he’s having, how can do they afford to let him go?

[Bellhorn04]

Now the problem they have is, with the season he’s having, how can do they afford to let him go?

 

I imagine it has been giving Hal and Brian a headache or two.

[notin]

I imagine it has been giving Hal and Brian a headache or two.

 

I’ll make the least bold prediction on this subject: Judge will play in New York next season.

 

I’m not going to specify which team…

[Bellhorn04]

I’ll make the least bold prediction on this subject: Judge will play in New York next season.

 

I’m not going to specify which team…

 

Some grumpy Yankee fans think West Coast teams are also in the picture.

[notin]

Some grumpy Yankee fans think West Coast teams are also in the picture.

 

I think Cohen wants him as a headline-stealing Met. And he has shown he’ll pay for anything…

[Nick]

The entire point Kike is making us Bloom is promising to be very active this off-season.

 

He’s also not even allowed to talk about signing Judge right now, as that would be tampering. He can only talk to Sox players.

 

I think we need to at least wait until March to call him a liar…

 

I'll give him until April 1st.

 

I just wanted to make a point. He's not a liar, obviously.

[Nick]

My point is what starting pitchers does he need to add in order to make us "way better". Our offense is fine by just bring back Xander.

 

Any thoughts?

[Bellhorn04]

My point is what starting pitchers does he need to add in order to make us "way better". Our offense is fine by just bring back Xander.

 

Any thoughts?

 

Keep Wacha, sign Syndergaard and at least two relievers, and pray like hell Sale comes back?

 

Just a guess I'm throwing out there.

[notin]

My point is what starting pitchers does he need to add in order to make us "way better". Our offense is fine by just bring back Xander.

 

Any thoughts?

 

Free agency only offers a few tempting bullpen arms.

 

If you’re looking to add a starter, the best place to start is Miami, who has said Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez are untouchable, but is willing to listen on Pablo Lopez, Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers, Braxton Garrett Jesus Luzardo, and Sixto Sanchez.

 

BTV says Ceddane Rafaela for Cabrera is a fair trade. But supposedly their deadline prices for Lopez were “outrageous”, so this might get costly.

 

Or maybe Rafaela for Sanchez is more realistic, but only if Sanchez can get and hopefully stay healthy….

[Bellhorn04]

Utilizing some of the prospect capital to trade for a starter does make a lot of sense.

[notin]

I'll give him until April 1st.

 

I just wanted to make a point. He's not a liar, obviously.

 

I’my saying he not a liar. I’m just saying on some statements it’s a bit early to make that call…

[moonslav59]

Kike was promised by Bloom that the team will be "way better".

 

Not to be a jerk, but having Kike back is NOT way better. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad he's back.

 

Suppose we have Pham, Kike and Verdugo in the OF.

 

Suppose we extend Xander and return Devers, Xander, Story and Casas in the infield.

 

At this point, the team is NOT WAY BETTER.

 

What does Bloom need to do TO MAKE THIS TEAM WAY BETTER?

 

BLOOM SUPPOSEDLY SAID IT ACCORDING TO KIKE.

 

Signing Judge as an example is one step in making the team way better.

 

I have supported Bloom. I'm going to hold him to his words. Otherwise, he's a f***ing liar.

 

A healthy Kike makes the team better. Let's give Bloom and apparently JH's open wallet a chance.

[notin]

Utilizing some of the prospect capital to trade for a starter does make a lot of sense.

 

Just make a list of every prospect that you think should be untouchable, and then decide which of them to trade…

[moonslav59]

Keep Wacha, sign Syndergaard and at least two relievers, and pray like hell Sale comes back?

 

Just a guess I'm throwing out there.

 

I can't get on board with this. We need a durable horse in the rotation, and someone better than Pivetta. Syndergaard only checks one of those boxes.

 

Over 25 starts twice in his career (2016 & 2019)

Over 22 starts 5 times in 8 years.

24 starts in his last 3 years with a 4.17 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.

 

I really think we need to trade for an ace. I know it sucks parting with top prospects, and Bloom might need to be forced to do it, but I don't see any FA pitcher that wows me.

 

[notin]

Keep Wacha, sign Syndergaard and at least two relievers, and pray like hell Sale comes back?

 

Just a guess I'm throwing out there.

 

 

Mixed emotions on Syndergaard.

 

If he can pitch like 2018-2019 Syndergaard or better yet 2016 - he would be great. But he’s been average to below since for a variety of reasons and he’s already taken a one year “show me” contract. With the Syndergaarden Cop, the shorter the deal the better. And that makes him a tough sign, because someone else will always pay more for his name…