A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[Old Red]

I'd be fine waiting it our for all our prospects to mature. Look what the 2011 draft class (and IFA signings around then) did for us.

 

I just don't think Sox Nation can handle another down year, as we wait it out.

 

I think we will make one big splash trade of prospects for a young, controllable star.

Not only no, but hell no that The Nation would handle another year like this, nor should they. A completely different philosophies than yours. No years should have to be taken off as I see it, and there is no guarantees that the prospects will mature into anything good, and that includes Casas, and then what do you do outside of firing Bloom.

[moonslav59]

Not only no, but hell no that The Nation would handle another year like this, nor should they. A completely different philosophies than yours. No years should have to be taken off as I see it, and there is no guarantees that the prospects will mature into anything good, and that includes Casas, and then what do you do outside of firing Bloom.

 

There was no guarantee on Devers, Bogey, Betts, JBJ, either.

 

It's awfully hard to win a ring with no top homegrown talent and a somewhat restrictive budget.

 

Like I said, I'm fine with making a big splash prospect trade. I just don't want to empty the farm for the here and now. We all should all see that that is a big part of what got us here in the first place.

[Hugh2]

I'd be fine waiting it our for all our prospects to mature. Look what the 2011 draft class (and IFA signings around then) did for us.

 

I just don't think Sox Nation can handle another down year, as we wait it out.

 

I think we will make one big splash trade of prospects for a young, controllable star.

 

I want too, but I don't think it will either. And personally, I don't want it to be contingent on a guy who plays into our plans the next few years. Rafaella and Casas to me are almost as untradable as Mayer, who I would trade for the right guy. A lot of value is still tied up in the Sox minor league system, the closer those guys get to the MLB the more value they hold. Next year might be a better year to trade for an ACE, also with such a weak FA class the market for trading for a starter might also be higher as other teams looking to acquire pitching look to the trade market.

 

I'm not against it, but there's an argument either way and I'm not sure I see Bloom going that route. But I could be wrong here.

[Old Red]

There was no guarantee on Devers, Bogey, Betts, JBJ, either.

 

It's awfully hard to win a ring with no top homegrown talent and a somewhat restrictive budget.

 

Like I said, I'm fine with making a big splash prospect trade. I just don't want to empty the farm for the here and now. We all should all see that that is a big part of what got us here in the first place.

How would the prospects that DD traded have made the Sox a better team right now? And also the stretch that the farm got emptied, and the budget should be so restricted now.

[Hugh2]

How would the prospects that DD traded have made the Sox a better team right now? And also the stretch that the farm got emptied, and the budget should be so restricted now.

 

Well that's the problem. It's the easiest thing to evaluate a trade in hindsight. Some prospects bust, that's why the old saying "a bird in hand is worth two in the bush" is very relevant when it comes to trades in involving prospects.

 

But in hindsight the two in bush end up both becoming more valuable than the one in hand, or none of them at all. We easily could have traded Devers and Benintendi instead of Moncada and Kopech for Sale. It's just the way things work out.

[Old Red]

Yu Chang claimed off waivers from the Rays, which will be Chang’s 4th team this year. DFA J Davis.

[moonslav59]

How would the prospects that DD traded have made the Sox a better team right now? And also the stretch that the farm got emptied, and the budget should be so restricted now.

 

That class did not perform like expected, but that doesn't mean this one is the same.

 

That being said, I wish we had Kopech, Margot, Moncada (when healthy) and maybe a couple others I can't think of.

 

The budget might still be near the same. The only difference is we lose so much salary, this winter, it will seem like we are spending much more. (We have some good shoes to fill, too.)

[mvp 78]

Probably a lot cheaper, because he’s probably not worth it. Velocity is gone so he’s probably not worth, certainly he isn’t worth $21 million. But would you take 5 million dollar flier on him? Maybe an incentive laden deal? That, perhaps might be worth exploring.

 

$5M on Noah. For sure. Incentive laden where he earns future years and $$$? Sure.

 

He's probably worth at least 10AAV no matter what. He's just not in the 20AAV range anymore.

[moonslav59]

Yu Chang claimed off waivers from the Rays, which will be Chang’s 4th team this year. DFA J Davis.

 

He was already DFA'd.

[moonslav59]

I want too, but I don't think it will either. And personally, I don't want it to be contingent on a guy who plays into our plans the next few years. Rafaella and Casas to me are almost as untradable as Mayer, who I would trade for the right guy. A lot of value is still tied up in the Sox minor league system, the closer those guys get to the MLB the more value they hold. Next year might be a better year to trade for an ACE, also with such a weak FA class the market for trading for a starter might also be higher as other teams looking to acquire pitching look to the trade market.

 

I'm not against it, but there's an argument either way and I'm not sure I see Bloom going that route. But I could be wrong here.

 

I think Bloom might be pushed into trading a prospect or two.

 

I'd really like to keep Mayer, Bello, Bleis and Rafaela, if possible. I like Casas, a lot, but if he could get us an ace, I'd do it.

 

I know trading Yorke when his stock has dipped a little may not be a great idea, but I have him behind the 5 I just listed.

 

We can't get an ace by trading 3 from Mata, Walter, Paulino and Wikelman, IMO.

[mvp 78]

At this point, does it matter who is DFA'd anymore?

 

Brasier

Familia

Plawecki

Downs

[moonslav59]

At this point, does it matter who is DFA'd anymore?

 

Brasier

Familia

Plawecki

Downs

 

Probably the next 3-4 might not be missed either.

[Old Red]

That class did not perform like expected, but that doesn't mean this one is the same.

 

That being said, I wish we had Kopech, Margot, Moncada (when healthy) and maybe a couple others I can't think of.

 

The budget might still be near the same. The only difference is we lose so much salary, this winter, it will seem like we are spending much more. (We have some good shoes to fill, too.)

 

Sale, and Kimbrel to me was the right move at the time, and I’d do it all over again. The worst move was .extending Sale

[moonslav59]

Sale, and Kimbrel to me was the right move at the time, and I’d do it all over again. The worst move was .extending Sale

 

I loved the Sale trade. I have no beef with DD, at all.

 

We went all in, and it was great. Now, we pay the price.

[Old Red]

I loved the Sale trade. I have no beef with DD, at all.

 

We went all in, and it was great. Now, we pay the price.

 

And not much bang for the Buck.

[moonslav59]

Sale, and Kimbrel to me was the right move at the time, and I’d do it all over again. The worst move was .extending Sale

 

I thought we overpaid for Kimbrel, at the time, because he was making close to FA salary, but soon after the trade, the cost of good closers went through the roof. It was a good move, but let's not pretend Margot could not be helping the team this year. He's 10 times better than JBJ.

 

I'm fine with trading prospects. I started my "Chris Freakin' Sale" thing the day of the trade. I just don't want to empty the farm to win in 2023. Moderation is the key.

 

When Theo left the Sox, he spoke of how he got away from that balance.

[moonslav59]

And not much bang for the Buck.

 

Sale did great for us. The trade worked well.

 

The extension has not.

[moonslav59]

Let’s help knock the Yanks out of first place!

[oldtimer]

I thought we overpaid for Kimbrel, at the time, because he was making close to FA salary, but soon after the trade, the cost of good closers went through the roof. It was a good move, but let's not pretend Margot could not be helping the team this year. He's 10 times better than JBJ.

 

I'm fine with trading prospects. I started my "Chris Freakin' Sale" thing the day of the trade. I just don't want to empty the farm to win in 2023. Moderation is the key.

 

When Theo left the Sox, he spoke of how he got away from that balance.

 

You have been putting up strawman trades which include many of our top prospects To me those trades seem to indicate you would trade away such people as Casas, Mayer, Yorke and others. Your statement is that we would have to give good to get good in return, which is of course true but it also would deplete the minors of our best prospects. You seem to be taking both positions at once.

[notin]

Sale, and Kimbrel to me was the right move at the time, and I’d do it all over again. The worst move was .extending Sale

 

I want a big fan of the Kimbrel trade, loved the Sale trade, but the two moves I loathed the most were the Price signing and Sale extension.

 

Well, the Panda contract deserves mention, but that was a guy were not talking about right now…

[moonslav59]

You have been putting up strawman trades which include many of our top prospects To me those trades seem to indicate you would trade away such people as Casas, Mayer, Yorke and others. Your statement is that we would have to give good to get good in return, which is of course true but it also would deplete the minors of our best prospects. You seem to be taking both positions at once.

 

I've suggested the type of trades that might be the only way we can get an ace without overpaying an aging FA.

 

I rarely include Mayer, Bleis or Bello.

 

I'm not "for" many of the trades I suggest, and I'm certainly not for making 2-3 trades of the trades I mention or depleting the farm. I'm for one "splash trade" that might involve Casas or two from Yorke, Rafaela, Mata, Walter, Paulino or Wikelman. I don't think we get an ace without doing so. Show me a trade without the top 5-6 that gets us an ace, and I'm on board.

 

I wouldn't mind two trades that don't include Casas, Mayer, Rafaela, Bleis or Bello, but I doubt we can get an ace without one of these guys.

 

I thought I have been clear about my wishes. I am never for emptying the farm, but I'm okay with a trade or two, here and there, when needed. I'd prefer to wait until the time seems "more right," but I get the feeling Sox management will try hard to make 2023 more than just pretty good on paper. I'd prefer we not spend huge and then force a reset in a year or two.

 

If JH wants to commit to spending big for several years in a row, I'd be more than just happy to not trade any major prospects, at all. I just don't see that happening, do you?

[Hugh2]

Given Blooms payroll flexibility he could take on payroll to bring in a high caliber arm at low cost without any top prospects involved.

 

E.G. someone give Miami a call and offer to take Soler/Garcia. Casas, Mayer, Bleis, Bello, Yorke, and Rafaela saved.

[Hugh2]

I've suggested the type of trades that might be the only way we can get an ace without overpaying an aging FA.

 

I rarely include Mayer, Bleis or Bello.

 

I'm not "for" many of the trades I suggest, and I'm certainly not for making 2-3 trades of the trades I mention or depleting the farm. I'm for one "splash trade" that might involve Casas or two from Yorke, Rafaela, Mata, Walter, Paulino or Wikelman. I don't think we get an ace without doing so. Show me a trade without the top 5-6 that gets us an ace, and I'm on board.

 

I wouldn't mind two trades that don't include Casas, Mayer, Rafaela, Bleis or Bello, but I doubt we can get an ace without one of these guys.

 

I thought I have been clear about my wishes. I am never for emptying the farm, but I'm okay with a trade or two, here and there, when needed. I'd prefer to wait until the time seems "more right," but I get the feeling Sox management will try hard to make 2023 more than just pretty good on paper. I'd prefer we not spend huge and then force a reset in a year or two.

 

If JH wants to commit to spending big for several years in a row, I'd be more than just happy to not trade any major prospects, at all. I just don't see that happening, do you?

 

I think we can easily assume John Henry is going to mandate Bloom gets under the cap this year, and if he doesn’t he has to get under next year.

[notin]

I think we can easily assume John Henry is going to mandate Bloom gets under the cap this year, and if he doesn’t he has to get under next year.

 

That would certainly limit spending. Although I think the Sox could spend $110mill in AAV and still be under the limit. (Assuming Bogaerts opts out.)

[Hugh2]

That would certainly limit spending. Although I think the Sox could spend $110mill in AAV and still be under the limit. (Assuming Bogaerts opts out.)

 

I was having this discussion on another forum and my opinion was changed on the matter. The tax on the overage is only the overage. So the Sox can spend another 20 million up to the next threshold ($253 million) That's $20 million over the cap and since it's their second consecutive year over they will be taxed at 30% That's 6 million dollars. $6 million dollars isn't scaring off John Henry, what's scaring him off is losing out on the revenue sharing for staying 3 years over. If that was this year, he'd be losing out on $318 million dollars. Ok that's not coming this year but it's coming next year if they stay over.

 

$6 million is peanuts, hundreds of millions are not. So, the reality is the Sox are going to reset either this year or next, and if the reset doesn't come this season then I expect the team to be constructed in such a way that makes it easy to get back under next year. This is why they may not shy away from offering qualifying offers to both Eovaldi and Wacha, with the former possibly being more contingent on how healthy his arm looks.

Edited September 13, 2022 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[notin]

Given Blooms payroll flexibility he could take on payroll to bring in a high caliber arm at low cost without any top prospects involved.

 

E.G. someone give Miami a call and offer to take Soler/Garcia. Casas, Mayer, Bleis, Bello, Yorke, and Rafaela saved.

 

 

I don’t think you save all of the top prospects, but you can certainly mitigate how many go. Certainly that’s what happens if Miami valets their players similar to BTV…

[notin]

I was having this discussion on another forum and my opinion was changed on the matter. The tax on the overage is only the overage. So the Sox can spend another 20 million up to the next threshold ($253 million) That's $20 million over the cap and since it's their second consecutive year over they will be taxed at 30% That's 6 million dollars. $6 million dollars isn't scaring off John Henry, what's scaring him off is losing out on the revenue sharing for staying 3 years over. If that was this year, he'd be losing out on $318 million dollars. Ok that's not coming this year but it's coming next year if they stay over.

 

$6 million is peanuts, hundreds of millions are not. So, the reality is the Sox are going to reset either this year or next, and if the reset doesn't come this season then I expect the team to be constructed in such a way that makes it easy to get back under next year. This is why they may not shy away from offering qualifying offers to both Eovaldi and Wacha, with the former possibly being more contingent on how healthy his arm looks.

 

 

Trying to reset while being competitive will remain difficult for as long as Sale is on the roster and injured.

 

A healthy Sale helps competitiveness with immense potential. But an injured Sale sucks up roughly 15% of the reset limit and contributes nothing else…

[Hugh2]

I don’t think you save all of the top prospects, but you can certainly mitigate how many go. Certainly, that’s what happens if Miami valets their players similar to BTV…

 

They're desperate to shed payroll and have specifically targeted Soler and Garcia as contracts they need to shed. You take on one or two of those and you can pry away one of their young highly talented arms for next to nothing.

 

That's the type of Bloom strategy I envision. I personally would like to see Soler and see if he can bounce back with limited playing time split between RF/DH and see the Sox get a platoon bat to go along with him. You might be able to pry away a relief arm from them too (especially if you take both contracts on) I'm looking at Nardi and/or Bass.

 

So think of it as getting a set up guy and a potential young ACE for 20 million per year. And if Soler gets healthy now you have a RFer as well. That stinks of Bloom.

[Hugh2]

Trying to reset while being competitive will remain difficult for as long as Sale is on the roster and injured.

 

A healthy Sale helps competitiveness with immense potential. But an injured Sale sucks up roughly 15% of the reset limit and contributes nothing else…

 

It's closer to 12% and that number goes down every year as the tax threshold goes up. Still significant, but remember once you get under for a year you have two years to play with. So if they reset next year, they'll never have to worry about Sales money again, because the next time they'd need to reset he's going to be off contract.

[moonslav59]

I think we can easily assume John Henry is going to mandate Bloom gets under the cap this year, and if he doesn’t he has to get under next year.

 

I think it will be the 2024 reset.