A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[notin]

Would you do this accepted trade?

 

Rafaela, Yorke, Wikelman & Duran

for

Lopez, Luzardo, Berti & Garcia

 

 

I’m closer with that one

[Nick]

Don't we already have enough 'if's' in Sale and Paxton? That's $32M in dead money along with Price's $16M this year.

[mvp 78]

Don't we already have enough 'if's' in Sale and Paxton? That's $32M in dead money along with Price's $16M this year.

 

After having Pedroia's contract for all those years, dead money is just part of the budget now.

[harmony]

Would you do this accepted trade?

 

Rafaela, Yorke, Wikelman & Duran

for

Lopez, Luzardo, Berti & Garcia

Would the Miami Marlins even return a phone call?

 

A trade of Pablo Lopez or Jesus Luzardo would likely require a package headlined by Top 100 prospect coming off a promising season.

[moonslav59]

Would the Miami Marlins even return a phone call?

 

A trade of Pablo Lopez or Jesus Luzardo would likely require a package headlined by Top 100 prospect coming off a promising season.

 

Dumping Garcia would be huge for the Marlins, but I do NOT think they accept this deal. (Most Sox fans would say no, too.)

 

A lot might depend on how the Marlins' scouts view Wikelman. Their system is very good at spotting and developing SP'ers. Maybe they view him as the next Lazardo or Lopez, and might answer the call (then say no. LOL)

 

[moonslav59]

Don't we already have enough 'if's' in Sale and Paxton? That's $32M in dead money along with Price's $16M this year.

 

I don't think garcia is 100% "dead money." he may even earn every penny. Maybe the odds are better than with sale or Paxton earing theirs.

 

$13.25M is not a budget killer, ad signing a guy like Lopez or Luzardo would cost twice that.

 

In a sense, we aren't paying Garcia: we are paying for the pitcher(s).

 

Lopez made $2.65M, last year and Luzardo doesn't even reach his first arb until 2024.

 

We could DFA Garcia day one, and the deal might still work out better than signing a SP'er to $30M x 6.

Edited September 22, 2022 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Don't we already have enough 'if's' in Sale and Paxton? That's $32M in dead money along with Price's $16M this year.

 

Can't imagine why Price is retiring. With next year's pitch clock, he can still hold his arms straight up over his head on every single pitch, eye clouds suspiciously, blow smoke rings, and just count five Mississippis, instead of 10.

 

Before coming to a set.

 

And then.

 

Slowly.

 

Slinging.

 

His cesta.

 

... pelota in the dirt.

[notin]

Would the Miami Marlins even return a phone call?

 

A trade of Pablo Lopez or Jesus Luzardo would likely require a package headlined by Top 100 prospect coming off a promising season.

 

Like Ceddane Rafaela. As I suggested…

[notin]

Dumping Garcia would be huge for the Marlins, but I do NOT think they accept this deal. (Most Sox fans would say no, too.)

 

A lot might depend on how the Marlins' scouts view Wikelman. Their system is very good at spotting and developing SP'ers. Maybe they view him as the next Lazardo or Lopez, and might answer the call (then say no. LOL)

 

 

 

I wonder about that. How huge it would be to move Garcia.

 

The Marlins signed Garcia less than one year ago and were clearly prepared to pay him. So just a few months later and they’re just hand-wringing and fraught over what they’ve done?

 

At some point, if they were so desperate to get rid of Garcia and Soler, why did they ever sign them in the first place?

Edited September 22, 2022 by notin

[notin]

Or Boston could try a different type of deal where they take on money.

 

SD gets: Duran, Winckowski and Seabold (BTV surplus value: $12.1mill)

 

Boston gets: SS Ha-Seong Kim (2 years $17mill, $7mill AAV) and Blake Snell (1year $16.6mill) (BTV surplus value: $12.4mill)

 

San Diego is very likely to want to pare salary. They have two $300mill contracts on the books (Tatis,Machado) and they just acquired Juan Soto last month. Plus arb cases for players like Hader, Cronenworth, etc.

 

They’d probably like to dump even more if possible.

 

They probably don’t want Duran all that badly, but he does make very little money…

[moonslav59]

I wonder about that. How huge it would be to move Garcia.

 

The Marlins signed Garcia less than one year ago and were clearly prepared to pay him. So just a few months later and they’re just hand-wringing and fraught over what they’ve done?

 

At some point, if they were so desperate to get rid of Garcia and Soler, why did they ever sign them in the first place?

 

I'm sure they'd like to dump him about as much as you'd hate to have him and his salary join the Sox.

 

$13M is a big chunk of the Marlins' payroll, but not ours.

 

I think the -26 number BTV gives shows about how much he's (not) worth.

[moonslav59]

Or Boston could try a different type of deal where they take on money.

 

SD gets: Duran, Winckowski and Seabold (BTV surplus value: $12.1mill)

 

Boston gets: SS Ha-Seong Kim (2 years $17mill, $7mill AAV) and Blake Snell (1year $16.6mill) (BTV surplus value: $12.4mill)

 

San Diego is very likely to want to pare salary. They have two $300mill contracts on the books (Tatis,Machado) and they just acquired Juan Soto last month. Plus arb cases for players like Hader, Cronenworth, etc.

 

They’d probably like to dump even more if possible.

 

They probably don’t want Duran all that badly, but he does make very little money…

 

That type of deal is also possible. We'd also free up a 40 man slot. My guess is, however, the Padres face a bigger roster crunch than we do. They may be looking for a 2 for 1 type deal.

[notin]

That type of deal is also possible. We'd also free up a 40 man slot. My guess is, however, the Padres face a bigger roster crunch than we do. They may be looking for a 2 for 1 type deal.

 

Not so sure about their roster crunch because they unloaded a boatload of prospects to get Soto. But the particulars of who Boston sends are not etched in stone here…

[moonslav59]

Not so sure about their roster crunch because they unloaded a boatload of prospects to get Soto. But the particulars of who Boston sends are not etched in stone here…

 

The Padres usually have a good farm. I'm not sure how many rule 5 players they might need to protect.

[Maxbialystock]

Don't we already have enough 'if's' in Sale and Paxton? That's $32M in dead money along with Price's $16M this year.

 

Don't forget Eovaldi and his $17M, for which he has contributed a WAR of 1.0, which includes 18 starts, an ERA of 4.15, etc.

 

When you include Price, Sale, Eovaldi, and Paxton, that's over $70M invested in a combined WAR of Eovaldi's 1.0.

[notin]

Don't forget Eovaldi and his $17M, for which he has contributed a WAR of 1.0, which includes 18 starts, an ERA of 4.15, etc.

 

When you include Price, Sale, Eovaldi, and Paxton, that's over $70M invested in a combined WAR of Eovaldi's 1.0.

 

They’ve also combined for 106 IP, and for 2 starts since the trading deadline. (Bearing in mind that at the deadline, Sale was still expected back and even Paxton hasn’t been ruled out for the year.)

[moonslav59]

Don't forget Eovaldi and his $17M, for which he has contributed a WAR of 1.0, which includes 18 starts, an ERA of 4.15, etc.

 

When you include Price, Sale, Eovaldi, and Paxton, that's over $70M invested in a combined WAR of Eovaldi's 1.0.

 

That's nearly a third of the 2022 player tax line budget. Add $22M for a 0.7 bWAR from JD and $9M for a -0.1 bWAR for Barnes and we're looking at about $100M for 1.6 WAR. That's close to half the player salary budget!

[notin]

That's nearly a third of the 2022 player tax line budget. Add $22M for a 0.7 bWAR from JD and $9M for a -0.1 bWAR for Barnes and we're looking at about $100M for 1.6 WAR. That's close to half the player salary budget!

 

True, but Barnes was not an inherited problem.

 

Bloom did create the Barnes/Bradley financial issues for himself…

[moonslav59]

True, but Barnes was not an inherited problem.

 

Bloom did create the Barnes/Bradley financial issues for himself…

 

Yes, Barnes is not on DD. Bloom extended him, so subtract his $9M, and we still have about $90M of 1.7 WAR production from a few of DD's carry-overs..

[mvp 78]

True, but Barnes was not an inherited problem.

 

Bloom did create the Barnes/Bradley financial issues for himself…

 

There weren't too many of us on here complaining about the Barnes extension when he signed it.

 

I still have faith he can provide future value.

[notin]

There weren't too many of us on here complaining about the Barnes extension when he signed it.

 

I still have faith he can provide future value.

 

 

And there were many others who felt it would take more than what Liam Hendricks got (3 years $54mill) to extend Barnes...

[moonslav59]

There weren't too many of us on here complaining about the Barnes extension when he signed it.

 

I still have faith he can provide future value.

 

I liked the extension, a lot, and not just based on his first half of 2021. The guy was solid for 3-5 years before 2021.

 

He had a 30 IP rough patch- last 10 in 2021 and first 20 in '22. Almost every RP'er has had rough 30 IP stretches. He's done very well in his last 17 IP, but I'm not totally sold he's turned it around for good.

 

He may still earn that contract total, when all is said and done.

 

[mvp 78]

I liked the extension, a lot, and not just based on his first half of 2021. The guy was solid for 3-5 years before 2021.

 

He had a 30 IP rough patch- last 10 in 2021 and first 20 in '22. Almost every RP'er has had rough 30 IP stretches. He's done very well in his last 17 IP, but I'm not totally sold he's turned it around for good.

 

He may still earn that contract total, when all is said and done.

 

 

From 18-21 (even including his late season skid), he was a guy who generally had a low xBA/xSLG and high K%.

 

His curveball doesn't have quite the bite it used to have, but he's still getting movement on his FB. His velo is down a tick, but that could also just be from missing a lot of time due to injury. I'm looking to him to be more productive next season after a full offseason. I think he'll be a decent 7th/8th inning guy.

 

Since coming back from the IL on 8/4:

 

18.2 IP

18 K

6 BB

16 H

4 ER

302 BABIP (about career norm)

1.18 WHIP

1.93 ERA

2.48 FIP

4.30 xFIP (since he gave up 0 HR)

[moonslav59]

From 18-21 (even including his late season skid), he was a guy who generally had a low xBA/xSLG and high K%.

 

His curveball doesn't have quite the bite it used to have, but he's still getting movement on his FB. His velo is down a tick, but that could also just be from missing a lot of time due to injury. I'm looking to him to be more productive next season after a full offseason. I think he'll be a decent 7th/8th inning guy.

 

Since coming back from the IL on 8/4:

 

18.2 IP

18 K

6 BB

16 H

4 ER

302 BABIP (about career norm)

1.18 WHIP

1.93 ERA

2.48 FIP

4.30 xFIP (since he gave up 0 HR)

 

Since August 11th:

16.1 IP

15 H

3 ER

4 BB

18Ks

1.65 ERA

2.02 FIP

.558 OPS Against

 

This sample size is getting closer to the 30 IP bad stretch he had.

 

2017-2020

3.83 ERA

3.30 FIP

1.29 WHIP

13.2 K/9

2.9 K/BB

 

First 46 games 2021

45 IP

25 H

12 ER

11 BB 69K

2.40 ERA

2.35 FIP

.497 OPS Against

13.8 K/9

6.3 K/BB

 

Last 14 games of 2021

9.2 IP

16 H

11 ER

9 BB

15 K

10.24 ERA

7.20 FIP

1.095 OPS Against

 

First 23 games of 2022

19.1 IP

18 H

16 ER

14 BB

14 K

7.45 ERA

5.34 FIP

.759 OPS A

 

Total end of '21 + '22

29 IP

41 H

27 ER

23 BB

29 K

8.38 ERA

 

Should Barnes really be judged so harshly over less than 30 IP of horrific pitching?

 

 

[mvp 78]

All I'm saying is that he's not a DFA candidate. I think there's meat left on the bone. He probably wasn't a viable closer candidate anyway and was really just a setup guy at best.

[Old Red]

Since August 11th:

16.1 IP

15 H

3 ER

4 BB

18Ks

1.65 ERA

2.02 FIP

.558 OPS Against

 

This sample size is getting closer to the 30 IP bad stretch he had.

 

2017-2020

3.83 ERA

3.30 FIP

1.29 WHIP

13.2 K/9

2.9 K/BB

 

First 46 games 2021

45 IP

25 H

12 ER

11 BB 69K

2.40 ERA

2.35 FIP

.497 OPS Against

13.8 K/9

6.3 K/BB

 

Last 14 games of 2021

9.2 IP

16 H

11 ER

9 BB

15 K

10.24 ERA

7.20 FIP

1.095 OPS Against

 

First 23 games of 2022

19.1 IP

18 H

16 ER

14 BB

14 K

7.45 ERA

5.34 FIP

.759 OPS A

 

Total end of '21 + '22

29 IP

41 H

27 ER

23 BB

29 K

8.38 ERA

 

Should Barnes really be judged so harshly over less than 30 IP of horrific pitching?

 

 

 

Right, or wrong he is, but 30 innings is a lot of innings for a so called closer. He would probably be gone if not for the contract.

[moonslav59]

All I'm saying is that he's not a DFA candidate. I think there's meat left on the bone. He probably wasn't a viable closer candidate anyway and was really just a setup guy at best.

 

I'm certainly not thinking he will close for us in 2023, and he should not be planned to be so, but I think he can be a good set-up man. Unless he pitches his way out of that role, it is his, at this point in time.

[mvp 78]

Right, or wrong he is, but 30 innings is a lot of innings for a so called closer. He would probably be gone if not for the contract.

 

I'm not so sure. He has a long history of being a fairly reliable late inning guy a la Mike Timlin. I think it would be foolish to throw out a player everytime there was an injury or a downturn. There are enough commenters now saying "why can't Sox get guys like Daniel Bard" and he was wandering the wilderness for 10 years!

[moonslav59]

Right, or wrong he is, but 30 innings is a lot of innings for a so called closer. He would probably be gone if not for the contract.

 

I doubt it. Many pitchers stick around for longer than that, and many never had as good a record as Barnes beforehand.

 

Diekman (1.49 WHIP) pitched 38 inning for us, this year and was not DFA'd.

 

Sawamura (1.42) pitched over 50 innings.

 

Brasier (1.32 in 58 IP) has sucked for years and costs next to nothing.

 

Roblesd (1.58) almost lasted 26 IP.

 

In 2021, Andries s*** the bed for 37 IP (1.77 WHIP.)

 

I'm not sure why DHern (1.73 0ver keeps getting the call- over 85 IP!!!

 

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure why DHern (1.73 0ver keeps getting the call- over 85 IP!!!

 

 

Because he's on the 40 man roster and cheap. I think the Sox move on from him this offseason.